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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 20, 2025

[ Saturday, April 19, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, April 21, 2025 ]

DAY 202 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/20/2025 12:00:01 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.76°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.147
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 202

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.20 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.22 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 152 in
SWE DAY: 109
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.96 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.45 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -83

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-20 00:00:01FORECAST2025202-8331.29824.22427.761151.585135741130.2039371180.2239371183.884.103937118TF-0.702202.298109444.9649307650667.4500694300630.14730045621548161122124WETL
2025-04-19 20:00:01FORECAST2025202-8330.39824.20627.302151.825686569280.228346580.258346583.884.13834658TF-1.602202.398109445.0583454142167.57128885590.12829439351719161122124WETL
2025-04-19 16:00:01FORECAST2025202-8330.6524.36827.509151.834083033780.2303150850.2603150853.884.140315085TF-1.35202.65109445.0616050364567.5755206942510.13343622382113161122124WETL
2025-04-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025202-8330.70424.6227.662151.559672050830.1964567990.2264567993.884.106456799TF-1.296202.704109444.9550389454367.4372397799350.13455618111073161122124WETL
2025-04-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025202-8330.7424.54827.644151.564860418910.2070867260.2270867263.884.107086726TF-1.26202.74109444.9570545104267.4398538592790.13530638367457161122124WETL
2025-04-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025202-8330.68624.42227.554151.309338616220.228346580.258346583.884.13834658TF-1.314202.686109444.8577584379367.3111332075350.13418214938387161122124WETL
2025-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025202-8331.02824.69227.86150.540367839840.2078741280.2278741283.884.107874128TF-0.972198.028109444.5585463959766.9240071007930.14141088571302161112123WETL
2025-04-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025202-8331.69424.81828.256152.680065762650.2185040550.2585040553.884.138504055TF-0.306196.694109445.3896709886168.0021242565470.15623111670055161112123WETL
2025-04-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025202-8330.97424.8927.932152.541972378370.1862205730.2162205733.884.096220573TF-1.026195.974109445.3361675104267.9324573634660.14025233936128161112123WETL
2025-04-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025202-8330.21824.04427.131151.706083931910.173228440.193228443.884.07322844TF-1.782194.218109445.0119064876567.5110136363150.12470669772549161112123WETL
2025-04-18 08:00:01FORECAST2025202-8330.86624.15227.509151.597709163360.1523622870.1823622873.884.062362287TF-1.134194.866109444.9698148967567.4564045851920.13795457771841161112123WETL
2025-04-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025202-8330.45223.97227.212151.934903049730.1744095430.2144095433.884.094409543TF-1.548193.452109445.1007393157567.6263376753010.12938449996616161112123WETL
2025-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025202-8330.09223.64826.87153.608938631430.2161418490.2661418493.884.146141849TF-1.908189.092109445.7490701253868.4710415579060.12223728216204161112123WETL
2025-04-17 20:00:01FORECAST2025202-8331.11823.82827.473153.904000927860.1964567990.2364567993.884.116456799TF-0.882190.118109445.8630581724568.620108518670.14335613237396161112123WETL
2025-04-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025202-8330.77623.8127.293153.99325709950.2185040550.2585040553.884.138504055TF-1.224189.776109445.8975226634268.665211847540.13605943996684161112123WETL
2025-04-17 12:00:01FORECAST2025202-8331.06423.77427.419153.454739044790.1933071910.2433071913.884.123307191TF-0.936190.064109445.68946596368.3931606943620.14218683312153161112123WETL
2025-04-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025202-8331.4623.7227.59153.344732208550.1602363070.2102363073.884.090236307TF-0.54190.46109445.646929754468.3376091027480.15091180280752161112123WETL
2025-04-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025202-8330.93823.52227.23153.12108381470.153543390.203543393.884.08354339TF-1.062188.938109445.5604152509868.2246936881590.13948355621569161112123WETL
