MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 31, 2023

[ Saturday, December 30, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, January 1, 2024 ]

DAY 92 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/01/2024 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.51°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.46°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.495
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 148

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.51 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.51 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 58 in
SWE DAY: 1
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 305.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.85 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 172

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-01 07:00:05OBSERVATION20249217234.5099223.4600828.98558.3873504166670.0399999999999640.509999999999963.514.02TF2.50992147.509921305.78842894172 17.8541761539820.495486944556316 2113126WETL
2024-01-01 03:00:03OBSERVATION20249217234.5099223.4600828.98558.3873504166670.0399999999999640.509999999999963.514.02TF2.50992147.509921305.78842894172 17.8541761539820.495486944556316 2113126WETL
2023-12-31 11:00:02FORECAST20249217227.98620.13824.0625800.473.513.98TF-4.014140.9861305.5008876848417.7190514857210.42682653682232162112124DRYL
2023-12-31 07:00:05FORECAST20249217228.20219.41823.8158.257757500.473.513.98TF-3.798141.2021305.6922599149717.8089455477530.42907615232506162112124DRYL
2023-12-31 03:00:06FORECAST20249217227.21219.41823.31558.257757500.473.513.98TF-4.788140.2121305.6922599149717.8089455477530.4187854394479162112124DRYL
2023-12-30 23:00:01FORECAST20249217228.72419.92224.3235900.323.513.83TF-3.276136.7241306.2426390071518.0683157014220.43452210282782162112124DRYL
2023-12-30 19:00:01FORECAST20249217230.30820.89425.6015900.323.513.83TF-1.692138.3081306.2426390071518.0683157014220.45111972239439162112124DRYL
2023-12-30 15:00:01FORECAST20249217229.01220.9324.9715900.323.513.83TF-2.988137.0121306.2426390071518.0683157014220.43753216059713162112124DRYL
2023-12-30 11:00:02FORECAST20249217229.35421.66825.51159.99926618731300.323.513.83TF-2.646137.3541306.9819664347918.4186927188260.44111129109202162112124DRYL
2023-12-30 07:00:04FORECAST20249217229.69622.40626.05160.22410391553400.293.513.8TF-2.304138.6961307.1480587520318.4977166077370.44469523740392162112124DRYL
2023-12-30 03:00:04FORECAST20249217229.4822.94626.21360.46240021346200.363.513.87TF-2.52138.481307.3239896860618.5815460595960.44243114739347162112124DRYL
2023-12-29 23:00:01FORECAST20249217230.41623.1826.79861.10250202135400.353.513.86TF-1.584132.4161307.7960413404718.807108238170.45225483443863162112124DRYL
2023-12-29 19:00:02FORECAST20249217232.28823.84628.06760.71639532532300.263.513.77TF0.288135.2881307.5113936390118.6709833432280.47198415082721162112124DRYL
2023-12-29 15:00:02FORECAST20249217232.28823.84628.06760.71639532532300.263.513.77TF0.288135.2881307.5113936390118.6709833432280.47198415082721162112124DRYL
2023-12-29 11:00:01FORECAST20249217232.2724.45828.36460.12341174174300.213.513.72TF0.27136.271307.0736870715618.4623177228590.4717940395476162112124DRYL
2023-12-29 07:00:04FORECAST20249217233.06225.39429.22859.95289067329700.23.513.71TF1.062137.0621306.9476960741218.4024016651520.48016440197043162112124DRYL
2023-12-29 03:00:04FORECAST20249217231.74825.14228.44559.71168876598300.083.513.59FF-0.252133.7481306.769388702818.3177182611530.46628378301539162111122DRYL
2023-12-28 23:00:02FORECAST20249217231.85624.51228.18459.7696414538200.113.483.59FF-0.144134.8561306.8122399245318.3380575739320.4674233411008162112124DRYL
2023-12-28 19:00:02FORECAST20249217231.51424.7128.11259.9152858668100.183.483.66TF-0.486135.5141306.9199040859318.3891937915220.46381570089821162112124DRYL
