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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 16, 2024

[ Thursday, February 15, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 17, 2024 ]

DAY 139 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/17/2024 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.96°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.127
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 20

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.60 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.52 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.12 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 112 in
SWE DAY: 47
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 383.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.82 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -146

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-17 07:00:05OBSERVATION2024139-14624.6214.9599419.78997111.6205116666700.64.525.12TF-7.3819.6247383.65427747956 42.8236867553740.1271562650400216 1113124.5WETL
2024-02-17 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024139-14624.6214.9599419.78997111.6205116666700.64.525.12TF-7.3819.6247383.65427747956 42.8236867553740.1271562650400216 1113124.5WETL
2024-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2024139-14626.70814.28820.49811200.64.525.12TF-5.29221.70847383.8606895137642.9923972255410.18803190105806161113124.5WETL
2024-02-16 07:00:07FORECAST2024139-14626.47414.07220.273111.9518758333300.64.525.12TF-5.52621.47447383.8345247374942.9709950539580.18043323873657161113124.5WETL
2024-02-16 03:00:05FORECAST2024139-14626.31212.43419.373111.9518758333300.64.525.12TF-5.68821.31247383.8345247374942.9709950539580.17528689051878161113124.5WETL
2024-02-15 23:00:02FORECAST2024139-14626.52814.97220.7510800.734.525.25TF-5.47219.52847381.6749654427941.2208962678220.18216949233669161113124.5WETL
2024-02-15 19:00:01FORECAST2024139-14626.13214.57620.35410800.734.525.25TF-5.86819.13247381.6749654427941.2208962678220.16967879473178161113124.5WETL
2024-02-15 15:00:02FORECAST2024139-14626.6916.17821.43410800.734.525.25TF-5.3119.6947381.6749654427941.2208962678220.18744048483386161113124.5WETL
2024-02-15 11:00:02FORECAST2024139-14627.26616.08821.677110.0342212924900.734.525.25TF-4.73420.26647382.7893020244642.1199227673580.20693163998687161113124.5WETL
2024-02-15 07:00:06FORECAST2024139-14625.98815.49420.741110.016287850600.774.525.29TF-6.01216.98847382.7795033062842.1119800190540.16527593169344161113124.5WETL
2024-02-15 03:00:05FORECAST2024139-14626.34815.76421.056110.1188588402100.84.525.32TF-5.65217.34847382.8355414166142.1574129442720.17642242309705161113124.5WETL
2024-02-14 23:00:02FORECAST2024139-14625.89814.93620.417109.4839050103300.814.525.33TF-6.10213.89847382.4884093233541.876324673910.16256193553838161113124.5WETL
2024-02-14 19:00:03FORECAST2024139-14626.45616.05221.254109.1891470668600.754.525.27TF-5.54415.45647382.3270734712341.7459670528950.17985679676934161113124.5WETL
2024-02-14 15:00:02FORECAST2024139-14628.11216.17822.145109.472367700420.0523622330.8223622334.525.342362233TF-3.88817.11247382.4820966443441.8712207226770.23763119366833161113124.5WETL
2024-02-14 11:00:02FORECAST2024139-14628.2215.85422.037112.230587410020.0255905651.0755905654.525.595590565TF-3.7818.2247383.9860139258543.0949759001290.24172225346467161114126WETL
2024-02-14 07:00:05FORECAST2024139-14628.00415.4421.722111.762889964320.0598425521.0498425524.525.569842552TF-3.99618.00447383.7317434820642.8869686226040.23357835754405161114126WETL
2024-02-14 03:00:07FORECAST2024139-14627.82417.16822.496111.561099776150.0543307380.9643307384.525.484330738TF-4.17618.82447383.621944031742.7972859744420.22690947947562161113124.5WETL
2024-02-13 23:00:02FORECAST2024139-14628.32818.0523.189108.9222098077600.774.515.28TF-3.67211.32847382.180861016141.6279839281050.24585118366879161113124.5WETL
2024-02-13 19:00:03FORECAST2024139-14628.97618.35623.666109.2227194579100.824.515.33TF-3.02410.97647382.3454554258941.7608104139870.27139819537031162113126WETL
