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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 19, 2025

[ Tuesday, March 18, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 20, 2025 ]

DAY 170 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/20/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.40°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.49°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.233
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 19

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 167 in
SWE DAY: 77
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.99 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 72.31 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -115

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-20 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025170-11531.5899623.3999627.49496167.399599583330.0300000000000860.250000000000094.584.8300000000001TF-0.4100418.5899677431.99012668614 72.3149742312130.2326264024591917 1112123WETL
2025-03-20 00:00:01FORECAST2025170-11428.421.70425.052172.205331610870.31496080.53496084.585.1149608TF-3.6-6.678434.6246319887174.8446788778690.14259000443046161113124.5WETL
2025-03-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025170-11429.53421.7425.637170.960002819540.2629922680.4829922684.585.062992268TF-2.466-5.46678434.1073522547474.2149941654550.1714673751995161112123WETL
2025-03-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025170-11430.9219.50825.214171.075417374670.3043308730.5243308734.585.104330873TF-1.08-4.0878434.1553615185274.2733096772330.21147744521932161113124.5WETL
2025-03-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025170-11429.318.89624.098171.564566115750.3401576640.5601576644.585.140157664TF-2.7-5.778434.3586777172874.5205580811750.16522242419433161113124.5WETL
2025-03-19 00:00:01FORECAST2025170-11528.95821.90225.43172.350876016610.3318899430.5718899434.585.151889943TF-3.04212.95877434.0635839477274.8112389402970.15636281449171113124.5WETL
2025-03-18 20:00:01FORECAST2025170-11529.10221.1125.106172.136406030030.2976379560.5376379564.585.117637956TF-2.89812.10277433.9743091288974.7027778828110.16005441760917171113124.5WETL
2025-03-18 16:00:01FORECAST2025170-11529.15620.7524.953172.178926848040.3098426870.5498426874.585.129842687TF-2.84412.15677433.9920126192274.7242789933980.16145330478613171113124.5WETL
2025-03-18 12:00:01FORECAST2025170-11528.6720.10224.386172.414980399280.346456880.586456884.585.16645688TF-3.3311.6777434.0902584620974.8436634042570.14914871446744171113124.5WETL
2025-03-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025170-11529.42619.9424.683172.208329999710.3059056770.5359056774.585.115905677TF-2.57412.42677434.004253467174.7391477023390.16856662024617171113124.5WETL
2025-03-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025170-11528.02219.52623.774172.1099613110.3204726140.5704726144.585.150472614TF-3.97811.02277433.9632979382574.6894064185470.13373912292699171113124.5WETL
2025-03-18 00:00:01FORECAST2025170-11528.16620.15624.161176.760138143260.3476379830.6276379834.585.207637983TF-3.8345.16677435.8882374176977.0476650609720.13706542893869171113124.5WETL
2025-03-17 20:00:01FORECAST2025170-11528.14819.43623.792174.841591174190.3507875910.6607875914.585.240787591TF-3.8525.14877435.0968095995676.07301850520.13664658568187171113124.5WETL
2025-03-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025170-11527.51820.08423.801175.239374583350.4326773990.7426773994.585.322677399TF-4.4824.51877435.2612179655276.2749036166650.1225348791861171113124.5WETL
2025-03-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025170-11527.520.3923.945176.630909439610.5137798050.8237798054.585.403779805TF-4.54.577435.8350498010676.9819412120170.122147251397171113124.5WETL
2025-03-17 08:00:01FORECAST2025170-11527.69820.04823.873176.288558245230.4972443630.7472443634.585.327244363TF-4.3025.69877435.694061361876.8078779134830.12645851582622171113124.5WETL
2025-03-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025170-11527.66219.52623.594176.799019629020.5145672070.8045672074.585.384567207TF-4.3385.66277435.9042367430677.067441708310.12566688875746171113124.5WETL
2025-03-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025170-11528.09419.77823.9366.68939347345270.4456695320.6656695324.575.235669532TF-3.9064.09477348.352661018582.33026801707750.135395295555991711134218WETL
2025-03-16 20:00:01FORECAST2025170-11528.41820.28224.353.01351721042540.4653545820.6553545824.595.245354582TF-3.5827.41877346.011794956441.04271249911140.143021104811051711134218WETL
2025-03-16 16:00:01FORECAST2025170-11527.78819.70623.7472.78146241120150.4468506350.5968506354.595.186850635TF-4.2125.78877345.863283451180.962005722334180.128452715662831711134218WETL
