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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 8, 2025

[ Monday, July 7, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 9, 2025 ]

DAY 281 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/08/2025 12:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.99°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.82°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.708
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -437

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.90 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 188
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -4

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-08 12:00:01FORECAST2025281-466.99248.6557.8210000.90.9FF34.992-437.008188431.4259082823800.708384159315231641115215DRYL
2025-07-08 08:00:01FORECAST2025281-467.71248.45258.0820000.90.9FF35.712-436.288188431.4259082823800.731359302250931641115215DRYL
2025-07-08 04:00:03FORECAST2025281-467.29848.61457.9560000.90.9FF35.298-436.702188431.4259082823800.71825991248181641115215DRYL
2025-07-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025281-46848.39858.1990000.90.9FF36-441188431.4259082823800.740288069448821641115130DRYL
2025-07-07 20:00:01FORECAST2025281-467.80249.15458.4780000.90.9FF35.802-442.198188431.4259082823800.734166007175991641115215DRYL
2025-07-07 16:00:01FORECAST2025281-467.62249.08258.3520000.90.9FF35.622-442.378188431.4259082823800.728537802908431641115215DRYL
2025-07-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025281-468.10849.4658.7840000.90.9FF36.108-441.892188431.4259082823800.743596480484461641115130DRYL
2025-07-07 11:20:57FORECAST2025281-468.10849.4658.7840000.90.9FF36.108-441.892188431.4259082823800.743596480484461641115130DRYL
2025-07-07 08:00:01FORECAST2025281-467.74849.60458.67600000FF35.748-441.252188431.4259082823800.732483766618871641115215DRYL
2025-07-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025281-467.26249.40658.334NAN0000FF35.262-441.738188NANNAN0.717106461391261641115215DRYL
2025-07-07 00:00:01FORECAST2025281-467.6449.69458.66700000FF35.64-380.36188431.4259082823800.72910328023161641115215DRYL
2025-07-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025281-467.53249.78458.65800000FF35.532-381.468188431.4259082823800.725701637048961641115215DRYL
2025-07-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025281-466.79449.60458.19900000FF34.794-382.206188431.4259082823800.701909259311941641115215DRYL
2025-07-06 12:00:01FORECAST2025281-467.15449.58658.3700000FF35.154-380.846188431.4259082823800.713632582183891641115215DRYL
2025-07-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025281-468.23450.10859.17100000FF36.234-377.766188431.4259082823800.747428391013471641115130DRYL
2025-07-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025281-467.7350.16258.946NAN0000FF35.73-378.27188NANNAN0.731921830832611641115215DRYL
2025-07-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025281-467.44249.85658.64900000FF35.442-322.558188431.4259082823800.722850935379671641115215DRYL
2025-07-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025281-467.7350.19858.96400000FF35.73-321.27188431.4259082823800.731921830832611641115215DRYL
2025-07-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025281-468.14450.46859.30600000FF36.144-320.856188431.4259082823800.744694390368131641115130DRYL
2025-07-05 12:00:01FORECAST2025281-469.24250.82860.03500000FF37.242-317.758188431.4259082823800.77696792007831641115130DRYL
2025-07-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025281-469.85451.29660.57500000FF37.854-317.146188431.4259082823800.793899329839531641115130DRYL
2025-07-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025281-469.69251.04460.368NAN0000FF37.692-316.308188NANNAN0.789493131603171641115130DRYL
2025-07-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025281-470.71851.67461.19600000FF38.718-265.282188431.4259082823800.816462096183951641115130DRYL
2025-07-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025281-469.38651.56660.47600000FF37.386-267.614188431.4259082823800.781021391572381641115130DRYL
2025-07-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025281-470.21452.05261.13300000FF38.214-266.786188431.4259082823800.803493328838421641115130DRYL
2025-07-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025281-472.51852.7962.65400000FF40.518-264.482188431.4259082823800.858301114127451651115135DRYL
2025-07-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025281-469.4452.35860.89900000FF37.44-269.56188431.4259082823800.78253047010171641115130DRYL
2025-07-04 04:00:05FORECAST2025281-471.99653.25862.627NAN0000FF39.996-266.004188NANNAN0.846891322670011641115130DRYL
2025-07-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025281-471.85253.18662.5190000.030.03FF39.852-212.148188431.4259082823800.843639783723481641115130DRYL
2025-07-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025281-471.85253.20462.5280000.030.03FF39.852-212.148188431.4259082823800.843639783723481641115130DRYL
