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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 17, 2024

[ Friday, February 16, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 18, 2024 ]

DAY 140 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/18/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.95°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.216
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 2

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.33 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.50 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 106 in
SWE DAY: 48
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 381.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 40.44 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -145

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-18 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024140-14527.1999420.6999623.94995106.0266908333300.334.54.83TF-4.800062.1999448381.41269738427 40.4399261454690.2160914623343416 1112123WETL
2024-02-18 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024140-14527.1999420.6999623.94995106.0266908333300.334.54.83TF-4.800062.1999448381.41269738427 40.4399261454690.2160914623343416 1112123WETL
2024-02-17 11:00:02FORECAST2024140-14529.82220.31825.07112.131084914990.0330708840.3630708844.54.863070884TF-2.1784.82248384.7434789771843.1417037116780.31919211151924162112124WETL
2024-02-17 07:00:06FORECAST2024140-14530.36220.40825.385111.755846752620.0338582860.3638582864.54.863858286TF-1.6385.36248384.540221598242.9746180751460.34274223587047162112124WETL
2024-02-17 03:00:06FORECAST2024140-14528.68820.0324.359111.6205116666700.334.54.83TF-3.3123.68848384.4668663285142.9143883384680.27212488532409162112124WETL
2024-02-16 23:00:02FORECAST2024140-14529.53420.82225.17811200.334.54.83TF-2.4666.53448384.6724954853943.0833194943630.30691651909845162112124WETL
2024-02-16 19:00:01FORECAST2024140-14529.78621.12825.457112.051042226730.0125984320.3425984324.54.842598432TF-2.2146.78648384.700138054343.1060514137530.31764641438812162112124WETL
2024-02-16 15:00:01FORECAST2024140-14529.71419.90424.809112.631369694290.1527559880.4827559884.54.982755988TF-2.2866.71448385.0141699203243.3646733098350.31456455099549162112124WETL
2024-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2024140-14529.53420.2124.872112.542359869930.1314961340.4614961344.54.961496134TF-2.4666.53448384.9660341960743.3249859581930.30691651909845162112124WETL
2024-02-16 07:00:07FORECAST2024140-14530.59621.34425.97112.214737781710.066929170.396929174.54.89692917TF-1.4046.59648384.788765297143.1789703991640.35314706637102162112124WETL
2024-02-16 03:00:06FORECAST2024140-14530.50620.15625.331111.9518758333300.334.54.83TF-1.4946.50648384.646429946643.0618893651170.34913169681212162112124WETL
2024-02-15 23:00:03FORECAST2024140-14530.5622.26226.411108.056159433160.0133858340.4733858344.54.973385834TF-1.445.5648382.5257856424541.3342672806770.35153892686958162112124WETL
2024-02-15 19:00:02FORECAST2024140-14530.61422.65826.636108.05381730710.0137795350.4737795354.54.973779535TF-1.3864.61448382.524504377441.3332329114820.35395212230098162112124WETL
2024-02-15 15:00:03FORECAST2024140-14531.31622.15426.735108.722262964240.1767717490.6367717494.55.136771749TF-0.6846.31648382.8898698307541.6286531140810.38582590312042162113126WETL
2024-02-15 11:00:02FORECAST2024140-14530.68623.25226.969110.877535689580.2043308190.6643308194.55.164330819TF-1.3145.68648384.0637037770342.584037022610.35717884490236162113126WETL
2024-02-15 07:00:07FORECAST2024140-14531.20823.91827.563110.669832217760.1618111110.6618111114.55.161811111TF-0.7923.20848383.9508610791542.4917773754920.38086555722737162113126WETL
2024-02-15 03:00:06FORECAST2024140-14531.31624.15227.734110.776026278930.161417410.691417414.55.19141741TF-0.6843.31648384.0085624218142.5389426021730.38582590312042162113126WETL
2024-02-14 23:00:03FORECAST2024140-14530.0223.82826.924110.383904550680.2051182210.6951182214.555.245118221TF-1.98-0.9848383.7954227374142.3648373104350.32774908786609162113126WETL
