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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 15, 2024

[ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, February 16, 2024 ]

DAY 138 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/16/2024 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.17°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.02°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.285
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 50

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.33 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.61 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.51 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.12 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 112 in
SWE DAY: 46
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 383.02 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.88 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -147

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-16 07:00:05OBSERVATION2024138-14728.1699617.8723.01998111.951875833330.330000000000040.610000000000044.515.12TF-3.8300450.1699646383.0195284192 42.8797546873280.2847486149913616 2113126WETL
2024-02-16 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024138-14728.1699617.8723.01998111.951875833330.330000000000040.610000000000044.515.12TF-3.8300450.1699646383.0195284192 42.8797546873280.2847486149913616 2113126WETL
2024-02-15 11:00:02FORECAST2024138-14725.84416.77221.308110.034221292490.456693160.736693164.515.24669316TF-6.15647.84446381.9703263037842.0298074116760.20105511096067161113124.5WETL
2024-02-15 07:00:06FORECAST2024138-14724.11616.9720.543110.01628785060.5015750740.7815750744.515.291575074TF-7.88446.11646381.9604902796342.0218752461620.14967453404709161113124.5WETL
2024-02-15 03:00:05FORECAST2024138-14723.73817.34820.543110.118858840210.5283467420.8083467424.515.318346742TF-8.26245.73846382.016741739942.0672476582530.13971788494696161113124.5WETL
2024-02-14 23:00:01FORECAST2024138-14723.23416.82620.03109.483905010330.488189240.818189244.515.32818924TF-8.76643.23446381.6682880352141.7865345927030.12715560602311161113124.5WETL
2024-02-14 19:00:02FORECAST2024138-14724.31416.6120.462109.189147066860.429134090.759134094.515.26913409TF-7.68644.31446381.5063379405441.656351640330.15507390011261161113124.5WETL
2024-02-14 15:00:01FORECAST2024138-14724.29617.40220.849109.230555381440.4543309540.7843309544.515.294330954TF-7.70444.29646381.5290964056341.6746350945640.1545778139525161113124.5WETL
2024-02-14 11:00:01FORECAST2024138-14724.78217.76221.272112.112883269460.7326775611.0626775614.515.572677561TF-7.21844.78246383.1073877312142.9512738403760.16833973681838161114126WETL
2024-02-14 07:00:05FORECAST2024138-14724.2616.82620.543111.487162330030.6842523381.0042523384.515.514252338TF-7.7445.2646382.7657397099742.6734661574190.15358878319264161114126WETL
2024-02-14 03:00:07FORECAST2024138-14724.83616.720.768111.306702047250.6637798860.9237798864.515.433779886TF-7.16445.83646382.6671062052242.593413573670.16991593989124161113124.5WETL
2024-02-13 23:00:02FORECAST2024138-14724.818.15821.479108.922209807760.4311025950.7711025954.515.281102595TF-7.237.846381.3595688210841.5385269673250.1688640923271161113124.5WETL
2024-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2024138-14724.83617.72621.281109.222719457910.4728349010.8228349014.515.332834901TF-7.16436.83646381.524789879541.6711750912450.16991593989124161113124.5WETL
2024-02-13 15:00:02FORECAST2024138-14725.66418.17621.92108.82697392430.4574805620.7474805624.515.257480562TF-6.33638.66446381.3071815401741.496506702620.19525720406564161113124.5WETL
2024-02-13 11:00:03FORECAST2024138-14725.93416.77221.353110.066735706090.7393704780.9993704784.515.509370478TF-6.06638.93446381.9881584672942.0441896808760.20399230233181161114126WETL
2024-02-13 07:00:06FORECAST2024138-14726.34818.53622.442111.851290806221.0818903481.4218903484.515.931890348TF-5.65240.34846382.9646224601842.8350873552860.21782840509997161114126WETL
2024-02-13 03:00:06FORECAST2024138-14726.56419.14822.856111.735184717131.0811029461.4111029464.515.921102946TF-5.43639.56446382.9012266351542.7835392864950.22525658115697161114126WETL
