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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 11, 2024

[ Tuesday, December 10, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 12, 2024 ]

DAY 72 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/10/2024 11:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.49°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.80°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.567
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 155

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.76 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 70 in
SWE DAY: 21
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 335.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 23.43 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 152

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-12-10 23:00:02FORECAST20257215235.11426.49230.80369.942808148448004.764.76TF3.114155.11421334.9970482525823.4306342762270.56706622871485163211123WETL
2024-12-10 19:00:01FORECAST20257215235.0626.81630.93869.933057412092004.764.76TF3.06155.0621334.9905368886323.426912448740.56475296516606163211123WETL
2024-12-10 15:00:02FORECAST20257215235.627.21231.40669.9175837087340.0007874020.0007874024.764.760787402TF3.6155.621334.9802035006423.4210064190240.58777304983187163211123WETL
2024-12-10 11:00:01FORECAST20257215235.27627.08631.18169.5254067925080.0019685050.0019685054.764.761968505TF3.276155.27621334.7181708825923.2714169914570.57399193552595163211123WETL
2024-12-10 07:00:03FORECAST20257215234.89827.3231.10969.4661734616630.0051181130.0051181134.764.765118113TF2.898153.89821334.6785714974123.248839701540.55780017874636163211123WETL
2024-12-10 03:00:03FORECAST20257215235.6928.90432.29769.2762718020550.0066929170.0066929174.764.766692917TF3.69155.6921334.5515759589723.1764859079390.59158277334791163211123WETL
2024-12-09 23:00:02FORECAST20257215235.49228.23831.86569.1017259038350.1972442010.1972442014.764.957244201TF3.492148.49221334.4347954502323.1100215679070.58319047266657163212126WETL
2024-12-09 19:00:01FORECAST20257215236.15829.24632.70268.9686501497110.1866142740.1866142744.764.946614274TF4.158148.15821334.3457258875823.0593733977920.61124642710458163212126WETL
2024-12-09 15:00:01FORECAST20257215235.88828.68832.28869.0043985422370.2011812110.2011812114.764.961181211TF3.888147.88821334.3696557709123.0729769872460.59993328764142163212126WETL
2024-12-09 11:00:03FORECAST20257215236.66228.77832.7268.412946074620.051181130.051181134.764.81118113TF4.662149.66221333.9734594368122.8481082708050.63210717728792163211123WETL
2024-12-09 07:00:03FORECAST20257215236.80629.7533.27868.403218718122004.764.76TF4.806149.80621333.9669383950822.844413531660.63799954642969163211123WETL
2024-12-09 03:00:04FORECAST20257215236.3228.88632.60368.709875979331004.764.76TF4.32146.3221334.1724383059122.960946791710.6179899803438163211123WETL
2024-12-08 23:00:02FORECAST20257215236.30230.25433.27858.537244229825004.894.89TF4.302144.30221327.2693187333819.1574440396240.61724241976906163211123WETL
2024-12-08 19:00:01FORECAST20257215236.5930.05633.32358.498132490738004.894.89TF4.59144.5921327.2424319129419.1430711386340.62914919715492163211123WETL
2024-12-08 15:00:02FORECAST20257215236.78830.30833.54858.474162655854004.894.89TF4.788143.78821327.2259528635619.134263592960.63726475249249163211123WETL
2024-12-08 11:00:02FORECAST20257215238.15630.18234.16963.9706795870310.0019685050.0019685054.894.891968505TF6.156146.15621330.9786179309221.1729271178180.69149565496794163211123WETL
2024-12-08 07:00:03FORECAST20257215237.45430.05633.75564.3322879668360055TF5.454145.45421331.2236687375221.3083764386540.66409500603171163211123WETL
2024-12-08 03:00:03FORECAST20257215236.96829.78633.37764.674608890324005.025.02TF4.968142.96821331.4554417356621.4367510588240.64458953474398163211123WETL