2025-03-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025170-11528.43619.18423.814.49872038844150.4114175450.6114175454.595.201417545TF-3.5646.43677346.960231995191.56087706965520.143453082500941711134218WETL
2025-03-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025170-11529.33618.82424.084.57706418051370.4153545550.6453545554.585.225354555TF-2.6648.33677347.010162342561.58828778433240.166173508800571711134218WETL
2025-03-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025170-11528.72418.7723.7474.97020458876790.4188978640.6288978644.655.278897864TF-3.2768.72477347.260570026461.72595607864370.150484191690321711134218WETL
2025-03-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025170-11527.91418.21223.06321.540551282170.5586617190.8886617194.975.858661719TF-4.0864.91477357.590736493387.70270159746450.13128099421704171113229WETL
2025-03-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025170-11528.02217.81622.9196.76577120237830.5783467690.9383467695.236.168346769TF-3.9787.02277348.401068364812.35720191522050.133739122926991711134218WETL
2025-03-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025170-11528.43618.2323.3336.44915900850820.582677480.922677485.186.10267748TF-3.5648.43677348.200341877572.24559937158530.143453082500941711134218WETL
2025-03-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025170-11527.24819.20223.22513.9367211274140.4161419570.7361419575.296.026141957TF-4.7527.24877352.904358559064.91832962988640.116810440466361711133213.5WETL
2025-03-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025170-11528.09418.80623.4514.3482078558340.4161419570.7961419575.396.186141957TF-3.9068.09477353.160288425485.0672172247550.13539529555599171113229WETL
2025-03-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025170-11527.80619.11223.45915.2113387333130.401575020.831575025.526.35157502TT-4.1948.80677353.696256396565.38019356475290.12885415311007171113229WETL
2025-03-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025170-11529.67818.26623.972170.513656975090.2948820490.5648820495.435.994882049TF-2.3225.67877433.2972486792173.8830984295380.17538423798107171113124.5WETL
2025-03-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025170-11531.0119.34625.178168.073271065440.3047245740.5747245745.446.014724574TF-0.999.0177432.2737765622972.6536676226330.21425141470818171113124.5WETL
2025-03-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025170-11532.21619.36425.79167.753971917350.2984253580.5684253585.456.018425358TF0.21610.21677432.1393959243872.493100088280.25340608901183172113126WETL
2025-03-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025170-11532.12619.4925.808167.102617481560.2129922410.3529922415.335.682992241TF0.12611.12677431.8649279234872.1657598545010.25036003116473172112124WETL
2025-03-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025170-11533.47619.88626.681166.178976849810.1854331710.2754331715.195.465433171TF1.47613.47677431.474944525971.7020648176450.29800368280323172112124WETL
2025-03-14 04:00:05FORECAST2025170-11533.69219.97626.834166.06651947810.1854331710.2854331715.15.385433171TF1.69215.69277431.4273997960671.6456466916170.30599356170553172112124WETL
2025-03-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025170-11530.77620.04825.412164.239186372680.1000000540.2000000544.85.000000054TF-1.2248.77677430.6529336031370.7300874239860.20708302673324171112123WETL
2025-03-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025170-11531.94618.7725.358158.605530956530.0996063530.1896063534.95.089606353TF-0.05399999999999812.94677428.2425094218367.9216305850050.24432653811772171112123WETL
2025-03-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025170-11531.80218.62625.214159.639928103060.1196851040.3396851044.915.249685104TF-0.19812.80277428.6876771451868.4356699581220.23955666419994171112123WETL
2025-03-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025170-11532.61219.11225.862167.57481452510.2960631520.8560631525.386.236063152TF0.61212.61277432.0639477755672.4030359114720.26703632626241172113126WETL
2025-03-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025170-11534.17818.33826.258169.187691247490.2956694510.8856694515.756.635669451TT2.17813.17877432.7419397553873.2146096931740.32430707375791172113126WETL
2025-03-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025170-11533.817.97825.889169.543273031160.3023623681.0023623685.776.772362368TT1.813.877432.8910394954973.3937637019260.31002368834069172114128WETL
2025-03-13 00:00:03FORECAST2025170-11534.26818.37426.321169.17289364340.437008110.817008115.676.48700811TT2.26811.26877432.7357320220173.2071559690590.32774735201632172113126WETL