2024-02-12 23:00:03FORECAST2024138-14725.08818.35621.722103.353187160410.5204727220.8004727223.994.790472722TF-6.91235.08846378.2747693676239.0959030365140.17739582634168161113124.5WETL
2024-02-12 19:00:02FORECAST2024138-14726.04219.0422.541105.388011546760.8476382531.2176382533.995.207638253TF-5.95836.04246379.4069638885239.9849454912040.20755040362815161114126WETL
2024-02-12 15:00:02FORECAST2024138-14727.53620.62424.08104.493039406680.7539374151.1039374153.995.093937415TF-4.46438.53646378.9097141638439.5934276936980.26039733999846162114128WETL
2024-02-12 11:00:03FORECAST2024138-14727.33820.5723.954106.02071948290.6795279261.0795279263.995.069527926TF-4.66236.33846379.7578172745740.2621970167060.25301755608256162114128WETL
2024-02-12 07:00:08FORECAST2024138-14726.70820.78623.747108.937308055231.2381896451.7181896454.015.728189645TF-5.29238.70846381.3678728896341.5451894513470.2302872285026161115127.5WETL
2024-02-12 03:00:07FORECAST2024138-14724.99820.24622.622109.475603172981.2893707751.7793707753.975.749370775TF-7.00236.99846381.6637283810541.7828668737630.17470096429246161115127.5WETL
2024-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2024138-14724.45820.91222.685110.922145116741.3381896991.7581896993.915.668189699TF-7.54234.45846382.4567694716642.4229252842140.15908029478498161115127.5WETL
2024-02-11 19:00:04FORECAST2024138-14725.08819.6722.379108.310892194640.8566933761.2566933763.945.196693376TF-6.91234.08846381.0230751959841.2689492212210.17739582634168161114126WETL
2024-02-11 15:00:02FORECAST2024138-14723.59414.21618.905107.935204258090.7594492291.0594492293.965.019449229TF-8.40631.59446380.8160221891141.1034551397350.1360457648884161114126WETL
2024-02-11 11:00:03FORECAST2024138-14724.33219.00421.668110.341253118280.8830713431.1830713433.975.153071343TF-7.66831.33246382.1386557546542.1656581409030.15557103354763161114126WETL
2024-02-11 07:00:06FORECAST2024138-14723.32416.84420.084108.455643119170.7157484180.9057484183.94.805748418TF-8.67630.32446381.10279910341.3327491712320.12933941727069161113124.5WETL
2024-02-11 03:00:06FORECAST2024138-14723.21617.36620.291108.882812903780.6874019460.8574019464.014.867401946TF-8.78430.21646381.3378989395241.5211431033520.12672193138874161113124.5WETL
2024-02-10 23:00:03FORECAST2024138-14725.9718.96822.469108.16484447770.2011812110.3611812114.324.681181211TF-6.0333.9746380.9426073471841.2045978786390.20517428650943161112123WETL
2024-02-10 19:00:04FORECAST2024138-14724.0818.12221.101109.640188230560.3452757770.5852757774.294.875275777TF-7.9229.0846381.754106207141.8555920623340.14870643539086161113124.5WETL
2024-02-10 15:00:03FORECAST2024138-14723.46817.72620.597108.883197663330.2279528790.4579528794.264.717952879TF-8.53224.46846381.3381105832341.5213128711960.13288716041548161112123WETL
2024-02-10 11:00:04FORECAST2024138-14721.7414.41418.077106.2338973806100.263.954.21TF-10.2625.7446379.8759031550640.3556977131420.094593733131961161112123WETL
2024-02-10 07:00:15FORECAST2024138-14725.66419.56222.613111.468451310330.4976380641.2476380643.855.097638064TF-6.33636.66446382.7555149982942.6651644873470.19525720406564161114126WETL
2024-02-10 03:00:07FORECAST2024138-14726.36620.78623.576111.285743268810.4866144361.2166144363.815.026614436TF-5.63432.36646382.6556479131642.5841181940240.21844198167358161114126WETL
2024-02-09 23:00:05FORECAST2024138-14727.5923.28825.439106.470793084470.5035435791.0635435793.334.393543579TF-4.4138.5946380.0070520825440.459652212920.26242905299754162114128WETL
2024-02-09 19:00:03FORECAST2024138-14729.13822.6425.889105.699707994040.480315221.060315223.194.25031522TF-2.86244.13846379.5798783284440.1214822997270.32389763480647162114128WETL
2024-02-09 15:00:03FORECAST2024138-14730.57823.88227.23107.964021174710.7570870231.7470870232.974.717087023TF-1.42244.57846380.8319110624741.1161445099550.385800260124131621151210WETL
2024-02-09 11:00:04FORECAST2024138-14732.48625.6129.048107.748119421080.8496067581.5996067582.984.579606758TF0.48648.48646380.7128403489541.0210925870570.472250608488141621151210WETL
2024-02-09 07:00:09FORECAST2024138-14732.88226.76229.822108.186238570210.9078745061.7978745062.984.777874506TF0.88239.88246380.9543967074441.214023246560.490500257219791621151210WETL