2024-02-14 19:00:03FORECAST2024140-14531.11823.23427.176110.595429381520.3299214380.7599214384.555.309921438TF-0.8821.11848383.9104244645742.4587382377030.37674679701102162113126WETL
2024-02-14 15:00:03FORECAST2024140-14531.83825.4328.634110.820006035930.3240159230.8240159234.555.374015923TF-0.1623.83848384.0324545966642.5584789363950.41005098274942162113126WETL
2024-02-14 11:00:03FORECAST2024140-14531.7325.89828.814113.533305395220.3145670991.0745670994.555.624567099TF-0.274.7348385.5013154015543.7672385717440.40500731972256162114128WETL
2024-02-14 07:00:05FORECAST2024140-14530.93824.96227.95113.295773800670.3633860231.1033860234.545.643386023TF-1.0623.93848385.3731301849243.6611469862850.36855163652954162114128WETL
2024-02-14 03:00:08FORECAST2024140-14531.40624.7128.058113.306596362340.4090553391.1190553394.485.599055339TF-0.5945.40648385.3789723209143.6659796632990.38997386800588162114128WETL
2024-02-13 23:00:03FORECAST2024140-14531.22624.15227.689110.743897061820.4110238440.8410238444.565.401023844TF-0.774-2.77448383.9911064118742.5246715611320.38169094807958162113126WETL
2024-02-13 19:00:03FORECAST2024140-14531.20825.46628.337111.172090897160.4440947280.9140947284.575.484094728TF-0.792-2.79248384.2236298939342.7149443074060.38086555722737162113126WETL
2024-02-13 15:00:03FORECAST2024140-14532.1826.07829.129110.27335105260.3342521490.7942521494.515.304252149TF0.180.1848383.7352924700142.3157766178180.42611714944645162113126WETL
2024-02-13 11:00:04FORECAST2024140-14532.95427.33830.146112.217769939050.4673230871.2473230874.485.727323087TF0.9540.95448384.7904066052443.1803213231790.46289225169538162114128WETL
2024-02-13 07:00:07FORECAST2024140-14531.89225.64628.769114.149710250.4271655851.5871655854.566.147165585TT-0.1081.89248385.8336011031344.0427937706380.412578460661811621151210WETL
2024-02-13 03:00:07FORECAST2024140-14533.45827.06830.263114.501534219540.5098427951.7098427954.556.259842795TT1.4583.45848386.0230259597344.200228716460.487030846537381621151210WETL
2024-02-12 23:00:03FORECAST2024140-14532.6325.44829.039105.387557366840.2866143280.9166143283.984.896614328TF0.63-4.3748381.0609666902540.1590844873310.4474408526409162113126WETL
2024-02-12 19:00:03FORECAST2024140-14532.30625.05228.679107.626231878880.2858269261.2858269264.075.355826926TF0.306-3.69448382.2904650934841.1444822412360.43206881426252162114128WETL
2024-02-12 15:00:03FORECAST2024140-14533.15227.03230.092105.576621373880.1401575560.9701575564.055.020157556TF1.1523.15248381.1650726907840.2421205604210.47236392804667162113126WETL
2024-02-12 11:00:04FORECAST2024140-14532.34223.95428.148107.193939856980.2208662610.9108662614.15.010866261TF0.342-3.65848382.0535911151640.9538296681420.43377218684824162113126WETL
2024-02-12 07:00:08FORECAST2024140-14533.4423.93628.688110.340488109710.2464568261.5164568264.25.716456826TF1.44-0.5648383.7718104622842.3455688891560.486167406295891621151210WETL
2024-02-12 03:00:08FORECAST2024140-14529.26419.88624.575111.551653453180.3338584481.6538584484.175.823858448TF-2.736-9.73648384.4295336381942.8837501135760.295601000767961621151210WETL
2024-02-11 23:00:03FORECAST2024140-14532.34225.729.021115.531687291690.5106301972.1706301974.046.210630197TT0.342-3.65848386.5766961981144.6618579794130.433772186848241621151210WETL
2024-02-11 19:00:04FORECAST2024140-14533.33225.44829.39112.074716788360.4704726951.5404726954.055.590472695TF1.332-1.66848384.7129580985443.1165958237050.480988268037711621151210WETL
2024-02-11 15:00:02FORECAST2024140-14531.56820.85826.213111.931878185840.2736221951.3636221953.975.333622195TF-0.432-9.43248384.635597664443.052984863710.3974715617645162114128WETL
2024-02-11 11:00:04FORECAST2024140-14532.8125.55629.183111.985260099580.0830709111.1830709113.985.163070911TF0.81-8.1948384.664512237443.0767554539820.45601664133102162114128WETL
2024-02-11 07:00:07FORECAST2024140-14531.80221.9226.861109.444990084420.0712598810.8912598813.84.691259881TF-0.198-13.19848383.284207648341.9485363055840.40836806383723162113126WETL
2024-02-11 03:00:07FORECAST2024140-14529.85819.38224.62110.965189333770.11811031.00811033.894.8981103TF-2.142-17.14248384.1113070454142.6229839115360.32074095568335162114128WETL
