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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 7, 2024

[ Sunday, October 6, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, October 8, 2024 ]

DAY 7 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/08/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.15°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.96°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.839
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 427

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.17 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.17 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 87
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 353.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 87

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-08 04:00:03OBSERVATION202578764.1499847.9600656.055020001.171.17FF32.14998427.1499887353.54069783457 00.83947864472916 44315227.5DRYL
2024-10-08 00:00:01FORECAST202578759.95442.8951.4220001.171.17FF27.954422.95486352.6103659753100.741635912401771644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-07 12:00:01FORECAST202578759.46843.28651.3770001.171.17FF27.468422.46886352.6103659753100.728596138354951644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-07 08:00:02FORECAST202578759.23443.3451.2870001.171.17FF27.234422.23486352.6103659753100.7222029787461644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-07 04:00:04FORECAST202578759.21644.6951.9530001.171.17FF27.216422.21686352.6103659753100.721708171681911644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-07 00:00:02FORECAST202578760.45844.47452.4660001.171.17FF28.458420.45887353.5406978345700.754807914030271644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-06 20:00:01FORECAST202578760.11643.95252.0340001.171.17FF28.116421.11687353.5406978345700.745909322693821644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-06 16:00:01FORECAST202578760.20644.25852.2320001.171.17FF28.206421.20687353.5406978345700.748267340938161644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-06 12:00:02FORECAST202578759.73844.8752.3040001.171.17FF27.738420.73887353.5406978345700.735880723844081644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-06 08:00:02FORECAST202578759.64844.56452.1060001.171.17FF27.648420.64887353.5406978345700.733463623901881644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-06 04:00:04FORECAST202578758.65843.80851.2330001.171.17FF26.658419.65887353.5406978345700.706160070133981644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-06 00:00:02FORECAST202578758.2843.26850.7740001.171.17FF26.28414.2887353.5406978345700.695404585219691634315225DRYL
2024-10-05 20:00:02FORECAST202578757.88443.5250.7020001.171.17FF25.884412.88487353.5406978345700.683953139241041634315225DRYL
2024-10-05 16:00:01FORECAST202578758.02843.5250.77400.0318897810.0318897811.171.201889781FF26.028413.02887353.5406978345700.688138515279551634315225DRYL
2024-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST202578757.86643.48450.67500.0318897810.0318897811.171.201889781FF25.866412.86687353.5406978345700.68342829226511634315225DRYL
2024-10-05 08:00:02FORECAST202578757.81242.78250.29700.0023622060.0023622061.171.172362206FF25.812412.81287353.5406978345700.681851539065331634315225DRYL
2024-10-05 04:00:04FORECAST202578757.99243.28650.63900.0023622060.0023622061.171.172362206FF25.992412.99287353.5406978345700.687094416749571634315225DRYL
2024-10-05 00:00:02FORECAST202578757.16442.60249.88300.0023622060.0023622061.691.692362206FF25.164405.16487353.5406978345700.662680111398181634315225DRYL
2024-10-04 20:00:02FORECAST202578757.27243.28650.2790001.871.87FF25.272405.27287353.5406978345700.6659065389021634315225DRYL
2024-10-04 16:00:02FORECAST202578756.3942.6249.5050001.871.87FF24.39402.3987353.5406978345700.639219024496761634315225DRYL
2024-10-04 12:00:02FORECAST202578757.18242.9850.0810001.871.87FF25.182403.18287353.5406978345700.663218688243451634315225DRYL
2024-10-04 08:00:02FORECAST202578757.3843.10650.2430001.971.97FF25.38399.3887353.5406978345700.669120759949011634315225DRYL
2024-10-04 04:00:04FORECAST202578756.87642.67449.7750001.951.95FF24.876398.87687353.5406978345700.65401820975411634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-04 00:00:02FORECAST202578756.33640.44248.3890001.941.94FF24.336394.33687353.5406978345700.637561245218631634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-03 20:00:02FORECAST202578756.64240.42448.5330001.781.78FF24.642395.64287353.5406978345700.646920355991571634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-03 16:00:02FORECAST202578756.6640.71248.6860001.741.74FF24.66396.6687353.5406978345700.647468200416951634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-03 12:00:03FORECAST202578758.58642.99850.7920001.741.74FF26.586406.58687353.5406978345700.704124979420091644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-03 08:00:03FORECAST202578759.82844.18652.0070001.761.76FF27.828410.82887353.5406978345700.738286622016421644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-03 04:00:04FORECAST202578758.74844.25851.5030001.821.82FF26.748411.74887353.5406978345700.708694797313941644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-03 00:00:03FORECAST202578755.63442.00848.8210001.721.72FF23.634409.63487353.5406978345700.615785642213341634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 