Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 28, 2023

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DAY 120 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/28/2023 07:00:15 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 23.34°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 9.18°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 16.26°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.168 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records: Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 0 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.19 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.67 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.46 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.13 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5) Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 104 in SWE DAY: 28 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 363.10 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 37.76 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units. Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -164 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-28 07:00:15	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.342	9.176	16.259	103.98548787914	0.19291349	1.67291349	6.46	8.13291349	T	T	-8.658	0.342	28	363.10411721802	37.757558779841	0.16833902492164	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2023-01-28 03:00:11	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.594	9.734	16.664	104.01049462854	0.20078751	1.68078751	6.46	8.14078751	T	T	-8.406	0.594	28	363.11903030816	37.768189951387	0.17438747896984	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2023-01-27 23:00:01	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.17	10.256	17.213	100.8709791932	0.40157502	1.09157502	6.46	7.55157502	T	T	-7.83	-1.83	28	361.23931536387	36.438563463834	0.18872216770899	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-27 19:00:02	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.332	10.49	17.411	101.04417435439	0.43700811	1.12700811	6.46	7.58700811	T	T	-7.668	-1.668	28	361.34340322023	36.511645836793	0.19288082063265	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-27 15:00:02	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.954	10.688	17.321	100.47996303412	0.3149608	1.0049608	6.46	7.4649608	T	T	-8.046	-2.046	28	361.0041516973	36.27368381771	0.18326382991419	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-27 11:00:05	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.152	10.688	17.42	103.37224546176	0.38582698	1.07582698	6.46	7.53582698	T	T	-7.848	-1.848	28	362.73810577711	37.497052508726	0.18826352371984	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-27 07:00:16	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.782	11.408	18.095	103.19576966493	0.43700811	1.15700811	6.46	7.61700811	T	T	-7.218	-0.218	28	362.63267117645	37.422157607704	0.2047223825686	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-27 03:00:19	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.692	10.94	17.816	103.44735507656	0.4330711	1.2330711	6.46	7.6930711	T	T	-7.308	-1.308	28	362.78296531285	37.528938228444	0.20232016187427	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-26 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.386	10.166	17.276	103.90368995595	0.25984266	0.94984266	6.46	7.40984266	T	T	-7.614	-3.614	28	363.05532937836	37.722788380585	0.19427935656042	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-26 19:00:04	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.314	10.202	17.258	104.21915726385	0.25196864	1.04196864	6.46	7.50196864	T	T	-7.686	-3.686	28	363.24343197889	37.856924362469	0.19241600895913	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-26 11:00:05	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.846	11.228	17.537	104.29982120436	0.41338605	1.05338605	6.46	7.51338605	T	T	-8.154	-4.154	28	363.29150499552	37.891239016094	0.1805718775252	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-26 07:00:19	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.936	11.156	17.546	104.66573371346	0.40944904	1.02944904	6.46	7.48944904	T	T	-8.064	-4.064	28	363.50945300243	38.046983610277	0.182813445534	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-26 03:00:13	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.234	10.274	16.754	104.29144751954	0.34251987	0.93251987	6.46	7.39251987	T	T	-8.766	-5.766	28	363.28651501696	37.887676515447	0.16578853712176	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-25 23:00:07	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.206	10.292	17.249	104.5844012884	0.33464585	0.77464585	6.46	7.23464585	T	T	-7.794	-7.794	28	363.46102657947	38.01235385648	0.18964151494594	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-25 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.296	10.76	17.528	104.49577475095	0.29527575	0.74527575	6.46	7.20527575	T	T	-7.704	-7.704	28	363.40824575219	37.974626190759	0.19195188132342	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-25 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.792	11.192	17.492	105.26717528249	0.33858286	0.86858286	6.46	7.32858286	T	T	-8.208	-10.208	28	363.86724907181	38.303277487599	0.17923522786478	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-25 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.45	11.876	17.663	105.34270088909	0.39763801	0.92763801	6.46	7.38763801	T	T	-8.55	-10.55	28	363.91214044812	38.335487761133	