MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 6, 2024

[ Tuesday, November 5, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, November 7, 2024 ]

DAY 37 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/07/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.23°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.56°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.700
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 96

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.46 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.26 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.72 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 29 in
SWE DAY: 56
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.20 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 9.76 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 117

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-07 07:00:03OBSERVATION20253711744.2299222.8900233.5599728.52028416666701.466.267.72TT12.2299296.2299256342.20171626986 9.75969019033730.7000432803319116 45142240WETL
2024-11-07 03:00:03OBSERVATION20253711744.2299222.8900233.5599728.52028416666701.466.267.72TT12.2299296.2299256342.20171626986 9.75969019033730.7000432803319116 45142240WETL
2024-11-06 11:00:02FORECAST20253711742.83625.93434.38528.418849601.466.267.72TT10.83694.83656342.135828705169.72310665874320.644673141585921635142236WETL
2024-11-06 07:00:04FORECAST20253711742.76426.00634.38528.261898501.466.267.72TT10.76494.76456342.033846509829.66652585362520.641715228829211635142236WETL
2024-11-06 03:00:03FORECAST20253711742.83625.8834.35828.230607301.466.267.72TT10.83694.83656342.013509549839.65524907939620.644673141585921635142236WETL
2024-11-05 23:00:01FORECAST20253711742.83626.20434.5226.385098401.066.267.32TT10.83695.83656340.81120216728.99233710500390.644673141585921635142236WETL
2024-11-05 19:00:01FORECAST20253711743.41226.61835.01526.331568801.066.267.32TT11.41296.41256340.776244665058.97317313180350.668010594221551635142236WETL
2024-11-05 15:00:01FORECAST20253711743.05226.02434.53826.368862401.066.267.32TT11.05296.05256340.800599750538.98652412065930.653494131082051635142236WETL
2024-11-05 11:00:01FORECAST20253711742.54825.98834.26826.79827375333601.066.267.32TT10.54895.54856341.08086643829.14037843083590.632790992238731635142236WETL
2024-11-05 07:00:03FORECAST20253711742.06225.733.88126.81659698582801.046.267.3TT10.06295.06256341.092818782069.14694865603860.61245407176871635142236WETL
2024-11-05 03:00:03FORECAST20253711741.70224.76433.23326.89274558711101.066.267.32TT9.70293.70256341.142484968189.17425805720390.59718467731741635142236WETL
2024-11-04 23:00:01FORECAST20253711739.77623.1831.47826.09420787494601.396.267.65TT7.77691.77656340.621178849078.88823984749680.513528302857561635142236WETL
2024-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20253711739.50623.70231.60426.16061720986701.46.267.66TT7.50692.50656340.664572906248.9119954887630.501666113025991635142236WETL
2024-11-04 15:00:01FORECAST20253711739.61423.3631.48726.1686498804801.416.267.67TT7.61492.61456340.669821222838.91486927642590.506411753319291635142236WETL
2024-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20253711740.42423.91832.17130.1658410171701.446.267.7TT8.42493.42456343.2682316509710.3549749022280.541928875522361635141218WETL
2024-11-04 07:00:04FORECAST20253711740.6424.04432.34229.74083440889901.486.267.74TT8.6493.6456342.9932039612510.2009040823890.551355525653151635141218WETL
2024-11-04 03:00:04FORECAST20253711741.07224.6232.84629.82378522094501.496.267.75TT9.07294.07256343.0469059070310.2309572424810.570116900778141635141218WETL
2024-11-03 23:00:02FORECAST20253711741.21625.01633.11627.94177159830801.286.167.44TT9.21692.21656341.825711418689.551215954890.576337818926441635142236WETL
2024-11-03 19:00:02FORECAST20253711740.49624.04432.2727.97359827219201.276.167.43TT8.49690.49656341.846411563879.56267418787810.545073979982211635142236WETL