2024-02-13 15:00:03FORECAST2024139-14628.97619.424.188108.826973924300.754.515.26TF-3.02412.97647382.128672429141.5859070701690.27139819537031162113126WETL
2024-02-13 11:00:03FORECAST2024139-14629.04819.29224.17110.25653500520.035433091.035433094.515.54543309TF-2.95213.04847382.9107357629242.2184109415130.27431618074762162114128WETL
2024-02-13 07:00:06FORECAST2024139-14629.82219.8524.836112.285964275680.0842520141.5042520144.516.014252014TT-2.17814.82247384.0161003604843.1196181263630.30662506442731621151210WETL
2024-02-13 03:00:07FORECAST2024139-14630.23621.79426.015112.363771216110.1232284131.5332284134.516.043228413TT-1.76415.23647384.0583659795443.1542463685570.324567651349841621151210WETL
2024-02-12 23:00:03FORECAST2024139-14628.02218.37423.198104.00224943390.1110236820.9110236823.994.901023682TF-3.9788.02247379.468169248339.4655431903860.23425116131257161113124.5WETL
2024-02-12 19:00:02FORECAST2024139-14628.11219.79623.954106.232494897080.1480315761.3680315763.995.358031576TF-3.8889.11247380.7020488564440.4429284624490.23763119366833161114126WETL
2024-02-12 15:00:02FORECAST2024139-14630.5622.85626.708104.920142141160.0822835091.1822835093.995.172283509TF-1.4414.5647379.9768383907739.8672238943070.33890201638603162114128WETL
2024-02-12 11:00:03FORECAST2024139-14627.5920.58824.089106.08899360870.0137795351.0937795353.995.083779535TF-4.418.5947380.6228672347540.3798969293940.21840244219818161114126WETL
2024-02-12 07:00:08FORECAST2024139-14627.30220.85824.08109.102595629020.0342519871.7542519874.015.764251987TF-4.69811.30247382.279676568841.7077049698790.20818832079193161115127.5WETL
2024-02-12 03:00:07FORECAST2024139-14624.09818.21221.155109.64846496610.0295275751.8095275753.975.779527575TF-7.9026.09847382.5784287382341.949137440290.1143606383607161115127.5WETL
2024-02-11 23:00:03FORECAST2024139-14629.51620.4824.998112.74927282730.3208663152.0808663153.915.990866315TT-2.4848.51647384.2676516871643.3258982987840.293651486996611621151210WETL
2024-02-11 19:00:04FORECAST2024139-14631.15418.26624.71109.539265537630.2137796431.4737796433.945.413779643TF-0.84610.15447382.5186974538941.9008171735090.36578347471192162114128WETL
2024-02-11 15:00:02FORECAST2024139-14627.42814.46820.948110.247061339110.326771831.386771833.965.34677183TF-4.5724.42847382.9055623899542.2142130238920.21262195454371161114126WETL
2024-02-11 11:00:03FORECAST2024139-14627.78819.52623.657111.581028721370.2157481481.3957481483.975.365748148TF-4.2123.78847383.632790409742.8061414051630.22558868704217161114126WETL
2024-02-11 07:00:07FORECAST2024139-14624.78216.1620.471109.075256062310.0964567451.0064567453.94.906456745TF-7.218-0.21847382.264702834741.6956203452790.13132192772164161114126WETL
2024-02-11 03:00:07FORECAST2024139-14623.41416.3419.877110.236598938790.1952756961.0552756964.015.065275696TF-8.586-1.58647382.8998489450442.2095770818760.099015603364548161114126WETL
2024-02-10 23:00:03FORECAST2024139-14622.06415.42218.743108.375458804970.0267716680.3867716684.324.706771668TF-9.9361.06447381.8810734745541.3865365467380.073234721562495161112123WETL
2024-02-10 19:00:04FORECAST2024139-14623.01816.68219.85109.6401882305600.594.294.88TF-8.982-2.98247382.5739020050141.9454746279280.090848371651918161113124.5WETL
2024-02-10 15:00:03FORECAST2024139-14622.11817.13219.625108.8831976633300.464.264.72TF-9.882-8.88247382.1594841648341.6107466532360.074156526141819161112123WETL
2024-02-10 11:00:04FORECAST2024139-14621.23614.3617.798106.2338973806100.263.954.21TF-10.764-7.76447380.702822581140.4435445865910.06017083178395161112123WETL
2024-02-10 07:00:15FORECAST2024139-14624.92621.41623.171114.058327941150.3933072991.6433072993.855.493307299TF-7.0746.92647384.976799631243.9098100620710.13510280854163161115127.5WETL
2024-02-10 03:00:08FORECAST2024139-14624.94421.07423.009113.590356463770.350393891.570393893.815.38039389TF-7.0561.94447384.723558512843.7008861514810.13558059969855161115127.5WETL
