MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 13, 2024

[ Saturday, October 12, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, October 14, 2024 ]

DAY 13 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/14/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.21°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.77°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.929
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 418

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.43 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 81
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 347.91 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 93

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-14 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025139364.2099247.7699855.989950000.430.43FF32.20992418.2099281347.90530640596 00.9286240540131816 54315230DRYL
2024-10-14 00:00:01FORECAST2025139357.09241.10849.10000.430.43FF25.092411.09280346.9535193201500.782234900832061644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-13 12:00:01FORECAST2025139355.65241.03648.3440000.430.43FF23.652409.65280346.9535193201500.739287260113151644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025139355.79640.7348.2630000.430.43FF23.796409.79680346.9535193201500.743769362117961644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025139356.10240.85648.4790000.430.43FF24.102410.10280346.9535193201500.753158926730021644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-13 00:00:01FORECAST2025139357.41640.85649.1360000.430.43FF25.416404.41681347.9053064059600.79130419544411644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025139357.50640.65849.0820000.430.43FF25.506403.50681347.9053064059600.793783448161011644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025139357.75840.87449.3160000.430.43FF25.758403.75881347.9053064059600.800632019068741644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025139357.242.36849.7840000.430.43FF25.2403.281347.9053064059600.785282929584691644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025139357.48842.49449.9910000.430.43FF25.488404.48881347.9053064059600.793288996417731644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025139356.96642.15249.5590000.430.43FF24.966402.96681347.9053064059600.778647576790791644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025139356.4841.7249.10000.430.43FF24.48399.4881347.9053064059600.764499025348941644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025139357.45242.09849.7750000.430.43FF25.452402.45281347.9053064059600.792297993737761644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-11 16:00:01FORECAST2025139356.98441.77449.3790000.430.43FF24.984400.98481347.9053064059600.77916210748021644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025139357.07442.1749.6220000.430.43FF25.074402.07481347.9053064059600.781724484873171644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025139356.8441.86449.3520000.430.43FF24.84402.8481347.9053064059600.7750267567771644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025139356.7541.59449.1720000.430.43FF24.75401.7581347.9053064059600.772420072071481644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025139356.76841.93649.3520000.430.43FF24.768398.76881347.9053064059600.77294276308051644215225DRYL
2024-10-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025139357.0241.97249.4960000.430.43FF25.02400.0281347.9053064059600.780189115509641644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025139357.84842.45850.1530000.430.43FF25.848401.84881347.9053064059600.803044431088911644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025139357.1142.06249.5860000.430.43FF25.11399.1181347.9053064059600.782744628871071644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025139356.49841.6349.0640000.430.43FF24.498397.49881347.9053064059600.765031776126631644215225DRYL
2024-10-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025139356.51642.3549.4330000.430.43FF24.516399.51681347.9053064059600.765563861413911644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025139358.67642.40450.540000.450.45FF26.676398.67681347.9053064059600.824401856696651644215225DRYL
2024-10-09 20:00:03FORECAST2025139358.65842.3550.5040000.460.46FF26.658397.65881347.9053064059600.823953724589091644215225DRYL
2024-10-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025139359.25243.68251.4670000.460.46FF27.252399.25281347.9053064059600.838360195490311644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025139360.04444.79852.4210000.460.46FF28.044400.04481347.9053064059600.856341141061821654315230DRYL
2024-10-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025139359.944.56452.2320000.470.47FF27.9399.981347.9053064059600.853176182978151654315230DRYL
2024-10-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025139359.0945.1452.1150000.460.46FF27.09395.0981347.9053064059600.834509367418161644215225DRYL
2024-10-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025139359.57646.63453.1050000.480.48FF27.576391.57681347.9053064059600.845885632178641644215225DRYL