2025-04-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025202-8330.48823.32426.906155.407328197790.1677166260.2377166263.884.117716626TF-1.512179.488109446.4424968421969.3804356281940.1301147831285161112123WETL
2025-04-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025202-8330.9223.4527.185155.637627785230.1511811840.2311811843.884.111181184TF-1.08179.92109446.5310676596769.4970361029570.13910023841161112123WETL
2025-04-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025202-8329.80422.53226.168155.851929192540.1519685860.2419685863.884.121968586TF-2.196176.804109446.6134392202469.6055661057870.11672197515787161112123WETL
2025-04-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025202-8330.222.15426.177155.300293480840.1472441740.1872441743.884.067244174TF-1.8177.2109446.401314768569.326255193780.12435181158306161112123WETL
2025-04-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025202-8329.64222.13625.889155.276130942040.1472441740.1972441743.884.077244174TF-2.358180.642109446.3920165773169.3140252175390.11369805967719161112123WETL
2025-04-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025202-8329.31821.79425.556155.178349499850.1515748850.2115748853.884.091574885TF-2.682179.318109446.3543826444669.2645363907920.10781815921254161112123WETL
2025-04-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025202-8328.95821.90225.43155.236763875730.1370079480.1870079483.884.067007948TF-3.042173.958109446.376866180869.2941001748970.10154467003244161112123WETL
2025-04-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025202-8328.9421.39825.169157.258392863810.1370079480.1870079483.884.067007948TF-3.06171.94109447.1529337877970.3185517318040.10123810163996161112123WETL
2025-04-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025202-8328.77821.99225.385157.503598617660.1661418220.2261418223.884.106141822TF-3.222171.778109447.2467932378170.4429794051630.098509191873559161112123WETL
2025-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025202-8328.14821.30824.728156.223382594260.1480315760.1680315763.884.048031576TF-3.852172.148109446.7561095109369.7937506224490.0884067299716161112123WETL
2025-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025202-8330.2921.34425.817156.183864018760.1468504730.1668504733.884.046850473TF-1.71174.29109446.7409373517169.7737258109520.12613329652021161112123WETL
2025-04-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025202-8330.72221.95626.339156.005532598060.1291339280.1391339283.884.019133928TF-1.278174.722109446.6724525599869.6833738585040.13493092579428161112123WETL
2025-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2025202-8329.96623.37826.672157.219940660740.1204725060.1504725063.884.030472506TF-2.034164.966109447.1382098144970.2990428141850.11980229439707161112123WETL
2025-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025202-8327.80622.20825.007159.095402203530.1145669910.1345669913.884.014566991TF-4.194161.806109447.8546817075671.2516207149980.083255436223692161112123WETL
2025-04-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025202-8328.27422.125.187159.190536751550.1322835360.1622835363.884.042283536TF-3.726162.274109447.8909345408771.2999982757130.090363067976907161112123WETL
2025-04-14 12:00:03FORECAST2025202-8329.7522.33426.042157.641488921830.1688977290.1688977293.884.048897729TF-2.25172.75109447.2995489845770.5129668959890.11570775136763161112123WETL
2025-04-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025202-8329.62421.9225.772157.373502152490.1787402540.1787402543.884.058740254TF-2.376176.624109447.1970024095470.3769584212860.11336553730161161112123WETL
2025-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025202-8329.64223.07226.357156.258447594410.1543307920.1543307923.884.034330792TF-2.358179.642109446.7695705572569.8115195276990.11369805967719161112123WETL
2025-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025202-8328.68822.6425.664158.612031083630.3118111920.3118111923.884.191811192TF-3.312172.688109447.6703485352471.0059032370890.097016523301467161112123WETL
2025-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2025202-8332.0923.2727.68159.183336864040.3173230060.3173230063.884.197323006TF0.090000000000003173.09109447.8881911928671.2963368160790.16551033742876161112123WETL
2025-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025202-8333.27823.16228.22158.559847994450.2196851580.2196851583.884.099685158TF1.278172.278109447.6504350194170.9793849313240.1954315109221161112123WETL
