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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 16, 2024

[ Sunday, September 15, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 17, 2024 ]

DAY 352 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/17/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.05°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.17°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.460
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 595

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.21 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.83 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.04 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 259
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 66

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-09-17 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243526655.2999243.0500249.17497000.210.831.04FF23.29992595.29992259470.791672921 00.4604072580259916 23425245DRYM
2024-09-17 00:00:01FORECAST20243526656.01240.11848.065000.210.831.04FF24.012596.012260471.2737680031200.484506541714681623425245DRYM
2024-09-16 12:00:01FORECAST20243526655.88639.16447.525000.210.831.04FF23.886595.886260471.2737680031200.480235604458771623425245DRYM
2024-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20243526656.58839.75848.173000.210.831.04FF24.588596.588260471.2737680031200.504046038107751633425250DRYMH
2024-09-16 04:00:03FORECAST20243526656.46238.73247.597000.210.831.04FF24.462596.462260471.2737680031200.499770975061371633425250DRYMH
2024-09-16 00:00:01FORECAST20243526656.85838.49847.678000.140.830.97FF24.858598.858259470.79167292100.513204693508081633425250DRYMH
2024-09-15 20:00:02FORECAST20243526656.22838.35447.291000.140.830.97FF24.228600.228259470.79167292100.491832014144471623525250DRYMH
2024-09-15 16:00:01FORECAST20243526658.15439.07448.614000.140.830.97FF26.154602.154259470.79167292100.556984726883911633525255DRYH
2024-09-15 12:00:01FORECAST20243526657.66837.7647.714000.140.830.97FF25.668601.668259470.79167292100.540619660810981633525255DRYH
2024-09-15 08:00:02FORECAST20243526657.12840.69448.911000.150.830.98FF25.128602.128259470.79167292100.522356389447241633525255DRYH
2024-09-15 04:00:03FORECAST20243526657.16440.20848.686000.110.830.94FF25.164601.164259470.79167292100.523575830847531633525255DRYH
2024-09-15 00:00:01FORECAST20243526657.14640.04648.596000.140.830.97FF25.146605.146259470.79167292100.522966137028971633525255DRYH
2024-09-14 20:00:01FORECAST20243526656.89440.02848.461000.270.831.1FF24.894601.894259470.79167292100.514425426984331633525255DRYH
2024-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20243526655.16639.30847.237000.260.831.09FF23.166599.166259470.79167292100.455888454432211623525250DRYMH
2024-09-14 12:00:02FORECAST20243526654.89639.12847.012000.260.831.09FF22.896598.896259470.79167292100.44679588428611623425245DRYM
2024-09-14 08:00:01FORECAST20243526655.2239.18247.201000.250.831.08FF23.22600.22259470.79167292100.457709899586831623525250DRYMH
2024-09-14 04:00:03FORECAST20243526655.3139.57847.444000.20.831.03FF23.31599.31259470.79167292100.460747597421391623525250DRYMH
2024-09-14 00:00:02FORECAST20243526655.90438.78647.345000.130.810.94FF23.904600.904259470.79167292100.480845610920691623525250DRYMH
2024-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20243526655.79638.7547.273000.120.840.96FF23.796599.796259470.79167292100.47718629488181623525250DRYMH
2024-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20243526656.82239.9248.371000.150.840.99FF24.822601.822259470.79167292100.511983836291931633525255DRYH
2024-09-13 12:00:02FORECAST20243526655.4939.16447.327000.170.841.01FF23.49600.49259470.79167292100.466829693319821623525250DRYMH
2024-09-13 08:00:02FORECAST20243526655.63438.98447.309000.180.851.03FF23.634601.634259470.79167292100.471701021803661623525250DRYMH
2024-09-13 04:00:04FORECAST20243526655.438.67847.039000.270.861.13FF23.4597.4259470.79167292100.463787587496741623425245DRYM
2024-09-13 00:00:02FORECAST20243526655.25639.32647.291000.150.640.79FF23.256599.256259470.79167292100.458924692372681623525250DRYMH
2024-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20243526655.47239.70447.588000.130.650.78FF23.472601.472259470.79167292100.466221111379851623525250DRYMH
2024-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20243526654.06838.6646.364000.090.650.74FF22.068601.068259470.79167292100.4191058976451623515225DRYL
2024-09-12 12:00:02FORECAST20243526653.16837.50845.338000.120.640.76FF21.168597.168259470.79167292100.389460414499171623425245DRYM
2024-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20243526652.8837.18445.032000.110.620.73FF20.88597.88259470.79167292100.380099329066711623425245DRYM
2024-09-12 04:00:03FORECAST20243526652.28636.78844.537000.130.650.78FF20.286594.286259470.79167292100.361017802817691623425245DRYM
2024-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20243526651.20636.73443.97000.170.590.76FF19.206594.206259470.79167292100.327222860506511623425245DRYM
2024-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20243526652.12436.12244.123000.190.510.7FF20.124598.124259470.79167292100.355870931486921623425245DRYM
2024-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20243526651.72835.49243.61000.160.540.7FF19.728595.728259470.79167292100.343401355004991623425245DRYM