0.17091454745167	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-25 07:00:15	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.396	11.894	17.645	105.46869637105	0.40944904	0.92944904	6.46	7.38944904	T	T	-8.604	-9.604	28	363.98701125645	38.389235573213	0.16962365818938	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-25 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.612	12.632	18.122	105.31514639836	0.42519708	0.92519708	6.46	7.38519708	T	T	-8.388	-9.388	28	363.8957634376	38.323735600172	0.1748247184313	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-24 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.638	15.854	20.246	105.22273406284	0.26771668	0.65771668	6.36	7.01771668	T	T	-7.362	-8.362	28	363.84082980047	38.284326875297	0.20088694020222	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-24 19:00:09	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.566	15.998	20.282	104.9228579237	0.26771668	0.59771668	6.36	6.95771668	T	T	-7.434	-8.434	28	363.66248243566	38.156506976778	0.1989854637599	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-24 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.8	16.916	20.858	104.74970106195	0.27952771	0.55952771	6.36	6.91952771	T	T	-7.2	-8.2	28	363.55943779991	38.08274242779	0.20520485052587	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-24 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.998	15.908	20.453	104.75366291536	0.20078751	0.63078751	6.36	6.99078751	T	T	-7.002	-7.002	28	363.56179598235	38.084429825236	0.21055635294636	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-24 07:00:27	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.98	15.692	20.336	104.65716728412	0.19291349	0.62291349	6.36	6.98291349	T	T	-7.02	-7.02	28	363.5043529062	38.043335870611	0.21006650112693	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-24 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.846	13.262	18.554	106.15625349494	0.31102379	0.89102379	6.36	7.25102379	T	T	-8.154	-8.154	28	364.39515925501	38.682824898204	0.1805718775252	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-23 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.864	10.418	17.141	107.72900701418	0.29133874	0.74133874	6.36	7.10133874	T	T	-8.136	-6.136	28	365.32610227671	39.35621823463	0.18101880985006	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-23 19:00:07	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.864	10.436	17.15	107.98074658648	0.33070884	0.78070884	6.36	7.14070884	T	T	-8.136	-6.136	28	365.47476679822	39.464238177391	0.18101880985006	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-23 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.45	10.94	17.195	108.32505048355	0.38188997	0.84188997	6.36	7.20188997	T	T	-8.55	-7.55	28	365.67794122448	39.612081443862	0.17091454745167	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-23 11:00:10	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.144	11.588	17.366	107.88490525722	0.22440957	0.77440957	6.36	7.13440957	T	T	-8.856	-7.856	28	365.41817901473	39.423105622271	0.16368226763681	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-23 07:00:27	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.126	11.534	17.33	107.65709476815	0.22440957	0.77440957	6.36	7.13440957	T	T	-8.874	-6.874	28	365.28361712189	39.325372985745	0.16326310221358	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-23 03:00:13	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.558	13.37	18.464	108.3902111068	0.26377967	0.89377967	6.36	7.25377967	T	T	-8.442	-8.442	28	365.7163726486	39.640074836595	0.17351508118861	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-22 23:00:05	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.998	18.608	21.803	99.645498474109	0.10629927	0.68629927	5.69	6.37629927	T	F	-7.002	-6.002	28	360.50150897766	35.922352562747	0.21055635294636	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-22 19:00:05	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.872	18.536	21.704	99.966188167428	0.1574804	0.7274804	5.69	6.4174804	T	T	-7.128	-7.128	28	360.69480361589	36.05728460928	0.20714145360579	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-22 15:00:10	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.882	16.808	20.345	99.890773423827	0.10236226	0.72236226	5.69	6.41236226	T	T	-8.118	-8.118	28	360.64936179033	36.025543684046	0.18146643303645	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-22 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.936	15.728	19.832	99.867572885009	0.0393701	0.6593701	5.69	6.3493701	T	F	-8.064	-9.064	28	360.63538034807	36.015780131824	0.182813445534	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-22 07:00:10	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.9	15.872	19.886	99.69341460374	0.02755907	0.65755907	5.69	6.34755907	T	F	-8.1	-9.1	28	360.53040027033	35.942506671403	0.18191474686344	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-22 03:00:23	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	24.422	18.266	21.344	99.985284829758	0.05511814	0.70511814	5.72	6.42511814	T	T	-7.578	-11.578	28	360.7063090988	36.065323055134	0.19521512787138	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-21 23:00:10	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	26.006	19.148	22.577	97.788828735567	0.01574804	0.31574804	5.75	6.06574804	T	F	-5.994	-14.994	28	359.37930763032	35.143281564968	0.23903838625417	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-21 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	