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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 18, 2025

[ Monday, March 17, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, March 19, 2025 ]

DAY 169 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/19/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.77°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.210
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 41

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.58 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.80 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 170 in
SWE DAY: 76
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.59 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 73.68 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -116

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-19 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025169-11629.7699816.2300223170.3261029166700.584.224.8TF-2.2300240.7699876432.59183632934 73.6816816355410.2095534569012117 1113124.5WETL
2025-03-19 00:00:01FORECAST2025169-11526.79815.20621.002171.092038631160.0200787510.6000787514.224.820078751TF-5.20215.79877433.5388872996174.1750520539740.12912332171512161113124.5WETL
2025-03-18 12:00:01FORECAST2025169-11526.07814.52220.3171.089387862210.0185039470.5985039474.224.818503947TF-5.92215.07877433.5377806602274.1737135082980.11338174709567161113124.5WETL
2025-03-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025169-11526.16814.48620.327171.068019454860.0145669370.5945669374.224.814566937TF-5.83215.16877433.5288595346374.1629233771110.11527122313199161113124.5WETL
2025-03-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025169-11525.57412.00218.788170.868246660170.0251968640.6051968644.224.825196864TF-6.42614.57477433.4454326895474.0620611065210.10320712214775161113124.5WETL
2025-03-18 00:00:01FORECAST2025169-11625.98812.34419.166175.343353723090.0562992430.6362992434.224.856299243TF-6.01230.98876434.6851267387876.2191479359240.11151439600402171113124.5WETL
2025-03-17 20:00:01FORECAST2025169-11625.7913.02819.409173.385891345970.0779527980.6679527984.224.887952798TF-6.2130.7976433.8716091149375.22721567610.10748369035239171113124.5WETL
2025-03-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025169-11625.73613.58619.661173.393868488940.0799213030.6699213034.224.889921303TF-6.26430.73676433.8749326151875.2312530065240.10640280018132171113124.5WETL
2025-03-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025169-11625.57414.25219.913174.423563799840.0755905920.6655905924.224.885590592TF-6.42630.57476434.3033675416275.7527411368830.10320712214775171113124.5WETL
2025-03-17 08:00:01FORECAST2025169-11625.89813.89219.895174.173063586760.0838583130.6138583134.224.833858313TF-6.10231.89876434.1992427014775.6258123083680.10966908698848171113124.5WETL
2025-03-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025169-11626.07813.98220.03174.54295899560.0645669640.6545669644.224.874566964TF-5.92232.07876434.3529729554575.8132531481780.11338174709567171113124.5WETL
2025-03-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025169-11626.63614.4520.5434.61934439927240.0578740470.5678740474.224.787874047TF-5.36429.63676346.082011866191.5986720032030.125456098596981711134218WETL
2025-03-16 20:00:01FORECAST2025169-11626.56414.5420.5520.856864414959530.0421260070.5621260074.224.782126007TF-5.43632.56476343.663927059670.294473389802680.123849708969061711134218WETL
2025-03-16 16:00:01FORECAST2025169-11626.38415.18820.7860.688005465430740.0279527710.5179527714.224.737952771TF-5.61632.38476343.554861380150.236367622304840.119896705062541711134218WETL
2025-03-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025169-11626.31214.9920.6512.57683146143140.0425197080.5725197084.224.792519708TF-5.68832.31276344.772189729820.888419825522410.118340602227561711134218WETL
2025-03-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025169-11625.84415.09820.4712.64608639096210.0492126250.5892126254.224.809212625TF-6.15632.84476344.816712899330.912414811379190.108572446114671711134218WETL
2025-03-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025169-11626.00615.22420.6152.97150625167590.0649606650.6449606654.224.864960665TF-5.99434.00676345.025816621581.02524637108060.111886100158471711134218WETL
2025-03-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025169-11625.91615.7120.81318.711598364930.0913386320.7213386324.585.301338632TF-6.08430.91676354.936255610426.64142466013420.11003638951011171113229WETL
2025-03-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025169-11626.38415.7121.0473.83203739274560.0889764260.8189764264.775.588976426TF-5.61633.38476345.577932526651.32426755954990.119896705062541711134218WETL
