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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 26, 2022

[ Sunday, September 25, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 27, 2022 ]

DAY 361 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/26/2022 12:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.77°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 60.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 66.40°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.942
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 41
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 505

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 268
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 475.53 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 76

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-26 12:00:02FORECAST20223617672.7760.0366.400.00020.00020.190.1902FF40.77504.77269475.5311686260100.941805930011281654415165DRYH
2022-09-26 08:00:02FORECAST20223617672.7957.1464.9650000.190.19FF40.79504.79269475.5311686260100.942014114014831654415165DRYH
2022-09-26 04:00:09FORECAST20223617670.6859.565.0900.00160.00160.190.1916FF38.68502.68269475.5311686260100.916649803748861654415165DRYH
2022-09-26 00:00:04FORECAST20223617673.1358.2665.69500.00010.00010.190.1901FF41.13491.13268475.0652824436600.945464711283281654315160DRYH
2022-09-25 20:00:02FORECAST20223617672.7158.2265.4650000.190.19FF40.71501.71268475.0652824436600.941177865455371654415165DRYH
2022-09-25 16:00:01FORECAST20223617672.2759.2365.750000.190.19FF40.27501.27268475.0652824436600.93640878165841654415165DRYH
2022-09-25 12:00:02FORECAST20223617672.3259.2465.780000.190.19FF40.32501.32268475.0652824436600.936965369347791654415165DRYH
2022-09-25 08:00:03FORECAST20223617672.6457.9465.290000.190.19FF40.64501.64268475.0652824436600.940438436857931654415165DRYH
2022-09-25 04:00:12FORECAST20223617672.5559.4465.9950000.190.19FF40.55499.55268475.0652824436600.93947709851511654415165DRYH
2022-09-25 00:00:03FORECAST20223617672.8359.4666.1450000.190.19FF40.83491.83268475.0652824436600.942428731548451654315160DRYH
2022-09-24 20:00:02FORECAST20223617672.457.6465.020000.190.19FF40.4501.4268475.0652824436600.937848034684311654415165DRYH
2022-09-24 16:00:04FORECAST20223617672.3859.0365.7050000.190.19FF40.38501.38268475.0652824436600.937628274411121654415165DRYH
2022-09-24 12:00:05FORECAST20223617672.158.4265.260000.190.19FF40.1501.1268475.0652824436600.934487844935451654415165DRYH
2022-09-24 08:00:02FORECAST20223617671.7258.6365.1750000.190.19FF39.72498.72268475.0652824436600.930032089724641654315160DRYH
2022-09-24 04:00:07FORECAST20223617671.6258.7565.1850000.190.19FF39.62496.62268475.0652824436600.928821747893681654315160DRYH
2022-09-24 00:00:04FORECAST20223617671.8859.0665.470000.190.19FF39.88485.88268475.0652824436600.931935726205221654315160DRYH
2022-09-23 20:00:02FORECAST20223617673.3158.665.9550000.190.19FF41.31497.31268475.0652824436600.947224827044021654315160DRYH
2022-09-23 16:00:05FORECAST20223617672.2757.7665.0150000.190.19FF40.27495.27268475.0652824436600.93640878165841654315160DRYH
2022-09-23 12:00:03FORECAST20223617672.3757.8465.1050000.190.19FF40.37495.37268475.0652824436600.9375181680541654315160DRYH
2022-09-23 08:00:02FORECAST20223617669.3757.7963.580000.190.19FF37.37491.37268475.0652824436600.897174233764071654315160DRYH
2022-09-23 04:00:09FORECAST20223617672.1355.563.8150000.190.19FF40.13490.13268475.0652824436600.934830054135311654315160DRYH
2022-09-23 00:00:03FORECAST20223617672.0356.7764.40000.210.21FF40.03482.03268475.0652824436600.933683957072491654315160DRYH
2022-09-22 20:00:05FORECAST20223617673.655664.8250000.220.22FF41.65493.65268475.0652824436600.950426679991611654315160DRYH
2022-09-22 16:00:03FORECAST20223617673.3156.765.0050000.210.21FF41.31495.31268475.0652824436600.947224827044021654315160DRYH
2022-09-22 12:00:05FORECAST20223617672.6356.8364.730000.210.21FF40.63493.63268475.0652824436600.940332214122351654315160DRYH
2022-09-22 08:00:04FORECAST20223617668.8154.8461.8250000.20.2FF36.81484.81268475.0652824436600.887912299578231654315160DRYH
2022-09-22 04:00:09FORECAST20223617672.4254.8463.630000.20.2FF40.42490.42268475.0652824436600.938067192489991654315160DRYH
2022-09-22 00:00:04FORECAST20223617673.4356.0664.7450000.210.21FF41.43482.43268475.0652824436600.948373067250231654315160DRYH
2022-09-21 20:00:04FORECAST20223617673.4255.5864.50000.190.19FF41.42499.42268475.0652824436600.948278143077961654415165DRYH
2022-09-21 16:00:04FORECAST20223617673.2356.4364.830000.20.2FF41.23500.23268475.0652824436600.946448179723721654415165DRYH
2022-09-21 12:00:04FORECAST20223617673.1356.9765.050000.190.19FF41.13500.13268475.0652824436600.945464711283281654415165DRYH
2022-09-21 08:00:03FORECAST20223617673.0356.8864.9550000.190.19FF41.03498.03268475.0652824436600.944467062082651654315160DRYH
2022-09-21 04:00:13FORECAST20223617673.0356.8864.9550000.190.19FF41.03501.03268475.0652824436600.944467062082651654415165DRYH
2022-09-21 00:00:05FORECAST20223617671.5755.6763.620000.190.19FF39.57482.57268475.0652824436600.928210600334581654315160DRYH
2022-09-20 20:00:03FORECAST20223617671.4255.6563.5350000.190.19FF39.42496.42268475.0652824436600.92635308545581654315160DRYH
2022-09-20 16:00:04FORECAST20223617671.455.663.50000.190.19FF39.4495.4268475.0652824436600.926102674968841654315160DRYH
2022-09-20 12:00:04FORECAST20223617669.7954.8662.325000.010.190.2FF37.79491.79268475.0652824436600.903747622201151654315160DRYH
2022-09-20 08:00:05FORECAST2022361767055.3862.69000.010.190.2FF38482268475.0652824436600.90691645749561654315160DRYH
2022-09-20 04:00:12FORECAST20223617669.9655.462.68000.020.190.21FF37.96490.96268475.0652824436600.906318871531831654315160DRYH
2022-09-20 00:00:19FORECAST20223617666.9652.559.73000.010.20.21FF34.96470.96268475.0652824436600.853143768221871654315230DRYL
2022-09-19 20:00:15FORECAST20223617666.3854.6660.52000.010.190.2FF34.38479.38268475.0652824436600.8408960182761644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-19 16:00:10FORECAST20223617666.3754.6460.5050000.220.22FF34.37478.37268475.0652824436600.840679159897591644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-19 12:00:04FORECAST20223617663.5655.6659.610000.220.22FF31.56477.56268475.0652824436600.772184952057551644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-19 08:00:11FORECAST20223617657.6655.2856.470000.230.23FF25.66464.66268475.0652824436600.586620198284811634315225DRYL
2022-09-19 04:00:07FORECAST20223617657.6756.8457.2550000.230.23FF25.67476.67268475.0652824436600.58696818241311634315225DRYL