2025-04-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025202-833224.09828.049157.043294665720.0283464720.0383464723.883.918346472TF0170109447.070550712270.2094322318630.16337081445267161111121.5DRYL
2025-04-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025202-8335.81626.88831.352155.508108000880.0291338740.0391338743.883.919133874TF3.816187.816109446.4812620780669.4314563236040.26942106315338162111122DRYL
2025-04-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025202-8332.73825.37629.057157.508898042770.0956693430.1056693433.883.985669343TF0.738171.738109447.2488210976470.4456689620190.18144524118189161112123DRYL
2025-04-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025202-8333.7123.7228.715157.037505793970.2003938090.2003938093.683.880393809TF1.71175.71109447.0683329397570.2064959243260.20707776303534161112123DRYL
2025-04-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025202-8333.38623.34228.364157.543952185590.2003938090.2003938093.693.890393809TF1.386170.386109447.2622341082770.4634600247730.19830521370956161112123DRYL
2025-04-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025202-8331.78423.3627.572157.787101970570.2358268990.2358268993.693.925826899TF-0.216169.784109447.3552393378670.5868867664730.15830941709941161112123DRYL
2025-04-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025202-8330.88423.59427.239157.309184713290.0311023790.0311023793.683.711102379FF-1.116157.884109447.1723806079670.3443226197380.13833574936143161111121.5DRYL
2025-04-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025202-8330.88423.59427.239157.181556660150.0311023790.0311023793.683.711102379FF-1.116161.884109447.123510522770.2795694033080.13833574936143161111121.5DRYL
2025-04-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025202-8329.8423.03626.438157.550162663680.0102362260.0102362263.73.710236226FF-2.16151.84109447.264610342270.4666121131220.1174016054694161111121.5DRYL
2025-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025202-8331.42422.51426.969161.372514961070.1763780480.2063780483.653.856378048TF-0.576150.424109448.720018873572.4110779589960.15010424568466161112123DRYL
2025-04-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025202-8331.5522.51427.032160.852814007690.1763780480.2063780483.673.876378048TF-0.45158.55109448.5229652375672.1461811055360.15294329149652161112123DRYL
2025-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025202-8332.61222.92827.77159.794560058140.1027559610.1027559613.673.772755961TF0.612164.612109448.1209048715371.6072828468030.17827400838539161112123DRYL
2025-04-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025202-8333.06220.6626.861158.944932108740.1921260880.2021260883.673.872126088TF1.062175.062109447.7973243209471.1751153126670.18976033895159161112123DRYL
2025-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025202-8333.06220.6626.861159.631501636620.1921260880.2021260883.673.872126088TF1.062168.062109448.0588582567671.5243083651160.18976033895159161112123DRYL
2025-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025202-8333.65620.44427.05158.655838137670.0267716680.0867716683.713.796771668TF1.656165.656109447.6870636461671.0281663061730.2055999649271161111121.5DRYL
2025-04-11 00:00:03FORECAST2025202-8322.3718.73420.552165.010121051870.0133858340.2533858343.73.953385834TF-9.63164.37109450.0920221278674.2697390557980.028278414106572161112123DRYL
2025-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025202-8322.3718.8620.615165.654163106110.0141732360.2641732363.854.114173236TF-9.63164.37109450.3336186305474.5996387127890.028278414106572161112123WETL
2025-04-10 16:00:03FORECAST2025202-8321.36218.75220.057165.987889503370.0244094620.2444094623.824.064409462TF-10.638156.362109450.4586524935374.7706810359310.022540416299593161112123WETL
2025-04-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025202-8321.03817.97819.508165.4094326125100.193.974.16TF-10.962148.038109450.2418605712674.4742506954920.020918126290965161112123WETL
2025-04-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025202-8323.84621.39822.622165.0158727316800.194.014.2TF-8.154150.846109450.0941814782674.2726841680840.038823099972488161112123WETL
2025-04-10 04:00:05FORECAST2025202-8325.35824.74625.052166.265546670390.0968504460.3868504463.944.326850446TF-6.642155.358109450.5625987282274.9130367867770.052729700392369161112123WETL