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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 3, 2024

[ Saturday, November 2, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, November 4, 2024 ]

DAY 34 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/04/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.55°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.84°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.154
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 106

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.37 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.60 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.66 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.26 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 26 in
SWE DAY: 60
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.16 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 114

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-04 07:00:03OBSERVATION20253411432.5500828.8399230.69525.5084791666670.371.64.666.26TT0.55008105.5500859343.15879309807 8.75345892460060.1541692791887816 15152235WETL
2024-11-04 03:00:03OBSERVATION20253411432.5500828.8399230.69525.5084791666670.371.64.666.26TT0.55008105.5500859343.15879309807 8.75345892460060.1541692791887816 15152235WETL
2024-11-03 11:00:01FORECAST20253411431.69426.61829.15624.9613668943180.2748032981.5048032984.666.164803298TT-0.306104.69459342.804542026858.55686994657060.132706301862961615152235WETL
2024-11-03 07:00:03FORECAST20253411431.60427.17629.3924.9289240588530.2543308461.4843308464.666.144330846TT-0.396104.60459342.783520069988.54522434045070.130575375981581615142228WETL
2024-11-03 03:00:03FORECAST20253411430.86626.83428.8524.9329508337970.2488190321.4788190324.666.138819032TT-1.134103.86659342.786129390128.54666971059140.113990405954261615142228WETL
2024-11-03 00:00:01FORECAST20253411432.12625.75428.9423.6358679710390.3988191131.6288191134.666.288819113TT0.126103.12660342.91503379378.10509446403230.143266291617941615152235WETL
2024-11-02 20:00:01FORECAST20253411431.8225.5228.6720.3142742907280.3692915381.7092915384.666.369291538TT-0.18101.8260340.754663863146.92218370756050.135729526924961615152235WETL
2024-11-02 16:00:01FORECAST20253411431.6426.16828.90420.4539606994240.4098427411.7498427414.666.409842741TT-0.36101.6460340.845883739266.97164831056310.131424898310941615152235WETL
2024-11-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253411431.60426.90629.25521.9651471782750.3901576911.7301576914.666.390157691TT-0.396101.60460341.8306725477.50836103254350.130575375981581615152235WETL
2024-11-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253411432.61227.73430.17322.1448312175130.4051183291.8151183294.666.475118329TT0.612104.61260341.947515272167.57237001094980.155805855114321615152235WETL
2024-11-02 04:00:03FORECAST20253411431.71226.9629.33622.7886587067780.4082679371.8482679374.666.508267937TT-0.288102.71260342.365737898527.80205595386370.133135336716491615152235WETL
2024-11-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253411431.78426.97829.38123.3652512066580.4464569342.4664569344.667.126456934TT-0.216103.78460342.73970539868.00819931513450.134860988398321615152235WETL
2024-11-01 20:00:01FORECAST20253411431.5527.01429.28213.6492793514660.3850395782.4250395784.667.085039578TT-0.45103.5560336.364371086184.59113126483560.129308203980071615153252.5WETL
2024-11-01 16:00:02FORECAST20253411431.76627.08629.42613.7686910843660.3811025682.4711025684.667.131102568TT-0.234103.76660336.443684331064.63238915684010.134428147866961615153252.5WETL
2024-11-01 12:00:01FORECAST20253411431.98226.34829.16518.3095484611450.3870080832.4170080834.667.077008083TT-0.018000000000001103.98260339.441939521856.21502864142030.139685167433211615152235WETL
2024-11-01 08:00:01FORECAST20253411432.3626.2429.319.2879601887120.4492128412.7092128414.667.369212841TT0.36104.3660340.083453187316.55951610591650.149216447995871615152235WETL
2024-11-01 04:00:04FORECAST20253411432.03626.07829.05719.265150792440.4169293592.6869293594.667.346929359TT0.036000000000001103.03660340.068515929576.55147123914420.141020911258431615152235WETL
2024-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253411432.10826.56429.33620.7398315327440.2500001352.3700001354.927.290000135TT0.108104.10860341.032466048287.07295589303750.142815300256621615152235WETL