20:00:02FORECAST202578755.97642.13449.0550001.641.64FF23.976409.97687353.5406978345700.626444775982911634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 16:00:03FORECAST202578755.5842.22448.9020001.491.49FF23.58408.5887353.5406978345700.614094355173651634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 12:59:58FORECAST202578755.43642.5348.9830001.581.58FF23.436407.43687353.5406978345700.60957372624441634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 12:00:02FORECAST202578755.68841.95448.8210001.581.58FF23.688407.68887353.5406978345700.617474728219181634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 08:00:02FORECAST202578754.0540.96447.507000.011.61.61FF22.05407.0587353.5406978345700.565390335295941634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 04:00:06FORECAST202578754.054147.525000.011.691.7FF22.05407.0587353.5406978345700.565390335295941634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 00:00:02FORECAST202578756.42641.77449.10001.851.85FF24.426408.42687353.5406978345700.640322762099671634315225DRYL
2024-10-01 20:00:03FORECAST202578757.79443.80850.8010001.931.93FF25.794416.79487353.5406978345700.681325220185461634315225DRYL
2024-10-01 16:00:03FORECAST202578758.53243.5251.02600.0082677210.0082677211.931.938267721FF26.532416.53287353.5406978345700.70259443064511644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-01 12:00:04FORECAST202578759.03645.0552.04300.0204724520.0204724521.681.700472452FF27.036424.03687353.5406978345700.716736636550271644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-01 08:00:03FORECAST202578758.06445.06851.56600.023622060.023622061.641.66362206FF26.064423.06487353.5406978345700.702671093973041644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-01 04:00:05FORECAST202578759.21645.64452.430001.651.65FF27.216425.21687353.5406978345700.734939586820061644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-01 00:00:03FORECAST202578758.31644.09651.20600.0090551230.0090551231.481.489055123FF26.316427.31687353.5406978345700.709881094387041644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 20:00:03FORECAST202578759.41444.40251.9080001.511.51FF27.414428.41487353.5406978345700.74030133236721644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 16:00:03FORECAST202578758.69442.09850.3960001.61.6FF26.694423.69487353.5406978345700.720539949939651644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 12:00:03FORECAST202578760.49443.73652.1150001.181.18FF28.494436.49487353.5406978345700.768532783713861644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 08:00:04FORECAST202578760.29643.21451.7550001.171.17FF28.296436.29687353.5406978345700.763488419573531644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 04:00:05FORECAST202578760.24244.70852.4750001.181.18FF28.242437.24287353.5406978345700.76210227510031644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 00:00:04FORECAST202578757.8344.61851.2240001.191.19FF25.83422.8387353.5406978345700.695903788223171634315225DRYL
2024-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202578754.57242.00848.290001.21.2FF22.572421.57287353.5406978345700.595594232551191634315225DRYL
2024-09-29 16:00:03FORECAST202578756.1244.70850.4140001.181.18FF24.12426.1287353.5406978345700.644523156506711634315225DRYL
2024-09-29 12:00:03FORECAST202578759.48647.76853.62700.007874020.007874021.191.19787402FF27.486436.48687353.5406978345700.742237104235181644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 08:00:03FORECAST202578759.70247.60653.65400.0011811030.0011811031.191.191181103FF27.702436.70287353.5406978345700.747999226612491644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 04:00:05FORECAST202578758.15445.87852.016000.011.211.22FF26.154425.15487353.5406978345700.705255475347691644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 00:00:03FORECAST202578758.35245.551.926000.071.381.45FF26.352410.35287353.5406978345700.710904376052591644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-28 20:00:03FORECAST202578759.77446.05852.916000.111.451.56FF27.774417.77487353.5406978345700.749904740524371644325255DRYH
2024-09-28 16:00:04FORECAST202578761.5240.94651.233000.111.491.6FF29.52412.5287353.5406978345700.793690683061811644325255DRYH
2024-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202578753.70837.99445.85100.0110236280.1410236281.321.461023628FF21.708396.70887353.5406978345700.567563479302931634225245DRYM
2024-09-28 08:00:04FORECAST202578749.08234.44841.76500.015748040.185748041.291.47574804FF17.082387.08287353.5406978345700.415205319530921624225240DRYM
2024-09-28 04:00:12FORECAST202578750.19834.57442.38600.0082677210.0982677211.21.298267721FF18.198399.19887353.5406978345700.451666320312751624325245DRYM
2024-09-28 00:00:03FORECAST202578743.55635.04239.299000.061.251.31FF11.556407.55687353.5406978345700.250370354899871624315222.5DRYL
2024-09-27 20:00:04FORECAST202578747.344.45645.878000.031.241.27FF15.3415.387353.5406978345700.358589071104731624315222.5DRYL
2024-09-27 16:00:03FORECAST202578750.16246.09448.128000.011.551.56FF18.162425.16287353.5406978345700.450482051325721624315222.5DRYL
2024-09-27 12:00:04FORECAST202578734.98832.07233.53000.171.551.72FF2.988390.98887353.5406978345700.0828934004979221614225235DRYL
2024-09-27 08:00:04FORECAST202578756.76853.83455.3010001.61.6FF24.768415.76887353.5406978345700.664368631062571634315225DRYL
2024-09-27 04:00:06FORECAST202578745.12243.9744.546001.071.312.38FF13.122382.12287353.5406978345700.293496621251791624245280DRYVH