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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 4, 2024

[ Sunday, November 3, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 5, 2024 ]

DAY 35 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/05/2024 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.99°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.36°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.17°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.164
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 106

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.96 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.55 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.22 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 27 in
SWE DAY: 58
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.19 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 9.28 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 115

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-05 07:00:02OBSERVATION20253511531.9899226.3600629.1749927.0488304166670.960000000000041.675.557.22TT-0.010079999999999105.9899258343.18744787875 9.28281907880080.1638363027324616 15152235WETL
2024-11-05 03:00:03OBSERVATION20253511531.9899226.3600629.1749927.0488304166670.960000000000041.675.557.22TT-0.010079999999999105.9899258343.18744787875 9.28281907880080.1638363027324616 15152235WETL
2024-11-04 11:00:01FORECAST20253511532.70225.2528.97629.9182542796831.2799219511.9899219515.557.539921951TT0.702106.70258345.0371299572210.3229085899920.18226208750291615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 07:00:03FORECAST20253511532.6325.9729.329.4921877002951.3125991342.0225991345.557.572599134TT0.63106.6358344.763331328310.1678248797130.180342371084531615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 03:00:04FORECAST20253511532.52225.64629.08429.6584084040631.3405519052.0505519055.557.600551905TT0.522106.52258344.870183220510.2283007403370.177486628488931615151217.5WETL
2024-11-03 23:00:01FORECAST20253511532.19825.80829.00327.8258271178681.1492132191.7592132195.557.309213219TT0.198105.19858343.689645618539.56344866118240.169091444787051615152235WETL
2024-11-03 19:00:02FORECAST20253511531.67625.2528.46327.8633525907731.1484258171.7584258175.557.308425817TT-0.324104.67658343.713874447799.57702087407940.156110443413081615152235WETL
2024-11-03 15:00:02FORECAST20253511531.87426.04228.95827.3326135534771.0110241681.6210241685.557.171024168TT-0.126104.87458343.370980867329.38522632552470.160955057481951615152235WETL
2024-11-03 11:00:01FORECAST20253511531.85625.75428.80528.4646395292961.0610241951.6710241955.557.221024195TT-0.144104.85658344.101788692749.79473337652470.160510636087191615152235WETL
2024-11-03 07:00:03FORECAST20253511531.9125.57428.74228.3384997659721.0248037031.6148037035.557.164803703TT-0.09104.9158344.020459987169.74902372483560.161846301206231615152235WETL
2024-11-03 03:00:03FORECAST20253511530.99225.80828.428.3263737772020.9830713971.5730713975.557.123071397TT-1.008102.99258344.012640373999.74463063531580.140118934631431615152235WETL
2024-11-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253511531.80226.00628.90427.0214449929310.9460635031.6860635035.557.236063503TT-0.198102.80258343.169729718159.27294197481790.159182174091761615152235WETL
2024-11-02 20:00:01FORECAST20253511531.2826.6928.98523.5400055982860.9125989181.7325989185.557.282598918TT-0.72101.2858340.907197724358.0249573429270.146711645556441615152235WETL
2024-11-02 16:00:02FORECAST20253511531.56827.21229.3924.0304885197581.0212603941.8812603945.557.431260394TT-0.432101.56858341.22716684438.19985551548140.153508744292431615152235WETL
2024-11-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253511532.61226.43829.52525.2725777218390.9507879151.7907879155.557.340787915TT0.612102.61258342.035669606858.64412304378040.17986442691071615152235WETL
2024-11-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253511534.17827.4130.79425.3665895449350.9748036761.9048036765.557.454803676TT2.178107.17858342.096760163958.6778280997310.224375965318391615152235WETL
2024-11-02 04:00:03FORECAST20253511532.9926.29429.64226.3413182176561.0169296831.9769296835.557.526929683TT0.99103.9958342.729297250979.02794148140160.190067659238681615152235WETL
2024-11-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253511531.89225.64628.76927.3174528324891.0208666932.1108666936.048.150866693TT-0.108103.89258343.361179216259.37975281774760.161400279199391615152235WETL
