morageology.com :: DFH V2

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 26, 2022

[ Sunday, September 25, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 27, 2022 ]

DAY 361 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/26/2022 12:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 72.77°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 60.03°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 66.40°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.942 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records: Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 41 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 505 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.19 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.19 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)* Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 268 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 475.53 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units. Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 76 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 5 D₁: 4 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 65.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.77	60.03	66.4	0.0002	0.0002	0.19	0.1902	F	F	40.77	504.77	269	475.53116862601	0.94180593001128	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.79	57.14	64.965	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	40.79	504.79	269	475.53116862601	0.94201411401483	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-26 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	361	76	70.68	59.5	65.09	0.0016	0.0016	0.19	0.1916	F	F	38.68	502.68	269	475.53116862601	0.91664980374886	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-26 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	361	76	73.13	58.26	65.695	0.0001	0.0001	0.19	0.1901	F	F	41.13	491.13	268	475.06528244366	0.94546471128328	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.71	58.22	65.465	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	40.71	501.71	268	475.06528244366	0.94117786545537	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-25 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.27	59.23	65.75	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	40.27	501.27	268	475.06528244366	0.9364087816584	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.32	59.24	65.78	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	40.32	501.32	268	475.06528244366	0.93696536934779	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.64	57.94	65.29	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	40.64	501.64	268	475.06528244366	0.94043843685793	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-25 04:00:12	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.55	59.44	65.995	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	40.55	499.55	268	475.06528244366	0.9394770985151	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.83	59.46	66.145	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	40.83	491.83	268	475.06528244366	0.94242873154845	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.4	57.64	65.02	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	40.4	501.4	268	475.06528244366	0.93784803468431	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.38	59.03	65.705	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	40.38	501.38	268	475.06528244366	0.93762827441112	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-24 12:00:05	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.1	58.42	65.26	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	40.1	501.1	268	475.06528244366	0.93448784493545	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	361	76	71.72	58.63	65.175	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	39.72	498.72	268	475.06528244366	0.93003208972464	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-24 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	361	76	71.62	58.75	65.185	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	39.62	496.62	268	475.06528244366	0.92882174789368	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-24 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	361	76	71.88	59.06	65.47	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	39.88	485.88	268	475.06528244366	0.93193572620522	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	361	76	73.31	58.6	65.955	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	41.31	497.31	268	475.06528244366	0.94722482704402	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-23 16:00:05	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.27	57.76	65.015	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	40.27	495.27	268	475.06528244366	0.9364087816584	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.37	57.84	65.105	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	40.37	495.37	268	475.06528244366	0.937518168054	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-23 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	361	76	69.37	57.79	63.58	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	37.37	491.37	268	475.06528244366	0.89717423376407	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-23 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.13	55.5	63.815	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	40.13	490.13	268	475.06528244366	0.93483005413531	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-23 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.03	56.77	64.4	0	0	0.21	0.21	F	F	40.03	482.03	268	475.06528244366	0.93368395707249	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-22 20:00:05	FORECAST	2022	361	76	73.65	56	64.825	0	0	0.22	0.22	F	F	41.65	493.65	268	475.06528244366	0.95042667999161	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	361	76	73.31	56.7	65.005	0	0	0.21	0.21	F	F	41.31	495.31	268	475.06528244366	0.94722482704402	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-22 12:00:05	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.63	56.83	64.73	0	0	0.21	0.21	F	F	40.63	493.63	268	475.06528244366	0.94033221412235	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	361	76	68.81	54.84	61.825	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	36.81	484.81	268	475.06528244366	0.88791229957823	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-22 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	361	76	72.42	54.84	63.63	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	40.42	490.42	268	475.06528244366	0.93806719248999	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-22 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	361	76	73.43	56.06	64.745	0	0	0.21	0.21	F	F	41.43	482.43	268	475.06528244366	0.94837306725023	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-21 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	361	76	73.42	55.58	64.5	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	41.42	499.42	268	475.06528244366	0.94827814307796	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-21 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	361	76	73.23	56.43	64.83	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	41.23	500.23	268	475.06528244366	0.94644817972372	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-21 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	361	76	73.13	56.97	65.05	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	41.13	500.13	268	475.06528244366	0.94546471128328	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	361	76	73.03	56.88	64.955	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	41.03	498.03	268	475.06528244366	0.94446706208265	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-21 04:00:13	FORECAST	2022	361	76	73.03	56.88	64.955	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	41.03	501.03	268	475.06528244366	0.94446706208265	16	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2022-09-21 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	361	76	71.57	55.67	63.62	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	39.57	482.57	268	475.06528244366	0.92821060033458	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	361	76	71.42	55.65	63.535	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	39.42	496.42	268	475.06528244366	0.9263530854558	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-20 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	361	76	71.4	55.6	63.5	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	39.4	495.4	268	475.06528244366	0.92610267496884	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-20 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	361	76	69.79	54.86	62.325	0	0.01	0.19	0.2	F	F	37.79	491.79	268	475.06528244366	0.90374762220115	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-20 08:00:05	FORECAST	2022	361	76	70	55.38	62.69	0	0.01	0.19	0.2	F	F	38	482	268	475.06528244366	0.9069164574956	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2022	361	76	69.96	55.4	62.68	0	0.02	0.19	0.21	F	F	37.96	490.96	268	475.06528244366	0.90631887153183	16	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2022-09-20 00:00:19	FORECAST	2022	361	76	66.96	52.5	59.73	0	0.01	0.2	0.21	F	F	34.96	470.96	268	475.06528244366	0.85314376822187	16	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2022-09-19 20:00:15	FORECAST	2022	361	76	66.38	54.66	60.52	0	0.01	0.19	0.2	F	F	34.38	479.38	268	475.06528244366	0.840896018276	16	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2022-09-19 16:00:10	FORECAST	2022	361	76	66.37	54.64	60.505	0	0	0.22	0.22	F	F	34.37	478.37	268	475.06528244366	0.84067915989759	16	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2022-09-19 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	361	76	63.56	55.66	59.61	0	0	0.22	0.22	F	F	31.56	477.56	268	475.06528244366	0.77218495205755	16	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2022-09-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2022	361	76	57.66	55.28	56.47	0	0	0.23	0.23	F	F	25.66	464.66	268	475.06528244366	0.58662019828481	16	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2022-09-19 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	361	76	57.67	56.84	57.255	0	0	0.23	0.23	F	F	25.67	476.67	268	475.06528244366	0.5869681824131	16	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	DRY	L