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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 1, 2024

[ Sunday, December 31, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 2, 2024 ]

DAY 93 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/02/2024 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.37°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.669
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 144

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.51 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.36 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.87 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 58 in
SWE DAY: 1
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 305.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.72 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -192

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-02 07:00:05OBSERVATION202493-19234.6899223.3700829.0357.99036958333300.513.363.87TF2.68992143.689921305.49373514714 17.7156946065750.6694752138580616 3113127.5DRYL
2024-01-02 03:00:04OBSERVATION202493-19234.6899223.3700829.0357.99036958333300.513.363.87TF2.68992143.689921305.49373514714 17.7156946065750.6694752138580616 3113127.5DRYL
2024-01-01 11:00:01FORECAST202493-19231.33421.84826.5915800.513.363.87TF-0.666140.3341305.5008876848417.7190514857210.50606370778065163113127.5DRYL
2024-01-01 07:00:06FORECAST202493-19231.49622.20826.85258.38735041666700.513.363.87TF-0.504140.4961305.7884289417217.8541761539820.51421214631942163113127.5DRYL
2024-01-01 03:00:04FORECAST202493-19231.24422.67626.9658.38735041666700.513.363.87TF-0.756140.2441305.7884289417217.8541761539820.50153548609381163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-31 23:00:01FORECAST202493-19232.6322.76627.69857.993997600.473.363.83TF0.63134.631305.4964297059217.7169592111740.5708963095728163112125DRYL
2023-12-31 19:00:01FORECAST202493-19232.55822.31627.43757.995768800.473.363.83TF0.558134.5581305.4977451821817.7175765985070.56732805766405163112125DRYL
2023-12-31 15:00:02FORECAST202493-19232.75623.34228.04957.99311200.473.363.83TF0.756134.7561305.4957719655717.7166505191260.57712666290577163112125DRYL
2023-12-31 11:00:02FORECAST202493-19232.5424.87228.70657.99606400.473.363.83TF0.54134.541305.4979644276517.7176794968150.56643512439734163112125DRYL
2023-12-31 07:00:05FORECAST202493-19232.84624.04428.44558.249098300.473.363.83TF0.846134.8461305.6858329197217.8059241306580.58156523014566163112125DRYL
2023-12-31 03:00:06FORECAST202493-19232.16224.4428.30158.256871900.473.363.83TF0.162133.1621305.6916026151217.8086365344550.54761210239414163112125DRYL
2023-12-30 23:00:02FORECAST202493-19231.78423.91827.8515900.323.363.68TF-0.216129.7841306.2426390071518.0683157014220.52868144591517163112125DRYL
2023-12-30 19:00:02FORECAST202493-19233.18825.17829.18358.983370400.323.363.68TF1.188132.1881306.2303193780318.0624963555850.59833268259685163112125DRYL
2023-12-30 15:00:01FORECAST202493-19232.34223.14427.74358.99803200.323.363.68TF0.342130.3421306.2411810900218.0676270016670.55659145942425163112125DRYL
2023-12-30 11:00:02FORECAST202493-19231.96423.1827.57259.99926618731300.323.363.68TF-0.036000000000001129.9641306.9819664347918.4186927188260.53770678348103163112125DRYL
2023-12-30 07:00:05FORECAST202493-19232.19823.05427.62660.22302151553400.293.363.65TF0.198132.1981307.1472593877818.4973360105480.54941007330142163112125DRYL
2023-12-30 03:00:04FORECAST202493-19231.53223.77427.65360.46240021346200.363.363.72TF-0.468130.5321307.3239896860618.5815460595960.51602222469116163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 23:00:01FORECAST202493-19231.7324.04427.88761.10250202135400.353.363.71TF-0.27124.731307.7960413404718.807108238170.52597075671945163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 19:00:03FORECAST202493-19232.23424.56628.460.71393532532300.263.363.62TF0.234128.2341307.5095791691818.6701167015950.5512070308718163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 