2024-02-10 23:00:03FORECAST2024140-14526.18615.47620.831108.3754588049700.234.194.42TF-5.814-17.81448382.7003877123941.4753301031690.18207179596506161112123WETL
2024-02-10 19:00:05FORECAST2024140-14530.12819.8524.989109.6401882305600.354.244.59TF-1.872-17.87248383.3905884903242.0350162879030.33245528585388162112124WETL
2024-02-10 15:00:04FORECAST2024140-14532.68419.2225.952108.8794584633300.234.24.43TF0.684-21.31648382.9757012011741.6981869513990.45001119631555162112124WETL
2024-02-10 11:00:05FORECAST2024140-14530.25419.72424.989106.23389738061003.923.92TF-1.746-22.74648381.5266056761340.5310582753710.33797935249811162111122DRYL
2024-02-10 07:00:16FORECAST2024140-14532.59422.33427.464114.62507588890.1051181670.9951181674.315.305118167TF0.594-5.40648386.0895016423744.2555384256630.44572850877324162114128WETL
2024-02-10 03:00:08FORECAST2024140-14533.02622.24427.635113.841008293280.0507874290.8907874294.255.140787429TF1.026-9.97448385.6672540017943.9047490612650.46633434886653162113126WETL
2024-02-09 23:00:06FORECAST2024140-14530.66822.15426.411109.561258917270.1590552040.9990552043.64.599055204TF-1.3320.66848383.3475792346242.0000433838340.35637119593012162114128WETL
2024-02-09 19:00:03FORECAST2024140-14532.16223.84628.004108.605331755720.1401575560.9701575563.484.450157556TF0.1628.16248382.8260012048741.576944865570.42526825059938162113126WETL
2024-02-09 15:00:03FORECAST2024140-14536.15829.08432.621108.553465333710.1039370640.9039370643.674.573937064TF4.15816.15848382.797665336741.5540130939530.61497814890691163113127.5WETL
2024-02-09 11:00:05FORECAST2024140-14534.0726.43830.254108.498766174540.086614220.996614223.444.43661422TF2.0717.0748382.7677778317541.5298316261140.516397488998551631141210WETL
2024-02-09 07:00:09FORECAST2024140-14532.68425.9729.327109.823087361460.177165451.167165453.584.74716545TF0.6845.68448383.4902186519842.1160797852810.45001119631555162114128WETL
2024-02-09 03:00:08FORECAST2024140-14533.65628.34631.001109.114490050150.7224413351.3024413353.144.442441335TF1.65612.65648383.1039684682941.8021941556060.49653181153529162114128WETL
2024-02-08 23:00:04FORECAST2024140-14534.41229.10231.757107.744072637430.7232287371.1932287372.683.873228737TF2.4128.41248382.3549907177441.1964838931750.532779766336281631141210DRYL
2024-02-08 19:00:04FORECAST2024140-14538.06627.98633.02699.433731355037002.692.69FF6.06620.06648377.7568504837837.5617731885290.6991203843836164111123DRYL
2024-02-08 15:00:05FORECAST2024140-14538.2127.73432.97299.45891752464800.012.652.66FF6.2117.2148377.7709332225837.5726880905940.70512485386222164111123DRYL
2024-02-08 11:00:06FORECAST2024140-14535.25827.80631.53299.691778473739002.612.61FF3.2584.25848377.9010937630337.6736321244080.57300898850197163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-08 07:00:07FORECAST2024140-14535.81628.36432.0999.7564968855300.082.692.77FF3.81615.81648377.9372552594637.7016966272160.59915948961926163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-08 03:00:08FORECAST2024140-14540.02829.44434.73699.61910835364700.082.772.85FF8.02821.02848377.8604821538437.6421243142450.77576053893225164111123DRYL
2024-02-07 23:00:05FORECAST2024140-14528.61624.96226.789106.696116080550.15748040.85748042.943.7974804TF-3.3843.61648381.7804866600540.734495121970.26925677678065162113126DRYL
2024-02-07 19:00:03FORECAST2024140-14531.74828.6730.209106.486198711960.0783464990.7283464993.173.898346499TF-0.2529.74848381.6652231456640.6420787933350.4058468597308162113126DRYL
2024-02-07 15:00:05FORECAST2024140-14532.57628.6730.623106.455160326920.0783464990.7383464993.294.028346499TF0.57618.57648381.6481750648740.6284176650060.44487271424483162113126WETL
2024-02-07 11:00:04FORECAST2024140-14529.22826.83428.03199.31584584477800.112.762.87FF-2.77213.22848377.6909233277337.5106935181890.29410685375776162112124DRYL
2024-02-07 07:00:07FORECAST2024140-14531.20831.1931.199103.2382478497500.123.353.47FF-0.79215.20848379.8739518724439.2175211950690.38086555722737162112124DRYL
2024-02-07 03:00:09FORECAST2024140-14525.84425.50225.673103.3200174387200.083.423.5FF-6.15614.84448379.9192300371239.2532614727420.17139500505029161111121.5DRYL