Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 7, 2023

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DAY 250 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/07/2023 12:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.53°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.91°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.22°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.872 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records: Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 33 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 381 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5) Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 55 in SWE DAY: 157 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.61 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 23.92 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units. Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -34 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-07 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	250	-34	64.526	49.91	57.218	54.9095512	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	32.526	380.526	158	435.61250352508	23.919287065671	0.8719941703696	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	250	-34	65.318	50.63	57.974	54.8030824	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	33.318	381.318	158	435.56861006057	23.870502428003	0.88612335426682	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-07 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	250	-34	65.336	49.244	57.29	54.560715686957	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	33.336	381.336	158	435.46864623176	23.759480997635	0.88643105322937	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	66.362	47.588	56.975	51.1130232	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	34.362	375.362	157	433.41611315707	22.153207847051	0.90300422825963	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	66.668	48.974	57.821	56.7089136	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	34.668	375.668	157	435.73747850179	24.71019902064	0.90758631655482	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	67.154	49.316	58.235	56.6168112	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	35.154	376.154	157	435.69953774818	24.667918468616	0.91453252285696	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	67.748	48.974	58.361	53.668452	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	35.748	376.748	157	434.48028598858	23.317884373524	0.92248384402269	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	67.784	51.152	59.468	53.662548	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	35.784	376.784	157	434.47783530202	23.315187691831	0.92294711329497	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-06 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	66.596	50.828	58.712	54.2627855	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	34.596	374.596	157	434.72679943146	23.589487068651	0.90652281253671	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-06 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	68.774	52.394	60.584	52.9054784	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.774	381.774	157	434.16327919979	22.969615989778	0.93488114086097	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-06-05 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	69.44	51.152	60.296	57.2244712	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	37.44	383.44	157	435.94969398744	24.946990708233	0.94206864045296	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-06-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	67.64	51.908	59.774	57.3072256	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	35.64	379.64	157	435.98373174504	24.985018073043	0.92108138827459	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	67.604	51.242	59.423	55.0104712	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	35.604	379.604	157	435.03639112473	23.931556864919	0.92060967123382	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-05 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	68.234	51.746	59.99	54.9102016	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.234	380.234	157	434.99490695921	23.885658036104	0.92856236139736	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-06-05 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	69.368	51.926	60.647	54.483615885714	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	37.368	382.368	157	434.81829911363	23.690473188987	0.94132293693582	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-06-05 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	68.198	51.602	59.9	54.2666264	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.198	381.198	157	434.72839132284	23.591243197389	0.92812499188728	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-06-04 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	68.684	51.386	60.035	57.8339416	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.684	382.684	157	436.20020798389	25.227177354448	0.93385912830677	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-06-04 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	69.188	52.574	60.881	57.6204136	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	37.188	384.188	157	436.11248451684	25.128981733984	0.93942582077212	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-06-04 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	68.378	51.332	59.855	56.1155824	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.378	382.378	157	435.49290540273	24.437938017742	0.93029150489594	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-06-04 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	69.476	51.638	60.557	55.8727312	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	37.476	385.476	157	435.39269497406	24.326579012729	0.94243869782294	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-06-04 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	68.288	52.142	60.215	55.424574072727	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.288	383.288	157	435.20760447829	24.121196111421	0.9292145950308	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-06-04 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	65.39	50.846	58.118	54.51796	0.00393701	0.00393701	0.3	0.30393701	F	F	33.39	375.39	157	434.83252477044	23.706182192134	0.8873506032476	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-03 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	66.416	51.26	58.838	58.1011176	0.00393701	0.00393701	0.3	0.30393701	F	F	34.416	374.416	157	436.30990460936	25.350093077753	0.90382468638421	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-03 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	66.218	49.856	58.037	58.2442896	0.00393701	0.00393701	0.3	0.30393701	F	F	34.218	374.218	157	436.36865727573	25.415982446731	0.90079132669769	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	65.246	48.038	56.642	57.768624	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	33.246	367.246	157	436.17337867884	25.197135911707	0.88488663758621	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	62.888	48.002	55.445	58.2116208	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	30.888	360.888	157	436.35525305038	25.400946524657	0.83904245970709	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-03 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	66.128	50.162	58.145	57.496605547826	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	34.128	370.128	157	436.0615987994	25.072061740723	0.89938970697768	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-03 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	67.172	50.558	58.865	58.2091416	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	35.172	374.172	157	436.35423577276	25.399805497857	0.91478209238208	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-02 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	65.138	48.704	56.921	61.1655304	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	33.138	368.138	157	437.56277639417	26.763759301446	0.88301376227277	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-02 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	66.182	50.972	58.577	60.4680712	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	34.182	372.182	157	437.2784798201	26.44138625199	0.90023239627869	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-02 