2025-03-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025169-11626.54616.3421.4433.49218846242920.0716535820.7516535824.775.521653582TF-5.45433.54676345.360029974461.2060623120610.123450364348271711134218WETL
2025-03-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025169-11627.35617.58222.46911.8315952480280.0720472830.8420472834.775.612047283TF-4.64434.35676350.653098126854.14878552950390.142318719116711711133213.5WETL
2025-03-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025169-11626.61817.5122.06412.29405336580.1106299810.9106299814.865.770629981TF-5.38233.61876350.943354615154.31451633001150.125053148527941711133213.5WETL
2025-03-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025169-11626.20417.56421.88413.1897716076370.1366142471.0966142474.855.946614247TF-5.79635.20476351.504573025664.63626503724840.11603322648031711143218WETL
2025-03-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025169-11625.62816.05220.84168.965017123330.0413386051.0413386054.665.701338605TF-6.37229.62876432.0193508867872.9961570201950.10426453657189171114126WETL
2025-03-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025169-11625.75416.66421.209166.533635668380.0385826981.0085826984.75.708582698TF-6.24631.75476430.9917504719471.7746231491740.10676222417161171114126WETL
2025-03-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025169-11625.71817.5121.614166.278007940260.0598425521.0298425524.695.719842552TF-6.28231.71876430.8833426848271.6464238762720.10604424793622171114126WETL
2025-03-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025169-11626.18617.09621.641166.069458175530.0464567180.7164567184.755.466456718TF-5.81433.18676430.7948477854371.5418669565370.11565178039846171113124.5WETL
2025-03-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025169-11626.45618.06822.262165.316429449070.0468504190.6168504194.665.276850419TF-5.54434.45676430.4749210730971.1645769191740.1214671325644171113124.5WETL
2025-03-14 04:00:05FORECAST2025169-11626.74417.97822.361165.195999296920.0429134090.5329134094.675.202913409TF-5.25635.74476430.4236991488671.1042731019730.12789276983747171113124.5WETL
2025-03-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025169-11626.49216.39421.443163.667089768260.0220472560.5420472564.364.902047256TF-5.50832.49276429.7720521299870.3395410358490.12225772909093171113124.5WETL
2025-03-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025169-11626.63613.76620.201158.038486167830.0216535550.5416535554.454.991653555TF-5.36434.63676427.3511208027967.5379241937970.12545609859698171113124.5WETL
2025-03-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025169-11626.52814.9920.759158.952965196450.0771653960.7671653964.365.127165396TF-5.47234.52876427.7468080467167.9916234923390.12305191983741171113124.5WETL
2025-03-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025169-11627.35616.7922.073166.015094861980.0885827251.6385827254.35.938582725TT-4.64434.35676430.7717718422271.5146165662480.14231871911671171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025169-11626.29417.74422.019167.730865450880.0921260341.9721260344.376.342126034TT-5.70633.29476431.4985414342472.375623795560.11795381050011171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025169-11626.3317.81622.073167.985302971570.1354331441.9854331444.486.465433144TT-5.6734.3376431.6060471789372.5034725997130.11872828697158171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 00:00:03FORECAST2025169-11626.58218.3222.451166.791035920660.0771653961.1671653964.886.047165396TF-5.41830.58276431.1008388601171.9037554997450.1242499542063171114126WETL
2025-03-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025169-11626.54617.90622.226161.9294696440.0779527981.1479527985.276.417952798TT-5.45432.54676429.0283702322769.4723364539430.12345036434827171114126WETL
2025-03-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025169-11627.517.97822.739161.106693950290.0893701270.9893701275.276.259370127TT-4.533.576428.6750847842969.0624256884560.1458666923964171113124.5WETL
