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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 21, 2024

[ Thursday, June 20, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 22, 2024 ]

DAY 265 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/21/2024 12:00:01 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.38°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.81°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.811
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 385

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 56 in
SWE DAY: 172
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.29 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 24.70 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -21

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-06-21 00:00:01FORECAST2024265-2164.38245.80655.09455.594888002.962.96FF32.382385.382172444.288194498624.7001524128720.81059835576575164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-20 20:00:01FORECAST2024265-2163.84246.47255.15759.9844336002.962.96FF31.842383.842172445.9913686346426.7525396380380.79553845008548164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-20 16:00:01FORECAST2024265-2163.17645.15854.16760.0856872002.962.96FF31.176383.176172446.030432102526.8000450249910.77601709451888164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-20 12:00:02FORECAST2024265-2162.83446.27454.55457.7283184002.962.96FF30.834382.834172445.1183522337725.6959339634340.76559549874087164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-20 08:00:01FORECAST2024265-2162.81646.6754.74357.6803976002.962.96FF30.816382.816172445.0997546982425.6735308226570.76503967219633164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-20 04:00:03FORECAST2024265-2162.85246.47254.66257.7659885002.962.96FF30.852382.852172445.132969996325.7135460257770.76615059813813164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-20 00:00:01FORECAST2024265-2162.56446.92254.74364.8026304002.962.96FF30.564378.564172447.8391301477429.0211536296220.75718224504642164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-19 20:00:02FORECAST2024265-2162.7847.15654.96868.5789472002.962.96FF30.78379.78172449.2716096594830.8105739972970.76392584113017164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-19 16:00:02FORECAST2024265-2162.02446.74254.38368.5564136002.962.96FF30.024379.024172449.2631026189830.7998670783660.73987751254119164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024265-2162.47446.59854.53666.5756216002.962.96FF30.474379.474172448.5133945362229.8600580371750.75434199510873164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-19 08:00:02FORECAST2024265-2162.31246.36454.33866.5636168002.962.96FF30.312379.312172448.5088393417229.8543705133550.74918497887607164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-19 04:00:03FORECAST2024265-2162.11446.41854.26666.854029483333002.962.96FF30.114379.114172448.6189968310829.9919876409290.74280507447293164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024265-2162.76245.9554.35667.6292582368320.0003937010.0003937012.952.950393701FF30.762375.762172448.9126540108730.3596298038820.76336783835561164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-18 20:00:02FORECAST2024265-2163.2345.84254.53669.606027200.012.952.96FF31.23377.23172449.6588435829531.2989656971550.77763824552724164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-18 16:00:02FORECAST2024265-2162.54645.37453.9669.6491264002.952.95FF30.546376.546172449.6750709458531.3194758552360.75661561834942164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024265-2163.5946.1354.8668.35889520548900.012.952.96FF31.59377.59172449.1885132657430.7060305058420.78827372624276164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-18 08:00:02FORECAST2024265-2162.8745.9554.4168.4130980276300.022.952.97FF30.87375.87172449.2089857353930.7317783760070.76670496952928164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-18 04:00:03FORECAST2024265-2163.4146.25654.83368.837602815308002.952.95FF31.41377.41172449.369224252430.933500176510.78299356919172164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024265-2163.01445.71654.36570.3954039179002.632.63FF31.014378.014172449.9557718288831.6748183030850.77111363131805164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-17 20:00:02FORECAST2024265-2163.10446.00454.55470.527223159435002.72.7FF31.104376.104172450.0052983528731.7376240998610.7738451689882164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-17 16:00:02FORECAST2024265-2161.71843.8852.79970.885393392342002.72.7FF29.718372.718172450.1397847274731.9083357219510.72979704812507164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024265-2163.06846.29254.6870.542543537285002.692.69FF31.068373.068172450.0110533797831.7449243253030.77275476668649164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024265-2164.27446.9455.60770.283051423781002.632.63FF32.274373.274172449.913546170431.621296901750.80764215738093164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024265-2163.30246.45454.87870.481717775507002.672.67FF31.302373.302172449.9882031517731.715941536850.77978935130116164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024265-2165.1247.0356.07569.309783847533002.512.51FF33.12373.12172449.5472563446931.1580231665020.83004445822667164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-16 20:00:04FORECAST2024265-2166.2946.16656.22869.40951499339002.582.58FF34.29378.29172449.5848318735831.205465128730.85815396140306165121124DRYL
2024-06-16 16:00:02FORECAST2024265-2166.30847.04856.67868.990275275929002.562.56FF34.308380.308172449.4268115457331.0060794449230.85856034087861165121124DRYL
2024-06-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024265-2166.12846.63456.38169.0737833542400.012.552.56FF34.128380.128172449.4583009310531.0457853052760.85446107820383165121124DRYL