2023-12-28 15:00:03FORECAST20249217231.33423.8127.57260.1673982325070.0129921330.1929921333.483.672992133TF-0.666134.3341307.1061780259718.4777797129510.46191811827876162112124DRYL
2023-12-28 11:00:03FORECAST20249217231.92827.64429.78660.52809341884200.173.483.65TF-0.071999999999999132.9281307.3724713696918.6046696614450.46818319542372162112124DRYL
2023-12-28 07:00:09FORECAST20249217232.75626.9629.85859.8658453819300.033.573.6FF0.756136.7561306.8833608509918.3718318309920.47692915822983162111122DRYL
2023-12-28 03:00:05FORECAST20249217232.37825.28628.83260.35824358220700.013.673.68FF0.378134.3781307.247105353718.5448956248670.47293480210911162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 23:00:03FORECAST20249217230.43423.01826.72660.3888415719640.0129921330.0229921333.83.822992133TF-1.566127.4341307.2696936974218.555660852560.45244405798039162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 19:00:02FORECAST20249217229.73223.84626.78960.335066344217003.793.79TF-2.268124.7321307.229994060518.5367420745740.44507276326335162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 15:00:02FORECAST20249217231.98224.81828.459.787645973479003.73.7FF-0.018000000000001128.9821306.8255514942118.3443774483530.46875316239617162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 11:00:02FORECAST20249217234.17826.47430.32660.249715102176003.673.67FF2.178135.1781307.1669722525118.5067225670120.4919730097645162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 07:00:04FORECAST20249217232.23423.9928.11260.483490230098003.633.63FF0.234128.2341307.3395550314918.588968974070.47141383631056162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 03:00:07FORECAST20249217231.9124.96228.43660.9206137611140.0259842660.0259842663.723.745984266TF-0.09128.911307.6619834547418.7429568630240.46799322086681162111122DRYL
2023-12-26 23:00:03FORECAST20249217232.03626.27629.15663.07840480986300.043.643.68FF0.036000000000001125.0361309.2483655756119.5068935905670.46932319341631162111122DRYL
2023-12-26 19:00:03FORECAST20249217232.07225.01628.54463.53219457931400.153.713.86TF0.072000000000003128.0721309.580881288619.6683527880630.46970324910382162112124DRYL
2023-12-26 15:00:04FORECAST20249217230.05624.4427.24862.626610829153003.533.53FF-1.944123.0561308.9169313219519.3464204364360.44847269732405162111122DRYL
2023-12-26 11:00:04FORECAST20249217232.1825.91629.04863.55036950909800.133.613.74TF0.18128.181309.5941910379219.674825238330.47084358040778162112124DRYL
2023-12-26 07:00:06FORECAST20249217230.5624.65627.60863.24011910956200.113.63.71TF-1.44125.561309.3669061345919.5643999925080.45376892281983162112124DRYL
2023-12-26 03:00:08FORECAST20249217230.07424.827.43763.76713253753400.13.723.82TF-1.926122.0741309.7528822102419.7520530937840.44866169591613162112124DRYL
2023-12-25 23:00:03FORECAST20249217230.84826.628.72467.83465405551200.183.483.66TF-1.152123.8481312.7145499133921.21288331150.45679909431883162112124DRYL
2023-12-25 19:00:03FORECAST20249217232.88228.77830.8367.27784527549800.093.413.5FF0.882125.8821312.3109284040121.0116063190120.47826114546319162111122DRYL
2023-12-25 15:00:03FORECAST20249217231.42428.77830.10166.21414316577400.063.223.28FF-0.576126.4241311.538279588620.6282402462980.46286680396643162111122DRYL
2023-12-25 11:00:03FORECAST20249217231.87427.71629.79570.2712240276570.0259842660.1559842663.243.395984266FF-0.126124.8741314.4740802619222.0984785449770.46761329366228162112124DRYL
2023-12-25 07:00:05FORECAST20249217230.45227.71629.08470.3746244187140.0562992430.1462992433.193.336299243FF-1.548124.4521314.5485086190622.1362331555330.45263329232326162112124DRYL
2023-12-25 03:00:08FORECAST20249217230.14626.07828.11273.0733483987040.0519685320.4919685323.463.951968532TF-1.854121.1461316.4841729435323.1265582321780.44941780636878162113126DRYL
2023-12-24 23:00:03FORECAST20249217229.71424.29627.00566.9056453974360.082677210.272677212.993.26267721FF-2.286116.7141312.0408083472820.8772916728120.44488399408495162112124DRYL