2025-03-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025169-11627.5919.20223.396171.215985218870.0771653962.1371653965.327.457165396TT-4.4128.5976432.9650605863774.1305394136430.14811402707753171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025169-11629.28219.09424.188170.705697843490.0779527982.1679527985.177.337952798TT-2.71830.28276432.7511448729973.8730861781140.19464104546511171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025169-11629.4819.02224.251170.928049022940.0964567452.0364567455.337.366456745TT-2.5230.4876432.8443899879173.9852471111590.20061251260354171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025169-11629.4816.19622.838177.830701119710.0346456882.2546456885.647.894645688TT-2.5229.4876435.7130453044677.4831563334970.20061251260354171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025169-11630.03819.05824.548174.119196970560.0346456882.2546456885.57.754645688TT-1.96228.03876434.1768434342675.5985233219860.21802167050104171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025169-11629.15618.24823.702175.726147304250.0685039742.5485039745.468.008503974TT-2.84424.15676434.8437427342876.4134155900540.19089783400891171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025169-11628.79619.34624.071173.658268751230.0496063262.2696063265.057.319606326TT-3.20423.79676433.985051042575.3650926279560.18044809116336171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025169-11630.30820.15625.232173.115408093640.0496063262.2696063265.117.379606326TT-1.69233.30876433.758878385975.0903452460140.22674819641246171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025169-11630.63220.67825.655172.652428835220.0677165722.4277165724.97.327716572TT-1.36834.63276433.565740251874.8561781142150.23747498305778171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 00:00:03FORECAST2025169-11632.48620.82226.654177.746978653580.122047312.752047314.737.48204731TT0.48636.48676435.6785517597577.4405462394610.303859344012731721151210WETL
2025-03-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025169-11632.48622.78427.635177.356716701660.122047312.752047314.777.52204731TT0.48639.48676435.517667531577.2419835789530.303859344012731721151210WETL
2025-03-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025169-11632.91825.64629.282177.778347757550.1251969182.9651969184.717.675196918TT0.91844.91876435.6914766481877.4565108505620.320438013160171721151210WETL
2025-03-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025169-11631.42424.40427.914171.110312490340.0515748312.5515748313.696.241574831TT-0.57640.42476432.9207846669274.0772107479210.264828110277541721151210WETL
2025-03-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025169-11631.42424.40427.914171.456236897340.0515748312.5715748313.776.341574831TT-0.57643.42476433.0656796583274.2518117636040.264828110277541721151210WETL
2025-03-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025169-11631.02823.28827.158167.244448901410.0574803462.2574803463.886.137480346TT-0.97244.02876431.2928257045372.1313309500870.250954621265481721151210WETL
2025-03-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025169-11633.36822.38827.878174.021045873510.1283465262.1383465264.196.328346526TT1.36845.36876434.1360215430875.5488045202930.338096231102891721151210WETL
2025-03-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025169-11632.97221.07427.023170.510316954660.1283465262.1383465264.186.318346526TT0.97238.97276432.6691665306273.7745567216430.322536672610731721151210WETL
2025-03-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025169-11633.22420.58826.906171.175627120030.1000000542.1300000544.336.460000054TT1.22438.22476432.9481523098774.1101714820980.332404399495241721151210WETL
2025-03-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025169-11632.55821.6527.104166.787494719240.0870079211.9170079213.655.567007921TF0.55840.55876431.0993385530271.9019786523780.306595838762631721151210WETL
2025-03-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025169-11632.57621.8327.203166.848493350760.0948819411.9848819413.695.674881941TF0.57641.57676431.1251800657671.9325867395460.307281657195671721151210WETL
2025-03-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025169-11634.9722.85628.913169.746751124010.1003937551.9203937554.096.010393755TT2.9745.9776432.3483974409473.3897358192740.403652091843251721151210WETL
2025-03-08 23:00:02FORECAST2025169-11625.03421.27223.153176.049146306740.0763779942.0963779944.216.306377994TT-6.96632.03476434.9774620753976.5774108610460.093057421185451171115127.5WETL
2025-03-08 19:00:03FORECAST2025169-11623.61220.13821.875176.844802824320.0771653962.0971653964.276.367165396TT-8.38828.61276435.3063907494176.9816728402480.069872524986826171115127.5WETL
2025-03-08 15:00:03FORECAST2025169-11622.87420.3921.632177.35507934020.1055118681.8555118684.346.195511868TT-9.12625.87476435.5169921985177.2411507053730.059733666650084171115127.5WETL
2025-03-08 11:00:03FORECAST2025169-11621.59613.87417.735174.2237135529601.474.536TT-10.40423.59676434.2203015988975.6514734446470.044933290145113171114126WETL
2025-03-08 07:00:04FORECAST2025169-11621.59613.87417.735173.4507562984701.464.455.91TF-10.40427.59676433.89863171175.2600458271450.044933290145113171114126WETL
2025-03-08 03:00:05FORECAST2025169-11625.0721.41623.243172.9855986925401.793.955.74TF-6.9328.0776433.7047495286675.0246757530110.093710304379732171115127.5WETL