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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 12, 2024

[ Wednesday, September 11, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, September 13, 2024 ]

DAY 348 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/12/2024 12:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.66°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.94°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.144
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 638

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 255
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 62

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 67.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-09-12 12:00:01FORECAST20243486247.6638.22842.94400.0728346850.5528346850.230.782834685FF15.66637.66256469.3343470174500.143513372244551613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-12 08:00:01FORECAST20243486248.84837.79643.32200.0625984590.5425984590.230.772598459FF16.848638.848256469.3343470174500.170328726886421613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-12 04:00:03FORECAST20243486248.3838.01243.19600.086614220.566614220.230.79661422FF16.38638.38256469.3343470174500.159405215472011613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20243486247.98438.31843.15100.1122047850.5122047850.230.742204785FF15.984637.984255468.8448681152100.150527747651141613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20243486248.57838.33643.45700.066929170.426929170.230.65692917FF16.578637.578255468.8448681152100.16396961366351613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 16:00:01FORECAST20243486247.89437.9442.91700.0972441470.4572441470.230.687244147FF15.894636.894255468.8448681152100.148556852562871613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 12:00:01FORECAST20243486247.58839.27243.4300.0972441470.4572441470.230.687244147FF15.588636.588255468.8448681152100.141984996734421613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 08:00:01FORECAST20243486247.35439.4743.41200.0952756420.5452756420.230.775275642FF15.354637.354255468.8448681152100.137093870422971613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-11 04:00:04FORECAST20243486248.97439.68644.3300.1066929710.5866929710.230.816692971FF16.974638.974255468.8448681152100.173349526870541613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-11 00:00:01FORECAST20243486249.29840.0144.65400.1240158150.7940158150.231.024015815FF17.298637.298255468.8448681152100.181272396147551613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-10 20:00:01FORECAST20243486249.42440.38844.90600.0700787780.6600787780.230.890078778FF17.424636.424255468.8448681152100.184413658583011613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-10 16:00:01FORECAST20243486248.79439.5644.17700.0740157880.7640157880.230.994015788FF16.794634.794255468.8448681152100.169044458443791613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-10 12:00:01FORECAST20243486249.38839.41644.40200.0732283860.7032283860.230.933228386FF17.388635.388255468.8448681152100.183512726244271613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-10 08:00:01FORECAST20243486249.35239.36244.35700.0657480670.6257480670.230.855748067FF17.352635.352255468.8448681152100.18261453599321613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-10 04:00:04FORECAST20243486250.19838.98444.59100.035433090.655433090.230.88543309FF18.198637.198255468.8448681152100.204442565243551613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20243486248.95637.90443.4300.0677165720.5377165720.230.767716572FF16.956629.956255468.8448681152100.172915913116261613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20243486248.72237.72443.22300.0645669640.4945669640.230.724566964FF16.722630.722255468.8448681152100.167341777259411613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20243486248.54238.49843.5200.066929170.506929170.230.73692917FF16.542629.542255468.8448681152100.163133492526581613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20243486249.24438.60643.92500.0822835090.4122835090.230.642283509FF17.244634.244255468.8448681152100.179936436329121613525245DRYM
2024-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20243486249.11839.03844.07800.0716535820.3716535820.230.601653582FF17.118633.118255468.8448681152100.176843261841421613525245DRYM
2024-09-09 04:00:04FORECAST20243486248.86638.44443.65500.0700787780.5000787780.230.730078778FF16.866630.866255468.8448681152100.170758198196251613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-09 00:00:02FORECAST20243486248.34436.71642.5300.003937010.413937010.230.64393701FF16.344625.344255468.8448681152100.158584325900051613525245DRYM
2024-09-08 20:00:01FORECAST20243486248.00235.40241.70200.0031496080.4631496080.230.693149608FF16.002625.002255468.8448681152100.150924001497771613525245DRYM
2024-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20243486250.39637.07643.73600.0043307110.2543307110.230.484330711FF18.396633.396255468.8448681152100.209766541916451613525245DRYM
2024-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20243486251.38635.643.49300.0035433090.0535433090.230.283543309FF19.386632.386255468.8448681152100.237579188697191613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20243486252.5235.04243.78100.0031496080.0231496080.230.253149608FF20.52630.52255468.8448681152100.27177336327361623515225DRYL
2024-09-08 04:00:04FORECAST20243486250.1836.28443.23200.0031496080.0231496080.230.253149608FF18.18626.18255468.8448681152100.203962580256581613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20243486252.28636.71644.50100.019685050.129685050.230.35968505FF20.286622.286255468.8448681152100.264522236860611623525250DRYMH
