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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 6, 2024

[ Saturday, October 5, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, October 7, 2024 ]

DAY 6 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/07/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.76°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.580
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 411

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.17 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.17 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 88
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 354.47 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 86

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-07 04:00:03OBSERVATION202568655.8800644.7600250.320040001.171.17FF23.88006410.8800688354.46750114127 00.580404868336616 34315225DRYL
2024-10-07 00:00:02FORECAST202568653.40241.79247.5970001.171.17FF21.402408.40287353.5406978345700.492809006607471624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-06 12:00:01FORECAST202568654.10441.46847.7860001.171.17FF22.104409.10487353.5406978345700.517773965104941634315225DRYL
2024-10-06 08:00:01FORECAST202568654.12241.75647.9390001.171.17FF22.122409.12287353.5406978345700.518413594385021634315225DRYL
2024-10-06 04:00:03FORECAST202568654.3241.59447.9570001.171.17FF22.32409.3287353.5406978345700.525446026779141634315225DRYL
2024-10-06 00:00:01FORECAST202568654.26641.1847.7230001.171.17FF22.266404.26688354.4675011412700.523528784279051634315225DRYL
2024-10-05 20:00:02FORECAST202568654.37441.16247.7680001.171.17FF22.374403.37488354.4675011412700.527362680172571634315225DRYL
2024-10-05 16:00:01FORECAST202568654.01441.4547.7320001.171.17FF22.014403.01488354.4675011412700.514575165299011634315225DRYL
2024-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST202568653.94241.59447.7680001.171.17FF21.942402.94288354.4675011412700.512015440094351634315225DRYL
2024-10-05 08:00:01FORECAST202568654.0540.92847.4890001.171.17FF22.05403.0588354.4675011412700.51585480932261634315225DRYL
2024-10-05 04:00:03FORECAST202568654.0540.94647.4980001.171.17FF22.05403.0588354.4675011412700.51585480932261634315225DRYL
2024-10-05 00:00:02FORECAST202568654.06840.87447.471000.521.171.69FF22.068396.06888354.4675011412700.516494570929011634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-04 20:00:02FORECAST202568653.6940.85647.273000.71.171.87FF21.69395.6988354.4675011412700.503053195388381634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-04 16:00:02FORECAST202568653.34839.88446.616000.71.171.87FF21.348394.34888354.4675011412700.490888545423851624235260DRYH
2024-10-04 12:00:02FORECAST202568653.00640.1946.598000.71.171.87FF21.006394.00688354.4675011412700.478732364757041624235260DRYH
2024-10-04 08:00:02FORECAST202568652.1639.90246.031000.81.171.97FF20.16390.1688354.4675011412700.448770357504251624235260DRYH
2024-10-04 04:00:03FORECAST202568651.92639.68645.806000.781.171.95FF19.926389.92688354.4675011412700.440527011862631624235260DRYH
2024-10-04 00:00:02FORECAST202568651.67438.94845.311000.771.171.94FF19.674385.67488354.4675011412700.431678396090381624235260DRYH
2024-10-03 20:00:02FORECAST202568651.92638.89445.41000.611.171.78FF19.926386.92688354.4675011412700.440527011862631624235260DRYH
2024-10-03 16:00:02FORECAST202568652.2539.30845.779000.571.171.74FF20.25388.2588354.4675011412700.451946972756591624235260DRYH
2024-10-03 12:00:02FORECAST202568654.75240.98247.867000.571.171.74FF22.752395.75288354.4675011412700.540759049035641634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-03 08:00:03FORECAST202568655.14841.95448.551000.591.171.76FF23.148399.14888354.4675011412700.554743613278831634335275DRYVH
2024-10-03 04:00:04FORECAST202568656.24642.99849.622000.651.171.82FF24.246401.24688354.4675011412700.593112293680431634335275DRYVH
2024-10-03 00:00:03FORECAST202568653.6941.39647.543000.551.171.72FF21.69401.6988354.4675011412700.503053195388381634335275DRYVH
2024-10-02 20:00:02FORECAST202568653.79841.3647.579000.471.171.64FF21.798401.79888354.4675011412700.506894609961551634325250DRYMH
2024-10-02 16:00:02FORECAST202568652.71840.29846.508000.321.171.49FF20.718400.71888354.4675011412700.468510442885021624325245DRYM
2024-10-02 12:59:58FORECAST202568652.62841.30646.967000.411.171.58FF20.628399.62888354.4675011412700.465320026815851624325245DRYM
2024-10-02 12:00:02FORECAST202568654.06842.38648.227000.411.171.58FF22.068400.06888354.4675011412700.516494570929011634325250DRYMH
2024-10-02 08:00:02FORECAST202568654.98642.6248.803000.441.171.61FF22.986400.98688354.4675011412700.549029879456841634325250DRYMH
2024-10-02 04:00:05FORECAST202568654.87842.78248.83000.531.171.7FF22.878400.87888354.4675011412700.545214996965041634335275DRYVH