15:00:02FORECAST202493-19232.23424.56628.460.71393532532300.263.363.62TF0.234128.2341307.5095791691818.6701167015950.5512070308718163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 11:00:02FORECAST202493-19232.34224.63828.4960.12036134174300.213.363.57FF0.342129.3421307.0714337359118.461245553930.55659145942425163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 07:00:05FORECAST202493-19232.93625.4329.18359.94570747329700.23.363.56FF0.936130.9361306.9423875054818.3998785725590.58599343747144163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 03:00:04FORECAST202493-19231.96424.4428.20259.71168876598300.083.363.44FF-0.036000000000001126.9641306.769388702818.3177182611530.53770678348103163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-28 23:00:02FORECAST202493-19231.04623.03627.04159.7696414538200.113.333.44FF-0.954127.0461306.8122399245318.3380575739320.49157352348771162112124DRYL
2023-12-28 19:00:02FORECAST202493-19230.9221.50626.21359.9152858668100.183.333.51FF-1.08127.921306.9199040859318.3891937915220.48523643627294162112124DRYL
2023-12-28 15:00:03FORECAST202493-19231.29821.2926.29460.16739823250700.183.343.52FF-0.702126.2981307.1061780259718.4777797129510.50425248018684163112125DRYL
2023-12-28 11:00:03FORECAST202493-19230.88424.47627.6860.52809341884200.173.333.5FF-1.116124.8841307.3724713696918.6046696614450.4834264545192162112124DRYL
2023-12-28 07:00:09FORECAST202493-19231.62224.828.21159.8658453819300.033.423.45FF-0.378129.6221306.8833608509918.3718318309920.52054589484803163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-28 03:00:06FORECAST202493-19231.53224.06227.79760.35824358220700.013.523.53FF-0.468126.5321307.247105353718.5448956248670.51602222469116163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-27 23:00:04FORECAST202493-19231.56822.89227.2360.38884157196400.023.653.67FF-0.432119.5681307.2696936974218.555660852560.51783197293404163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-27 19:00:02FORECAST202493-19230.93823.93627.43760.335066344217003.643.64FF-1.062116.9381307.229994060518.5367420745740.4861415435615162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 15:00:03FORECAST202493-19231.76624.51228.13959.787645973479003.553.55FF-0.234121.7661306.8255514942118.3443774483530.52777802423681163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-27 11:00:02FORECAST202493-19233.24225.93429.58860.239284702176003.523.52FF1.242129.2421307.1592696975818.5030546962250.60096455012968163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-27 07:00:04FORECAST202493-19231.3720.96626.16860.483490230098003.483.48FF-0.63120.371307.3395550314918.588968974070.50787481037691163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-27 03:00:08FORECAST202493-19230.86622.8226.84360.92061376111400.033.573.6FF-1.134120.8661307.6619834547418.7429568630240.48252158936797162111122DRYL
2023-12-26 23:00:03FORECAST202493-19232.28826.88829.58863.07525600986300.043.493.53FF0.288118.2881309.2460569444619.5057742118120.55390048751175163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-26 19:00:03FORECAST202493-19230.43424.56627.563.53219457931400.153.563.71TF-1.566119.4341309.580881288619.6683527880630.46084251383417162112124DRYL
2023-12-26 15:00:04FORECAST202493-19229.62423.41426.51962.626610829153003.383.38FF-2.376113.6241308.9169313219519.3464204364360.42055582215422162111122DRYL
2023-12-26 11:00:05FORECAST202493-19233.49426.13229.81363.53000070909800.133.463.59FF1.494122.4941309.5792746459219.6675715377770.61318420090473163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 07:00:06FORECAST202493-19232.46826.31229.3963.23549430956200.113.453.56FF0.468119.4681309.3635167187419.5627549010540.56286004427379163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 03:00:08FORECAST202493-19232.64826.02429.33663.76142533753400.13.573.67FF0.648115.6481309.7487051163619.7500189346750.57178747997697163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 23:00:03FORECAST202493-19233.06225.71829.3967.82658525551200.183.333.51FF1.062118.0621312.7087050484221.2099636431070.59217448669238163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 