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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 13, 2024

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DAY 349 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/12/2024 12:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.39°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.29°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.345
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 627

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 256
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 63

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 75.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-09-12 12:00:01FORECAST20243496354.19438.3946.29200.0129921330.5529921330.240.792992133FF22.194627.194256469.3343470174500.345391772342311623535275DRYVH
2024-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20243496353.47437.07645.27500.0035433090.5335433090.240.773543309FF21.474627.474256469.3343470174500.319993031771651623535275DRYVH
2024-09-12 04:00:03FORECAST20243496352.98837.47245.2300.0015748040.5615748040.240.801574804FF20.988625.988256469.3343470174500.303304629569151623535275DRYVH
2024-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20243496353.16837.5845.37400.0027559070.5027559070.240.742755907FF21.168626.168256469.3343470174500.309440293339811623535275DRYVH
2024-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20243496354.08638.1246.10300.0031496080.4231496080.240.663149608FF22.086627.086256469.3343470174500.341533758767731623525250DRYMH
2024-09-11 16:00:01FORECAST20243496353.74437.11245.428000.450.240.69FF21.744625.744256469.3343470174500.329427071745861623525250DRYMH
2024-09-11 12:00:01FORECAST20243496354.71638.31846.517000.450.240.69FF22.716626.716256469.3343470174500.364259556491881623525250DRYMH
2024-09-11 08:00:01FORECAST20243496354.89638.0346.46300.0011811030.5411811030.240.781181103FF22.896626.896256469.3343470174500.370845485552661623535275DRYVH
2024-09-11 04:00:04FORECAST20243496355.61639.21847.41700.0003937010.5803937010.240.820393701FF23.616629.616256469.3343470174500.397551322952171623535275DRYVH
2024-09-11 00:00:01FORECAST20243496356.10239.52447.813000.750.271.02FF24.102628.102256469.3343470174500.415861816086271623535275DRYVH
2024-09-10 20:00:01FORECAST20243496356.40838.87647.642000.610.280.89FF24.408627.408256469.3343470174500.427487789146761623535275DRYVH
2024-09-10 16:00:01FORECAST20243496356.87638.35447.615000.710.280.99FF24.876626.876256469.3343470174500.445387724459541623535275DRYVH
2024-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20243496357.25438.55247.903000.650.280.93FF25.254627.254256469.3343470174500.45992886786851623535275DRYVH
2024-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20243496356.15639.43447.795000.590.270.86FF24.156626.156256469.3343470174500.417908420415111623535275DRYVH
2024-09-10 04:00:04FORECAST20243496356.42639.5647.993000.580.310.89FF24.426628.426256469.3343470174500.428173738623061623535275DRYVH
2024-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20243496353.56438.6646.112000.50.270.77FF21.564618.564256469.3343470174500.323125193702641623535275DRYVH
2024-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20243496353.85238.62446.238000.440.280.72FF21.852619.852256469.3343470174500.333231718032711623525250DRYMH
2024-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20243496353.83438.85846.346000.470.270.74FF21.834618.834256469.3343470174500.332596404777641623525250DRYMH
2024-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20243496352.93439.3846.15700.0023622060.3723622060.270.642362206FF20.934621.934256469.3343470174500.301474580181741623525250DRYMH
2024-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20243496352.39439.21845.80600.0023622060.3523622060.250.602362206FF20.394620.394256469.3343470174500.283453920209221623525250DRYMH
2024-09-09 04:00:04FORECAST20243496352.57438.85845.71600.0023622060.4523622060.280.732362206FF20.574618.574256469.3343470174500.289403278414761623525250DRYMH
2024-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20243496349.69437.59843.64600.0027559070.3627559070.280.642755907FF17.694609.694256469.3343470174500.201891360593651613525245DRYM
2024-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20243496348.57836.15842.36800.0023622060.3823622060.310.692362206FF16.578608.578256469.3343470174500.172758433951551613525245DRYM
2024-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20243496349.67637.4943.58300.0027559070.2527559070.230.482755907FF17.676617.676256469.3343470174500.20139935217881613525245DRYM
2024-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20243496350.3639.05644.70800.0125984320.0625984320.230.292598432FF18.36617.36256469.3343470174500.220595765138651613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20243496350.938.3944.64500.0125984320.0325984320.230.262598432FF18.9616.9256469.3343470174500.236463085982951613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 04:00:04FORECAST20243496349.98239.09244.53700.0122047310.0322047310.230.262204731FF17.982610.982256469.3343470174500.209860737311591613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20243496347.78638.04842.917000.130.230.36FF15.786604.786256469.3343470174500.153795119390691613525245DRYM