2024-11-01 20:00:01FORECAST20253511531.1925.62828.40917.5507916070061.0011816432.0011816436.098.091181643TT-0.81103.1958336.967779681295.91405127946170.144629495688281615152235WETL
2024-11-01 16:00:02FORECAST20253511531.80225.57428.68817.2711898182910.9003941871.9403941876.098.030394187TT-0.198103.80258336.782402789355.81663280603490.159182174091761615152235WETL
2024-11-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253511532.4526.38429.41722.8271361021361.1448825082.1348825086.098.224882508TT0.45104.4558340.441442265717.77130313740680.175598710938741615152235WETL
2024-11-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253511533.20626.70829.95723.3629034651841.0570871852.0870871856.348.427087185TT1.206105.20658340.791566225877.96188046348390.196054267437411615152235WETL
2024-11-01 04:00:04FORECAST20253511532.61226.4229.51623.7079613356071.1031502022.1131502026.348.453150202TT0.612103.61258341.01680941778.08481333246690.17986442691071615152235WETL
2024-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253511533.65627.08630.37125.6392831280031.1901581232.0601581236.428.480158123TT1.656105.65658342.273878808158.77565688608210.208887477180881615152235WETL
2024-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253511534.05226.81630.43420.9721539639721.047244662.107244666.278.37724466TT2.052108.05258339.225524216357.11428992237450.220578930492631615152235WETL
2024-10-31 16:00:02FORECAST20253511533.827.48230.64120.0987432709140.9129926191.8529926196.348.192992619TT1.8106.858338.651027406916.80646005828270.213096149942471615152235WETL
2024-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253511534.66426.63630.6522.1700304443590.6448822381.8248822386.48.224882238TT2.664107.66458340.011372675757.53806248364950.239363543303291615152235WETL
2024-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253511534.86227.64431.25321.2475264057410.6448822381.6948822386.348.034882238TT2.862108.86258339.406389784057.21154622921380.245622582951191615152235WETL
2024-10-31 04:00:04FORECAST20253511535.88827.26631.57721.6339140980110.6039373341.6839373346.438.113937334TT3.888108.88858339.659957358737.34817434003290.279412620357611625152240WETL
2024-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253511535.88826.11431.00126.9403944479190.7169295211.5969295216.718.306929521TT3.888113.88858343.117283410649.24371495698090.279412620357611625152240WETL
2024-10-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253511536.2327.48231.85624.3930640654860.7574807241.6274807247.028.647480724TT4.23114.2358341.463438794328.3293395385310.291156833716361625152240WETL
2024-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253511535.67228.432.03626.5523684042181.0759848332.0559848337.129.175984833TT3.672113.67258342.866049307569.10390565451320.27211559312611625152240WETL
2024-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253511535.76227.5931.67624.9898420536720.8035437411.7435437416.588.323543741TT3.762114.76258341.851855001728.54282386224780.275144494182811625152240WETL
2024-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253511534.4328.41831.42424.4871931598210.8771658281.6771658286.388.057165828TT2.43110.4358341.524742344368.36298233464460.232080044618421615152235WETL
2024-10-30 04:00:05FORECAST20253511534.2527.9531.122.9323090953340.7586618271.3386618276.277.608661827TT2.25109.2558340.51021040537.80868539513150.226562220995581615142228WETL
2024-10-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253511534.44828.16631.30721.143625758930.5716538520.7816538526.587.361653852TT2.448113.44858339.33816234227.17483911028660.232635904728381615132221WETL
2024-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253511534.35828.11231.23521.1004912941990.5858270881.0858270886.157.235827088TT2.358109.35858339.309832357077.15960416368640.229864001631861615142228WETL
2024-10-29 16:00:03FORECAST20253511535.02427.96831.49618.8568347123640.3200789130.7900789135.96.690078913TT3.024111.02458337.831948880536.37044122059610.250808177195081625132224WETL
2024-10-29 12:00:03FORECAST20253511538.42628.25633.34114.5763589746970.1303150310.3803150315.345.720315031TF6.426112.42658334.988955738224.88291927139910.371460816050271625123224WETM
2024-10-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253511539.4728.2233.84516.3877983360380.1145669910.7045669915.336.034566991TF7.47113.4758336.195845557125.50950971840370.411986066418311625132224WETL
2024-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20253511539.97428.72434.34917.4906529488210.6783468231.0483468235.286.328346823TT7.974116.97458336.927918668375.89308929419690.431921155062071625142232WETL
