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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 17, 2024

[ Monday, September 16, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 18, 2024 ]

DAY 353 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/18/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.53°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.44°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.151
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 563

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.94 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.06 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 260
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 471.27 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 67

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-09-18 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243536743.5300838.4400440.9850600.0199999999999820.119999999999980.941.06FF11.53008562.53008260471.27376800312 00.1514408651754816 14425245DRYM
2024-09-18 00:00:01FORECAST20243536748.238.13843.16900.0007874020.1007874020.941.040787402FF16.2567.2261471.7540346002500.269810766694271624425250DRYMH
2024-09-17 12:00:02FORECAST20243536749.15438.35443.75400.0074803190.1074803190.941.047480319FF17.154568.154261471.7540346002500.298663755697131624425250DRYMH
2024-09-17 08:00:02FORECAST20243536749.94637.77843.86200.0129921330.1129921330.941.052992133FF17.946568.946261471.7540346002500.323630688427841624425250DRYMH
2024-09-17 04:00:03FORECAST20243536750.01837.90443.96100.0106299270.1106299270.941.050629927FF18.018569.018261471.7540346002500.325942559808211624425250DRYMH
2024-09-17 00:00:02FORECAST20243536750.0938.51644.30300.011811030.111811030.941.05181103FF18.09570.09260471.2737680031200.328261137331741624425250DRYMH
2024-09-16 20:00:02FORECAST20243536749.62238.04843.83500.0192913490.1192913490.941.059291349FF17.622569.622260471.2737680031200.313312263750461624425250DRYMH
2024-09-16 16:00:01FORECAST20243536746.7636.64441.70200.0169291430.1169291430.941.056929143FF14.76566.76260471.2737680031200.229071916531351614425245DRYM
2024-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20243536747.08438.06642.57500.0437008110.1437008110.941.083700811FF15.084567.084260471.2737680031200.237926614800151614425245DRYM
2024-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20243536747.31837.68842.50300.0681102730.1681102730.941.108110273FF15.318568.318260471.2737680031200.244436415289881614425245DRYM
2024-09-16 04:00:03FORECAST20243536747.2136.62641.91800.1283465260.2283465260.941.168346526FF15.21567.21260471.2737680031200.241420044217081614425245DRYM
2024-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20243536745.8636.89641.37800.1696851310.1996851310.941.139685131FF13.86568.86260471.2737680031200.205469361554191614425245DRYM
2024-09-15 20:00:02FORECAST20243536744.58236.540.54100.1854331710.2154331710.941.155433171FF12.582568.582260471.2737680031200.174549321116631614425245DRYM
2024-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20243536745.80637.23841.52200.1393701540.1693701540.941.109370154FF13.806571.806260471.2737680031200.204100597784691614425245DRYM
2024-09-15 12:00:01FORECAST20243536746.43637.4941.96300.133858340.163858340.941.10385834FF14.436572.436260471.2737680031200.220404842639651614425245DRYM
2024-09-15 08:00:02FORECAST20243536746.25637.70641.98100.137795350.177795350.941.11779535FF14.256572.256260471.2737680031200.215672027299061614425245DRYM
2024-09-15 04:00:03FORECAST20243536745.1437.41841.27900.1681103270.1681103270.941.108110327FF13.14570.14260471.2737680031200.187668896310781614425245DRYM
2024-09-15 00:00:01FORECAST20243536746.56237.34641.95400.1996064070.2096064070.961.169606407FF14.562575.562260471.2737680031200.223752870762041614425245DRYM
2024-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20243536745.96837.02241.49500.2944883480.3144883481.081.394488348FF13.968571.968260471.2737680031200.208223153601781614425245DRYM
2024-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20243536744.83437.50841.17100.2570867530.2670867531.081.347086753FF12.834567.834260471.2737680031200.180400690483971614425245DRYM