2024-10-02 00:00:02FORECAST202568655.7643.4349.595000.661.191.85FF23.76399.7688354.4675011412700.576216709426121634335275DRYVH
2024-10-01 20:00:02FORECAST202568656.91244.8750.891000.711.221.93FF24.912406.91288354.4675011412700.61598101429231634335275DRYVH
2024-10-01 16:00:02FORECAST202568657.32645.42851.377000.711.221.93FF25.326406.32688354.4675011412700.630001300836561634335275DRYVH
2024-10-01 12:00:04FORECAST202568659.3644.83452.097000.461.221.68FF27.36413.3688354.4675011412700.696102512402921634325250DRYMH
2024-10-01 08:00:03FORECAST202568658.67644.70851.692000.411.231.64FF26.676412.67688354.4675011412700.687904625796971634325250DRYMH
2024-10-01 04:00:05FORECAST202568658.69444.8751.782000.431.221.65FF26.694413.69488354.4675011412700.688480037446471634325250DRYMH
2024-10-01 00:00:02FORECAST202568659.19846.29252.745000.281.21.48FF27.198417.19888354.4675011412700.704400852027391644325255DRYH
2024-09-30 20:00:03FORECAST202568659.52246.63453.078000.321.191.51FF27.522416.52288354.4675011412700.714434127073621644325255DRYH
2024-09-30 16:00:02FORECAST202568657.86644.8751.368000.411.191.6FF25.866412.86688354.4675011412700.661554728514291634325250DRYMH
2024-09-30 12:00:03FORECAST202568660.51246.70653.6090001.181.18FF28.512423.51288354.4675011412700.74404661626651644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 08:00:03FORECAST202568660.90846.43653.6720001.171.17FF28.908423.90888354.4675011412700.755427050850241644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 04:00:05FORECAST202568661.89846.52654.2120001.181.18FF29.898424.89888354.4675011412700.782647336345761644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 00:00:04FORECAST202568656.40844.85250.630001.191.19FF24.408413.40888354.4675011412700.61215332108391634315225DRYL
2024-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202568656.28244.07850.1800.0007874020.0007874021.21.200787402FF24.282415.28288354.4675011412700.607783988785621634315225DRYL
2024-09-29 16:00:03FORECAST202568659.05445.55452.3040001.181.18FF27.054418.05488354.4675011412700.699890249120851644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 12:00:03FORECAST202568663.60845.26654.4370001.191.19FF31.608424.60888354.4675011412700.82530705230851644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 08:00:03FORECAST202568662.83445.35654.0950001.191.19FF30.834424.83488354.4675011412700.806697765228911644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 04:00:05FORECAST202568657.54242.1749.856000.041.181.22FF25.542414.54288354.4675011412700.650779779289731634315225DRYL
2024-09-29 00:00:03FORECAST202568654.80639.30847.057000.251.21.45FF22.806399.80688354.4675011412700.555728721398491634325250DRYMH
2024-09-28 20:00:03FORECAST202568655.09439.00247.048000.361.21.56FF23.094406.09488354.4675011412700.565991457724791634325250DRYMH
2024-09-28 16:00:04FORECAST202568652.4337.41844.924000.391.211.6FF20.43399.4388354.4675011412700.470269937704721624325245DRYM
2024-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202568649.24437.5843.41200.0543307380.2143307381.241.454330738FF17.244391.24488354.4675011412700.35847454778741624225240DRYM
2024-09-28 08:00:04FORECAST202568645.96836.98641.47700.082677210.232677211.231.46267721FF13.968385.96888354.4675011412700.25506314449121624225240DRYM
2024-09-28 04:00:11FORECAST202568648.45237.81443.13300.0421260070.1221260071.171.292126007FF16.452397.45288354.4675011412700.332100312808151624225240DRYM
2024-09-28 00:00:03FORECAST202568654.1440.58647.363000.131.181.31FF22.14412.1488354.4675011412700.531864019346091634325250DRYMH
2024-09-27 20:00:03FORECAST202568656.17440.89248.533000.081.191.27FF24.174416.17488354.4675011412700.60402797998031634315225DRYL
2024-09-27 16:00:03FORECAST20256865942.38650.693000.371.191.56FF2742388354.4675011412700.69819079151351634325250DRYMH
2024-09-27 12:00:03FORECAST202568655.29235.85245.572000.531.191.72FF23.292404.29288354.4675011412700.57302180505961634335275DRYVH
2024-09-27 08:00:04FORECAST202568659.50441.23450.369000.421.181.6FF27.504406.50488354.4675011412700.713880994434451644325255DRYH
2024-09-27 04:00:05FORECAST202568657.4739.6548.56001.141.242.38FF25.47385.4788354.4675011412700.648368382855341634245290DRYVH
2024-09-27 00:00:06FORECAST202568638.17434.23236.203001.541.112.65FF6.174351.17488354.4675011412700.0863334253102141614255287.5DRYVH
2024-09-26 20:00:04FORECAST202568638.1231.8234.9700.0074803191.6074803191.12.707480319FF6.12356.1288354.4675011412700.0855660398828491614255287.5DRYVH
2024-09-26 16:00:04FORECAST202568639.90231.8235.86100.0137795351.2737795351.082.353779535FF7.902354.90288354.4675011412700.113670149199031614245270DRYH
2024-09-26 12:00:04FORECAST202568651.60244.97848.29000.441.121.56FF19.602390.60288354.4675011412700.440609159477641624225240DRYM
2024-09-26 10:22:28FORECAST202568651.60244.97848.29000.441.111.55FF19.602390.60288354.4675011412700.440609159477641624225240DRYM