2025-03-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025170-11533.45817.97825.718164.504846265780.4366144090.8266144096.036.856614409TT1.45812.45877430.7657498639570.863053457930.2973421682428172113126WETL
2025-03-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025170-11533.49418.10425.799164.177509514970.515748310.815748315.966.77574831TT1.49412.49477430.6267307559970.6992241860930.29866586665406172113126WETL
2025-03-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025170-11534.7919.68827.239173.347414772380.3889765880.8989765886.957.848976588TT2.799.7977434.4777636580375.3155971062060.34798222066339172113126WETL
2025-03-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025170-11532.84620.40826.627172.947490659860.3933072990.9133072996.827.733307299TT0.8468.84677434.3116738228875.1131141519510.27526083375687172113126WETL
2025-03-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025170-11532.88221.16427.023173.773109429930.5019687750.9519687756.927.871968775TT0.8828.88277434.6543708125775.5312415434110.2765371087691172113126WETL
2025-03-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025170-11533.40420.89427.149178.397810134620.0893701270.4393701277.547.979370127TT1.4048.40477436.5607559144777.8814828458550.29536165753811172112124WETL
2025-03-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025170-11534.48423.95429.219174.611284190070.0893701270.4393701277.47.839370127TT2.4848.48477435.0015451704675.956178426880.33606340248001172112124WETL
2025-03-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025170-11534.86223.3629.111175.687390915050.0070866180.4570866187.568.017086618TT2.8624.86277435.4461893699176.50240489430.35080914039995172112124WETL
2025-03-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025170-11533.81822.78428.301173.6178263512300.466.867.32TT1.8183.81877434.5899709320675.4525661072710.31069761663281172112124WETL
2025-03-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025170-11535.7823.39629.588172.9961472936400.466.927.38TT3.7814.7877434.331890103175.13774363460.38752834062544172112124WETL
2025-03-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025170-11537.38224.31430.848172.4336856352200.536.87.33TT5.38218.38277434.0980410908774.8531251523290.45388634697159172113126WETL
2025-03-11 00:00:03FORECAST2025170-11537.20227.532.351178.962720036120.2188977561.0588977566.647.698897756TT5.20219.20277436.7920909334778.1695006837180.44632952838805172114128WETL
2025-03-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025170-11537.20227.532.351178.57245808420.2188977561.0588977566.687.738897756TT5.20222.20277436.632311065377.9705050659170.44632952838805172114128WETL
2025-03-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025170-11538.22828.41833.323178.885194580930.2188977561.1988977566.77.898897756TT6.22829.22877436.7603633012378.1299625743780.48958226734678172114128WETL
2025-03-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025170-11535.25824.42229.84173.333169496710.409449041.199449045.456.64944904TT3.25821.25877434.4718504442475.3083828946030.36650136720137172114128WETL
2025-03-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025170-11535.25824.42229.84173.679093903710.409449041.199449045.556.74944904TT3.25824.25877434.6153831933675.4836059496380.36650136720137172114128WETL
2025-03-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025170-11536.524.49430.497167.568382503310.1283465260.8883465265.386.268346526TF4.526.577432.0612384342372.3998028668020.41706842777384172113126WETL
2025-03-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025170-11530.03820.55225.295174.0210458735100.945.396.33TT-1.96221.03877434.7571437815575.6568928618470.18542160997356171113124.5WETL
2025-03-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025170-11527.84220.55224.197170.5103169546600.945.386.32TT-4.15812.84277433.2958522408473.8814131007240.12965962877186171113124.5WETL
2025-03-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025170-11528.72424.27826.501171.1756271200300.945.526.46TT-3.27612.72477433.5737798858674.2172636747620.15048419169032171113124.5WETL
2025-03-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025170-11528.77826.88827.833166.7874947192400.634.945.57TF-3.22215.77877431.7319782897472.0074950491260.15182758925692171113124.5WETL
2025-03-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025170-11528.77826.88827.833166.8484933507600.6755.67TF-3.22216.77877431.7577217910772.0381253733960.15182758925692171113124.5WETL
2025-03-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025170-11528.92227.96828.445169.7467511240100.645.376.01TF-3.07820.92277432.9762997606973.4963201980730.15544872336609171113124.5WETL