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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 2, 2024

[ Monday, January 1, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 3, 2024 ]

DAY 94 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/03/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.38°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.697
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 133

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.33 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.37 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.83 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.20 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 59 in
SWE DAY: 2
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 307.21 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.07 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -191

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-03 07:00:04OBSERVATION202494-19135.6399631.3800833.5100258.8171395833330.330000000000040.370000000000043.834.2TF3.63996132.639962307.21385155212 18.0694399886740.6966876930833216 3112125WETL
2024-01-03 03:00:04OBSERVATION202494-19135.6399631.3800833.5100258.8171395833330.330000000000040.370000000000043.834.2TF3.63996132.639962307.21385155212 18.0694399886740.6966876930833216 3112125WETL
2024-01-02 11:00:02FORECAST202494-19128.83224.90826.8759.4680472116450.4232285750.4632285753.834.293228575TF-3.168125.8322307.6940474594318.297964141060.34705063477748162112124WETL
2024-01-02 07:00:06FORECAST202494-19128.95825.91627.43759.3461202141860.3988191130.4388191133.834.268819113TF-3.042125.9582307.6041583323518.2551133587750.35327756238005162112124WETL
2024-01-02 03:00:04FORECAST202494-19128.32826.18627.25759.7102381833460.4940947550.5340947553.834.364094755TF-3.672125.3282307.8725171242218.3831413275930.32256743857739162113126WETL
2024-01-01 23:00:01FORECAST202494-19129.42626.11427.7759.6898345985710.4661419840.5061419843.834.336141984TF-2.574122.4262307.8574860298818.3759624210550.37673984670254162113126WETL
2024-01-01 19:00:01FORECAST202494-19129.80426.74428.27459.4759761039440.409449040.449449043.834.27944904TF-2.196122.8042307.6998919704118.3007514220180.39603300120383162112124WETL
2024-01-01 15:00:01FORECAST202494-19129.49826.72628.11259.7299150299950.4834648280.5234648283.834.353464828TF-2.502122.4982307.887012100818.390065071620.38039272043199162113126WETL
2024-01-01 11:00:02FORECAST202494-19130.63226.54628.58959.6740620560210.4811026220.5211026223.834.351102622TF-1.368123.6322307.8458660390718.3704133137050.43913092724129162113126WETL
2024-01-01 07:00:06FORECAST202494-19130.9228.38229.65159.6880690396520.3877954850.4277954853.834.257795485TF-1.08123.922307.8561853256118.3753412439990.45432018775639162112124WETL
2024-01-01 03:00:04FORECAST202494-19132.23428.25630.24558.9240430510790.1562992970.1962992973.834.026299297TF0.234125.2342307.2927722443118.1069325410090.52413501554344163112125WETL
2023-12-31 23:00:02FORECAST202494-19131.9126.90629.40858.3238598217950.0885827250.0885827253.833.918582725TF-0.09119.912306.8494137234117.8966421924040.50690643622717163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-31 19:00:01FORECAST202494-19132.7226.97829.84958.3380941396180.0921260340.0921260343.833.922126034TF0.72120.722306.8599365158117.9016238641370.54988351868667163112125DRYL
2023-12-31 15:00:02FORECAST202494-19132.25225.12428.68857.9917344003.833.83TF0.252120.2522306.6037802711917.7804849915230.52509113467236163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-31 11:00:03FORECAST202494-19132.2727.42829.84958.0862348291440.0259842660.0259842663.833.855984266TF0.27120.272306.673692029517.8135200911460.52604710932422163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-31 07:00:05FORECAST202494-19132.57626.76229.66958.2449655003.833.83TF0.576120.5762306.7910837931217.8690360912380.54227126578696163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-31 03:00:06FORECAST202494-19132.30628.09430.258.2551991003.833.83TF0.306118.3062306.7986505889717.8726164736720.52795860324338163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-30 23:00:02FORECAST202494-19131.85626.3329.09359003.683.68FF-0.144114.8562307.3488338775518.1335811987750.50403288333709163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-30 