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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 15, 2024

[ Monday, October 14, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 16, 2024 ]

DAY 15 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/16/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.93°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.55°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.24°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.480
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 416

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 79
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 95

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-16 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025159547.9340.5544.2400000FF15.93415.9379345.99810856281 00.4804476856436716 24315222.5DRYL
2024-10-16 00:00:01FORECAST2025159546.23838.91242.57500.1354331440.13543314400.135433144FF14.238414.23878345.0390603377700.419179529707531624325245DRYM
2024-10-15 12:00:01FORECAST2025159547.55238.98443.26800.1275591240.12755912400.127559124FF15.552415.55278345.0390603377700.466667606490651624325245DRYM
2024-10-15 08:00:01FORECAST2025159548.09240.11844.10500.1204725060.12047250600.120472506FF16.092416.09278345.0390603377700.486361561365461624325245DRYM
2024-10-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025159547.94840.44244.19500.1118110840.11181108400.111811084FF15.948415.94878345.0390603377700.481104594327361624325245DRYM
2024-10-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025159547.87639.97443.92500.1677166260.19771662600.197716626FF15.876414.87679345.9981085628100.478477285278351624325245DRYM
2024-10-14 20:00:01FORECAST2025159547.58840.04643.81700.2090552310.24905523100.249055231FF15.588414.58879345.9981085628100.467978536021581624325245DRYM
2024-10-14 16:00:01FORECAST2025159547.80440.08243.94300.1870079750.22700797500.227007975FF15.804414.80479345.9981085628100.475850911171631624325245DRYM
2024-10-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025159548.39840.42444.41100.3137796970.35377969700.353779697FF16.398415.39879345.9981085628100.497539351101021624325245DRYM
2024-10-14 09:27:01FORECAST2025159547.40839.39843.40300.307086780.3270867800.32708678FF15.408413.40879345.9981085628100.461427644652511624325245DRYM
2024-10-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025159547.40839.36243.38500.2944883480.31448834800.314488348FF15.408412.40879345.9981085628100.461427644652511624325245DRYM
2024-10-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025159547.37238.85843.11500.381889970.4118899700.41188997FF15.372412.37279345.9981085628100.460118663879741624325245DRYM
2024-10-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025159546.38238.40842.39500.2381891050.26818910500.268189105FF14.382404.38279345.9981085628100.424339364947961624325245DRYM
2024-10-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025159546.0438.53442.28700.2448820220.27488202200.274882022FF14.04404.0479345.9981085628100.412107562739071624325245DRYM
2024-10-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025159545.62638.0341.82800.3374017570.35740175700.357401757FF13.626403.62679345.9981085628100.397415141950641624325245DRYM
2024-10-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025159545.39238.69642.04400.2555119490.31551194900.315511949FF13.392402.39279345.9981085628100.389173222504661624325245DRYM
2024-10-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025159545.51838.60642.06200.1106299810.20062998100.200629981FF13.518402.51879345.9981085628100.393605243641091624325245DRYM
2024-10-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025159545.5939.52442.55700.0846457150.17464571500.174645715FF13.59402.5979345.9981085628100.396144068718871624325245DRYM
2024-10-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025159545.69839.27242.48500.2094489320.27944893200.279448932FF13.698396.69879345.9981085628100.399960545492551624225240DRYM
2024-10-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025159545.539.86642.68300.2405513110.32055131100.320551311FF13.5396.579345.9981085628100.392971238669691624225240DRYM
2024-10-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025159546.45441.25243.85300.1602363070.26023630700.260236307FF14.454396.45479345.9981085628100.426924211167871624225240DRYM
2024-10-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025159548.54242.24245.39200.2279528790.26795287900.267952879FF16.542397.54279345.9981085628100.50280069216171634225245DRYM
2024-10-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025159549.71241.79245.75200.2188977560.25889775600.258897756FF17.712400.71279345.9981085628100.545450655648451634325250DRYMH
2024-10-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025159550.79240.44245.61700.2169292510.32692925100.326929251FF18.792399.79279345.9981085628100.58437083134651634325250DRYMH
2024-10-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025159550.01841.73845.87800.3547246010.41472460100.414724601FF18.018395.01879345.9981085628100.556539250348021634225245DRYM
2024-10-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025159551.81842.47647.14700.2330709920.29307099200.293070992FF19.818400.81879345.9981085628100.620599328733481634325250DRYMH
2024-10-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025159551.09842.45846.77800.271653690.3416536900.34165369FF19.098399.09879345.9981085628100.595266324793361634325250DRYMH
2024-10-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025159548.63243.12445.87800.3732285480.42322854800.423228548FF16.632398.63279345.9981085628100.506088841048841634225245DRYM
2024-10-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025159548.3843.44845.91400.4169293590.43692935900.436929359FF16.38399.3879345.9981085628100.496881694794021624325245DRYM
2024-10-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025159548.70442.8945.79700.4059057310.42590573100.425905731FF16.704399.70479345.9981085628100.508719073050381634325250DRYMH