2024-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025139359.48645.91452.70000.460.46FF27.486393.48681347.9053064059600.843818803824961644215225DRYL
2024-10-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025139360.8948.5654.7250000.470.47FF28.89397.8981347.9053064059600.87400477326221654215227.5DRYL
2024-10-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025139359.0945.71652.4030000.460.46FF27.09396.0981347.9053064059600.834509367418161644215225DRYL
2024-10-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025139360.11646.05853.0870000.450.45FF28.116400.11681347.9053064059600.857906275307591654315230DRYL
2024-10-08 04:00:04FORECAST202513935944.2451.620000.450.45FF2740081347.9053064059600.832344651659781644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025139358.17243.50250.8370000.450.45FF26.172393.17281347.9053064059600.811582074508941644215225DRYL
2024-10-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025139359.03644.58251.8090000.450.45FF27.036394.03681347.9053064059600.83321271139821644215225DRYL
2024-10-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025139357.1143.91650.5130000.450.45FF25.11394.1181347.9053064059600.782744628871071644215225DRYL
2024-10-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025139356.22842.20649.217000.370.480.85FF24.228384.22881347.9053064059600.756971074558531644225250DRYMH
2024-10-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025139355.14841.52248.335000.250.50.75FF23.148378.14881347.9053064059600.723288720405471644225250DRYMH
2024-10-07 04:00:05FORECAST2025139355.442.49448.947000.190.480.67FF23.4379.481347.9053064059600.731347755975321644225250DRYMH
2024-10-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025139356.64242.51249.5770000.490.49FF24.642383.64281347.9053064059600.769269761588221644215225DRYL
2024-10-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025139356.89441.82849.361000.010.580.59FF24.894377.89481347.9053064059600.776582624300511644215225DRYL
2024-10-06 16:00:03FORECAST2025139356.04842.94449.49600.0212598540.4812598540.591.071259854FF24.048373.04881347.9053064059600.75151541863071644225250DRYMH
2024-10-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025139353.92441.84647.88500.0240157610.5440157610.581.124015761FF21.924363.92481347.9053064059600.68254764765121634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025139353.94241.97247.95700.0240157610.5340157610.541.074015761FF21.942363.94281347.9053064059600.683164828288441634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-06 04:00:05FORECAST2025139357.32645.2351.27800.0027559070.4027559070.560.962755907FF25.326363.32681347.9053064059600.788807495613641644225250DRYMH
2024-10-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025139358.17246.6752.421000.180.590.77FF26.172358.17281347.9053064059600.811582074508941644225250DRYMH
2024-10-05 20:00:04FORECAST2025139357.00245.35651.179000.080.570.65FF25.002354.00281347.9053064059600.779675953928291644215225DRYL
2024-10-05 16:00:03FORECAST2025139356.78642.96249.874000.220.570.79FF24.786353.78681347.9053064059600.77346477773771644225250DRYMH
2024-10-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025139359.68445.71652.7000.020.480.5FF27.684368.68481347.9053064059600.848341899708641644215225DRYL
2024-10-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025139359.12644.88852.0070000.470.47FF27.126367.12681347.9053064059600.835370181441851644215225DRYL
2024-10-05 04:00:05FORECAST2025139358.89244.4251.6560000.460.46FF26.892370.89281347.9053064059600.829723093264421644215225DRYL
2024-10-05 00:00:04FORECAST2025139357.77643.77250.774000.021.011.03FF25.776365.77681347.9053064059600.801115916532631644215225DRYL
2024-10-04 20:00:04FORECAST2025139358.53244.16851.35000.011.241.25FF26.532370.53281347.9053064059600.820796604498751644215225DRYL
2024-10-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025139357.0242.06249.541000.021.261.28FF25.02361.0281347.9053064059600.780189115509641644215225DRYL
2024-10-04 12:00:04FORECAST2025139358.15444.34851.251000.031.231.26FF26.154362.15481347.9053064059600.811113821150041644215225DRYL
2024-10-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025139361.05246.59853.825000.011.311.32FF29.052367.05281347.9053064059600.877207062267551654215227.5DRYL
2024-10-04 04:00:05FORECAST2025139358.74843.66451.206000.081.261.34FF26.748357.74881347.9053064059600.82618716519511644215225DRYL
2024-10-04 00:00:04FORECAST2025139346.9441.97244.456000.71.312.01FF14.94341.9481347.9053064059600.421797114426871624235260DRYH
2024-10-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025139346.43639.72243.079000.71.121.82FF14.436342.43681347.9053064059600.40291760875611624235260DRYH
2024-10-03 16:00:04FORECAST2025139343.28639.72241.504000.51.111.61FF11.286342.28681347.9053064059600.291515749867081624235260DRYH
2024-10-03 12:00:04FORECAST2025139339.88434.53837.21100.0023622060.3923622061.211.602362206FF7.884347.88481347.9053064059600.190394675085991614225235DRYL
2024-10-03 08:00:04FORECAST2025139354.93249.98252.457000.371.251.62FF22.932386.93281347.9053064059600.716288105481781644225250DRYMH
2024-10-03 04:00:06FORECAST2025139354.6854.64454.662000.741.292.03FF22.68389.6881347.9053064059600.708015172789881644235275DRYVH