2023-12-24 19:00:03FORECAST20249217231.44226.81629.12966.0831159870110.0996063530.2396063532.933.169606353FF-0.558121.4421311.442959960320.5811212463940.46305656662497162112124DRYL
2023-12-24 15:00:03FORECAST20249217230.8324.83627.83364.63203930180500.152.692.84FF-1.17123.831310.3852071840620.0608289094190.45660963313337162112124DRYL
2023-12-24 11:00:03FORECAST20249217233.24226.07829.6666.2707267474730.0429134090.2829134092.873.152913409FF1.242120.2421311.5794331955620.6485954774350.48206811078746162112124DRYL
2023-12-24 07:00:04FORECAST20249217231.51423.68427.59966.0960650039540.0425197080.3125197083.033.342519708FF-0.486121.5141311.452381521520.5857768546810.46381570089821162112124DRYL
2023-12-24 03:00:06FORECAST20249217233.31428.05830.68665.9631457299020.0377952960.1877952963.053.237795296FF1.314123.3141311.3556561943320.5379985233760.48282971125211162112124DRYL
2023-12-23 23:00:03FORECAST20249217232.66624.81828.74265.4361569260610.0456693160.2456693163.593.835669316TF0.666117.6661310.9718449971820.3488024488220.47597789569082162112124DRYL
2023-12-23 19:00:03FORECAST20249217231.94622.7327.33865.3557378703510.0413386050.2513386053.754.001338605TF-0.053999999999998122.9461310.9132298030320.3199635474310.46837317722631162112124WETL
2023-12-23 15:00:03FORECAST20249217232.10826.92429.51664.5638329172003.623.62FF0.108114.1081310.3353925940120.0364424357330.47008333239489162111122DRYL
2023-12-23 11:00:03FORECAST20249217234.08828.27431.18163.15972541851500.033.123.15FF2.088110.0881309.3079816679819.5358071919040.49102030341205162111122DRYL
2023-12-23 08:13:19FORECAST20249217235.02428.2231.62263.03418515284600.033.143.17FF3.024115.0241309.2159430010919.4911750033430.50092994392335163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-23 07:00:05FORECAST20249217234.7929.26432.0276.216929166483200.0333.03FF2.79119.791264.398056831711.64374399107850.49845234871258162111428DRYL
2023-12-23 03:00:05FORECAST20249217232.46825.8829.17410.69813913286400.163.693.85TF0.468108.4681268.172545219982.86894720037770.473885607572061621123212DRYL
2023-12-22 23:00:04FORECAST20249217233.0827.96830.52458.90471883925200.022.612.63FF1.08104.081306.1720452573418.0349782423220.48035475321319162111122DRYL
2023-12-22 19:00:06FORECAST20249217233.0827.39230.23658.97557880559200.042.722.76FF1.08105.081306.2245469884118.0597699031220.48035475321319162111122DRYL
2023-12-22 15:00:04FORECAST20249217233.72827.84230.78559.53656974786300.072.852.92FF1.728113.7281306.6398643313118.2562856702360.4872100445707162111122DRYL
2023-12-22 11:00:06FORECAST20249217234.62827.30230.96560.9398322972800.012.882.89FF2.628113.6281307.6761511014718.7497330499960.49673711971551162111122DRYL
2023-12-22 07:00:16FORECAST20249217232.97225.3429.15661.98357858951700.013.073.08FF0.972110.9721308.4445490636819.1184969473970.47921271447003162111122DRYL
2023-12-22 03:00:08FORECAST20249217241.10825.53833.32361.443016683755003.143.14FF9.108121.1081308.0468458784218.9273274906860.56505649997988163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-21 23:00:05FORECAST20249217226.09624.6225.35863.71588181685500.153.323.47FF-5.904108.0961309.7153696901519.7337878920410.40725161068408162112124DRYL
2023-12-21 19:00:04FORECAST20249217225.723.61224.65664.70483539059700.163.33.46FF-6.3105.71310.4383643485420.0868632640980.40317766460155162112124DRYL
2023-12-21 15:00:04FORECAST20249217227.93224.58426.25868.65422484704900.044.454.49TF-4.068105.9321313.3076057633921.509890812370.42626450161109162111122WETL
2023-12-21 11:00:04FORECAST20249217230.88428.29229.58864.50899265269500.033.713.74TF-1.116112.8841310.2953337014920.0168394019150.45717804610787162111122DRYL
2023-12-21 07:00:11FORECAST20249217226.31223.88225.09763.55065937658100.033.583.61FF-5.688104.3121309.5944033068619.674928469450.40947802876258162111122DRYL
2023-12-21 03:00:10FORECAST20249217222.44222.11822.2862.123178828739003.013.01FF-9.55890.4421308.5471673166819.1679308523150.37009590566901162111122DRYL