2024-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253411432.01826.97829.49816.737871715750.381889972.431889974.97.33188997TT0.018000000000001106.01860338.408097506495.66423132363470.140574706826341615152235WETL
2024-10-31 16:00:02FORECAST20253411432.30626.83429.5716.4129535912460.2673229792.3773229794.97.277322979TT0.306105.30660338.193852510715.55076000610290.14782893911611615152235WETL
2024-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST2025341143225.93428.96719.6516319349970.4062994322.6762994324.97.576299432TT010560340.321495135846.68787276197750.140129458979031615152235WETL
2024-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253411432.66626.09629.38118.7808474657040.2661418762.5561418764.837.386141876TT0.666105.66660339.751154412056.38081460730960.157242393650211615152235WETL
2024-10-31 04:00:04FORECAST20253411432.43226.65429.54319.4071574170520.3318899432.7418899434.777.511889943TT0.432105.43260340.161498157446.60156774196170.151079909164281615152235WETL
2024-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253411432.75626.47429.61524.2265824088420.2507875372.5707875375.027.590787537TT0.756109.75660343.297330104938.31692105852250.159655864846241615152235WETL
2024-10-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253411432.88227.06829.97521.5395563362290.3153545012.5653545015.327.885354501TT0.882109.88260341.55371174447.35691541596640.163075127381061615152235WETL
2024-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253411433.3527.01430.18222.306376271220.4657482832.6957482835.48.095748283TT1.35110.3560342.052517287287.62995215512820.176187455809781615152235WETL
2024-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253411433.74626.31230.02921.8340209237670.444882132.034882135.497.52488213TT1.746110.74660341.745371716637.46167559666150.18778784498191615152235WETL
2024-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253411432.91826.34829.63320.8535625785770.4307088941.7107088945.477.180708894TT0.918107.91860341.106658417257.11328904727340.164060715569011615152235WETL
2024-10-30 04:00:04FORECAST20253411432.66624.22428.44519.7658560581340.2153544471.3753544475.476.845354447TT0.666106.66660340.396215360356.72822259554620.157242393650211615142228WETL
2024-10-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253411436.08624.830.44318.6731541145190.0720472831.5420472835.256.792047283TT4.086111.08660339.680530430936.34290689443830.265446180938341625152240WETL
2024-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253411434.48425.01629.7518.4669168943960.3314962421.6414962425.016.651496242TT2.484107.48460339.545228653026.2703535194240.21062745633791615152235WETL
2024-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20253411434.4325.46629.94817.4600244912590.307086781.547086784.826.36708678TT2.43108.4360338.883638943855.91691663564660.208903051357791615152235WETL
2024-10-29 12:00:03FORECAST20253411434.84423.23429.03914.4453455801660.1255906190.8955906194.695.585590619TF2.844105.84460336.892663991614.86653095478140.222334673201261615133231.5WETL
2024-10-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253411434.05223.23428.64316.4073594109920.2307087861.2707087864.655.920708786TF2.052106.05260338.190162263275.5488075415150.197066531734051615142228WETL
2024-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20253411435.3323.84629.58816.186351106660.051181130.931181134.725.65118113TF3.33109.3360338.044330336545.47170422044290.238711999012811615132221WETL
2024-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20253411435.67225.23230.45218.69491132630401.094.725.81TF3.672106.67260339.694800101276.35056416589990.250620602088531625142232WETL
2024-10-28 20:00:03FORECAST20253411435.8725.39430.63213.77466492984101.064.755.81TF3.87106.8760336.447651526014.63445366620290.257656016832031625143248WETL
2024-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253411437.00426.31231.65813.46078010196501.164.785.94TF5.004107.00460336.239120959234.526040868910.299831281492361625143248WETL
2024-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253411437.18425.3431.26210.2207299818930.0161417410.2861417414.494.776141741TF5.184109.18460334.07683798273.41450915422590.306802640740021625123224WETL
2024-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20253411437.32825.89831.61310.069248699110.0007874020.1407874024.594.730787402TF5.328109.32860333.975309203363.36288044773080.312430603629131625123224WETL