2024-11-03 15:00:02FORECAST20253711741.21625.37633.29627.29353036685801.126.167.28TT9.21692.21656341.40372941359.3181130561060.576337818926441635142236WETL
2024-11-03 11:00:02FORECAST20253711742.2625.6133.93528.43426147148401.186.167.34TT10.2693.2656342.145840692729.72866429563740.620780337772161635142236WETL
2024-11-03 07:00:03FORECAST20253711740.65823.88232.2728.37889083457301.146.147.28TT8.65891.65856342.109868535639.70869861260250.552139847354491635142236WETL
2024-11-03 03:00:04FORECAST20253711739.84824.67432.26128.35119909345101.096.147.23TT7.84888.84856342.091876386669.69871489569050.51668996616751635142236WETL
2024-11-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253711740.78425.19632.9926.82745008183101.016.297.3TT8.78489.78456341.099898053089.15084048793660.557624223922071635142236WETL
2024-11-02 20:00:01FORECAST20253711740.62225.7933.20623.31402576215600.976.377.34TT8.62287.62256338.797932630477.89874372951180.550571003198711635132227WETL
2024-11-02 16:00:03FORECAST20253711740.67625.7933.23323.94946408023901.116.417.52TT8.67688.67656339.215789516498.12403636647530.552923965272211635142236WETL
2024-11-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253711740.98224.22432.60325.4706373050101.096.397.48TT8.98289.98256340.213359955538.6654510977460.56621986662741635142236WETL
2024-11-02 08:00:03FORECAST20253711741.52225.80833.66525.53622460990901.126.487.6TT9.52295.52256340.256284849438.6888609148480.589492433705351635142236WETL
2024-11-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253711738.10224.18831.14526.85089352041301.196.517.7TT6.10286.10256341.115189102459.15924762078550.440195037500791625142232WETL
2024-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20253711740.124.49432.29727.69840560383101.187.138.31TT8.189.156341.667370258759.46364140302110.527746224653661635142236WETL
2024-11-01 20:00:02FORECAST20253711740.13624.63832.38718.1889143203501.227.098.31TT8.13688.13656335.40294848646.10061549281180.529324145643491635142236WETL
2024-11-01 16:00:02FORECAST20253711741.25224.92633.08917.39151169763601.037.138.16TT9.25290.25256334.870747480845.82390852200920.577890143745921635142236WETL
2024-11-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253711741.4525.23233.34123.1651475614701.317.088.39TT9.4590.4556338.699934492667.84603396158290.58640569422151635142236WETL
2024-11-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253711739.99223.97231.98224.92315643157801.467.378.83TT7.99289.99256339.854771279188.47025362860920.523009947031461635142236WETL
2024-11-01 04:00:04FORECAST20253711743.23227.69835.46524.90956627459701.487.358.83TT11.23294.23256339.845863662518.4654130640490.660782176078021635142236WETL
2024-11-01 00:00:03FORECAST20253711745.15829.08437.12126.89233233932901.627.298.91TT13.15899.15856341.142215462679.1741098331970.734592840980021645152250WETL
2024-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253711745.2329.53437.38221.21301272438901.287.338.61TT13.23100.2356337.41151944617.15751485536550.737186437143721645142240WETL
2024-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20253711744.83431.2838.05720.25575867801201.147.288.42TT12.83499.83456336.777390563826.82168155147140.722763373544221645142240WETL
2024-10-31 12:00:03FORECAST20253711746.07633.78239.92922.87329151767801.037.588.61TT14.076105.07656338.507714525357.74278563532150.766662577603231645142240WETL
2024-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253711746.38233.54839.96521.74015852972300.967.398.35TT14.382106.38256337.760067191027.34295740574250.776854988356971645132230WETL
2024-10-31 04:00:04FORECAST20253711746.70632.41439.5622.28326042945500.967.518.47TT14.706106.70656338.118677315547.5343865426850.787365742881891645132230WETL
2024-10-31 00:00:03FORECAST20253711746.16630.27238.21927.90348071429201.17.598.69TT14.166109.16656341.800804717859.53743216257410.769686828019961645142240WETL
