MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 26, 2022

[ Wednesday, May 25, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, May 27, 2022 ]

DAY 238 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/26/2022 12:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.40°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.89°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.402
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 172

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.50 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.72 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.77 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 155 in
SWE DAY: 145
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 466.27 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 72.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -46

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-05-26 12:00:02FORECAST2022238-4648.3737.442.885155.297533333330.49820.71825.055.7682TF16.37172.37146466.2714478023672.4108057074690.40182403419835162113126WETL
2022-05-26 08:00:02FORECAST2022238-4646.5137.7442.125155.102920.43270.65275.055.7027TF14.51170.51146466.2063653728772.3099685919190.3294945220096162113126WETL
2022-05-26 04:00:06FORECAST2022238-4647.0938.7342.91154.780604833330.41540.63545.055.6854TF15.09171.09146466.0985062140872.1430087037290.35151798853388162113126WETL
2022-05-26 00:00:02FORECAST2022238-4747.8138.7143.26155.583258666670.40560.52565.055.5756TF15.81160.81145465.8661650657972.4809760634790.37955890119964162113126WETL
2022-05-25 20:00:02FORECAST2022238-4747.5438.5343.035156.662306666670.37610.51615.055.5661TF15.54168.54145466.2275455546373.0402827181270.36895998404053162113126WETL
2022-05-25 16:00:02FORECAST2022238-4747.6438.7343.185156.626554666670.3290.4695.055.519TF15.64168.64145466.2155878255873.0217412530150.3728743934845162112124WETL
2022-05-25 12:00:02FORECAST2022238-474838.8843.44155.860838666670.33950.47955.055.5295TF16169145465.9592231343272.6247953021840.38707254986925162112124WETL
2022-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2022238-4748.6338.4143.52155.6626720.3170.4775.055.527TF16.63169.63145465.8927949071972.5221173208010.41227562901986162112124WETL
2022-05-25 04:00:07FORECAST2022238-4749.3539.1444.245155.468691386380.35070.58075.055.6307TF17.35170.35145465.8277375111172.421628762330.44152258482577162113126WETL
2022-05-25 00:00:02FORECAST2022238-4749.8339.1444.485156.372369929480.28510.47515.055.5251TF17.83157.83145466.1305410682472.8899374033490.46120964655715162112124WETL
2022-05-24 20:00:03FORECAST2022238-4750.0739.0344.55157.182097333330.27360.47365.055.5236TF18.07172.07145466.4012738121573.3099304167320.47109203058408162112124WETL
2022-05-24 16:00:03FORECAST2022238-4750.7939.0244.905157.045977333330.25690.44695.055.4969TF18.79173.79145466.3558009508273.239302545390.50082177962718163112125WETL
2022-05-24 12:00:04FORECAST2022238-4750.3139.0844.695156.385986666670.27550.46555.055.5155TF18.31174.31145466.1350984354672.8969972887930.48099224824102162112124WETL
2022-05-24 08:00:02FORECAST2022238-4748.8338.7243.775156.461645333330.35750.70755.055.7575TF16.83166.83145466.1604176607372.9362259364710.42035827955581162113126WETL
2022-05-24 04:00:06FORECAST2022238-4749.0338.0843.555156.3976090.38470.63475.055.6847TF17.03169.03145466.1389881736972.9030232120440.42847464883629162113126WETL
2022-05-24 00:00:03FORECAST2022238-4749.2638.0543.655158.204001333330.45340.71345.055.7634TF17.26156.26145466.7421540688973.8404763646380.4378458008232162113126WETL
2022-05-23 20:00:03FORECAST2022238-4748.7238.7743.745158.407266724210.4710.6515.095.741TF16.72166.72145466.8098526122973.9460728322450.41590843623725162113126WETL
2022-05-23 16:00:03FORECAST2022238-4748.7738.7743.77158.27310.46870.66875.095.7587TF16.77166.77145466.765171642973.8763706879540.41792979234609162113126WETL
2022-05-23 12:00:02FORECAST2022238-4749.673843.835158.102512217480.33630.54635.095.6363TF17.67168.67145466.7083395323873.787760952920.45463429363642162113126WETL
2022-05-23 08:00:04FORECAST2022238-4747.737.9242.81158.147711399160.37550.53555.115.6455TF15.7159.7145466.723400247373.8112376055440.37522938252665162113126WETL