2024-02-09 03:00:08FORECAST2024138-14733.24225.95229.597103.72732534380.4141734520.9341734522.913.844173452TF1.24245.24246378.4833824976739.2590689535580.50710913295295163113127.5DRYL
2024-02-08 23:00:03FORECAST2024138-14730.34426.29428.319101.823850326590.3212600160.8412600162.453.291260016FF-1.65639.34446377.4199725814838.4303547984010.37549081952319162113126DRYL
2024-02-08 19:00:04FORECAST2024138-14734.75425.75430.25499.56981855503700.572.412.98FF2.75448.75446376.1540509599337.4535906028220.57639909417416163113127.5DRYL
2024-02-08 15:00:05FORECAST2024138-14733.33226.00629.66999.5714871246480.0125984320.6025984322.352.952598432FF1.33246.33246376.1549907542637.454311818760.51126055109529163113127.5DRYL
2024-02-08 11:00:05FORECAST2024138-14732.48625.12428.80599.78171607373900.532.372.9FF0.48635.48646376.2733668855737.5452022606860.47225060848814162113126DRYL
2024-02-08 07:00:07FORECAST2024138-14733.63825.7929.71499.870640885530.0791339010.5591339012.53.059133901FF1.63844.63846376.3234198235137.5836611180090.52536356333241163113127.5DRYL
2024-02-08 03:00:08FORECAST2024138-14735.13225.91630.524100.139447553650.0779527980.4879527982.653.137952798FF3.13242.13246376.4746537948237.6999638489640.59344166980497163112125DRYL
2024-02-07 23:00:05FORECAST2024138-14732.66625.44829.05799.92024176963800.612.623.23FF0.66637.66646376.3513336665537.6051162502880.48054099167478162113126DRYL
2024-02-07 19:00:03FORECAST2024138-14732.91825.64629.282101.896379647580.07874021.00874022.533.5387402TF0.91840.91846377.4605866576838.4618672400690.49216087880394162114128DRYL
2024-02-07 15:00:04FORECAST2024138-14735.25828.5831.919102.130723614020.0783464991.0483464992.613.658346499TF3.25847.25846377.591760576338.5637197383480.599085108639491631141210DRYL
2024-02-07 11:00:03FORECAST2024138-14735.34826.88831.11899.6097666447780.1051181670.7051181672.453.155118167FF3.34845.34846376.176549969237.470858359670.60310359094386163113127.5DRYL
2024-02-07 07:00:06FORECAST2024138-14734.66428.90431.784103.500975849750.1161417951.2061417952.553.756141795TF2.66444.66446378.3571975330239.1603391644430.572318914544791631141210DRYL
2024-02-07 03:00:09FORECAST2024138-14734.729.40832.054103.497924638720.0759842931.1959842932.593.785984293TF2.750.746378.3554960530239.1590086171420.573951940064031631141210DRYL
2024-02-06 23:00:06FORECAST2024138-14734.62828.07631.35297.91086495124400.912.423.33TF2.62855.62846375.2176993203336.7378894854690.5706846493512163113127.5DRYL
2024-02-06 19:00:05FORECAST2024138-14735.85229.2132.53197.78464014067500.952.413.36TF3.85253.85246375.1462934748936.683545307550.62539404521915163113127.5DRYL
2024-02-06 15:00:05FORECAST2024138-14736.8626.3331.59591.760462997907002.322.32FF4.8653.8646371.7116371666634.1084319281230.66867607098167163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-06 11:00:05FORECAST2024138-14736.03225.7930.91191.80835430436002.262.26FF4.03253.03246371.73914993234.1287595857590.63325873354843163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-06 07:00:09FORECAST2024138-14736.06826.07831.07393.3307310990640.1818898620.1818898622.252.431889862FF4.06850.06846372.6119884385134.7761492972420.63482510399023163112125DRYL
2024-02-06 03:00:06FORECAST2024138-14733.2623.2728.26594.9475654930230.3019686670.4019686672.152.551968667FF1.2637.2646373.5352948924535.4662668757570.50793949258139163112125DRYL
2024-02-05 23:00:05FORECAST2024138-14728.47223.07225.77290.818118640278002.092.09FF-3.52837.47246371.1695945092933.7089242698090.29672021763026162111122DRYL
2024-02-05 19:00:05FORECAST2024138-14725.721.5623.6391.95971065525200.042.222.26FF-6.329.746371.8260796587734.1930186994970.19640860301179161111121.5DRYL
2024-02-05 15:00:04FORECAST2024138-14726.85225.75426.30393.4319363314100.032.522.55FF-5.14827.85246372.6698938224834.8192697922550.23537998676917161111121.5DRYL
2024-02-05 11:00:07FORECAST2024138-14724.31420.82222.568102.525313731200.553.263.81TF-7.68624.31446377.8124558541138.7353405679990.15507390011261161113124.5DRYL
2024-02-05 07:00:10FORECAST2024138-14719.3118.19418.75292.36935186216400.012.152.16FF-12.6923.3146372.0611846771934.3670504817010.055385700856886161111121.5DRYL
2024-02-05 03:00:06FORECAST2024138-14719.36419.16619.26592.1532556087300.012.112.12FF-12.63629.36446371.9371912297134.2752230537850.056090049853382161111121.5DRYL