MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 15, 2024

[ Saturday, September 14, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, September 16, 2024 ]

DAY 351 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/16/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.39°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.23°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.137
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 611

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.80 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.04 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 258
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 65

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-09-16 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243516544.3899436.0600840.2250100.100000000000020.240000000000020.81.04FF12.38994611.38994258470.30774239242 00.137042390816616 13525245DRYM
2024-09-16 00:00:01FORECAST20243516546.11233.24239.67700.0251968640.1651968640.80.965196864FF14.112613.112259470.79167292100.171929755836651613525245DRYM
2024-09-15 12:00:01FORECAST20243516547.94833.27840.61300.0318897810.1718897810.80.971889781FF15.948614.948259470.79167292100.214837066106671613525245DRYM
2024-09-15 08:00:01FORECAST20243516548.75834.35841.55800.0385826980.1785826980.80.978582698FF16.758615.758259470.79167292100.235584565507321613525245DRYM
2024-09-15 04:00:03FORECAST20243516548.39833.42240.9100.0027559070.1427559070.80.942755907FF16.398615.398259470.79167292100.226230013182991613525245DRYM
2024-09-15 00:00:01FORECAST2024351655032.55841.27900.007874020.167874020.80.96787402FF18619258470.3077423924200.269433889675061623525250DRYMH
2024-09-14 20:00:01FORECAST20243516549.08232.940.99100.0208661530.3008661530.81.100866153FF17.082616.082258470.3077423924200.244182623787551613525245DRYM
2024-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20243516547.67833.18840.43300.0149606380.2949606380.81.094960638FF15.678614.678258470.3077423924200.208164066718791613525245DRYM
2024-09-14 12:00:02FORECAST20243516547.73232.88240.30700.0102362260.2902362260.81.090236226FF15.732614.732258470.3077423924200.209488812459211613525245DRYM
2024-09-14 08:00:01FORECAST20243516548.12833.27840.70300.0094488240.2794488240.81.079448824FF16.128616.128258470.3077423924200.219353810944491613525245DRYM
2024-09-14 04:00:03FORECAST20243516547.8433.02640.43300.0114173290.2314173290.81.031417329FF15.84614.84258470.3077423924200.212153105280631613525245DRYM
2024-09-14 00:00:02FORECAST20243516548.07433.5340.80200.0208661530.1408661530.80.940866153FF16.074616.074258470.3077423924200.217993099650061613525245DRYM
2024-09-13 20:00:01FORECAST20243516548.1133.33240.72100.0145669370.1645669370.80.964566937FF16.11615.11258470.3077423924200.21889970006681613525245DRYM
2024-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20243516548.233.78240.99100.0279527710.1879527710.80.987952771FF16.2616.2258470.3077423924200.221175648921971613525245DRYM
2024-09-13 12:00:01FORECAST20243516548.00233.90840.95500.0496063260.2096063260.81.009606326FF16.002616.002258470.3077423924200.2161863959311613525245DRYM
2024-09-13 08:00:02FORECAST20243516549.0134.41241.71100.035433090.225433090.81.02543309FF17.01617.01258470.3077423924200.242257465162081613525245DRYM
2024-09-13 04:00:04FORECAST20243516546.27433.20639.7400.0488189240.3288189240.81.128818924FF14.274613.274258470.3077423924200.175480190567681613525245DRYM
2024-09-13 00:00:02FORECAST20243516547.44433.60240.52300.0098425250.1598425250.630.789842525FF15.444615.444258470.3077423924200.202480782626671613525245DRYM
2024-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20243516547.10234.64640.87400.0106299270.1506299270.630.780629927FF15.102617.102258470.3077423924200.194343018193021613525245DRYM
2024-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20243516547.1234.71840.91900.0145669370.1145669370.630.744566937FF15.12618.12258470.3077423924200.194766303449791613525245DRYM
2024-09-12 12:00:01FORECAST20243516547.06633.94440.50500.0181102460.1281102460.630.758110246FF15.066615.066258470.3077423924200.19349812605871613525245DRYM
2024-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20243516547.64233.20640.42400.0051181130.1051181130.620.725118113FF15.642615.642258470.3077423924200.207283650480651613525245DRYM
2024-09-12 04:00:03FORECAST20243516547.24632.55839.90200.0114173290.1314173290.650.781417329FF15.246613.246258470.3077423924200.197744940694251613525245DRYM
2024-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20243516546.61632.84639.73100.0255905650.1655905650.590.755590565FF14.616613.616258470.3077423924200.183126534892221613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20243516547.71434.80841.26100.0165354420.1865354420.510.696535442FF15.714616.714258470.3077423924200.20904668150091613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 16:00:01FORECAST20243516546.68833.38640.03700.0169291430.1569291430.540.696929143FF14.688614.688258470.3077423924200.184762329475861613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20243516546.25634.0740.16300.0377952960.1577952960.540.697795296FF14.256616.256258470.3077423924200.175083423967351613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20243516546.18434.41240.29800.0377952960.1377952960.630.767795296FF14.184616.184258470.3077423924200.173502040702241613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 04:00:04FORECAST20243516548.68636.42842.55700.0429134090.1329134090.670.802913409FF16.686623.686258470.3077423924200.233696785588281613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 