2024-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20243486253.6937.52645.60800.019685050.109685050.230.33968505FF21.69631.69255468.8448681152100.309443349114331623525250DRYMH
2024-09-07 16:00:02FORECAST20243486253.04236.30244.67200.0185039470.1085039470.230.338503947FF21.042630.042255468.8448681152100.288296762825961623525250DRYMH
2024-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20243486252.1638.40845.28400.051181130.181181130.230.41118113FF20.16633.16255468.8448681152100.260658914457121623525250DRYMH
2024-09-07 08:00:02FORECAST20243486251.87238.85845.36500.0500000270.1800000270.240.420000027FF19.872628.872255468.8448681152100.251938645146191623525250DRYMH
2024-09-07 04:00:04FORECAST20243486252.03438.82245.42800.0464567180.1664567180.230.396456718FF20.034635.034255468.8448681152100.256824800671231623525250DRYMH
2024-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20243486251.47637.97644.72600.0070866180.3870866180.230.617086618FF19.476628.476255468.8448681152100.240204049045571613525245DRYM
2024-09-06 20:00:02FORECAST20243486251.33238.5744.95100.0090551230.4090551230.230.639055123FF19.332628.332255468.8448681152100.236011847553951613525245DRYM
2024-09-06 16:00:02FORECAST20243486254.1439.66846.904000.060.230.29FF22.14639.14255468.8448681152100.324514579652261623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 12:00:03FORECAST20243486257.07439.09248.0830000.230.23FF25.074638.074255468.8448681152100.428886140128341623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 08:00:03FORECAST20243486255.9437.68846.8140000.230.23FF23.94633.94255468.8448681152100.387498015372371623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 04:00:05FORECAST20243486256.15638.2147.183000.020.230.25FF24.156637.156255468.8448681152100.395298865378351623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 00:00:03FORECAST20243486256.58840.3748.479000.020.230.25FF24.588637.588255468.8448681152100.411024065841151623515225DRYL
2024-09-05 20:00:03FORECAST20243486255.83239.03847.43500.0043307110.0843307110.230.314330711FF23.832635.832255468.8448681152100.383614336169521623515225DRYL
2024-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20243486257.48838.5748.02900.0043307110.0843307110.230.314330711FF25.488639.488255468.8448681152100.444219226871291623515225DRYL
2024-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20243486258.53238.73248.632000.160.230.39FF26.532651.532255468.8448681152100.483206129446111623525250DRYMH
2024-09-05 08:00:03FORECAST20243486259.50439.6549.577000.140.230.37FF27.504651.504255468.8448681152100.519657117917381633525255DRYH
2024-09-05 04:00:03FORECAST20243486251.4438.04844.74400.0429134090.0629134090.230.292913409FF19.44652.44255468.8448681152100.239152215568651613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-05 00:00:03FORECAST20243486248.48837.86843.17800.0307086780.0607086780.230.290708678FF16.488642.488255468.8448681152100.161884502418231613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20243486247.78637.70642.74600.0240157610.1140157610.230.344015761FF15.786635.786255468.8448681152100.146214589720031613525245DRYM
2024-09-04 16:00:03FORECAST20243486251.29639.86645.581000.10.230.33FF19.296628.296255468.8448681152100.234970121888461613525245DRYM
2024-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20243486251.87241.86446.86800.0074803190.0474803190.230.277480319FF19.872642.872255468.8448681152100.251938645146191623515225DRYL
2024-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20243486253.94241.48647.714000.010.230.24FF21.942647.942255468.8448681152100.317845898927491623515225DRYL
2024-09-04 04:00:05FORECAST20243486250.55839.27244.91500.0055118140.0155118140.230.245511814FF18.558642.558255468.8448681152100.214182420097971613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-04 00:00:03FORECAST20243486250.86440.24445.55400.0055118140.0955118140.20.295511814FF18.864627.864255468.8448681152100.222669207726121613525245DRYM
2024-09-03 20:00:03FORECAST20243486250.2740.17245.22100.0192913490.0692913490.20.269291349FF18.27629.27255468.8448681152100.206369203897581613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20243486252.0738.35445.21200.0149606380.2749606380.210.484960638FF20.07615.07255468.8448681152100.2579172629021623525250DRYMH
2024-09-03 12:00:03FORECAST20243486259.34239.07449.20800.0653543660.5253543660.20.725354366FF27.342635.342255468.8448681152100.513585133374581633535282.5DRYVH
2024-09-03 08:00:03FORECAST20243486266.14640.26253.20400.1078740740.3078740740.20.507874074FF34.146653.146255468.8448681152100.749810814291181643525260DRYH
2024-09-03 04:00:05FORECAST20243486261.7942.81852.30400.0842520140.6742520140.240.914252014FF29.79637.79255468.8448681152100.604208673726981633535282.5DRYVH
2024-09-03 00:00:04FORECAST20243486243.740.15441.927000.620.210.83FF11.7598.7255468.8448681152100.0752670950462621613435260DRYH
2024-09-02 20:00:03FORECAST20243486243.39440.65842.026000.60.210.81FF11.394604.394255468.8448681152100.0712569103379261613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-02 16:00:03FORECAST20243486251.0840.11845.5990000.150.15FF19.08654.08255468.8448681152100.228773332820011613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-02 12:00:04FORECAST20243486239.39835.70837.5530000.150.15FF7.398660.398255468.8448681152100.0326208406729521613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-02 08:00:03FORECAST20243486242.92639.25441.09000.010.150.16FF10.926661.926255468.8448681152100.0654426276587931613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-02 04:00:06FORECAST20243486242.42240.71241.567000.010.160.17FF10.422623.422255468.8448681152100.0595985972581751613515222.5DRYL