2024-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20243526652.19637.25644.726000.160.540.7FF20.196597.196259470.79167292100.358155254703891623425245DRYM
2024-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20243526652.39437.88645.14000.140.630.77FF20.394597.394259470.79167292100.364463145880161623425245DRYM
2024-09-11 04:00:05FORECAST20243526653.90638.69646.301000.130.670.8FF21.906606.906259470.79167292100.413730414235571623525250DRYMH
2024-09-11 00:00:02FORECAST20243526649.58639.23644.411000.060.870.93FF17.586600.586259470.79167292100.279145058294991623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20243526649.71239.12844.42000.010.740.75FF17.712600.712259470.79167292100.282758635323541623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20243526646.86836.06841.46800.0015748040.0215748040.840.861574804FF14.868594.868259470.79167292100.207079672982221613415220DRYL
2024-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20243526651.67439.52445.59900.043307110.043307110.780.82330711FF19.674605.674259470.79167292100.34171371897411623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20243526652.8840.0146.44500.043307110.043307110.710.75330711FF20.88603.88259470.79167292100.380099329066711623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 04:00:04FORECAST20243526650.73838.67844.70800.0519685320.0519685320.740.791968532FF18.738602.738259470.79167292100.312987672440841623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20243526647.06636.8641.96300.03937010.04937010.620.6693701FF15.066586.066259470.79167292100.211927710733981613415220DRYL
2024-09-09 20:00:03FORECAST20243526644.58235.90640.24400.0405512030.0505512030.570.620551203FF12.582584.582259470.79167292100.155978112291481613415220DRYL
2024-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20243526648.27236.75242.51200.0295275750.0295275750.590.619527575FF16.272589.272259470.79167292100.242853164891591613415220DRYL
2024-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20243526648.77636.98642.88100.1429134630.1629134630.490.652913463FF16.776592.776259470.79167292100.256465145554221623425245DRYM
2024-09-09 08:00:03FORECAST20243526649.33438.42643.8800.1433071640.1533071640.450.603307164FF17.334591.334259470.79167292100.271985891456151623425245DRYM
2024-09-09 04:00:04FORECAST20243526647.19236.19441.69300.1405512570.1505512570.580.730551257FF15.192587.192259470.79167292100.215047026108671613425240DRYM
2024-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20243526648.23635.99642.116000.020.490.51FF16.236576.236259470.79167292100.241896043472011613415220DRYL
2024-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20243526647.19233.83640.514000.020.540.56FF15.192571.192259470.79167292100.215047026108671613415220DRYL
2024-09-08 16:00:03FORECAST20243526649.60435.56442.58400.0185039470.0485039470.330.378503947FF17.604584.604259470.79167292100.279659907883721623415222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 12:00:03FORECAST20243526648.27235.34841.8100.0346456880.0846456880.140.224645688FF16.272583.272259470.79167292100.242853164891591613415220DRYL
2024-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20243526648.97435.97842.47600.0342519870.0642519870.110.174251987FF16.974587.974259470.79167292100.261919295313481623415222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 04:00:05FORECAST20243526648.8335.72642.27800.0342519870.0642519870.110.174251987FF16.83580.83259470.79167292100.257946758505641623415222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 00:00:04FORECAST20243526646.56235.76241.16200.066929170.146929170.210.35692917FF14.562570.562259470.79167292100.199717424540291613425240DRYM
2024-09-07 20:00:03FORECAST20243526644.52834.62839.57800.1673229250.2773229250.190.467322925FF12.528579.528259470.79167292100.154880881044941613425240DRYM
2024-09-07 16:00:03FORECAST20243526644.72635.00639.86600.169291430.269291430.190.45929143FF12.726577.726259470.79167292100.158928984238271613425240DRYM
2024-09-07 12:00:03FORECAST20243526658.2837.0447.6600.047244120.137244120.270.40724412FF26.28597.28259470.79167292100.561212844898031633425250DRYMH
2024-09-07 08:00:03FORECAST20243526652.46638.1245.29300.0476378210.1376378210.280.417637821FF20.466590.466259470.79167292100.366766157010851623425245DRYM
2024-09-07 04:00:05FORECAST20243526652.28639.50645.89600.0657480670.1457480670.260.405748067FF20.286599.286259470.79167292100.361017802817691623525250DRYMH
2024-09-07 00:00:03FORECAST20243526641.91839.57840.7480000.490.49FF9.918586.918259470.79167292100.107866673410621613415220DRYL
2024-09-06 20:00:03FORECAST20243526647.94842.3545.1490000.490.49FF15.948597.948259470.79167292100.234313137457481613415220DRYL
2024-09-06 16:00:03FORECAST20243526649.0145.7747.390000.140.14FF17.01627.01259470.79167292100.262917302126721623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 12:00:03FORECAST20243526646.16643.8845.0230000.080.08FF14.166617.166259470.79167292100.190426649857921613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-06 08:00:04FORECAST20243526644.38441.43242.9080000.080.08FF12.384607.384259470.79167292100.151979847132721613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-06 04:00:06FORECAST20243526643.98842.843.3940000.10.1FF11.988608.988259470.79167292100.144188702094431613515222.5DRYL