2024-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20243496349.29838.5743.934000.110.230.34FF17.298616.298256469.3343470174500.191233650034141613525245DRYM
2024-09-07 16:00:02FORECAST20243496348.39836.96842.683000.110.230.34FF16.398613.398256469.3343470174500.168323148945091613525245DRYM
2024-09-07 12:00:03FORECAST20243496347.94837.77842.86300.0074803190.1874803190.230.417480319FF15.948615.948256469.3343470174500.15755769777551613525245DRYM
2024-09-07 08:00:03FORECAST20243496347.40838.13842.77300.007874020.187874020.240.42787402FF15.408611.408256469.3343470174500.145248244598941613525245DRYM
2024-09-07 04:00:04FORECAST20243496350.77438.344.53700.0074803190.1774803190.230.407480319FF18.774620.774256469.3343470174500.232705582310861613525245DRYM
2024-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20243496355.11240.53247.82200.023622060.413622060.230.64362206FF23.112618.112256469.3343470174500.378798656501231623525250DRYMH
2024-09-06 20:00:03FORECAST20243496355.88640.56848.227000.410.230.64FF23.886618.886256469.3343470174500.407698723883911623525250DRYMH
2024-09-06 16:00:02FORECAST20243496357.79442.65650.225000.060.230.29FF25.794631.794256469.3343470174500.480790421748131623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 12:00:03FORECAST20243496355.444.13249.7660000.230.23FF23.4628.4256469.3343470174500.389482659221761623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 08:00:03FORECAST20243496356.40842.78249.5950000.230.23FF24.408625.408256469.3343470174500.427487789146761623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 04:00:05FORECAST20243496359.4544.04251.746000.020.230.25FF27.45631.45256469.3343470174500.544848119317191633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-06 00:00:03FORECAST20243496358.51444.54651.53000.010.240.25FF26.514631.514256469.3343470174500.508677963992151633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-05 20:00:03FORECAST20243496355.92244.76250.342000.050.260.31FF23.922626.922256469.3343470174500.409056561889661623515225DRYL
2024-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20243496358.33446.09452.214000.050.260.31FF26.334632.334256469.3343470174500.50170472933121633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20243496359.37846.11252.745000.070.320.39FF27.378646.378256469.3343470174500.542075129387841633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-05 08:00:03FORECAST20243496359.14445.78852.466000.050.320.37FF27.144646.144256469.3343470174500.533049453903371633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-05 04:00:04FORECAST20243496350.41439.45244.93300.0543307380.0943307380.250.344330738FF18.414637.414256469.3343470174500.222154568707451613525245DRYM
2024-09-05 00:00:03FORECAST20243496349.62238.49844.0600.0641732630.1241732630.230.354173263FF17.622626.622256469.3343470174500.19992763578341613525245DRYM
2024-09-04 20:00:03FORECAST20243496349.62239.2944.45600.0562992430.1162992430.280.396299243FF17.622620.622256469.3343470174500.19992763578341613525245DRYM
2024-09-04 16:00:03FORECAST20243496352.01639.48845.75200.0129921330.0429921330.30.342992133FF20.016615.016256469.3343470174500.271154358249581623515225DRYL
2024-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20243496350.43238.71444.57300.007874020.057874020.230.28787402FF18.432628.432256469.3343470174500.222675561045541613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20243496357.7438.89448.31700.007874020.017874020.230.24787402FF25.74640.74256469.3343470174500.478700946929331623515225DRYL
2024-09-04 04:00:05FORECAST20243496353.92437.50845.71600.0055118140.0255118140.230.255511814FF21.924631.924256469.3343470174500.33577774070331623515225DRYL
2024-09-04 00:00:03FORECAST20243496341.2738.06639.66800.0200787510.0800787510.240.320078751FF9.27604.27256469.3343470174500.0490238804570491613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-03 20:00:03FORECAST20243496341.4538.04839.74900.0192913490.0892913490.20.289291349FF9.45605.45256469.3343470174500.0508308948157881613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20243496343.89838.85841.37800.0318897810.1618897810.350.511889781FF11.898593.898256469.3343470174500.0809916332330081613425240DRYM
2024-09-03 12:00:03FORECAST20243496346.25643.44844.852000.280.450.73FF14.256616.256256469.3343470174500.121195119821921613525245DRYM
2024-09-03 08:00:04FORECAST20243496348.16442.7145.43700.0783464990.2783464990.310.588346499FF16.164636.164256469.3343470174500.162667527023511613525245DRYM
2024-09-03 04:00:05FORECAST20243496348.245.5946.89500.0318897810.1818897810.760.941889781FF16.2621.2256469.3343470174500.16352950391811613525245DRYM