2024-12-07 23:00:02FORECAST20257215234.19627.7730.98365.3963759244390.0070866180.0070866185.15.107086618TF2.196136.19621331.9434639386721.7078995533940.52749259008628163211123WETL
2024-12-07 19:00:02FORECAST20257215234.3427.96831.15465.2889939822630.0066929170.0066929175.115.116692917TF2.34137.3421331.8709143645521.6675181308350.53372836301808163211123WETL
2024-12-07 15:00:01FORECAST20257215234.44827.71631.08264.9075328570320.0122047310.0122047315.035.042204731TF2.448137.44821331.6130308755721.5241836973760.53839984930451163211123WETL
2024-12-07 11:00:03FORECAST20257215237.3130.27233.79167.2502409221180.0921260340.0921260345.065.152126034TF5.31140.3121333.1928607229322.4073001571470.65835864127198163212126WETL
2024-12-07 07:00:03FORECAST20257215236.6829.76833.22467.5720047636160.0389763990.0389763995.245.278976399TF4.68139.6821333.4091122343122.529122120130.63284545821914163211123WETL
2024-12-07 03:00:03FORECAST20257215238.06629.96634.01666.865586606140.0377952960.0377952965.085.117795296TF6.066144.06621332.9341096520522.2618345430770.68803761731921163211123WETL
2024-12-06 23:00:02FORECAST20257215237.9428.25633.09867.123625955993004.914.91TF5.94138.9421333.1077166833122.3593977777060.68316846795146163211123WETL
2024-12-06 19:00:02FORECAST20257215238.33628.34633.34167.3966056234180.0220472560.0220472564.84.822047256TF6.336139.33621333.2912516372722.4626990443320.69836081775132163211123WETL
2024-12-06 15:00:02FORECAST20257215237.90428.3133.10767.0266219272530.0255905650.0255905654.74.725590565TF5.904138.90421333.0424664127522.3227114819670.68177139012136163211123WETL
2024-12-06 11:00:03FORECAST20257215236.87827.78832.33367.3330433103570.0937008380.0937008384.84.893700838TF4.878136.87821333.2485275624822.4386375394770.64093361696461163212126WETL
2024-12-06 07:00:04FORECAST20257215236.9527.93232.44167.5283238218990.0814961070.0814961074.864.941496107TF4.95136.9521333.3797654502622.5125767569940.64385940154738163211123WETL
2024-12-06 03:00:04FORECAST20257215237.74230.70434.22367.3095662138980.0783464990.0783464994.995.068346499TF5.742128.74221333.2327454416322.4297515439420.67545274918688163211123WETL
2024-12-05 23:00:02FORECAST20257215235.02430.27232.64869.0020451076830.3574805080.3574805084.715.067480508TF3.024121.02421334.368080454623.0720813700980.5632095524556163212126WETL
2024-12-05 19:00:02FORECAST20257215234.93430.25432.59469.0061124712690.3657482290.3657482294.624.985748229TF2.934120.93421334.3708030160723.0736292400360.55934685955482163212126WETL
2024-12-05 15:00:02FORECAST20257215232.8128.6730.7468.780571404210.4393703160.4893703164.545.029370316TF0.81120.8121334.2197906576822.9878281760310.46735368595124162212125WETL
2024-12-05 11:00:02FORECAST20257215235.58231.1933.38668.7262894979240.1480315760.1880315764.855.038031576TF3.582121.58221334.183432967722.9671873595480.58701009947921163212126WETL
2024-12-05 07:00:03FORECAST20257215235.631.83833.71968.3324862812110.1283465260.1783465264.784.958346526TF3.6121.621333.9195158185122.8175507336970.58777304983187163212126WETL
2024-12-05 03:00:08FORECAST20257215236.24832.70234.47569.0235196670480.1283465260.1783465264.835.008346526TF4.248119.24821334.3824545114823.0802539252890.61499712710881163212126WETL
2024-12-04 23:00:05FORECAST20257215233.92628.00430.96569.4662858079910.2354331980.2354331984.584.815433198TF1.926106.92621334.6786466101823.2488825192540.51578353556915163212126WETL
2024-12-04 19:00:02FORECAST20257215233.3527.93230.64169.579448180710.0870079210.0870079214.764.847007921TF1.35105.3521334.7542940902523.2920190589230.49077145107338162211122.5WETL
2024-12-04 15:00:03FORECAST20257215233.90827.78830.84869.4939833049540.0767716950.0767716954.764.836771695TF1.908104.90821334.697164013323.2594391281560.51500233559519163211123WETL
