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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 14, 2024

[ Sunday, October 13, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, October 15, 2024 ]

DAY 14 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/15/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.40°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.721
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 420

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 80
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.95 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 94

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-15 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025149454.2699646.5299650.399960000.050.05FF22.26996420.2699680346.95351932015 00.7209410598671516 44315227.5DRYL
2024-10-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025149452.50243.26847.88500.0307086780.0307086780.050.080708678FF20.502418.50279345.9981085628100.659978755369751634315225DRYL
2024-10-14 12:00:01FORECAST2025149452.59243.05247.82200.0425197080.0425197080.050.092519708FF20.592418.59279345.9981085628100.663204077748211634315225DRYL
2024-10-14 09:27:00FORECAST2025149451.8942.09846.99400.0244094620.0244094620.050.074409462FF19.89417.8979345.9981085628100.637746014239251634315225DRYL
2024-10-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025149451.06240.85645.95900.0212598540.0212598540.050.071259854FF19.062417.06279345.9981085628100.606924700693441634315225DRYL
2024-10-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025149451.47640.58646.03100.0263779670.0263779670.050.076377967FF19.476417.47679345.9981085628100.62243278683071634315225DRYL
2024-10-14 00:00:01FORECAST2025149450.68440.145.39200.0307086780.0307086780.050.080708678FF18.684409.68480346.9535193201500.592614720230311634315225DRYL
2024-10-13 20:00:01FORECAST2025149451.65640.31645.98600.0334645850.0334645850.050.083464585FF19.656409.65680346.9535193201500.629115992501961634315225DRYL
2024-10-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025149451.56641.05446.3100.0248031630.0248031630.050.074803163FF19.566409.56680346.9535193201500.625779112796371634315225DRYL
2024-10-13 12:00:01FORECAST2025149450.7242.4446.5800.0559055420.0559055420.050.105905542FF18.72408.7280346.9535193201500.593983239215471634315225DRYL
2024-10-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025149450.66642.56646.61600.086614220.086614220.050.13661422FF18.666408.66680346.9535193201500.591930035563371634315225DRYL
2024-10-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025149451.18842.49446.84100.0925197350.0925197350.050.142519735FF19.188409.18880346.9535193201500.611663802941141634325250DRYMH
2024-10-13 00:00:01FORECAST2025149450.7242.29646.50800.0732283860.0732283860.050.123228386FF18.72402.7280346.9535193201500.593983239215471634315225DRYL
2024-10-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025149450.50442.09846.30100.0834646120.0834646120.050.133464612FF18.504402.50480346.9535193201500.585755481372371634315225DRYL
2024-10-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025149450.07241.52245.79700.1039370640.1039370640.050.153937064FF18.072402.07280346.9535193201500.569190103163131634325250DRYMH
2024-10-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025149450.1841.7245.9500.0405512030.0405512030.050.090551203FF18.18401.1880346.9535193201500.573344071583891634315225DRYL
2024-10-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025149450.5442.20646.37300.0350393890.0350393890.050.085039389FF18.54402.5480346.9535193201500.587129494432071634315225DRYL
2024-10-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025149450.01842.3546.18400.1122047850.1122047850.050.162204785FF18.018401.01880346.9535193201500.567110215125251634325250DRYMH
2024-10-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025149450.25241.9946.12100.0614173560.0614173560.050.111417356FF18.252397.25280346.9535193201500.576108901401811634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025149451.06242.96247.01200.059055150.059055150.050.10905515FF19.062401.06280346.9535193201500.606924700693441634315225DRYL
2024-10-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025149451.04442.67446.85900.0685039740.0685039740.050.118503974FF19.044400.04480346.9535193201500.606246372863411634315225DRYL
2024-10-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025149452.1643.747.9300.0503937280.0503937280.050.100393728FF20.16402.1680346.9535193201500.647617220236771634315225DRYL
2024-10-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025149451.96243.6147.78600.0248031630.0248031630.050.074803163FF19.962402.96280346.9535193201500.640387622486771634315225DRYL
2024-10-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025149452.50243.75448.12800.0244094620.0244094620.050.074409462FF20.502402.50280346.9535193201500.659978755369751634315225DRYL
2024-10-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025149452.44842.72847.58800.0496063260.0496063260.050.099606326FF20.448399.44880346.9535193201500.65803791160721634315225DRYL
2024-10-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025149452.7942.58447.68700.0492126250.0492126250.050.099212625FF20.79400.7980346.9535193201500.670257433532111634315225DRYL
2024-10-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025149452.9744.00648.48800.0377952960.0377952960.050.087795296FF20.97402.9780346.9535193201500.676617569546311634315225DRYL
2024-10-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025149453.31243.10648.20900.0177165450.0177165450.050.067716545FF21.312400.31280346.9535193201500.688559620805481634315225DRYL
2024-10-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025149452.742.27847.48900.0173228440.0173228440.050.067322844FF20.7397.780346.9535193201500.667058671804671634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025149452.91642.29647.60600.0106299270.0106299270.050.060629927FF20.916400.91680346.9535193201500.674714829524791634315225DRYL