2024-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20253511540.47827.7734.12419.375917777350.8314965121.1114965125.536.641496512TT8.478115.47858338.17461511276.55244353681060.452031137796611625142232WETL
2024-10-28 20:00:03FORECAST20253511540.76628.50834.63714.4286879511680.8389768311.0789768315.576.648976831TT8.766115.76658334.890323410424.83202797435470.463581481762551625143248WETH
2024-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253511542.0830.236.1413.253638000220.4570868610.6770868615.726.397086861TT10.08117.0858334.104165050094.42809565793970.516523056038811635133240.5WETH
2024-10-28 12:00:03FORECAST20253511540.22630.61435.429.98817679300920.5055120840.7055120844.585.285512084TF8.226117.22658331.907071734863.31514651133780.441957447534511625133236WETM
2024-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20253511539.99230.86635.4299.75589404046410.5161420110.5761420114.675.246142011TF7.992116.99258331.750090083353.23651872676760.432636657094181625133236WETM
2024-10-28 04:00:05FORECAST20253511540.11830.90235.5110.5035326546530.5244097320.5844097324.815.394409732TF8.118117.11858332.255029723433.48985155437280.437651228122421625133236WETM
2024-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20253511539.88431.58635.73518.6213195860490.5740160580.5740160585.325.894016058TF7.884114.88458337.676327439986.28797880990310.428347039169921625132224WETL
2024-10-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253511538.53430.88434.70912.5343482558290.5696853470.5696853475.425.989685347TF6.534115.53458333.621770595634.1817314583720.375595991125341625133236WETM
2024-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20253511538.87631.13635.00613.5990152870870.2161418490.2261418495.625.846141849TF6.876113.87658334.335480661484.5466333125310.388783152433941625123224WETM
2024-10-27 12:00:03FORECAST20253511542.3533.02637.68820.014844198960.1641733170.1741733176.36.474173317TF10.35120.3558338.595774619396.77694167543330.527396015730791635122218WETL
2024-10-27 08:00:03FORECAST20253511544.45633.06238.75919.5053268002350.181102460.211102466.576.78110246TT12.456132.45658338.25997253656.5978713077630.610890275091181635122218WETL
2024-10-27 04:00:05FORECAST20253511542.92633.74638.33620.8436232017680.1110236820.1110236826.987.091023682TT10.926129.92658339.141061455967.06892849723570.550513424759071635122218WETL
2024-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20253511541.933.74637.82316.9222398411430.0503937280.0603937286.967.020393728TT9.9129.958336.550863065735.69519442354190.50926708200004163511229WETL
2024-10-26 20:00:04FORECAST20253511540.5531.53236.04118.4418243645590.0358267910.0458267916.826.865826791TT8.55127.5558337.557659770096.22517907439170.4549153072226162511228WETL
2024-10-26 16:00:03FORECAST20253511544.56435.43840.00116.13543231143700.036.736.76TT12.564140.56458336.028036877195.42195764377710.61507033136619163511229WETM
2024-10-26 12:00:03FORECAST20253511540.80223.82832.31516.0994547404190.1149606920.1849606926.726.904960692TT8.802138.80258336.004105130165.40948288313790.465027638482281625122216WETL
2024-10-26 08:00:04FORECAST20253511542.60231.51437.05815.3013716116440.2968505540.3868505546.596.976850554TT10.602139.60258335.472669341345.1331919791420.537525888399411635122218WETL
2024-10-26 04:00:05FORECAST20253511541.23431.58636.4117.0399332300280.4153545550.5153545556.46.915354555TT9.234136.23458336.62897941575.73613533253610.482412108130481625132224WETL
2024-10-26 00:00:03FORECAST20253511536.6832.5434.619.77347480212700.035.585.61TF4.68127.6858331.761974778053.24246730079710.306951282477541625113212WETM
2024-10-25 20:00:03FORECAST20253511536.24832.82834.53810.3000423362350.031496080.161496085.755.91149608TF4.248128.24858332.117691537653.42082628345050.291781275752871625123224WETM
2024-10-25 16:00:03FORECAST20253511535.58233.27834.4310.8358332638910.1122047850.3222047855.856.172204785TF3.582129.58258332.479151049123.60268864448820.26910334027551625123224WETM
2024-10-25 12:00:04FORECAST20253511540.135.56437.83214.20672841218401.445.637.07TT8.1133.158334.742002737774.75558872104620.436934228040481625143248WETH
2024-10-25 08:00:04FORECAST20253511536.06833.49434.78121.8176707403290.0003937011.5303937015.957.480393701TT4.068115.06858339.780460675377.41321821501240.28556511034611625152240WETL
2024-10-25 04:00:05FORECAST20253511536.03236.01436.02324.5394696880530.0007874022.1107874025.847.950787402TT4.032110.03258341.558782201698.38167138252650.284329474013721625152240WETL