2024-12-04 11:00:03FORECAST20257215232.25227.30229.77768.8200747437310.0799213030.1499213035.015.159921303TF0.252104.25221334.2462466024223.002851673990.44327442519503162212125WETL
2024-12-04 07:00:04FORECAST20257215230.52426.6928.60769.0927358973450.1539370910.2639370915.135.393937091TF-1.476100.52421334.4287792546323.1065993215120.37039839015124162212125WETL
2024-12-04 03:00:04FORECAST20257215231.76627.12229.44474.1611626322080.8881894560.9381894565.236.168189456TF-0.23496.76621337.7989162981825.0515603685730.42246838993863162213127.5WETL
2024-12-03 23:00:03FORECAST20257215232.05427.66229.85873.7078685782340.9137800210.9137800214.65.513780021TF0.05400000000000284.05421337.4992720533824.876351989760.43477563206219162213127.5WETL
2024-12-03 19:00:03FORECAST20257215232.5428.6730.60572.4219292375090.913386320.913386324.725.63338632TF0.5483.5421336.6473382484324.3806497086230.45568198013996162213127.5WETL
2024-12-03 15:00:03FORECAST20257215232.10826.8729.48970.9259467319960.5889766960.5889766964.65.188976696TF0.10885.10821335.6527431108323.8064885783270.437090668085162213127.5WETL
2024-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20257215234.03427.75230.89370.0413454083160.6165357660.6165357664.374.986535766TF2.03492.03421335.0628405894823.4682521512190.52046935845427163213129WETL
2024-12-03 07:00:03FORECAST20257215233.92627.66230.79468.7348612739860.6311027030.6311027034.174.801102703TF1.92687.92621334.1891746243622.9704465570740.51578353556915163213129WETL
2024-12-03 03:00:03FORECAST20257215230.45226.27628.36466.1747599027740.1866142740.2166142744.094.306614274TF-1.54886.45221332.4687659003122.0010407586240.36744159286553162212125WETL
2024-12-02 23:00:03FORECAST20257215228.38225.08826.73569.0146254493240.287401730.347401734.434.77740173TF-3.61875.38221334.3765012368823.0768689919180.28637541059836162212125WETL
2024-12-02 19:00:03FORECAST20257215228.07624.76426.4273.242138765480.3972443090.5872443095.015.597244309TF-3.92473.07621337.1910477708324.6965935113090.27514618871584162213127.5WETL
2024-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20257215234.23226.45630.34475.9567448252780.6251971880.7651971884.985.745197188TF2.23274.23221338.9824787640325.7480056397190.52905222532171163213129WETL
2024-12-02 11:00:03FORECAST20257215228.34622.29825.32276.6953328402320.822835090.832835096.166.99283509TT-3.65462.34621339.4677562084126.0355925509310.28504311834458162213127.5WETL
2024-12-02 07:00:04FORECAST20257215231.60427.06829.33675.2402620098540.5523625030.5523625036.256.802362503TT-0.39663.60421338.5108544629725.4696453829730.41557788261434162213127.5WETL
2024-12-02 03:00:04FORECAST20257215234.53827.73431.13669.5794214427930.0370078940.0370078947.217.247007894TT2.53881.53821334.7542762188923.2920088648110.54228873927686163211123WETL
2024-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20257215236.35634.14235.24967.268724528303005.215.21TF4.35685.35621333.205287997222.4142947296570.61948378035067163211123WETL
2024-12-01 19:00:02FORECAST20257215234.84429.51632.1868.372752653059005.175.17TF2.84482.84421333.9465134601722.8328423641640.55547851192004163211123WETL
2024-12-01 15:00:02FORECAST20257215241.37834.86238.1265.7255619087700.164.214.37TF9.37897.37821332.16574587421.8317802944140.80259846686375164212127WETL
2024-12-01 11:00:03FORECAST20257215231.2829.7530.51562.48204104249100.383.583.96TF-0.7284.2821329.9674398090920.6170391168370.40187647060075162212125DRYL
2024-12-01 07:00:04FORECAST20257215236.28434.35835.32160.9958850258900.23.814.01TF4.28498.28421328.9541269178320.0648481042720.61649442229342163212126WETL
2024-12-01 03:00:04FORECAST20257215236.33835.90636.12259.96419618714700.23.814.01TF4.33898.33821328.2484328126819.6831534233030.61873710140643163212126WETL