2024-10-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253711747.22831.49639.36226.45159623706701.377.899.26TT15.228110.22856340.854621956639.01614883553490.803678645103421645142240WETL
2024-10-30 16:00:03FORECAST20253711746.86831.31639.09229.00016628466901.768.19.86TT14.868108.86856342.513197185439.93293967307120.792511022339641645152250WETL
2024-10-30 12:00:03FORECAST20253711743.08826.3334.70925.72380226524101.097.528.61TT11.088109.08856340.379009249418.75584232917060.654956396371641635142236WETL
2024-10-30 08:00:03FORECAST20253711742.42226.7834.60125.85345124018301.277.188.45TT10.422103.42256340.463799112138.80216422939290.627551514149131635142236WETL
2024-10-30 04:00:05FORECAST20253711742.22426.13234.17824.08480101798201.116.857.96TT10.224102.22456339.304698437528.17208614633380.619270504837591635142236WETL
2024-10-30 00:00:03FORECAST20253711741.928.68835.29424.75076405438701.266.798.05TT9.9103.956339.741754560078.40886800653980.605602807725161635142236WETL
2024-10-29 20:00:03FORECAST20253711741.46828.2234.84424.3104935787720.0047244121.2247244126.657.874724412TT9.46898.46856339.452898066048.25226749873010.587177887683071635142236WETL
2024-10-29 16:00:03FORECAST20253711741.50427.98634.74521.9277735362520.0161417410.9461417416.377.316141741TT9.504100.50456337.8840052927.40904394956480.588721260307131635132227WETL
2024-10-29 12:00:03FORECAST20253711740.96426.633.78216.1373424880290.0055118140.5455118145.596.135511814TF8.964101.96456334.031508152515.39038084884980.565439674229961635132227WETL
2024-10-29 08:00:03FORECAST20253711741.41428.65235.03317.1261690394810.0055118140.3755118145.926.295511814TF9.414104.41456334.693413810915.73201598132650.584860307439471635122218WETL
2024-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20253711735.92422.1929.05719.188654608310.0055118140.9655118145.656.615511814TT3.92498.92456336.068672228886.44870567607320.348126361477491625132224WETL
2024-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20253711734.17820.3927.28419.68044841966300.885.816.69TT2.17896.17856336.395536281846.62041500039980.28004196606821625132224WETL
2024-10-28 20:00:03FORECAST20253711734.46619.61627.04115.053934388620.0007874020.9407874025.816.750787402TT2.46697.46656333.304379891475.01754226632590.290820050276821625132224WETL
2024-10-28 16:00:03FORECAST20253711740.31627.51833.91713.29382888066200.525.946.46TF8.316107.31656332.118812557984.41513066219430.53720635374751635133240.5WETM
2024-10-28 12:00:03FORECAST20253711752.39432.12642.268.593573635368900.544.785.32TF20.394122.39456328.926727755542.82665605560820.922861039066691655133249.5WETMH
2024-10-28 08:00:04FORECAST20253711755.18432.30643.7458.43926046722220.0216535550.7016535554.735.431653555TF23.184127.18456328.821281552612.77500844218830.958441042504221655133249.5WETMH
2024-10-28 04:00:05FORECAST20253711755.18432.3643.7729.20780468415460.0216535550.7016535554.875.571653555TF23.184127.18456329.346038384583.03255399494530.958441042504221655133249.5WETMH
2024-10-28 00:00:04FORECAST20253711735.67228.2231.94620.5376952517960.059055150.819055155.326.13905515TF3.672103.67256336.964318459696.92047048325410.3379214924371625132224WETL
2024-10-27 20:00:03FORECAST20253711727.78827.08627.43712.74858294169200.615.426.03TF-4.21294.78856331.750470626644.22934839072920.0990344265349211615133231.5WETL
2024-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20253711731.47826.83429.15613.99187678774700.245.635.87TF-0.52299.47856332.589636163854.65355321008620.189375639634051615123221WETL
2024-10-27 12:00:04FORECAST20253711738.28236.80637.54419.09753763078800.196.316.5TF6.282117.28256336.00806772696.41692671766290.448027012639271625122216WETL
2024-10-27 08:00:03FORECAST20253711744.72640.15442.4418.9197638210900.226.66.82TT12.726137.72656335.889784906496.35495540034740.718763751553961645122220WETM
2024-10-27 04:00:06FORECAST20253711740.6440.44240.54120.33291563111100.236.987.21TT8.64136.6456336.828560008916.84870669280970.551355525653151635122218WETM