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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 8, 2024

[ Monday, October 7, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 9, 2024 ]

DAY 8 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/09/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.694
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 442

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.17 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.17 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 86
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 352.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 88

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-09 04:00:03OBSERVATION202588856.0100246.2300851.120050001.171.17FF24.01002442.0100286352.61036597531 00.693955343597616 34315225DRYL
2024-10-09 00:00:02FORECAST202588849.26242.90846.08500.0232283590.0232283591.171.193228359FF17.262435.26285351.6764921294700.478308100807651624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-08 12:00:02FORECAST202588849.9141.97245.94100.0161417410.0161417411.171.186141741FF17.91435.9185351.6764921294700.499807817921381634315225DRYL
2024-10-08 08:00:02FORECAST202588849.78442.31446.04900.0133858340.0133858341.171.183385834FF17.784435.78485351.6764921294700.495625324554581624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-08 04:00:03FORECAST202588849.60442.20645.90500.0185039470.0185039471.171.188503947FF17.604435.60485351.6764921294700.489651281999771624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-08 00:00:01FORECAST202588850.19841.59445.89600.0173228440.0173228441.171.187322844FF18.198432.19886352.6103659753100.509367142277421634315225DRYL
2024-10-07 20:00:01FORECAST202588851.20641.77446.4900.0228346580.0228346581.171.192834658FF19.206432.20686352.6103659753100.542746526377951634315225DRYL
2024-10-07 16:00:02FORECAST202588851.15242.76446.95800.0244094620.0244094621.171.194409462FF19.152432.15286352.6103659753100.540963867479051634315225DRYL
2024-10-07 12:00:01FORECAST202588851.0842.99847.03900.0137795350.0137795351.171.183779535FF19.08432.0886352.6103659753100.538585713219121634315225DRYL
2024-10-07 08:00:02FORECAST202588850.77442.56646.6700.0133858340.0133858341.171.183385834FF18.774431.77486352.6103659753100.528464180189481634315225DRYL
2024-10-07 04:00:04FORECAST202588851.33242.56646.94900.0086614220.0086614221.171.178661422FF19.332432.33286352.6103659753100.546902659284531634315225DRYL
2024-10-07 00:00:02FORECAST202588851.20642.99847.10200.0287401730.0287401731.171.198740173FF19.206430.20686352.6103659753100.542746526377951634315225DRYL
2024-10-06 20:00:02FORECAST202588850.5442.72846.63400.0283464720.0283464721.171.198346472FF18.54430.5486352.6103659753100.520711410594771634315225DRYL
2024-10-06 16:00:02FORECAST202588850.64842.846.72400.0224409570.0224409571.171.192440957FF18.648430.64886352.6103659753100.524290764098451634315225DRYL
2024-10-06 12:00:02FORECAST202588849.58641.57645.58100.0161417410.0161417411.171.186141741FF17.586429.58686352.6103659753100.489053983295871624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-06 08:00:02FORECAST202588850.12641.75645.94100.0141732360.0141732361.171.184173236FF18.126430.12686352.6103659753100.506977601043311634315225DRYL
2024-10-06 04:00:04FORECAST202588850.01841.34245.6800.0425197080.0425197081.171.212519708FF18.018429.01886352.6103659753100.503392846472651634315225DRYL
2024-10-06 00:00:02FORECAST202588849.8241.75645.78800.03937010.03937011.171.2093701FF17.82422.8286352.6103659753100.496820293697621624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 20:00:03FORECAST202588849.31641.59445.45500.0330708840.0330708841.171.203070884FF17.316421.31686352.6103659753100.480098197847021624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 16:00:02FORECAST202588849.24440.7344.98700.0409449040.0709449041.171.240944904FF17.244421.24486352.6103659753100.477711497237481624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST202588849.56841.30645.43700.0216535550.0516535551.171.221653555FF17.568421.56886352.6103659753100.488456709140081624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 08:00:02FORECAST202588849.2840.71244.99600.0283464720.0283464721.171.198346472FF17.28421.2886352.6103659753100.478904752989041624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 04:00:04FORECAST202588850.23441.07245.65300.0248031630.0248031631.171.194803163FF18.234422.23486352.6103659753100.510561792200121634315225DRYL
2024-10-05 00:00:03FORECAST202588852.03441.16246.59800.0161417410.0161417411.691.706141741FF20.034416.03486352.6103659753100.569951839863381634315225DRYL
2024-10-04 20:00:02FORECAST202588852.19641.37846.78700.0114173290.0114173291.871.881417329FF20.196416.19686352.6103659753100.575240123772041634315225DRYL
2024-10-04 16:00:02FORECAST202588851.81841.03646.42700.0114173290.0114173291.871.881417329FF19.818412.81886352.6103659753100.562881391528181634315225DRYL
2024-10-04 12:00:03FORECAST202588851.42241.16246.29200.0114173290.0114173291.871.881417329FF19.422413.42286352.6103659753100.549868210317381634315225DRYL
2024-10-04 08:00:02FORECAST202588851.92641.57646.75100.0114173290.0114173291.971.981417329FF19.926409.92686352.6103659753100.566419272323591634315225DRYL
2024-10-04 04:00:04FORECAST202588852.41241.21646.8140001.951.95FF20.412410.41286352.6103659753100.582270000984611634315225DRYL
2024-10-04 00:00:02FORECAST202588852.01641.91846.96700.0503937280.0503937281.941.990393728FF20.016405.01686352.6103659753100.569363459344431634315225DRYL