19:00:02FORECAST202494-19133.47627.03230.25458.9634936003.683.68FF1.476118.4762307.321890906618.1207723476110.58948401436493163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-30 15:00:01FORECAST202494-19132.48625.93429.2158.9953752003.683.68FF0.486115.4862307.3454207552818.131958413460.53750554073987163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-30 11:00:02FORECAST202494-19131.98226.4229.20159.999266187313003.683.68FF-0.018000000000001114.9822308.0853571921518.4848953545860.51073725688884163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-30 07:00:05FORECAST202494-19131.8225.8828.8560.223021515534003.653.65FF-0.18116.822308.2500232238318.5637477807730.50211705594767163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-30 03:00:04FORECAST202494-19131.42426.65429.03960.462400213462003.723.72FF-0.576115.4242308.4260832213518.648181280.4810494507217162111122DRYL
2023-12-29 23:00:02FORECAST202494-19132.64826.67229.6661.3071150461780.0519685320.0519685323.713.761968532TF0.648110.6482309.0465055961818.9467496732040.54607950808266163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-29 19:00:03FORECAST202494-19133.40427.42830.41661.3979479351860.1767717490.1767717493.623.796771749TF1.404114.4042309.1131408983718.978912530960.58574503128839163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 15:00:02FORECAST202494-19133.40427.42830.41661.3979479351860.1767717490.1767717493.623.796771749TF1.404114.4042309.1131408983718.978912530960.58574503128839163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 11:00:02FORECAST202494-19131.87425.14228.50860.120361341743003.573.57FF-0.126113.8742308.1744851626618.5275614042850.5049907649152163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-29 07:00:05FORECAST202494-19132.6327.1429.88559.935277073297003.563.56FF0.63116.632308.0382491091218.4623578095290.54512783069699163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-29 03:00:05FORECAST202494-19132.79226.65429.72359.705095965983003.443.44FF0.792112.7922307.8687289832118.3813320088680.55368295183772163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-28 23:00:02FORECAST202494-19129.31824.67426.99659.76964145382003.443.44FF-2.682109.3182307.9162744187518.4040453198050.37128125179051162111122DRYL
2023-12-28 19:00:02FORECAST202494-19128.14824.04426.09659.91528586681003.513.51FF-3.852109.1482308.023530232718.4553178675960.31399974114882162111122DRYL
2023-12-28 15:00:03FORECAST202494-19127.64421.27224.45860.16739823250700.013.513.52FF-4.356106.6442308.2090976749518.5441395186910.29054861338135162111122DRYL
2023-12-28 11:00:03FORECAST202494-19128.97624.11626.54660.7585722113960.0425197080.0425197083.53.542519708FF-3.024106.9762308.6437658657118.7527545359490.35417038400576162111122DRYL
2023-12-28 07:00:10FORECAST202494-19130.2925.05227.67160.0629438436140.0389763990.0389763993.453.488976399FF-1.71113.292308.1322283832818.5073287297930.421211173018162111122DRYL
2023-12-28 03:00:06FORECAST202494-19129.31823.73826.52860.358243582207003.533.53FF-2.682109.3182308.3494904950518.611433655750.37128125179051162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 23:00:04FORECAST202494-19130.14625.59227.86960.38884157196400.013.663.67FF-1.854103.1462308.3719931659518.6222274405290.41371234861096162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 19:00:03FORECAST202494-19129.76825.05227.4160.335066344217003.643.64FF-2.23299.7682308.3324441013818.6032584709310.39418371794858162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 15:00:03FORECAST202494-19131.26226.27628.76959.787645973479003.553.55FF-0.738106.2622307.9295355004618.4103820532790.47244278188585162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 11:00:03FORECAST202494-19133.20626.22229.71460.227771902176003.523.52FF1.206115.2062308.2535181141718.5654225770240.57542367625954163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-27 07:00:04FORECAST202494-19128.41821.77625.09760.483490230098003.483.48FF-3.582101.4182308.4415895307118.6556238669370.3268872314507162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 03:00:08FORECAST202494-19129.321.52425.41260.92061376111400.033.573.6FF-2.7103.32308.7627950509318.81001898110.37037396321682162111122DRYL
