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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 14, 2024

[ Friday, September 13, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 15, 2024 ]

DAY 350 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/12/2024 12:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.82°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.147
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 624

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.18 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.56 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.74 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 257
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 64

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-09-12 12:00:01FORECAST20243506445.82437.90441.86400.0988189510.1788189510.560.738818951FF13.824623.824257469.8219694294300.147446074613851613525245DRYM
2024-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20243506446.00437.14841.57600.1003937550.1603937550.560.720393755FF14.004624.004257469.8219694294300.151061905160491613525245DRYM
2024-09-12 04:00:03FORECAST20243506445.35636.71641.03600.122047310.212047310.560.77204731FF13.356622.356257469.8219694294300.138317489482721613525245DRYM
2024-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20243506445.78837.54441.66600.1413386590.2513386590.480.731338659FF13.788622.788257469.8219694294300.146729906551881613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20243506446.92237.3142.11600.1685040280.2385040280.440.678504028FF14.922624.922257469.8219694294300.17041089115961613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 16:00:01FORECAST20243506446.99438.26442.62900.1370079480.2370079480.440.677007948FF14.994623.994257469.8219694294300.171992658255911613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20243506448.4739.3843.92500.1188977020.2188977020.440.658897702FF16.47626.47257469.8219694294300.206457601589531613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 08:00:01FORECAST20243506447.98439.88443.93400.0952756420.1952756420.530.725275642FF15.984625.984257469.8219694294300.194683019298811613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 04:00:04FORECAST20243506450.39640.15445.27500.0917323330.2017323330.560.761732333FF18.396631.396257469.8219694294300.257077593988821623525250DRYMH
2024-09-11 00:00:02FORECAST20243506449.6440.26244.95100.0350393890.1550393890.750.905039389FF17.64628.64257469.8219694294300.236474098979071613525245DRYM
2024-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20243506449.69440.11844.90600.0145669370.0845669370.670.754566937FF17.694627.694257469.8219694294300.237915043195551613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20243506448.90240.2844.59100.0161417410.0861417410.770.856141741FF16.902626.902257469.8219694294300.21726913688951613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20243506452.26841.70246.985000.070.710.78FF20.268630.268257469.8219694294300.311826925362831623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20243506451.2641.48646.373000.070.640.71FF19.26628.26257469.8219694294300.281717415482061623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 04:00:04FORECAST20243506450.77441.34246.058000.040.70.74FF18.774629.774257469.8219694294300.267718320632721623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20243506448.70439.61444.15900.0011811030.0711811030.550.621181103FF16.704618.704257469.8219694294300.212273859388321613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20243506448.88439.5644.22200.0011811030.0611811030.510.571181103FF16.884619.884257469.8219694294300.216812239563411613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20243506449.6438.80444.22200.0011811030.0711811030.520.591181103FF17.64619.64257469.8219694294300.236474098979071613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20243506450.66639.77645.22100.0153543390.0953543390.410.505354339FF18.666623.666257469.8219694294300.264655642442191623525250DRYMH
2024-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20243506450.2739.84845.05900.0145669370.0845669370.380.464566937FF18.27621.27257469.8219694294300.253580136177171623515225DRYL
2024-09-09 04:00:04FORECAST20243506448.81239.244.00600.0141732360.0841732360.510.594173236FF16.812618.812257469.8219694294300.214990204328251613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20243506445.42837.2241.32400.0192913490.0192913490.490.509291349FF13.428606.428257469.8219694294300.139696310528311613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20243506444.634.95239.77600.0188976480.0188976480.540.558897648FF12.6604.6257469.8219694294300.124397970321831613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20243506447.22837.74242.48500.0192913490.0192913490.330.349291349FF15.228616.228257469.8219694294300.177197722702791613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 12:00:03FORECAST20243506449.24437.90443.57400.0212598540.0312598540.130.161259854FF17.244617.244257469.8219694294300.226055045457281613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20243506450.19836.9543.57400.0015748040.0115748040.10.111574804FF18.198618.198257469.8219694294300.251592853522051623515225DRYL
2024-09-08 04:00:04FORECAST20243506449.5537.92243.73600.0015748040.0115748040.10.111574804FF17.55611.55257469.8219694294300.234083218200371613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20243506449.78437.9443.862000.020.190.21FF17.784605.784257469.8219694294300.240327260832361613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-07 20:00:03FORECAST20243506450.88237.20244.042000.020.170.19FF18.882617.882257469.8219694294300.270798734406251623515225DRYL
2024-09-07 16:00:02FORECAST20243506451.20636.6843.943000.020.170.19FF19.206615.206257469.8219694294300.280144707751021623515225DRYL
2024-09-07 12:00:03FORECAST20243506452.32240.0146.166000.060.210.27FF20.322619.322257469.8219694294300.31347854254691623515225DRYL
2024-09-07 08:00:03FORECAST20243506452.68240.38846.535000.060.220.28FF20.682614.682257469.8219694294300.32458369250281623515225DRYL
2024-09-07 04:00:04FORECAST20243506451.00839.5645.284000.060.20.26FF19.008623.008257469.8219694294300.274414744407761623515225DRYL
2024-09-07 00:00:03FORECAST20243506450.55839.57845.06800.0007874020.0307874020.460.490787402FF18.558619.558257469.8219694294300.261610861941411623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 20:00:03FORECAST20243506453.47441.1847.327000.010.480.49FF21.474623.474257469.8219694294300.349559071844341623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 16:00:03FORECAST20243506459.70243.751.7010000.140.14FF27.702642.702257469.8219694294300.560174070303651633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-06 12:00:03FORECAST20243506456.89442.9849.9370000.080.08FF24.894635.894257469.8219694294300.463698661821931623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 08:00:03FORECAST20243506455.1341.5448.3350000.080.08FF23.13631.13257469.8219694294300.403817204946411623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 04:00:05FORECAST20243506452.59240.80246.6970000.10.1FF20.592634.592257469.8219694294300.321792252207581623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 00:00:03FORECAST20243506457.59643.98850.7920000.10.1FF25.596640.596257469.8219694294300.487839216956271623515225DRYL
2024-09-05 20:00:03FORECAST20243506456.89443.84450.3690000.160.16FF24.894634.894257469.8219694294300.463698661821931623515225DRYL
2024-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20243506459.1844.90652.0430000.160.16FF27.18642.18257469.8219694294300.542337656724151633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20243506459.77439.68649.730000.240.24FF27.774656.774257469.8219694294300.562625540241591633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-05 08:00:04FORECAST20243506459.4542.45850.9540000.220.22FF27.45656.45257469.8219694294300.551576350588561633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-05 04:00:04FORECAST20243506460.36839.66850.018000.090.10.19FF28.368648.368257469.8219694294300.582750067181361633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-05 00:00:04FORECAST20243506441.14435.3338.237000.090.110.2FF9.144619.144257469.8219694294300.0732059060067271613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-04 20:00:03FORECAST20243506441.88238.73240.307000.080.170.25FF9.882613.882257469.8219694294300.082502872765471613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-04 16:00:03FORECAST20243506442.49438.01240.253000.010.180.19FF10.494608.494257469.8219694294300.0908624982232351613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20243506439.57836.91438.246000.020.120.14FF7.578618.578257469.8219694294300.0561469989473661613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-04 08:00:04FORECAST20243506441.95437.439.67700.0122047310.0222047310.090.112204731FF9.954633.954257469.8219694294300.0834552993204761613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-04 04:00:05FORECAST20243506441.97240.35241.162000.020.090.11FF9.972624.972257469.8219694294300.0836946877416231613515222.5DRYL