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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 20, 2025

[ Wednesday, March 19, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, March 21, 2025 ]

DAY 171 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/21/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.36°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.21°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.130
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -7

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.61 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.64 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.80 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.44 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 171 in
SWE DAY: 78
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.10 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 74.21 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -114

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-21 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025171-11428.3600422.0600425.21004170.952742083330.610000000000010.640000000000014.85.44TF-3.63996-6.6399678434.10433151866 74.2113258233670.1298609752209717 1113124.5WETL
2025-03-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025171-11326.00619.70622.856176.948319088591.2326778311.2626778314.725.982677831TF-5.994-11.99479437.1916933976377.3603352662040.083302091715507161114126WETL
2025-03-20 12:00:02FORECAST2025171-11326.43819.83223.135172.014242706651.2673235191.2973235194.726.017323519TF-5.562-11.56279435.164934158174.8545666016930.090746820910571161114126WETL
2025-03-20 08:00:02FORECAST2025171-11326.70819.83223.27172.031663004321.2728353331.3028353334.726.022835333TF-5.292-11.29279435.1721346277574.8633860131520.095643217730739161114126WETL
2025-03-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025171-11326.43820.19223.315172.523372511341.2704731271.3004731274.726.020473127TF-5.562-11.56279435.375245454275.1124056537130.090746820910571161114126WETL
2025-03-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025171-11426.49219.74223.117177.824920367771.3157487421.6257487424.86.425748742TT-5.508-12.50878436.9386306482877.6985772006330.091710964688096171115127.5WETL
2025-03-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025171-11426.90620.58823.747175.327429582761.2779534461.5379534464.86.337953446TT-5.094-10.09478435.9143062944976.4277348409660.099355144520366171115127.5WETL
2025-03-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025171-11426.58220.6623.621175.40306219761.2889770741.5489770744.86.348977074TT-5.418-10.41878435.9454218656676.466161946260.093334645218841171115127.5WETL
2025-03-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025171-11427.53621.0224.278175.993366073331.2295282231.4895282234.86.289528223TT-4.464-9.46478436.1880700447976.7662066882110.11186208880369171114126WETL
2025-03-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025171-11427.73421.27224.503175.869004387621.1767722891.4767722894.86.276772289TT-4.266-8.26678436.1369806249476.7029765591290.11601532140243171114126WETL
2025-03-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025171-11426.27620.31823.297176.479224074771.1401580961.4801580964.86.280158096TT-5.724-11.72478436.3875123048577.0133295674780.087899390258961171114126WETL
2025-03-19 00:00:01FORECAST2025171-11426.43820.5723.504177.632351064591.1708667741.5208667744.86.320866774TT-5.562-14.56278436.8598809950177.6004477469410.090746820910571171115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 20:00:01FORECAST2025171-11426.49220.19223.342177.336642345811.1440951061.4640951064.86.264095106TT-5.508-15.50878436.7388783012877.4498062598230.091710964688096171114126WETL
2025-03-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025171-11426.5120.28223.396177.171734209541.1039376041.4339376044.86.233937604TT-5.49-15.4978436.6713591397577.3658219784260.092034020879498171114126WETL
2025-03-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025171-11426.5119.63423.072177.146089405151.0429139491.4129139494.86.212913949TT-5.49-15.4978436.6608567182377.3527631639350.092034020879498171114126WETL
2025-03-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025171-11426.27619.77823.027177.020169495611.0594493911.3794493914.86.179449391TT-5.724-15.72478436.6092782957677.288648447270.087899390258961171114126WETL
2025-03-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025171-11426.47420.08423.279176.916681713581.0444887531.3944887534.86.194488753TT-5.526-16.52678436.5668760107177.2359630498790.091388746589571171114126WETL
2025-03-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025171-11426.36620.26423.315181.388549177030.9385831841.3485831844.86.148583184TT-5.634-22.63478438.3890172687679.5187478175270.089472985082412171114126WETL