2023-12-26 23:00:03FORECAST202494-19132.46827.08629.77763.070237609863003.533.53FF0.468103.4682310.3371950201319.5730406290980.53655172714101163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-26 19:00:04FORECAST202494-19131.42427.17629.363.6982805568030.0311023790.0311023793.713.741102379TF-0.576103.4242310.7955578763919.7971426414180.4810494507217162111122DRYL
2023-12-26 15:00:04FORECAST202494-19129.26425.08827.17662.9823874123450.0594488510.0594488513.383.439448851FF-2.73696.2642310.2730212395419.5417356273080.36856155144577162111122DRYL
2023-12-26 11:00:05FORECAST202494-19131.1925.64628.41863.9360310377080.0724409840.0724409843.593.662440984FF-0.81106.192310.9688839532319.8821162161950.46862148224331162111122DRYL
2023-12-26 07:00:06FORECAST202494-19131.53226.83429.18363.4836618181520.0456693160.0456693163.563.605669316FF-0.468103.5322310.6390055066419.7205015731110.48679239035481162111122DRYL
2023-12-26 03:00:08FORECAST202494-19130.99225.53828.26563.761425337534003.673.67FF-1.00899.9922310.8416022173119.8197036115780.45812885429713162111122DRYL
2023-12-25 23:00:04FORECAST202494-19132.57626.11429.34567.821960455512003.513.51FF0.576103.5762313.7870380406921.2816520854480.54227126578696163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-25 19:00:04FORECAST202494-19134.93427.19431.06467.138904475498003.353.35FF2.934109.9342313.2936849434921.0341947861980.6630194939527163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-25 15:00:03FORECAST202494-19131.83826.63629.23766.201449565774003.133.13FF-0.162105.8382312.6151912794320.695578818980.50307497850704163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-25 11:00:03FORECAST202494-19132.77427.10429.93970.21444722765700.033.223.25FF0.774105.7742315.5083333779722.1532432238530.55273354154816163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-25 07:00:06FORECAST202494-19133.00827.1430.07470.31952041871400.063.133.19FF1.008105.0082315.5836896773522.1916937100790.56505034856578163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-25 03:00:08FORECAST202494-19129.44424.1726.80773.07334839870400.053.753.8TF-2.55695.4442317.5515238352723.2045531357540.37765204590945162111122DRYL
2023-12-24 23:00:03FORECAST202494-19130.77622.35226.56466.90564539743600.083.033.11FF-1.22493.7762313.1250119839920.9498310168690.44671578650857162111122DRYL
2023-12-24 19:00:03FORECAST202494-19133.20624.92629.06666.02161598701100.12.923.02FF1.206102.2062312.4848498913920.6307547612880.57542367625954163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 15:00:03FORECAST202494-19139.63227.9533.79164.269041701805002.692.69FF7.632112.6322311.2114811873120.0012636625080.85259570192918165111123.5DRYL
2023-12-24 11:00:03FORECAST202494-19137.83228.11232.97266.04794914747300.042.963FF5.832105.8322312.5039395956420.6402443107980.79027300808056164111123DRYL
2023-12-24 07:00:04FORECAST202494-19137.36426.72632.04565.92101140395400.043.153.19FF5.364105.3642312.4119068286820.5945088727850.77183954621547164111123DRYL
2023-12-24 03:00:06FORECAST202494-19141.2730.16435.71765.39626332990200.043.053.09FF9.27113.272312.0311374381620.4056704310350.89731740274232165111123.5DRYL
2023-12-23 23:00:03FORECAST202494-19131.127.84229.47165.40004412606100.053.643.69FF-0.997.12312.033882687220.4070296965690.46384896084914162111122DRYL
2023-12-23 19:00:03FORECAST202494-19128.07624.33226.20465.34117467035100.043.813.85TF-3.92498.0762311.991134383120.3858672073270.31060018010791162111122DRYL
2023-12-23 15:00:03FORECAST202494-19125.95219.88622.91964.5638329172003.473.47FF-6.04883.9522311.4260645130720.1068603952830.21842126429447161111121.5DRYL
2023-12-23 11:00:03FORECAST202494-19132.79231.1931.99162.9820150185150033FF0.79296.7922310.2727491787119.5416029486090.55368295183772163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-23 08:13:19FORECAST202494-19132.79231.1931.99162.837680352846003.023.02FF0.792101.7922310.1672828063419.4901925728960.55368295183772163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-23 07:00:06FORECAST202494-19132.79231.1931.9916.0493539664832002.882.88FF0.792106.7922265.521515569941.60623363339960.553682951837721631114210DRYL
2023-12-23 03:00:05FORECAST202494-19130.86630.18230.52410.563626332864003.73.7FF-1.13488.8662269.310884522372.84489955146750.45146642208962162111326DRYL