19:00:04FORECAST202493-19234.62828.07631.35267.20188047549800.093.263.35FF2.628121.6281312.2558185070120.9841781930870.6666402666275163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-25 15:00:03FORECAST202493-19233.65627.5930.62366.20144956577400.063.073.13FF1.656120.6561311.5290466384720.6236744693110.62098169769338163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-25 11:00:03FORECAST202493-19234.08826.31230.270.22251602765700.163.093.25FF2.088120.0881314.4390131141122.0806986381260.64152806300167163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 07:00:06FORECAST202493-19234.1626.00630.08370.33063961871400.153.043.19FF2.16119.161314.516850427622.1201712614360.64491482428874163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 03:00:08FORECAST202493-19231.24424.9828.11273.07334839870400.393.413.8TF-0.756113.2441316.4841729435323.1265582321780.50153548609381163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 23:00:03FORECAST202493-1923223.93627.96866.90564539743600.272.843.11FF01101312.0408083472820.8772916728120.53950967356677163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 19:00:03FORECAST202493-19233.99826.8730.43466.03942638701100.242.783.02FF1.998115.9981311.4111696049420.5654150112180.63727894175099163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 15:00:03FORECAST202493-19234.5224.87229.69664.56630810180500.082.612.69FF2.52119.521310.3372004980720.037327302810.66167283345952163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-24 11:00:03FORECAST202493-19233.7126.00629.85866.23658194747300.212.793FF1.71114.711311.5546001681520.636311805150.62357013968868163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 07:00:04FORECAST202493-19231.89223.68427.78866.09606500395400.222.973.19FF-0.108114.8921311.452381521520.5857768546810.53409871515924163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 03:00:06FORECAST202493-19235.0628.07631.56865.88354012990200.192.93.09FF3.06119.061311.2977115789620.5093952731590.68621232906388163112125DRYL
2023-12-23 23:00:03FORECAST202493-19233.74624.72829.23765.40004412606100.113.583.69TF1.746112.7461310.9455248712220.3358510473790.62529269494078163112125DRYL
2023-12-23 19:00:03FORECAST202493-19232.86422.7327.79765.34117467035100.153.73.85TF0.864116.8641310.9026138145320.3147419947240.58245171789388163112125DRYL
2023-12-23 15:00:03FORECAST202493-19230.27225.77228.02264.5638329172003.473.47FF-1.728105.2721310.3353925940120.0364424357330.45273930176915162111122DRYL
2023-12-23 11:00:03FORECAST202493-19240.42428.25634.3462.99461021851500.032.973FF8.424111.4241309.1869229249719.477109694320.87737969502392165111123.5DRYL
2023-12-23 08:13:19FORECAST202493-19240.42428.50834.46662.85027555284600.032.993.02FF8.424116.4241309.081058404819.4258296889070.87737969502392165111123.5DRYL
2023-12-23 07:00:06FORECAST202493-19240.42428.90434.6646.061949166483200.032.852.88FF8.424121.4241264.266748215511.60197159407430.877379695023921651114214DRYL
2023-12-23 03:00:05FORECAST202493-19235.97825.71830.84810.56362633286400.163.543.7TF3.978104.9781268.059870462232.8316843063990.726057786161991641123218DRYL
2023-12-22 23:00:04FORECAST202493-19228.3124.92626.61859.1086121965740.0204724520.0404724522.462.500472452FF-3.6993.311306.3230888780118.1063326673470.35710805462844162111122DRYL
2023-12-22 19:00:07FORECAST202493-19228.36424.92626.64559.3046763245970.0334645850.0734645852.572.643464585FF-3.63694.3641306.4682588704718.1750008960760.35965210912138162111122DRYL
2023-12-22 15:00:04FORECAST202493-19232.57628.45430.51559.947343211780.0448819140.1148819142.72.814881914FF0.576107.5761306.943596366618.4004531180470.56822064727708163112125DRYL
2023-12-22 11:00:06FORECAST202493-19226.65425.3425.99760.9398322972800.012.732.74FF-5.346101.6541307.6761511014718.7497330499960.28262167310079162111122DRYL
2023-12-22 07:00:16FORECAST202493-19226.56424.29625.4361.98357858951700.012.922.93FF-5.43698.5641308.4445490636819.1184969473970.27879558134064162111122DRYL
2023-12-22 03:00:09FORECAST202493-19234.39434.3434.36761.417137483755002.992.99FF2.394116.3941308.0277922861318.9181852676550.65584180504543163111122.5DRYL