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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 5, 2024

[ Monday, November 4, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 6, 2024 ]

DAY 36 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/06/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.39°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.40°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.123
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 97

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.50 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.83 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.89 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.72 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 29 in
SWE DAY: 57
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 9.90 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 116

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-06 07:00:03OBSERVATION20253611630.3900824.4099427.4000128.82868250.51.835.897.72TT-1.6099297.3900857343.37098471685 9.89893309811460.1227433833293616 15152235WETL
2024-11-06 03:00:03OBSERVATION20253611630.3900824.4099427.4000128.82868250.51.835.897.72TT-1.6099297.3900857343.37098471685 9.89893309811460.1227433833293616 15152235WETL
2024-11-05 11:00:01FORECAST20253611630.70423.73827.22127.3880833533360.1015748581.4315748585.897.321574858TT-1.29697.70457342.437925993329.37871846044870.129873796641461615142228WETL
2024-11-05 07:00:02FORECAST20253611630.7423.64827.19427.3689161858280.0838583131.4138583135.897.303858313TT-1.2697.7457342.425488620289.37181449793990.130709416420341615142228WETL
2024-11-05 03:00:03FORECAST20253611630.09223.5426.81627.4202679871110.0968504461.4268504465.897.316850446TT-1.90897.09257342.45880890119.39031231461490.11623045151231615142228WETL
2024-11-04 23:00:01FORECAST20253611629.44422.71226.07826.4468734749460.1098425791.7598425795.897.649842579TT-2.55697.44457341.826469081629.04024137818930.10292452737381615152235WETL
2024-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20253611629.51622.1925.85326.4898636098670.1224410111.7724410115.897.662441011TT-2.48497.51657341.854429489569.05567721160760.10434600591671615152235WETL
2024-11-04 15:00:01FORECAST20253611629.51622.74826.13226.514033880480.1311024331.7811024335.897.671102433TT-2.48497.51657341.87014828159.06435669426030.10434600591671615152235WETL
2024-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20253611629.64223.37826.5130.544779417170.1594489051.8094489055.897.699448905TT-2.35897.64257344.4780332193210.5220055387450.106867616430281615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 07:00:04FORECAST20253611629.55223.3626.45630.1424048088990.1669292241.8469292245.897.736929224TT-2.44897.55257344.2188955843510.3755852935750.105062039615331615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 03:00:04FORECAST20253611629.82223.5426.68130.2533996209450.1492126791.8592126795.897.749212679TT-2.17897.82257344.2904050113810.4159552084660.110545490174421615151217.5WETL
2024-11-03 23:00:01FORECAST20253611630.18223.59426.88828.3565275983080.1283465261.5483465265.897.438346526TT-1.81896.18257343.065551714269.72814778521430.118170616014121615152235WETL
2024-11-03 19:00:02FORECAST20253611629.15623.28826.22228.3838278721920.1228347121.5428347125.897.432834712TT-2.84495.15657343.083222009199.7380151193460.097378836827511615152235WETL
2024-11-03 15:00:02FORECAST20253611629.98424.18827.08627.7862191668580.1078740741.3878740745.897.277874074TT-2.01695.98457342.6961352589.52222992191390.113932135442241615142228WETL
2024-11-03 11:00:02FORECAST20253611630.27223.79227.03228.9836286714840.1244095161.4544095165.897.344409516TT-1.72896.27257343.471138280169.95503993128410.120133499862261615142228WETL
2024-11-03 07:00:03FORECAST20253611629.87624.02626.95128.8502268345730.1236221141.3936221145.897.283622114TT-2.12495.87657343.384912827759.90673262665050.111666285608931615142228WETL
2024-11-03 03:00:03FORECAST20253611629.80423.3626.58228.7878982934510.1074803731.3374803735.897.227480373TT-2.19693.80457343.344616210719.8841698910780.110173684035451615142228WETL
2024-11-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253611630.05623.32426.6927.3053788818310.0622047581.4122047585.897.302204758TT-1.94494.05657342.384255602489.34893182239940.115460730068971615142228WETL