00:00:02FORECAST20243516549.08237.32843.20500.0248031630.0648031630.870.934803163FF17.082622.082258470.3077423924200.244182623787551613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20243516549.74837.47243.6100.0031496080.0131496080.740.753149608FF17.748621.748258470.3077423924200.262374200672831623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20243516548.43437.88643.1600.0035433090.0235433090.840.863543309FF16.434619.434258470.3077423924200.22715593707621613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20243516550.97238.51644.7440000.780.78FF18.972624.972258470.3077423924200.297524010066651623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20243516550.10838.08444.0960000.710.71FF18.108622.108258470.3077423924200.272488318208211623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 04:00:04FORECAST20243516548.8337.7643.29500.0047244120.0047244120.740.744724412FF16.83622.83258470.3077423924200.237480713587511613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20243516546.9437.18442.06200.0051181130.0051181130.620.625118113FF14.94609.94258470.3077423924200.190558652725751613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20243516547.22837.8542.53900.0051181130.0051181130.570.575118113FF15.228611.228258470.3077423924200.197317747204461613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20243516547.53437.77842.65600.0003937010.0003937010.590.590393701FF15.534611.534258470.3077423924200.204655620740441613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20243516547.24637.5842.41300.0027559070.0227559070.490.512755907FF15.246615.246258470.3077423924200.197744940694251613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20243516547.64237.79642.71900.0027559070.0127559070.450.462755907FF15.642612.642258470.3077423924200.207283650480651613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-09 04:00:04FORECAST20243516547.73238.1242.92600.0027559070.0127559070.580.592755907FF15.732610.732258470.3077423924200.209488812459211613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20243516548.5635.34841.954000.020.490.51FF16.56598.56258470.3077423924200.230413408050971613415220DRYL
2024-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20243516546.29234.28640.289000.020.540.56FF14.292595.292258470.3077423924200.175877525243241613415220DRYL
2024-09-08 16:00:03FORECAST20243516546.36435.99641.1800.0066929170.0266929170.330.356692917FF14.364606.364258470.3077423924200.177472542171831613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 12:00:03FORECAST20243516545.10435.43840.27100.0271653690.0571653690.130.187165369FF13.104606.104258470.3077423924200.150875495916061613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20243516547.80435.74441.77400.0283464720.0383464720.10.138346472FF15.804609.804258470.3077423924200.211262818305781613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 04:00:04FORECAST20243516547.335.90641.60300.0283464720.0383464720.10.138346472FF15.3603.3258470.3077423924200.199029863398881613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20243516545.48236.37440.92800.0814961070.0814961070.210.291496107FF13.482595.482258470.3077423924200.158561162289591613415220DRYL
2024-09-07 20:00:03FORECAST20243516544.00635.49239.74900.1051181670.1051181670.190.295118167FF12.006606.006258470.3077423924200.129973252279811613525245DRYM
2024-09-07 16:00:02FORECAST20243516544.65436.2340.44200.1003937550.1003937550.190.290393755FF12.654603.654258470.3077423924200.1420536594031613525245DRYM
2024-09-07 12:00:03FORECAST20243516547.3937.92242.65600.0897638280.0997638280.260.359763828FF15.39610.39258470.3077423924200.201182524757681613525245DRYM
2024-09-07 08:00:03FORECAST20243516550.01839.3844.69900.0897638280.0997638280.270.369763828FF18.018609.018258470.3077423924200.269941768350061623525250DRYMH
2024-09-07 04:00:04FORECAST20243516551.06238.2144.63600.0846457150.0946457150.250.344645715FF19.062618.062258470.3077423924200.300191099678281623525250DRYMH
2024-09-07 00:00:03FORECAST20243516551.85436.28444.06900.0003937010.0203937010.470.490393701FF19.854615.854258470.3077423924200.324111683780191623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 20:00:03FORECAST20243516553.58239.59646.5890000.490.49FF21.582620.582258470.3077423924200.378773568702161623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 16:00:03FORECAST20243516562.1544.18653.1680000.140.14FF30.15649.15258470.3077423924200.663771538213071633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-06 12:00:03FORECAST20243516561.80841.3651.5840000.080.08FF29.808641.808258470.3077423924200.653054424790361633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-06 08:00:03FORECAST20243516559.10839.34449.2260000.080.08FF27.108634.108258470.3077423924200.564768427347981633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-06 04:00:05FORECAST20243516556.98437.74247.3630000.10.1FF24.984635.984258470.3077423924200.492714609487191623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 00:00:03FORECAST20243516544.92437.45441.1890000.10.1FF12.924629.924258470.3077423924200.147304058007481613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-05 20:00:03FORECAST20243516544.20435.72639.9650000.160.16FF12.204623.204258470.3077423924200.133586784947931613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20243516544.20435.72639.9650000.160.16FF12.204630.204258470.3077423924200.133586784947931613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20243516540.51436.30238.4080000.240.24FF8.514641.514258470.3077423924200.0770566690316041613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-05 08:00:04FORECAST20243516543.1639.05641.1080000.220.22FF11.16643.16258470.3077423924200.115296225490261613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-05 04:00:04FORECAST20243516541.6340.08240.856000.050.140.19FF9.63633.63258470.3077423924200.0918133932791061613515222.5DRYL