2024-06-16 08:00:02FORECAST2024265-2164.32846.8555.58969.316881798302002.52.5FF32.328373.328172449.5499309417831.1613994255260.80912375990623164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-16 04:00:04FORECAST2024265-2164.70646.95855.83269.193749620141002.492.49FF32.706377.706172449.5035263509931.1028344557010.81929826255474164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024265-2162.04245.87853.9661.894325201896002.372.37FF30.042370.042172446.7265117664727.6498359955820.74046439426905164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-15 20:00:02FORECAST2024265-2162.07845.64453.86157.517486232123002.372.37FF30.078371.078172445.0365136564225.5973815470250.74163610593571164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024265-2161.44845.62653.53757.545230329032002.382.38FF29.448369.448172445.0472855676925.6103485553030.72074335775831164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024265-2164.45447.31855.88659.157504850954002.412.41FF32.454378.454172445.6719645732326.3648414061750.81255356709154164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024265-2164.90447.51656.2159.043934278241002.442.44FF32.904379.904172445.6280451309126.311633009250.82448974157856164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-15 04:00:05FORECAST2024265-2162.92445.87854.40158.836807126863002.262.26FF30.924372.924172445.547913327126.2146166422030.76836370716582164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024265-2165.46244.38454.92316.834031898064002.092.09FF33.462379.462172428.395198984937.21161844468960.83860677265087164121227DRYL
2024-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024265-2168.12645.8656.99317.678602144076002.112.11FF36.126386.126172428.758432367177.57984974173670.895601917583251651212116DRYL
2024-06-14 16:00:02FORECAST2024265-2166.66846.50856.58817.6659330729840.0102362260.0102362262.142.150236226FF34.668381.668172428.752989398577.57432161555710.8665228528401165121228DRYL
2024-06-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024265-2164.52646.16655.34616.9174030042560.0007874020.0007874022.12.100787402FF32.526379.526172428.431089963637.24794140846730.81449628193293164121227DRYL
2024-06-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024265-2161.62844.8753.24917.4561759156820.1086614760.1086614762.12.208661476FF29.628376.628172428.662846705337.48281406060540.726795505981891641222214DRYL
2024-06-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024265-2159.64844.9652.30417.7454071390470.1173228980.1173228982.172.287322898FF27.648371.648172428.787130666277.60900220965680.656920859125941631222212DRYL
2024-06-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024265-2159.19845.73452.46646.3261010253320.0586614490.0586614492.22.258661449FF27.198371.198172440.628848479620.4126165493420.64013940637348163121123DRYL
2024-06-13 20:00:02FORECAST2024265-2158.40646.79652.60150.180047001370.035433090.035433092.292.32543309FF26.406367.406172442.1608686404122.1876531705430.60995635275648163121123DRYL
2024-06-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024265-2160.5345.01452.77250.3941604822780.0720472830.0920472832.252.342047283FF28.53367.53172442.2455440657622.2865929202220.68890576214038163122126DRYL
2024-06-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024265-2166.27243.10654.68949.3516523791890.0003937010.0303937012.372.400393701FF34.272370.272172441.832829458621.8051802091540.85774679424034165121124DRYL
2024-06-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024265-2155.7637.25646.50850.8758944712320.0003937010.0303937012.422.450393701FF23.76356.76172442.4358870563222.5093215001640.50525943561447163121123DRYL
2024-06-13 04:00:06FORECAST2024265-2155.8537.25646.55350.1237782422340.0003937010.0303937012.492.520393701FF23.85356.85172442.1386084006222.1616575598030.5088686217765163121123DRYL
2024-06-13 00:00:04FORECAST2024265-2156.08440.31648.256.6197770707310.0007874020.0307874022.152.180787402FF24.084359.084172444.6875595098425.1781104855750.51824837155247163121123DRYL
2024-06-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024265-2158.20839.95649.08257.7513157890380.0102362260.0402362262.052.090236226FF26.208364.208172445.1272764637625.7066859093730.60229766079985163121123DRYL
2024-06-12 16:00:04FORECAST2024265-2158.89239.88449.38858.6537966459260.0102362260.0402362262.072.110236226FF26.892360.892172445.4770765114726.1289218561260.62856938253279163121123DRYL
2024-06-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024265-2167.71239.1153.41156.6404382898330.0783464990.1883464991.852.038346499FF35.712370.712172444.695599810625.1877536788320.88785441616483165122128DRYL
2024-06-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024265-2164.97639.14652.06156.1543604965120.0771653960.1371653961.861.997165396FF32.976366.976172444.506331083324.9609687586330.82635393395619164122127DRYL
2024-06-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024265-2164.97637.77851.37755.8055453114220.102362260.102362262.042.14236226FF32.976373.976172444.3703655159124.7983305678510.82635393395619164122127DRYL
2024-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2024265-2146.38244.13245.25764.692597605906002.322.32FF14.382349.382172447.7971847798428.969163084020.17624560861755161121122DRYL
2024-06-11 20:00:04FORECAST2024265-2149.4643.35846.40968.85837912080900.023.073.09FF17.46348.46172449.3770622843530.9433761229710.26755768425518162121122.5DRYL
2024-06-11 16:00:04FORECAST2024265-2149.58639.81244.69968.6757246163700.092.973.06FF17.586347.586172449.3081402033330.8565621044970.27174395378289162122125DRYL
2024-06-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024265-2151.8944.6948.2963.99935626054200.62.042.64FF19.89368.89172447.5326459508328.641801246430.35349707317966162123127.5DRYL
2024-06-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024265-2143.01639.52441.2763.9514525212910.0102362260.5602362262.012.570236226FF11.016356.016172447.5143488150528.6191926308420.10230312644817161123126DRYL
2024-06-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024265-2140.98240.08240.53263.48701588556400.651.912.56FF8.982355.982172447.3368388351428.4000809933240.070313087749501161123126DRYL