2024-02-09 23:00:05FORECAST2024139-14630.86623.7227.293108.486091220820.3437009731.4037009733.334.733700973TF-1.13414.86647381.9417676335341.4353694445330.35265797299024162114128WETL
2024-02-09 19:00:03FORECAST2024139-14631.78424.33228.058107.701811478880.3547246011.4147246013.194.604724601TF-0.21620.78447381.5111348169241.0894403191470.39502950808118162114128WETL
2024-02-09 15:00:03FORECAST2024139-14635.20428.8532.027108.068578275820.0448819141.6448819143.124.764881914TF3.20425.20447381.7126261464141.2511408175710.559901708609271631151212.5WETL
2024-02-09 11:00:04FORECAST2024139-14635.49226.07830.785107.980607877910.062992161.662992162.984.64299216TF3.49228.49247381.6643148023341.2123447176610.573711720526481631151212.5WETL
2024-02-09 07:00:09FORECAST2024139-14632.79225.03428.913108.629272717840.0842520141.8842520142.984.864252014TF0.79217.79247382.0202932599641.4985866202840.443009999735881621151210WETL
2024-02-09 03:00:08FORECAST2024139-14633.83626.40230.119104.641346372570.1661418220.9561418223.054.006141822TF1.83623.83647379.8224633570139.7451339482260.49359266862793162113126WETL
2024-02-08 23:00:04FORECAST2024139-14634.93426.29430.614102.749049095190.1547244930.8547244932.593.444724493TF2.93418.93447378.7717647992838.9184386572320.54688796788558163113127.5DRYL
2024-02-08 19:00:04FORECAST2024139-14633.2623.21628.23899.54482495503700.452.532.98FF1.2627.2647376.9810622704237.5265138550730.46561982194531162112124DRYL
2024-02-08 15:00:05FORECAST2024139-14633.3523.77428.56299.54590312464800.432.522.95FF1.3524.3547376.9816672673337.5269805295620.4699829156314162112124DRYL
2024-02-08 11:00:05FORECAST2024139-14634.05221.95628.00499.74088007373900.392.512.9FF2.05214.05247377.0910480957237.6113930049960.50409803495773163112125DRYL
2024-02-08 07:00:07FORECAST2024139-14634.73623.88229.30999.8050080855300.472.593.06FF2.73624.73647377.1270116659137.6391644485880.53731163907131163112125DRYL
2024-02-08 03:00:08FORECAST2024139-14638.5729.13833.85499.87888435364700.322.823.14FF6.5725.5747377.1684348859237.6711624898170.71263545085137164112126DRYL
2024-02-07 23:00:05FORECAST2024139-14636.71627.9532.333105.056035998320.6988192751.0788192752.853.928819275TF4.71619.71647380.0520460345539.926761429440.631209421809431631141210DRYL
2024-02-07 19:00:03FORECAST2024139-14636.96829.10233.035105.848898227660.5720475531.2020475532.914.112047553TF4.96822.96847380.4903220436340.2744813746040.642735966057461631141210WETL
2024-02-07 15:00:05FORECAST2024139-14638.6630.57834.619105.842130336530.5791341711.2191341713.024.239134171TF6.6630.6647380.4865846427340.2715106830590.716364034664061641141212WETL
2024-02-07 11:00:03FORECAST2024139-14638.98428.47233.72899.31584584477800.312.853.16FF6.98428.98447376.8525369110537.4274284620710.72959184679921164112126DRYL
2024-02-07 07:00:07FORECAST2024139-14639.25428.2233.737103.2382478497500.912.853.76TF7.25429.25447379.0438767456739.1318256933980.74037467245193164113129DRYL
2024-02-07 03:00:09FORECAST2024139-14637.90426.16832.036103.3200174387201.012.783.79TF5.90433.90447379.089327294739.1675159069220.684350290419731631141210DRYL
2024-02-06 23:00:06FORECAST2024139-14628.70626.31227.50997.91086495124400.912.423.33TF-3.29429.70647376.0622863312736.8205837302370.26059518344855162113126DRYL
2024-02-06 19:00:05FORECAST2024139-14630.14624.67427.4197.78464014067500.942.423.36TF-1.85429.14647375.9911513131536.7661594272340.32063040909672162113126DRYL
2024-02-06 15:00:05FORECAST2024139-14629.04824.826.92491.760462997907002.322.32FF-2.95228.04847372.5695219320634.1871518313940.27431618074762162111122DRYL
2024-02-06 11:00:06FORECAST2024139-14626.36625.21425.7993.210083925450.1385827520.1385827522.262.398582752FF-5.63424.36647373.3976715502134.8044283027630.17699192636206161112123DRYL
2024-02-06 07:00:09FORECAST2024139-14626.16825.6125.88993.33073109906400.182.252.43FF-5.83221.16847373.4664583613734.8558975998450.17079113010465161112123DRYL
2024-02-06 03:00:06FORECAST2024139-14626.20426.0626.13294.94756549302300.42.152.55FF-5.7968.20447374.3862629086335.5470642172060.17190810963345161112123DRYL