2024-10-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025159548.88441.9945.43700.4279529870.47795298700.477952987FF16.884395.88479345.9981085628100.515292744672841634225245DRYM
2024-10-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025159549.15441.9945.57200.2173229520.26732295200.267322952FF17.154398.15479345.9981085628100.525144907007181634225245DRYM
2024-10-10 16:00:03FORECAST2025159548.86640.1944.52800.2039371180.24393711800.243937118FF16.866399.86679345.9981085628100.514635535003111634325250DRYMH
2024-10-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025159548.36239.50643.93400.4366144090.45661440900.456614409FF16.362396.36279345.9981085628100.496224046961421624225240DRYM
2024-10-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025159547.64239.61443.62800.4059057310.42590573100.425905731FF15.642393.64279345.9981085628100.46994557715241624225240DRYM
2024-10-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025159546.3138.89442.60200.47244120.482441200.4824412FF14.31395.3179345.9981085628100.421757768468191624225240DRYM
2024-10-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025159544.02436.7740.39700.062992160.082992160.020.10299216FF12.024393.02479345.9981085628100.342090161914051624215220DRYL
2024-10-09 20:00:03FORECAST2025159545.64437.52641.58500.0098425250.0298425250.030.059842525FF13.644393.64479345.9981085628100.398051088118611624215220DRYL
2024-10-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025159545.37438.1241.74700.011811030.031811030.030.06181103FF13.374394.37479345.9981085628100.388541236903661624215220DRYL
2024-10-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025159547.42638.71443.0700.011811030.011811030.030.04181103FF15.426397.42679345.9981085628100.46208229266441624215220DRYL
2024-10-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025159547.49838.82243.1600.0082677210.0082677210.040.048267721FF15.498398.49879345.9981085628100.46470189441311624215220DRYL
2024-10-09 04:00:05FORECAST2025159546.54438.33642.4400.007874020.007874020.030.03787402FF14.544391.54479345.9981085628100.430159673709261624215220DRYL
2024-10-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025159550.37837.29243.83500.0622047580.0722047580.050.122204758FF18.378391.37879345.9981085628100.569527561985921634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-08 20:00:03FORECAST2025159547.5737.2242.39500.0677165720.0777165720.030.107716572FF15.57388.5779345.9981085628100.467323026953861624215220DRYL
2024-10-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025159544.18636.55440.3700.1003937550.1103937550.040.150393755FF12.186391.18679345.9981085628100.347555649239691624225240DRYM
2024-10-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025159545.62636.48241.05400.1275591240.1275591240.030.157559124FF13.626392.62679345.9981085628100.397415141950641624225240DRYM
2024-10-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025159545.96836.69841.33300.0700787780.0700787780.020.090078778FF13.968397.96879345.9981085628100.409542869525581624215220DRYL
2024-10-08 04:00:05FORECAST2025159544.5135.61840.06400.0724409840.1524409840.020.172440984FF12.51396.5179345.9981085628100.358581163846031624225240DRYM
2024-10-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025159540.60433.11636.8600.0779527980.2679527980.020.287952798FF8.604380.60479345.9981085628100.235756332176671614225235DRYL
2024-10-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025159540.7334.50237.61600.2059056230.4259056230.020.445905623FF8.73380.7379345.9981085628100.239324330333031614225235DRYL
2024-10-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025159541.16234.4337.79600.2653544740.3953544740.020.415354474FF9.162380.16279345.9981085628100.251778015259951624225240DRYM
2024-10-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025159540.40634.14237.27400.1767717490.4567717490.420.876771749FF8.406369.40679345.9981085628100.230209127997171614225235DRYL
2024-10-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025159539.75834.93437.34600.2444883210.5644883210.320.884488321FF7.758360.75879345.9981085628100.212573677525421614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-07 04:00:06FORECAST2025159542.60238.8440.72100.5090553930.8290553930.241.069055393FF10.602365.60279345.9981085628100.295631679224981624235260DRYH
2024-10-07 00:00:04FORECAST2025159543.17837.18440.18100.2822836170.6522836170.060.712283617FF11.178371.17879345.9981085628100.314104366516421624235260DRYH
2024-10-06 20:00:04FORECAST2025159542.58437.47240.02800.283464720.763464720.160.92346472FF10.584366.58479345.9981085628100.295062525104231624235260DRYH
2024-10-06 16:00:03FORECAST2025159549.1935.04242.116000.080.620.7FF17.19372.1979345.9981085628100.526457499521081634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025159548.81232.32440.568000.30.670.97FF16.812358.81279345.9981085628100.512663674589511634225245DRYM
2024-10-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025159549.65828.9439.299000.190.620.81FF17.658360.65879345.9981085628100.543489910784231634225245DRYM
2024-10-06 04:00:06FORECAST2025159543.28632.75638.02100.1582678020.8782678020.531.408267802FF11.286348.28679345.9981085628100.317622357679651624235260DRYH
2024-10-06 00:00:04FORECAST2025159541.3634.03437.69700.0535433360.2635433360.340.603543336FF9.36344.3679345.9981085628100.257598079559091624225240DRYM
2024-10-05 20:00:04FORECAST2025159543.4334.3438.88500.0338582860.2438582860.220.463858286FF11.43340.4379345.9981085628100.322338683489421624225240DRYM
2024-10-05 16:00:03FORECAST2025159543.30435.27639.2900.0547244390.3147244390.360.674724439FF11.304343.30479345.9981085628100.318210304081531624225240DRYM
2024-10-05 12:00:04FORECAST2025159545.0540.4642.75500.6066932410.7566932410.070.826693241FF13.05370.0579345.9981085628100.37721742859681624235260DRYH
2024-10-05 08:00:04FORECAST2025159549.22646.88648.0560000.040.04FF17.226375.22679345.9981085628100.527769804850011634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 04:00:06FORECAST2025159549.40648.93849.1720000.030.03FF17.406379.40679345.9981085628100.534326527113531634215222.5DRYL