Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 26, 2022

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DAY 118 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/26/2022 07:00:05 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.10°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.03°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.07°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.946 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records: Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 14 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 189 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.34 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.34 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5) Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 101 in SWE DAY: 26 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 359.23 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 36.11 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units. Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -166 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-26 07:00:05	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.1	34.03	40.065	100.52876466667	0.0041	0.0041	8.34	8.3441	T	T	14.1	189.1	26	359.22647121783	36.112593387094	0.94575954943126	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-26 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.82	33.33	40.075	100.46546066667	0.0059	0.0059	8.34	8.3459	T	T	14.82	189.82	26	359.18809130009	36.085997058444	0.95492126699968	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-25 23:00:01	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.75	32.96	39.855	101.348592	0.001	0.011	8.34	8.351	T	T	14.75	189.75	26	359.72295865518	36.457415369777	0.95408895215403	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-25 19:00:01	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.61	32.86	39.735	101.32453866667	0.001	0.011	8.34	8.351	T	T	14.61	189.61	26	359.70840667316	36.44728836068	0.95238741785371	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-25 15:00:01	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	47.1	33.09	40.095	101.32082133333	0.0004	0.0104	8.34	8.3504	T	T	15.1	190.1	26	359.70615765117	36.445723331874	0.95813020431431	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-25 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	47.22	32.83	40.025	100.82975066667	0.0004	0.0104	8.34	8.3504	T	T	15.22	190.22	26	359.40886845966	36.239106594176	0.95944779788056	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-25 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	47.17	32.03	39.6	100.69112441667	0	0	8.34	8.34	T	T	15.17	189.17	26	359.32487840032	36.18082603701	0.95890293641039	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-25 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	47.2	32.85	40.025	100.71534175	0.0011	0.0011	8.34	8.3411	T	T	15.2	188.2	26	359.33955318822	36.191005903644	0.95923055891863	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-24 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	47.4	32.79	40.095	101.92470666667	0.001	0.011	8.34	8.351	T	T	15.4	187.4	26	360.07123567913	36.7001550757	0.96136107689568	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-24 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	47.04	32.75	39.895	101.91224266667	0	0.01	8.34	8.35	T	T	15.04	187.04	26	360.06370624374	36.694899806171	0.95745856647749	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-24 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.29	32.1	39.195	102.063068	0.001	0.011	8.34	8.351	T	T	14.29	186.29	26	360.15480300845	36.758504149978	0.9483090671071	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-24 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.19	32.17	39.18	101.714568	0.001	0.011	8.34	8.351	T	T	14.19	186.19	26	359.94426016606	36.611574926871	0.94697931254608	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-24 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.91	32.71	39.81	101.43602616667	0	0	8.34	8.34	T	T	14.91	186.91	26	359.77584780235	36.494232311813	0.95597355246301	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.83	30.79	38.81	101.6285075	0	0.01	8.34	8.35	T	T	14.83	181.83	26	359.89223886204	36.575311096383	0.95503917477306	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-23 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.35	32.26	39.305	102.530232	0	0	8.35	8.35	T	T	14.35	184.35	26	360.43674333357	36.955662915315	0.94909414859356	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-23 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	45.74	31.85	38.795	102.44489733333	0.0003	0.0003	8.35	8.3503	T	T	13.74	182.74	26	360.38526758153	36.919631737836	0.94065789179229	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-23 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	45.61	32.61	39.11	102.65919066667	0	0	8.35	8.35	T	T	13.61	178.61	26	360.51451287617	37.010128115455	0.93872610157267	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-23 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.3	32.34	39.32	101.806828	0	0	8.35	8.35	T	T	14.3	180.3	26	360.00001627611	36.650459737019	0.94844057615729	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-23 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	41.02	32.34	36.68	101.52653416667	0	0	8.35	8.35	T	T	9.02	180.02	26	359.830583948	36.532352075408	0.83512004458968	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-23 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.36	31.27	38.815	101.33470883333	0.0002	0.0002	8.34	8.3402	T	T	14.36	181.36	26	