2025-03-17 20:00:01FORECAST2025171-11426.20419.86823.036179.566088049880.9464572041.3764572044.816.186457204TT-5.796-22.79678437.6489211027278.5869047016640.086655398425396171114126WETL
2025-03-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025171-11425.9720.24623.108179.839768978110.9216540411.4316540414.816.241654041TT-6.03-23.0378437.7602808590178.7267077774760.082702988078252171114126WETL
2025-03-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025171-11426.2419.72422.982180.763674079610.8059059471.3959059474.816.205905947TT-5.76-23.7678438.1356431666379.1990086040330.087275745153067171114126WETL
2025-03-17 08:00:01FORECAST2025171-11426.25819.6722.964180.201236522050.7586618271.3386618274.756.088661827TT-5.742-21.74278437.9072420739778.911426503690.087587154914031171114126WETL
2025-03-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025171-11426.54619.9423.243180.867805241840.7838586911.3538586914.816.163858691TT-5.454-21.45478438.1778941571679.2522740216990.092682651277871171114126WETL
2025-03-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025171-11425.9720.01222.99110.3487188149680.6594491751.1694491754.735.899449175TF-6.03-24.0378351.599103196273.6386002545730.0827029880782521711143218WETL
2025-03-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025171-11425.66419.77822.7216.0294106971520.5425199781.0525199784.745.792519978TF-6.336-21.33678348.882048350882.10355315437110.0777404624758211711144224WETL
2025-03-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025171-11425.35820.06622.7126.57016498633040.6830712351.1630712354.715.873071235TF-6.642-22.64278349.223843681092.29445827014520.0730065583574811711144224WETL
2025-03-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025171-11424.94419.72422.3347.86609433160410.6035436331.0535436334.755.803543633TF-7.056-23.05678350.041055441612.7534559620380.066955932454191711143218WETL
2025-03-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025171-11424.96220.17422.5687.90600259813660.606299541.076299544.765.83629954TF-7.038-21.03878350.066178885132.76762411978560.067210702441761711143218WETL
2025-03-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025171-11424.83619.99422.4158.25297484339560.5842522841.0642522844.85.864252284TF-7.164-20.16478350.284500968042.89088917452070.0654429178518531711143218WETL
2025-03-16 00:00:03FORECAST2025171-11425.48419.95822.72125.3176320377390.6354334141.2854334145.216.495433414TT-6.516-23.51678360.787928086219.13429600694480.0749284729027011711142212WETL
2025-03-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025171-11425.57420.4262310.6221652241180.6511814541.3211814545.56.821181454TT-6.426-21.42678351.770113044953.73656026167010.0763246473863121711143218WETL
2025-03-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025171-11425.53820.33622.93710.0380902670650.6043310351.2543310355.456.704331035TT-6.462-20.46278351.404695964643.52743205836350.0757638285084851711143218WETL
2025-03-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025171-11427.0519.05823.05417.4405679196210.5732286561.0632286565.546.603228656TT-4.95-19.9578355.996073476046.20877369857740.102119911944091711142212WETL
2025-03-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025171-11428.6720.5724.6217.7903786165350.5799215731.1099215735.666.769921573TT-3.33-17.3378356.210914292876.33712703261240.137122408411941711142212WETL
2025-03-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025171-11426.619.8523.22518.780669960190.5795278721.1195278725.816.929527872TT-5.4-18.478356.818080585866.70128260731170.0936619058234811711142212WETL
2025-03-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025171-11426.83421.7424.287173.790652130950.5181105160.8481105165.666.508110516TT-5.166-21.16678435.280773285475.6477294493330.097993392853835171113124.5WETL
2025-03-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025171-11427.08622.53224.809171.260932892430.5181105160.8581105165.676.528110516TT-4.914-17.91478434.2325013579174.3670632747690.10281973900809171113124.5WETL
2025-03-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025171-11427.28422.20824.746170.523466597130.4555120570.8155120575.666.475512057TT-4.716-16.71678433.9256379145373.9945040225570.10673092849793171113124.5WETL
2025-03-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025171-11428.72422.89225.808169.310462630940.3850395780.6450395785.426.065039578TF-3.276-14.27678433.4196488901373.3824812669280.13841522003088171113124.5WETL
2025-03-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025171-11429.4824.31426.897168.327695454150.3885828870.6285828875.235.858582887TF-2.52-11.5278433.0085554506372.8873322509360.15738448989794171113124.5WETL
2025-03-14 04:00:05FORECAST2025171-11429.80424.31427.059167.676235105490.2814962150.5114962155.165.671496215TF-2.196-8.19678432.7354821800972.5594564485150.16601276649177171113124.5WETL