2022-05-23 04:00:09FORECAST2022238-4745.6837.9241.8158.389011045990.38960.55965.125.6796TF13.68155.68145466.803773896973.9365881000640.29899485185923162113126WETL
2022-05-23 00:00:03FORECAST2022238-4746.9837.1742.075159.828670927490.37030.41035.125.5303TF14.98145.98145467.2822827757974.6851062040180.34729986225934162112124WETL
2022-05-22 20:00:03FORECAST2022238-4746.2437.3241.78160.552501297520.33430.38435.195.5743TF14.24154.24145467.52220663475.0618596872240.31943481439446162112124WETL
2022-05-22 16:00:03FORECAST2022238-4746.3237.3341.825160.235267688820.33430.36435.155.5143TF14.32156.32145467.4171093439774.8967056380680.32240207908229162112124WETL
2022-05-22 12:00:04FORECAST2022238-4748.3237.6142.965159.823224797310.38960.45965.155.6096TF16.32162.32145467.2804759061274.6822725441390.39982188835649162112124WETL
2022-05-22 08:00:03FORECAST2022238-4748.0438.4543.245159.360238277380.3540.4245.145.564TF16.04161.04145467.1267788506774.4414347833890.38865988137782162112124WETL
2022-05-22 04:00:07FORECAST2022238-4748.0438.7143.375159.567884541950.34780.39785.145.5378TF16.04159.04145467.1957332750774.5494348257310.38865988137782162112124WETL
2022-05-22 00:00:03FORECAST2022238-4743.9435.4239.68166.779869233920.8580.9585.146.098TF11.94138.94145469.5682350778778.3145288426910.23960789033319161113124.5WETL
2022-05-21 20:00:02FORECAST2022238-4743.6135.4239.515166.64887430030.8620.9525.346.292TT11.61150.61145469.5255285134478.2459007820170.22911722626347161113124.5WETL
2022-05-21 16:00:03FORECAST2022238-4743.4635.3639.41163.124006666670.83070.91075.356.2607TF11.46150.46145468.3710102604276.4025558001940.22443511857156161113124.5WETL
2022-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2022238-4752.0538.1845.115162.403616258010.33990.37995.355.7299TF20.05165.05145468.1337822253776.0266191259390.55273864219702163112125WETL
2022-05-21 08:00:03FORECAST2022238-4750.6638.844.73162.369734226060.39720.43725.355.7872TF18.66152.66145468.1226140172476.0089444231890.4954494314028162112124WETL
2022-05-21 04:00:07FORECAST2022238-4750.6738.844.735162.012107730560.39720.43725.345.7772TF18.67155.67145468.0046744062475.8224237283070.49586267207658162112124WETL
2022-05-21 00:00:04FORECAST2022238-4761.1347.1354.13161.440999456010.09120.11125.385.4912TF29.13167.13145467.8161095618275.5247002892810.85845572661954165112127WETL
2022-05-20 20:00:04FORECAST2022238-4760.343.8252.06161.643217150980.08070.09075.415.5007TF28.3174.3145467.8829077772475.6300984630680.838265750754164112126WETL
2022-05-20 16:00:04FORECAST2022238-4760.2543.7952.02161.974605207430.08070.09075.515.6007TF28.25173.25145467.9923004546775.8028681062640.83699246072231164112126WETL
2022-05-20 12:00:04FORECAST2022238-4760.1148.0954.1160.580402995520.0180.0185.495.508TF28.11180.11145467.5314462216175.0763880473450.8333927702055164111123WETL
2022-05-20 08:00:04FORECAST2022238-4760.7247.9454.33160.795987693530.02050.02055.415.4305TF28.72170.72145467.6028145615675.18865641570.84870542292665164111123WETL
2022-05-20 04:00:07FORECAST2022238-4760.6447.9754.305160.847235433010.02050.02055.315.3305TF28.64182.64145467.6197741457175.2153479051480.84675217920475164111123WETL
2022-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2022238-4761.6446.7354.185154.596614905860.13080.13084.74.8308TF29.64173.64145465.5348633927371.9701140011750.86997926033252165112127WETL
2022-05-19 20:00:03FORECAST2022238-4763.4747.3955.43154.876820161420.01730.01734.764.7773TF31.47179.47145465.6290369696872.1151446206910.90593713159894165111123.5WETL
2022-05-19 16:00:04FORECAST2022238-4763.5147.2855.395155.390884980620.0050.0054.834.835TF31.51181.51145465.8016337189372.3813280890040.90663178028209165111123.5WETL
2022-05-19 12:00:03FORECAST2022238-4746.0441.3643.7157.329755830670.00781.06784.935.9978TF14.04152.04145466.4505835016673.386556409390.31206734684795162114128WETL
2022-05-19 08:00:04FORECAST2022238-4742.3541.1741.76158.65617216540.00781.06785.026.0878TF10.35140.35145466.8927042087974.0754092617180.19151506778603161114126WETL
2022-05-19 04:00:08FORECAST2022238-4740.7539.7440.245159.784275602270.00781.07785.076.1478TF8.75141.75145467.2675529525874.6620074609720.14959354663214161114126WETL