2024-11-02 20:00:01FORECAST20253611630.0223.8126.91523.8093713621560.0586614491.33866144967.338661449TT-1.9892.0257340.105207959018.09769119849930.114694626428851615142228WETL
2024-11-02 16:00:02FORECAST20253611629.6623.41426.53724.4495328802390.0921260341.52212603467.522126034TT-2.3492.6657340.52404432648.32565381827050.107231393839291615152235WETL
2024-11-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253611629.58823.25226.4225.899267705010.1389764531.47897645367.478976453TT-2.41293.58857341.470043808448.84382407783610.105781611364141615142228WETL
2024-11-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253611630.66824.06227.36526.0313734099090.1503937821.5303937826.077.600393782TT-1.33298.66857341.556074058678.89117370424370.129041871800261615152235WETL
2024-11-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253611628.09422.1925.14227.1487503204130.1696851311.5996851316.17.699685131TT-3.90693.09457342.282581877869.29254435442840.078815198223591615152235WETL
2024-11-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253611628.86822.62225.74528.1278232038310.1641733171.6341733176.688.314173317TT-3.13293.86857342.91747304259.64552205524390.092054853504891615152235WETL
2024-11-01 20:00:02FORECAST20253611628.86822.92825.89818.631419120350.2212599621.6112599626.78.311259962TT-3.13292.86857336.692297086626.27305530161410.092054853504891615152235WETL
2024-11-01 16:00:02FORECAST20253611628.77822.80225.7917.8914820976360.1255906191.4055906196.758.155590619TT-3.22293.77857336.200911251156.01513258485880.090435988028481615142228WETL
2024-11-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253611628.9422.53225.73623.668660361470.173228441.703228446.698.39322844TT-3.0693.9457340.01305410148.04765349599230.0933652655386721615152235WETL
2024-11-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253611629.35422.33425.84425.3071132315780.3992128141.9092128146.928.829212814TT-2.64695.35457341.084064400698.63185303927530.101167466789361615152235WETL
2024-11-01 04:00:04FORECAST20253611630.88423.46827.17625.5900022745970.3791340631.8991340636.938.829134063TT-1.11695.88457341.268530172118.73306246335270.134088911050031615152235WETL
2024-11-01 00:00:03FORECAST20253611631.92823.0927.50927.8333315393290.4283466881.8683466887.048.908346688TT-0.07199999999999998.92857342.726672510049.5392251033430.160374481953611615152235WETL
2024-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253611631.122.4626.7822.1783167243890.2342520951.6642520956.958.614252095TT-0.9100.157339.034980003887.51922516717290.139269530137291615152235WETL
2024-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20253611631.78424.2628.02221.2273602780120.2251969721.4051969727.018.415196972TT-0.21699.78457338.408954074397.18352878944240.156561669135551615142228WETL
2024-10-31 12:00:03FORECAST20253611635.00625.23230.11923.9758635176780.3917324951.4417324957.178.611732495TT3.006104.00657340.214203769718.15692931635830.2559266130741625142232WETL
2024-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253611635.1524.81829.98422.8562113297230.322834821.232834827.128.35283482TT3.15105.1557339.480323815157.75923402340180.261023175944181625142232WETL
2024-10-31 04:00:04FORECAST20253611635.13225.6130.37123.3191172294550.3625986211.2925986217.188.472598621TT3.132105.13257339.783990199087.92346270014420.260383267735861625142232WETL
2024-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253611632.7226.83429.77728.8739075266620.3799214651.3499214657.348.689921465TT0.72107.7257343.400221184629.91530623111980.182416141606661615142228WETL
2024-10-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253611632.97227.46430.21827.4853986618060.6125987561.6925987567.579.262598756TT0.972107.97257342.501063530969.4137782732410.189807718989251615152235WETL
2024-10-30 16:00:03FORECAST20253611632.41427.75230.08329.9865399094090.6799216272.2299216277.639.859921627TT0.414107.41457344.1184441526610.3189214591470.173685545933831615151217.5WETL
2024-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253611634.95226.45630.70426.3493651922390.2862206271.5262206277.088.606220627TT2.952110.95257341.763039229859.00523912987680.254028858592281625152240WETL
2024-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253611634.71827.08630.90226.4115336145720.3940947011.7040947016.758.454094701TT2.718105.71857341.803482058769.02755415597270.245891216541621615152235WETL
2024-10-30 04:00:05FORECAST20253611635.45626.81631.13624.633681497710.35433091.33433096.637.9643309TT3.456105.45657340.644400559728.39132566736650.272023785838131625142232WETL