2024-10-03 20:00:02FORECAST202588853.04242.27847.6600.0519685320.0519685321.781.831968532FF21.042408.04286352.6103659753100.602616382849711634315225DRYL
2024-10-03 16:00:02FORECAST202588853.09642.6247.85800.0523622330.0523622331.741.792362233FF21.096409.09686352.6103659753100.604348275630831634315225DRYL
2024-10-03 12:00:03FORECAST202588853.61843.53848.57800.0086614220.0086614221.741.748661422FF21.618419.61886352.6103659753100.620979042230311634315225DRYL
2024-10-03 08:00:03FORECAST202588854.91443.1649.03700.007874020.007874021.761.76787402FF22.914424.91486352.6103659753100.661255539904121634315225DRYL
2024-10-03 04:00:05FORECAST202588852.95242.69247.82200.0397638010.0397638011.821.859763801FF20.952423.95286352.6103659753100.599725411207011634315225DRYL
2024-10-03 00:00:03FORECAST202588852.30443.14247.72300.051181130.051181131.721.77118113FF20.304421.30486352.6103659753100.578758200314541634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 20:00:03FORECAST202588851.63843.14247.3900.0480315220.0480315221.641.688031522FF19.638420.63886352.6103659753100.556973872037831634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 16:00:03FORECAST202588852.93443.14248.03800.0173228440.0173228441.491.507322844FF20.934420.93486352.6103659753100.599146555218671634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 12:59:58FORECAST202588852.59242.65647.62400.1409449580.1409449581.581.720944958FF20.592418.59286352.6103659753100.588108318328051634325250DRYMH
2024-10-02 12:00:02FORECAST202588852.64640.8246.73300.1409449580.1409449581.581.720944958FF20.646419.64686352.6103659753100.589856080075841634325250DRYMH
2024-10-02 08:00:02FORECAST202588853.1541.19847.17400.0110236280.0110236281.611.621023628FF21.15419.1586352.6103659753100.606078110970821634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 04:00:06FORECAST202588853.1541.19847.17400.011811030.011811031.71.71181103FF21.15419.1586352.6103659753100.606078110970821634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 00:00:02FORECAST202588855.14841.70248.42500.070866180.070866181.851.92086618FF23.148422.14886352.6103659753100.668350648412671634315225DRYL
2024-10-01 20:00:03FORECAST202588857.86643.05250.4590001.931.93FF25.866433.86686352.6103659753100.745867515392241644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-01 16:00:03FORECAST202588856.28242.3549.31600.0066929170.0166929171.931.946692917FF24.282432.28286352.6103659753100.701848929953361644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-01 12:00:04FORECAST202588853.70841.88247.79500.0098425250.0298425251.681.709842525FF21.708436.70886352.6103659753100.623824870743621634315225DRYL
2024-10-01 08:00:03FORECAST202588854.5942.0848.33500.0098425250.0298425251.641.669842525FF22.59436.5986352.6103659753100.664464879999241634315225DRYL
2024-10-01 04:00:05FORECAST202588854.17642.54848.36200.0011811030.0011811031.651.651181103FF22.176438.17686352.6103659753100.65165988824471634315225DRYL
2024-10-01 00:00:03FORECAST202588853.20440.2846.742000.011.481.49FF21.204439.20486352.6103659753100.620931722943491634315225DRYL
2024-09-30 20:00:03FORECAST202588852.82642.7147.76800.0137795350.0137795351.511.523779535FF20.826439.82686352.6103659753100.608759736225371634315225DRYL
2024-09-30 16:00:03FORECAST202588857.0245.71651.36800.0188976480.0188976481.61.618897648FF25.02440.0286352.6103659753100.735451255393711644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 12:00:03FORECAST202588858.2846.90452.59200.0015748040.0015748041.181.181574804FF26.28453.2886352.6103659753100.768994531213081644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 08:00:04FORECAST202588858.51445.24851.88100.0015748040.0015748041.171.171574804FF26.514453.51486352.6103659753100.7749521673181644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 04:00:05FORECAST202588857.34442.850.07200.0200787510.0200787511.181.200078751FF25.344453.34486352.6103659753100.74430675010541644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 00:00:04FORECAST202588855.5843.6149.59500.0287401730.0287401731.191.218740173FF23.58437.5886352.6103659753100.694299731787931634315225DRYL
2024-09-29 20:00:04FORECAST202588855.05841.3648.20900.0291338740.0291338741.21.229133874FF23.058436.05886352.6103659753100.678712924091521634315225DRYL
2024-09-29 16:00:04FORECAST202588854.48242.38648.4340001.181.18FF22.482439.48286352.6103659753100.661142068321151634315225DRYL
2024-09-29 12:00:03FORECAST202588857.54241.30649.424000.011.191.2FF25.542452.54286352.6103659753100.749641342095031644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 08:00:03FORECAST202588855.79638.13846.9670001.191.19FF23.796451.79686352.6103659753100.70065006942851644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 04:00:06FORECAST202588858.60438.13848.3710001.221.22FF26.604442.60486352.6103659753100.777220214149391644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 00:00:04FORECAST202588848.2935.52841.9090001.451.45FF16.29417.2986352.6103659753100.457791399888881624315222.5DRYL
2024-09-28 20:00:04FORECAST202588848.97443.28646.130001.561.56FF16.974425.97486352.6103659753100.480705451832381624315222.5DRYL
2024-09-28 16:00:04FORECAST202588848.97443.28646.130001.61.6FF16.974420.97486352.6103659753100.480705451832381624315222.5DRYL
2024-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202588840.5535.7838.165000.061.41.46FF8.55396.5586352.6103659753100.224220397535411614215217.5DRYL
2024-09-28 08:00:04FORECAST202588833.54829.94831.748000.11.381.48FF1.548379.54886352.6103659753100.0887641098747941614225235DRYL
2024-09-28 04:00:12FORECAST202588834.17833.45833.818000.051.251.3FF2.178392.17886352.6103659753100.0976192805435311614215217.5DRYL