2025-03-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025171-11429.2121.95625.583167.639929886340.5346459580.6546459584.885.534645958TF-2.79-15.7978432.7202507894272.541192502740.15042296162461171113124.5WETL
2025-03-13 20:00:03FORECAST2025171-11428.11221.16424.638162.12718668980.5421262770.6621262774.975.632126277TF-3.888-12.88878430.3910742640769.7780940468340.1242446593229171113124.5WETL
2025-03-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025171-11427.64422.124.872163.895793429950.6531499590.8531499595.055.903149959TF-4.356-13.35678431.1418804271170.662340573480.114114155203171113124.5WETL
2025-03-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025171-11429.76823.01826.393170.140344513650.4007876180.7907876185.856.640787618TT-2.232-11.23278433.7659918628873.8010952938570.16503928737549171113124.5WETL
2025-03-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025171-11429.64222.47826.06171.750871797010.4098427410.7998427416.257.049842741TT-2.358-11.35878434.4360498497174.6147703017380.16166120621303171113124.5WETL
2025-03-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025171-11429.44421.54225.493172.130437161030.4125986480.8525986486.337.182598648TT-2.556-10.55678434.5935688502974.8067809935710.15644427461783171113124.5WETL
2025-03-13 00:00:04FORECAST2025171-11428.8520.89424.872171.913642662310.3771655580.8971655585.976.867165558TT-3.15-14.1578434.5036180893874.6970997356970.14146390914342171113124.5WETL
2025-03-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025171-11429.55220.80425.178167.385261217660.3732285480.8932285486.347.233228548TT-2.448-12.44878432.613368312972.4131016613050.15927601086025171113124.5WETL
2025-03-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025171-11429.5721.00225.286167.065397596730.370078940.980078946.177.15007894TT-2.43-12.4378432.4790260283872.2522804356780.15975120161724171113124.5WETL
2025-03-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025171-11429.62423.5426.582175.018153699880.2311024870.7011024877.388.081102487TT-2.376-14.37678435.7870066984376.2706373187560.16118231889033171113124.5WETL
2025-03-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025171-11429.69623.55826.627174.617441410440.2314961880.7014961887.267.961496188TT-2.304-15.30478435.6219226021576.0671855470850.1631034122477171113124.5WETL
2025-03-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025171-11429.55221.45225.502175.705100500350.2484253310.8484253317.278.118425331TT-2.448-15.44878436.0696220919676.6196567748170.15927601086025171113124.5WETL
2025-03-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025171-11429.324.51226.906183.959489060710.6641735870.7841735877.868.644173587TT-2.7-16.778439.4272602131780.8368142681640.15272037610913171113124.5WETL
2025-03-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025171-11429.17425.71827.446180.037890236010.6641735870.7841735877.728.504173587TT-2.826-16.82678437.8408473754478.8279424206230.14951045894317171113124.5WETL
2025-03-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025171-11429.0325.4327.23181.056682381380.641732630.721732637.948.66173263TT-2.97-19.9778438.254502129879.3489061943250.14589735429913171113124.5WETL
2025-03-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025171-11436.26624.47630.371176.476350382220.3716537440.4216537447.277.691653744TT4.266-13.73478436.3863333919777.0118674736930.39439073974412172112124WETL
2025-03-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025171-11436.26625.82631.046175.755098594170.3716537440.4216537447.337.751653744TT4.266-2.73478436.090172461576.6450712569190.39439073974412172112124WETL
2025-03-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025171-11435.63629.17432.405177.790680362250.795276020.865276027.268.12527602TT3.636-0.36478436.9246312913677.6811274643150.36830921415322172113126WETL
2025-03-11 00:00:03FORECAST2025171-11431.04627.71629.381182.005987007680.3456694780.6856694787.368.045669478TT-0.954-3.95478438.638981021979.8349206809340.20184632084697171113124.5WETL
2025-03-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025171-11431.04627.71629.381181.615725055770.3456694780.6856694787.48.085669478TT-0.954-0.95478438.4810328195779.6350506987280.20184632084697171113124.5WETL
2025-03-10 16:00:03FORECAST2025171-11433.24229.42631.334182.216429605760.4031498240.7531498247.558.303149824TT1.2428.24278438.7240871428579.9427367412150.27544624201314172113126WETL
2025-03-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025171-11432.19826.3329.264173.3320870967100.466.196.65TT0.198-0.80278435.0912513456875.4152746732660.23889613415806171112123WETL
2025-03-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025171-11432.19826.3329.264173.6780115037100.466.296.75TT0.1982.19878435.2342400984675.590617358630.23889613415806171112123WETL
2025-03-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025171-11436.33835.81636.077167.638976092530.0267716680.2167716686.086.296771668TF4.3389.33878432.7198506184872.5407126925960.39740434815933172112124WETL