2024-10-30 00:00:03FORECAST20253611632.86425.9729.41725.1067131470060.6905515541.3305515546.728.050551554TT0.864106.86457340.953307649428.56021689167690.186617669560241615142228WETL
2024-10-29 20:00:03FORECAST20253611632.28825.80829.04824.7584378954360.6303153011.5503153016.327.870315301TT0.288102.28857340.725907121078.43584121082290.170168992864771615152235WETL
2024-10-29 16:00:03FORECAST20253611631.9125.44828.67922.425700007940.6118113541.2418113546.067.301811354TT-0.09103.9157339.197587662737.60674334434150.159894598134961615142228WETL
2024-10-29 12:00:03FORECAST20253611633.33227.64430.48816.6589191964310.4122049470.6722049475.466.132204947TF1.332106.33257335.380323516675.5870737095370.200680653849671615132221WETL
2024-10-29 08:00:03FORECAST20253611633.85427.64430.74917.6689052359730.2562993510.5962993515.696.286299351TF1.854107.85457336.05291909065.9376871816840.217092909112561615132221WETL
2024-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20253611629.85822.51426.18619.2596509796240.2807088131.0107088135.66.610708813TT-2.142107.85857337.108776170736.49259737121640.11129179025881615142228WETL
2024-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20253611631.2821.25426.26719.7299436196630.0539370370.8839370375.816.693937037TT-0.72107.2857337.420116589516.65727987645130.14368916533871615132221WETL
2024-10-28 20:00:03FORECAST20253611630.88421.63226.25815.1017288094240.0960630440.9360630445.816.746063044TT-1.116107.88457334.339932847125.04911099601820.134088911050031615132221WETL
2024-10-28 16:00:03FORECAST20253611634.32226.90630.61413.6487352973050.0637795620.5237795625.946.463779562TT2.322112.32257333.365440008094.55001664793990.232444284753371615133231.5WETL
2024-10-28 12:00:03FORECAST20253611637.2231.35234.2869.90632803536890.0334645850.5634645854.765.323464585TF5.22115.2257330.83886057343.27739827968770.33956385450341625133236WETM
2024-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20253611638.58831.51435.05110.0101368611910.1594489050.6794489054.735.409448905TF6.588116.58857330.9092684813.31244706613130.395909500586771625133236WETM
2024-10-28 04:00:05FORECAST20253611638.73231.62235.17710.7773233834250.1629922140.6829922144.875.552992214TF6.732116.73257331.429034389223.57191788226890.401993289643481625133236WETM
2024-10-28 00:00:04FORECAST20253611637.0428.3132.67519.9028433231280.1937008920.7637008925.326.083700892TF5.04113.0457337.53448518666.71789597482140.332379527135661625132224WETL
2024-10-27 20:00:03FORECAST20253611634.50228.05831.2812.7485829416920.0374015950.6074015955.426.027401595TF2.502111.50257332.759919670384.24221743558870.238505349610521615133231.5WETL
2024-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20253611637.70630.03833.87213.9918767877470.023622060.253622065.625.87362206TF5.706112.70657333.595902429654.66763276369290.359248269307511625123224WETM
2024-10-27 12:00:03FORECAST20253611643.35834.1638.75919.3335992307880.0299212760.1899212766.316.499921276TF11.358124.35857337.157755610226.518472924520.601811961554021635122218WETL
2024-10-27 08:00:03FORECAST20253611644.65435.2439.94719.367483821090.03937010.24937016.576.8193701TT12.654137.65457337.18019591066.53033198909040.655372027384251635122218WETL
2024-10-27 04:00:05FORECAST20253611650.37833.47641.92720.4262972311110.1236221140.2336221146.987.213622114TT18.378141.37857337.880430095586.90164609370780.847656012334511645122220WETM
2024-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20253611646.3133.87240.09116.64544064114300.056.977.02TT14.31137.3157335.371335862445.58240366383910.719411407506871645112210WETM
2024-10-26 20:00:04FORECAST20253611631.33427.39229.36318.44182436455900.046.836.87TT-0.666120.33457336.566476822346.20689985255610.14503326193403161511227WETL
2024-10-26 16:00:03FORECAST20253611634.80827.24831.02816.087511511437006.766.76TT2.808136.80857334.999032253265.38930078769470.24900445003041162511228WETL
2024-10-26 12:00:04FORECAST20253611627.37422.5524.96216.09945474041900.116.796.9TT-4.626127.37457335.007007443895.39343015406610.0678398140929461615122214WETL
2024-10-26 08:00:04FORECAST20253611630.36226.76228.56215.3114597650730.0011811030.3011811036.686.981181103TT-1.638131.36257334.480298286385.12138162942150.122119176232661615122214WETL
2024-10-26 04:00:05FORECAST20253611630.50629.40829.95717.0567077231210.0019685050.4219685056.56.921968505TT-1.494127.50657335.645434943045.72500608242350.125343839268811615122214WETL