25.898	19.832	22.865	97.985330748451	0.04724412	0.34724412	5.75	6.09724412	T	F	-6.102	-15.102	28	359.49832720787	35.225562494978	0.23588959598401	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-21 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	25.772	20.822	23.297	100.00366071817	0.16535442	0.59535442	5.81	6.40535442	T	F	-6.228	-15.228	28	360.71737979822	36.073058464488	0.23224503975041	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-21 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.882	19.85	21.866	106.9850000628	0.393701	1.023701	5.79	6.813701	T	T	-8.118	-15.118	28	364.8861737687	39.037347323557	0.18146643303645	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-21 07:00:19	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	23.846	19.814	21.83	106.9318043089	0.393701	1.023701	5.74	6.763701	T	T	-8.154	-16.154	28	364.85468746235	39.014570040909	0.1805718775252	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-21 03:00:17	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	26.42	21.218	23.819	102.32479369536	0	0.3	5.82	6.12	T	F	-5.58	-11.58	28	362.11161806937	37.05299661364	0.25131852070331	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-20 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	27.716	21.236	24.476	104.36862741991	0	0.35	5.88	6.23	T	F	-4.284	-12.284	28	363.33250342041	37.920514679028	0.29181076577768	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-20 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	28.274	21.758	25.016	103.98422767363	0	0.35	5.82	6.17	T	F	-3.726	-11.726	28	363.10336565351	37.757023043176	0.31013325027984	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-20 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	29.786	23.684	26.735	104.25781085006	0	0.04	5.87	5.91	T	F	-2.214	-11.214	28	363.26646945539	37.873366860649	0.36209371020538	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-20 11:00:10	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	30.344	24.08	27.212	103.32597794148	0	0.09	5.61	5.7	T	F	-1.656	-12.656	28	362.71046804457	37.477413820315	0.38199661583855	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-20 07:00:25	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	30.236	23.918	27.077	103.4370788667	0	0.07	5.69	5.76	T	F	-1.764	-10.764	28	362.77682830831	37.524575400739	0.37811815242413	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-20 03:00:19	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	28.382	22.406	25.394	102.09942971123	0	0.04	5.51	5.55	T	F	-3.618	-8.618	28	361.97660838036	36.957605284441	0.31373659478414	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-19 23:00:11	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	27.698	21.848	24.773	97.794660677669	0	0.04	5.17	5.21	T	F	-4.302	-10.302	28	359.38284084287	35.145722973606	0.29122819397922	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-19 19:00:10	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	27.698	21.848	24.773	98.728440568787	0	0.04	5.36	5.4	T	F	-4.302	-9.302	28	359.94788570936	35.537093442117	0.29122819397922	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-19 15:00:11	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	27.122	21.974	24.548	98.548376057697	0	0.04	5.32	5.36	T	F	-4.878	-10.878	28	359.83903012091	35.461552060592	0.2728787699128	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-19 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	34.178	22.01	28.094	99.639167618196	0.12204731	0.14204731	5.26	5.40204731	T	F	2.178	-12.822	28	360.49769149044	35.919689908388	0.52446086061793	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-19 07:00:19	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	34.16	22.154	28.157	99.005058777862	0.12204731	0.14204731	5.11	5.25204731	T	F	2.16	-17.84	28	360.11501458402	35.653208185681	0.5237848461008	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-19 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	37.238	22.712	29.975	97.827051019664	0.13779535	0.13779535	5.01	5.14779535	T	F	5.238	-4.762	28	359.40246319267	35.159283103342	0.63681167653952	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-18 23:00:09	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	32	32	32	92.692910265116	0	0	5.17	5.17	T	F	0	-9	28	356.2719162627	33.02388076412	0.44272674854123	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-18 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	32.054	32.054	32.054	92.309420992055	0	0	5.12	5.12	T	F	0.054000000000002	-7.946	28	356.03644068074	32.865517691311	0.44473826397414	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-18 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	26.636	26.636	26.636	92.687366408202	0	0	5.14	5.14	T	F	-5.364	-14.364	28	356.26851377788	33.021590276236	0.25785531097833	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-18 11:00:09	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	31.244	31.244	31.244	94.750671006688	0	0	5.05	5.05	T	F	-0.756	-5.756	28	357.53154201774	33.876353512237	0.4147434540891	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-18 07:00:32	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	31.244	31.244	31.244	94.371692672662	0	0	5.03	5.03	T	F	-0.756	-4.756	28	357.30005074638	33.719010580964	0.4147434540891	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-18 03:00:14	FORECAST	2023	120	-164	27.932	27.932	27.932	94.268571277572	0	0	5.02	5.02	T	F	-4.068	-7.068	28	357.23702254615	33.676223722879	0.29884354893322	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L