2024-10-28 04:00:04FORECAST20253411437.36425.95231.65810.8158962450170.0007874020.1407874024.734.870787402TF5.364109.36460334.475364035923.61765083392680.313844521168181625123224WETL
2024-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20253411438.9326.16832.54918.57389198510900.065.265.32TF6.93106.9360339.615418430486.30798009840530.37774571831813162511228WETL
2024-10-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253411438.51626.88832.70212.19518147051700.055.375.42TF6.516108.51660335.396627103664.09022273212850.360435916665361625113212WETM
2024-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20253411437.74227.4132.57613.2299081101380.0070866180.0570866185.575.627086618TF5.742106.74260336.08563413264.44638205671190.328852532484741625113212WETM
2024-10-27 12:00:03FORECAST20253411436.98627.80632.39620.3930015858930.003937010.483937015.836.31393701TF4.986109.98660340.806079388476.9500589174510.299138103220631625122216WETL
2024-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253411438.8426.83432.83720.1784487394540.0259842660.59598426666.595984266TT6.84119.8460340.665934214426.87411009082390.373960397144451625132224WETL
2024-10-27 04:00:05FORECAST20253411439.32625.3432.33320.8719181879600.616.376.98TT7.326119.32660341.118630677767.11980015189510.394536359817481625132224WETL
2024-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20253411439.90224.832.35117.08390664947800.756.226.97TT7.902119.90260338.63607219385.78522704550470.419304698995951625132224WETL
2024-10-26 20:00:03FORECAST20253411439.1124.45831.78418.24309421234700.826.016.83TT7.11119.1160339.398309723646.19167533979990.385351336787911625132224WETL
2024-10-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253411441.64826.81634.23217.08548431143701.115.656.76TT9.648127.64860338.637111130045.78577904948290.495950472439881625142232WETL
2024-10-26 12:00:03FORECAST20253411440.62227.06833.84516.40532355099301.125.676.79TT8.622129.62260338.18881927835.54809700158880.450709204479781625142232WETL
2024-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20253411442.18827.534.84415.11903703404501.065.626.68TT10.188129.18860337.338911644165.10023949817250.519819757977071635142236WETL
2024-10-26 04:00:05FORECAST20253411441.4526.2433.84516.53344967052200.975.536.5TT9.45127.4560338.27332602255.59282501067310.487197512183441625132224WETL
2024-10-26 00:00:03FORECAST20253411442.36827.24834.8089.90001720212700.285.335.61TF10.368123.36860333.861837316163.30523793256380.527764638670221635123227WETM
2024-10-25 20:00:03FORECAST20253411441.46827.78834.62810.2989969212110.1011811570.3111811575.575.881181157TF9.468124.46860334.12928029363.44119642903040.487993044433451625123224WETM
2024-10-25 16:00:03FORECAST20253411442.65626.18634.42110.2206170809140.1385827520.3185827525.746.058582752TF10.656125.65660334.076762326523.41447066337070.540452195494951635123227WETM
2024-10-25 12:00:03FORECAST20253411443.93427.84235.88814.4391492121840.6744098131.5744098135.57.074409813TT11.934124.93460336.888556023634.86438412830260.59608368506911635153267.5WETH
2024-10-25 08:00:03FORECAST20253411439.66826.1532.90921.93090152090.7429137871.6929137875.797.482913787TT7.668110.66860341.808397651617.4961663079140.40919800424521625152240WETL
2024-10-25 04:00:05FORECAST20253411441.7228.81435.26724.5787576299871.3704731812.3504731815.67.950473181TT9.72105.7260343.524976740938.44341714316220.499134072272861635152245WETL
2024-10-25 00:00:03FORECAST20253411428.6724.90826.78916.694698385630.1129921870.3429921875.325.662992187TF-3.3386.6760338.379639997085.64914602958930.0736067945286631615122214WETL
2024-10-24 20:00:03FORECAST20253411432.86427.57230.21815.8579428557720.1476378750.4176378754.775.187637875TF0.86490.86460337.827479490565.35724886487060.162583775773241615122214WETL
2024-10-24 16:00:03FORECAST20253411432.86428.23830.55117.4015079044830.1830709650.5730709654.815.383070965TF0.86494.86460338.845137929125.89641634606930.162583775773241615132221WETL
2024-10-24 12:00:04FORECAST20253411432.05427.71629.88519.7753802895060.1838583671.4038583674.716.113858367TT0.05400000000000290.05460340.402444700096.73158779542180.141468072551631615142228WETL
2024-10-24 08:00:04FORECAST20253411425.0722.20823.63916.43073136766800.64.775.37TF-6.9376.0760338.205579420425.55696502250350.0321659429872171615132221WETL
2024-10-24 04:00:05FORECAST20253411424.11622.53223.32413.41791355130800.344.084.42TF-7.88481.11660336.210629499884.51124516166010.0252249316760161615123221WETL