359.71455961213	36.451570161406	0.9492240708388	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-22 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	45.24	31.45	38.345	100.28000533333	0.0003	0.0003	8.35	8.3503	T	T	13.24	179.24	26	359.07561800417	36.008104888528	0.9329594943546	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-22 19:00:04	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	45.31	30.88	38.095	100.314008	0	0	8.35	8.35	T	T	13.31	179.31	26	359.09624360474	36.022383453736	0.93408141540435	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-22 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	45.35	30.78	38.065	100.37605466667	0	0	8.35	8.35	T	T	13.35	177.35	26	359.13387576103	36.048441546042	0.93471597120162	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-22 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	44.76	29.62	37.19	99.404354666667	0.0005	0.0005	8.35	8.3505	T	T	12.76	177.76	26	358.54384495871	35.640819527826	0.92486596369241	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-22 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	40	30.5	35.25	99.613362083333	0	0	8.34	8.34	T	T	8	170	26	358.67088035306	35.728412273357	0.80182884968055	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-01-22 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	45.75	30.55	38.15	99.484403416667	0	0	8.35	8.35	T	T	13.75	170.75	26	358.59250682046	35.674361610721	0.94080449721127	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-21 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.42	29.77	38.095	100.97910266667	0	0	8.35	8.35	T	T	14.42	181.42	26	359.49932388505	36.301919135186	0.9499980865059	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-21 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.45	29.02	37.735	101.208976	0	0	8.35	8.35	T	T	14.45	180.45	26	359.63848022946	36.398642314219	0.9503815621432	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-21 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	45	29.04	37.02	101.35619333333	0	0	8.35	8.35	T	T	13	177	26	359.72755718702	36.460615833575	0.92900096894114	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-21 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.52	32.38	39.45	100.85380666667	0	0	8.35	8.35	T	T	14.52	179.52	26	359.42344035682	36.249222165215	0.95126724325729	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-21 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	46.55	32.19	39.37	101.14969442299	0	0	8.35	8.35	T	T	14.55	168.55	26	359.60260125095	36.373693230246	0.95164294454733	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-21 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	44.98	30.83	37.905	101.23594541667	0	0	8.35	8.35	T	T	12.98	170.98	26	359.65480113691	36.409993816739	0.92866318207265	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-20 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	45.54	31.1	38.32	102.35892666667	0	0	6.86	6.86	T	T	13.54	173.54	26	360.33339689664	36.883339748494	0.93766581279681	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-20 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	45.25	28.25	36.75	102.53396933333	0	0	6.86	6.86	T	T	13.25	165.25	26	360.4389975204	36.957241118294	0.93312066393876	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-20 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	45.27	28.36	36.815	102.72092933333	0	0	6.87	6.87	T	T	13.27	161.27	26	360.5517358507	37.036209379331	0.93344210673534	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-20 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	44.95	32.04	38.495	102.96997154155	0	0	6.87	6.87	T	T	12.95	174.95	26	360.70182710328	37.14145687181	0.92815419854401	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-20 07:00:09	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	43.78	30.62	37.2	102.85987380343	0	0	7.28	7.28	T	T	11.78	169.78	26	360.6354857725	37.0949205556	0.90606773206106	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-20 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	43.82	30.62	37.22	103.15443480351	0	0	7.83	7.83	T	T	11.82	172.82	26	360.81293711739	37.219454598138	0.90689714135818	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-19 23:00:04	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	45.68	33.79	39.735	104.09543589648	0.073	0.073	7.67	7.743	T	T	13.68	180.68	26	361.37893237387	37.617897489262	0.93977229341387	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-19 19:00:04	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	47.32	32.47	39.895	104.4074768877	0	0	7.79	7.79	T	T	15.32	180.32	26	361.56632094516	37.750227297453	0.96051998146212	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-19 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	47.5	32.64	40.07	104.54926521642	0	0	7.63	7.63	T	T	15.5	179.5	26	361.65141938819	37.810390161511	0.96239191534236	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-01-19 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	36.59	32.28	34.435	104.49630822159	0.0225	0.0225	7.53	7.5525	T	T	4.59	170.59	26	361.61963927311	37.787917284464	0.66482626607868	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-01-19 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	32.09	31.21	31.65	103.88562876081	0	0	7.4	7.4	T	T	0.090000000000003	162.09	26	361.2528543111	37.528979911747	0.44757575327732	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-01-19 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	118	-166	31.87	31.42	31.645	103.91541470762	0	0	7.44	7.44	T	T	-0.13	163.87	26	361.27075748246	37.541600585527	0.43681786457201	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L