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	68.702	51.17	59.936	58.2858544	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.702	381.702	157	436.38570998115	25.435113954202	0.93406451528926	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-06-02 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	69.638	52.448	61.043	58.1723992	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	37.638	379.638	157	436.33915869835	25.382895726393	0.94408107311927	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-06-02 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	69.026	52.52	60.773	57.739896690909	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	37.026	378.026	157	436.16157748287	25.183924424405	0.93767783637164	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-06-02 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	65.786	50.684	58.235	66.2431096	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	33.786	379.786	157	439.61737615298	29.121622030566	0.89393228436991	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-01 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	64.472	50.09	57.281	69.4032848	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	32.472	362.472	157	440.88280076415	30.598714584856	0.87098843619063	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-01 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	63.824	49.658	56.741	69.4967648	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	31.824	363.824	157	440.92007837657	30.642518982534	0.8584928957742	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-01 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	64.634	46.832	55.733	68.5021376	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	32.634	365.634	157	440.52299028566	30.176766496511	0.87398931455728	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	65.156	48.452	56.804	68.07272	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	33.156	368.156	157	440.3512422753	29.975906817059	0.88332739404941	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-01 04:00:23	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	63.95	47.894	55.922	68.770303116667	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	31.95	365.95	157	440.63014962752	30.302268952227	0.86098449264559	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-01 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	70.628	51.368	60.998	60.0698864	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	38.628	391.628	157	437.1159467402	26.257505264312	0.95333129460152	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-31 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	70.376	51.8	61.088	60.1776344	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	38.376	392.376	157	437.15994408617	26.307251289542	0.9511015717316	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-31 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	67.748	48.83	58.289	60.7811216	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	35.748	383.748	157	437.40614693934	26.586036205708	0.92248384402269	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-31 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	66.434	42.386	54.41	61.6598336	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	34.434	372.434	157	437.76395828765	26.992452824094	0.90409703924412	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-31 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	66.344	46.202	56.273	61.8617504	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	34.344	372.344	157	437.84606598967	27.085924047875	0.90272960744902	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-31 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	68.612	47.696	58.154	60.843733854545	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.612	376.612	157	437.43166907006	26.614976052449	0.93303263833604	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-31 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	68.162	50.27	59.216	60.5737928	0	0.09	0.3	0.39	F	F	36.162	378.162	157	437.32160618625	26.490228360089	0.9276855788356	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-30 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	67.82	51.494	59.657	63.2716848	0	0.03	0.3	0.33	F	F	35.82	370.82	157	438.41823133977	27.739460143903	0.92340828253905	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-30 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	69.746	50.72	60.233	62.8394136	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	37.746	374.746	157	438.24302916029	27.53893496672	0.94515536420761	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-30 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	68.09	50.774	59.432	60.3428088	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.09	386.09	157	437.22736730313	26.3835274273	0.92680060207693	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-30 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	67.856	51.548	59.702	60.0086424	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	35.856	387.856	157	437.09093326597	26.22923351064	0.92386735656254	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-30 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	68.306	51.926	60.116	59.480565090909	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.306	386.306	157	436.87509271023	25.985577388548	0.92943098993206	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-30 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	70.034	53.276	61.655	55.5525592	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	38.034	408.034	157	435.26048428833	24.179833820848	0.94794074033889	16	5	1	3	1	1	1	9	DRY	L
2023-05-29 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	71.996	54.14	63.068	57.9203784	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	39.996	420.996	157	436.23570519101	25.266937116254	0.96405437412125	16	5	1	3	1	1	1	9	DRY	L
2023-05-29 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	62.942	47.732	55.337	60.7668936	0	0.13	0.3	0.43	F	F	30.942	395.942	157	437.40034672792	26.579460330219	0.84020979910764	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-29 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	67.73	48.002	57.866	59.0276736	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	35.73	396.73	157	436.68975202961	25.776780147269	0.92225142037929	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-29 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	74.714	55.274	64.994	58.0129728	0.08661422	0.08661422	0.3	0.38661422	F	F	42.714	403.714	157	436.27372250948	25.309535597297	0.97942168134243	16	5	1	3	1	1	1	9	DRY	L
2023-05-29 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	74.156	56.696	65.426	57.312210419048	0.08661422	0.19661422	0.3	0.49661422	F	F	42.156	410.156	157	435.98578182524	24.987308867681	0.97682617635738	16	5	1	3	2	1	1	18	DRY	L
2023-05-29 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	48.236	41.666	44.951	62.0147632	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	16.236	370.236	157	437.90825926661	27.156777001743	0.37886194844448	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-28 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	48.254	41.702	44.978	64.055304	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	16.254	385.254	157	438.73534700169	28.103326027739	0.37946909169373	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-28 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	51.818	45.014	48.416	63.3416088	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	19.818	393.818	157	438.44655389666	27.77191009663	0.50361460210862	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-28 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	48.542	40.874	44.708	62.2052856	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	16.542	380.542	157	437.98566484226	27.245023370218	0.38922285437663	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-28 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	48.542	40.802	44.672	62.5723176	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	16.542	370.542	157	438.13467731497	27.415102180526	0.38922285437663	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-28 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	250	-35	43.43	42.35	42.89	64.12294792381	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	11.43	358.43	157	438.76269161752	28.134757225501	0.2313091389425	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L