2025-07-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025281-472.3252.44862.3840000.060.06FF40.32-207.68188431.4259082823800.854042759151091651115135DRYL
2025-07-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025281-470.50253.52862.01500.0051181130.0051181130.060.065118113FF38.502-208.498188431.4259082823800.810970569119651641115130DRYL
2025-07-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025281-470.9754.28462.62700.0055118140.0055118140.060.065511814FF38.97-207.03188431.4259082823800.822742072224641641115130DRYL
2025-07-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025281-472.42854.0563.239NAN000.040.04FF40.428-204.572188NANNAN0.856376013512271651115135DRYL
2025-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025281-470.73651.65661.19600000FF38.736-157.264188431.4259082823800.816915201526591641115130DRYL
2025-07-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025281-470.64651.0860.86300000FF38.646-155.354188431.4259082823800.814642711004031641115130DRYL
2025-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025281-470.44850.4560.4490000.090.09FF38.448-159.552188431.4259082823800.809582067635841641115130DRYL
2025-07-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025281-469.20648.09258.6490000.010.01FF37.206-156.794188431.4259082823800.775947927746861641115130DRYL
2025-07-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025281-468.7248.25458.48700000FF36.72-159.28188431.4259082823800.761921806757671641115130DRYL
2025-07-02 04:00:05FORECAST2025281-468.7248.25458.487NAN0000FF36.72-160.28188NANNAN0.761921806757671641115130DRYL
2025-07-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025281-466.00247.01256.50700000FF34.002-104.998188431.4259082823800.675380128682521631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025281-465.346.27455.78700000FF33.3-110.7188431.4259082823800.651092286887571631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025281-465.35446.455.87700000FF33.354-110.646188431.4259082823800.652984307317021631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025281-467.51447.357.4070000.010.01FF35.514-109.486188431.4259082823800.725132655348011641115215DRYL
2025-07-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025281-468.52250.12659.32400000FF36.522-106.478188431.4259082823800.756072634961371641115130DRYL
2025-07-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025281-470.01652.8861.448NAN0000FF38.016-102.984188NANNAN0.798250480308481641115130DRYL
2025-07-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025281-469.06253.02461.04300.0133858340.01338583400.013385834FF37.062-29.938188431.4259082823800.771841610522271641115130DRYL
2025-06-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025281-469.06251.15260.10700.0133858340.01338583400.013385834FF37.062-24.938188431.4259082823800.771841610522271641115130DRYL
2025-06-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025281-465.24647.6656.45300.0129921330.01299213300.012992133FF33.246-24.754188431.4259082823800.649196504297841631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025281-469.18850.1859.68400.0043307110.0043307110.050.054330711FF37.188-30.812188431.4259082823800.775436941303721641115130DRYL
2025-06-30 08:00:03FORECAST2025281-469.18850.1859.68400.0043307110.0043307110.070.074330711FF37.188-31.812188431.4259082823800.775436941303721641115130DRYL
2025-06-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025281-467.9150.50459.207NAN0.0192913490.0192913490.060.079291349FF35.91-32.09188NANNAN0.737514348540161641115215DRYL
2025-06-30 00:00:03FORECAST2025281-465.40846.79656.10200000FF33.40835.408188431.4259082823800.654872523647821631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025281-465.40846.79656.10200000FF33.40834.408188431.4259082823800.654872523647821631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-29 16:00:03FORECAST2025281-46848.32658.16300000FF3639188431.4259082823800.740288069448821641115130DRYL
2025-06-29 12:00:05FORECAST2025281-469.9840.26255.12100.0389763990.10897639900.108976399FF37.9832.98188431.4259082823800.797288332183841641125160DRYH
2025-06-29 08:00:04FORECAST2025281-469.9840.26255.12100.0381889970.10818899700.108188997FF37.9831.98188431.4259082823800.797288332183841641125160DRYH
2025-06-29 04:00:06FORECAST2025281-470.01641.57655.796NAN0.0405512030.11055120300.110551203FF38.01635.016188NANNAN0.798250480308481641125160DRYH
2025-06-29 00:00:03FORECAST2025281-439.07435.47437.274000.1900.19FF7.07449.074188431.4259082823800.0178036558984271611125215DRYL
2025-06-28 20:00:03FORECAST2025281-439.07435.47437.274000.1900.19FF7.07459.074188431.4259082823800.0178036558984271611125215DRYL
2025-06-28 16:00:03FORECAST2025281-438.5732.73835.654000.1700.17FF6.5750.57188431.4259082823800.015799615562461611125215DRYL
2025-06-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025281-442.58438.49840.54100000FF10.58479.584188431.4259082823800.038616061037724161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-28 08:00:03FORECAST2025281-442.58438.49840.54100000FF10.58471.584188431.4259082823800.038616061037724161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025281-447.08445.80646.445NAN000.020.02FF15.08481.084188NANNAN0.090268041939751161111527.5DRYL