2024-10-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025149453.99641.19847.59700.019685050.019685050.070.08968505FF21.996400.99680346.9535193201500.711848955043851644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 20:00:03FORECAST2025149454.03241.34247.68700.019685050.019685050.080.09968505FF22.032400.03280346.9535193201500.71305164312971644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025149453.70841.3647.53400.0188976480.0188976480.080.098897648FF21.708400.70880346.9535193201500.702142988177921644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025149454.3243.26848.7940000.080.08FF22.32402.3280346.9535193201500.722586598077351644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025149454.75243.35849.0550000.090.09FF22.752402.75280346.9535193201500.73659242438141644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025149453.58242.848.1910000.080.08FF21.582396.58280346.9535193201500.697850302961911634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025149453.00642.78247.89400.0122047310.0122047310.10.112204731FF21.006393.00680346.9535193201500.677883507399111634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-08 20:00:03FORECAST2025149451.87242.06246.96700.0122047310.0122047310.080.092204731FF19.872392.87280346.9535193201500.637084580637291634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025149452.95243.37648.16400.0122047310.0122047310.090.102204731FF20.952398.95280346.9535193201500.675983832415771634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025149454.57245.01449.7930000.080.08FF22.572398.57280346.9535193201500.730800734539321644215225DRYL
2024-10-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025149455.54445.03250.2880000.070.07FF23.544403.54480346.9535193201500.761299434042461644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025149455.9444.90650.42300.0791339010.0791339010.070.149133901FF23.94403.9480346.9535193201500.773161173408061644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025149450.940.20845.55400.1937008920.1937008920.070.263700892FF18.9391.980346.9535193201500.600808306515571634225245DRYM
2024-10-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025149449.96441.28845.62600.2188977560.2188977560.070.288897756FF17.964391.96480346.9535193201500.56502846646671634225245DRYM
2024-10-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025149449.33441.84645.5900.1314961340.1314961340.070.201496134FF17.334391.33480346.9535193201500.540623113871431634225245DRYM
2024-10-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025149448.63240.96444.79800.2791340090.2791340090.470.749134009FF16.632380.63280346.9535193201500.513251222984531634225245DRYM
2024-10-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025149447.340.2843.7900.3200789130.3200789130.370.690078913FF15.3373.380346.9535193201500.461249326373431624225240DRYM
2024-10-07 04:00:06FORECAST2025149447.58839.90243.74500.3232285210.3232285210.290.613228521FF15.588374.58880346.9535193201500.472467481267251624225240DRYM
2024-10-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025149448.240.06444.13200.3720474450.3720474450.110.482047445FF16.2380.280346.9535193201500.496367612230021624225240DRYM
2024-10-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025149450.25241.07245.66200.476378210.476378210.210.68637821FF18.252376.25280346.9535193201500.576108901401811634225245DRYM
2024-10-06 16:00:03FORECAST2025149454.39245.2349.81100.0641732630.2741732630.480.754173263FF22.392375.39280346.9535193201500.724945933917041644225250DRYMH
2024-10-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025149449.98240.56845.27500.279527710.469527710.551.01952771FF17.982361.98280346.9535193201500.565722585928441634225245DRYM
2024-10-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025149450.88240.80245.84200.1704725330.3504725330.510.860472533FF18.882362.88280346.9535193201500.600127147265611634225245DRYM
2024-10-06 04:00:05FORECAST2025149446.02237.77841.900.7169295210.8269295210.471.296929521FF14.022357.02280346.9535193201500.41196048079651624235260DRYH
2024-10-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025149448.59638.31843.45700.2118111380.3018111380.30.601811138FF16.596354.59680346.9535193201500.511844744950541634225245DRYM
2024-10-05 20:00:04FORECAST2025149446.90438.1242.51200.2145670450.2145670450.270.484567045FF14.904348.90480346.9535193201500.445876372014191624225240DRYM
2024-10-05 16:00:03FORECAST2025149449.89238.58844.2400.255905650.305905650.360.66590565FF17.892351.89280346.9535193201500.562250005215241634225245DRYM
2024-10-05 12:00:04FORECAST2025149460.27846.00453.14100.1543307920.1543307920.120.274330792FF28.278377.27880346.9535193201500.879928576655081654225255DRYH
2024-10-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025149463.1446.72454.9320000.090.09FF31.14378.1480346.9535193201500.927244758992841654215227.5DRYL
2024-10-05 04:00:06FORECAST2025149463.1446.72454.9320000.080.08FF31.14382.1480346.9535193201500.927244758992841654215227.5DRYL
2024-10-05 00:00:04FORECAST2025149448.16440.2844.2220000.650.65FF16.164362.16480346.9535193201500.4949605211931624215220DRYL
2024-10-04 20:00:04FORECAST2025149449.11842.38645.7520000.870.87FF17.118368.11880346.9535193201500.532215429312581634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-04 16:00:04FORECAST2025149447.91239.09243.5020000.90.9FF15.912356.91280346.9535193201500.485113619270331624215220DRYL
2024-10-04 12:00:04FORECAST2025149446.05840.15443.106000.010.870.88FF14.058356.05880346.9535193201500.413333788906121624215220DRYL
2024-10-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025149448.23642.83645.536000.010.930.94FF16.236363.23680346.9535193201500.497774748458321624215220DRYL
2024-10-04 04:00:06FORECAST2025149447.82247.17447.498000.010.950.96FF15.822353.82280346.9535193201500.481598755499421624215220DRYL