2024-09-14 12:00:02FORECAST20243536745.19437.18441.18900.2098426330.2198426331.081.299842633FF13.194568.194260471.2737680031200.188970007450241614425245DRYM
2024-09-14 08:00:02FORECAST20243536746.11237.23841.67500.1515748850.1615748851.071.231574885FF14.112570.112260471.2737680031200.211928484275681614425245DRYM
2024-09-14 04:00:04FORECAST20243536745.84237.61641.72900.149606380.159606381.021.17960638FF13.842568.842260471.2737680031200.20501250368131614425245DRYM
2024-09-14 00:00:02FORECAST20243536745.78837.23841.51300.2425198160.2625198160.921.182519816FF13.788570.788260471.2737680031200.203645550509121614425245DRYM
2024-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20243536745.4137.14841.27900.2342520950.2442520950.951.194252095FF13.41569.41260471.2737680031200.194229681222231614425245DRYM
2024-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20243536744.85237.29241.07200.2531497430.2831497430.961.243149743FF12.852570.852260471.2737680031200.180823291449721614425245DRYM
2024-09-13 12:00:02FORECAST20243536744.81636.53640.67600.2582678560.3082678560.961.268267856FF12.816568.816260471.2737680031200.179978708257071614425245DRYM
2024-09-13 08:00:02FORECAST20243536744.90637.05840.98200.2767718030.3167718030.991.306771803FF12.906570.906260471.2737680031200.18209480494281614425245DRYM
2024-09-13 04:00:04FORECAST20243536745.69836.39241.04500.283464720.333464721.081.41346472FF13.698566.698260471.2737680031200.201379385498711614425245DRYM
2024-09-13 00:00:02FORECAST20243536745.60836.82441.21600.3496064880.3596064880.781.139606488FF13.608568.608260471.2737680031200.199128371915721614425245DRYM
2024-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20243536744.49237.14840.8200.3078741820.3178741820.771.087874182FF12.492569.492260471.2737680031200.172489019511121614425245DRYM
2024-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20243536745.1437.63441.38700.2527560420.2627560420.730.992756042FF13.14570.14260471.2737680031200.187668896310781614425245DRYM
2024-09-12 12:00:02FORECAST20243536745.48237.8541.66600.185039470.205039470.740.94503947FF13.482566.482260471.2737680031200.1960024878011614425245DRYM
2024-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20243536747.62437.07642.3500.1476378750.1576378750.720.877637875FF15.624569.624260471.2737680031200.253091779357531624425250DRYMH
2024-09-12 04:00:04FORECAST20243536746.437.2241.8100.3027560690.3127560690.771.082756069FF14.4564.4260471.2737680031200.219453554149751614425245DRYM
2024-09-12 00:00:03FORECAST20243536742.81836.26639.54200.4661419840.4961419840.731.226141984FF10.818560.818260471.2737680031200.137005067037361614435267.5DRYH
2024-09-11 20:00:03FORECAST20243536744.11437.7640.93700.5059057850.5259057850.681.205905785FF12.114566.114260471.2737680031200.16400557656131614435267.5DRYH
2024-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20243536743.37636.35639.86600.3759844550.3959844550.681.075984455FF11.376563.376260471.2737680031200.148234766497241614425245DRYM
2024-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20243536744.83436.33840.58600.1188977020.1588977020.660.818897702FF12.834565.834260471.2737680031200.180400690483971614425245DRYM
2024-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20243536743.57436.1439.85700.1551181940.1951181940.730.925118194FF11.574564.574260471.2737680031200.152363112686781614425245DRYM
2024-09-11 04:00:05FORECAST20243536745.30237.9441.62100.1429134630.1829134630.760.942913463FF13.302576.302260471.2737680031200.191588812689861614425245DRYM
2024-09-11 00:00:02FORECAST20243536744.6936.87840.78400.090551230.110551230.911.02055123FF12.69569.69260471.2737680031200.177042171924121614425245DRYM
2024-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20243536744.31236.64440.47800.0830709110.0830709110.750.833070911FF12.312569.312260471.2737680031200.168415045341471614415222.5DRYL
2024-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20243536742.56634.4338.49800.0531496350.0531496350.860.913149635FF10.566561.566260471.2737680031200.132128651945211614415222.5DRYL
2024-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20243536744.09635.639.84800.1464567720.1864567720.780.966456772FF12.096574.096260471.2737680031200.163608454123861614425245DRYM
2024-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20243536743.93435.70839.82100.0807087050.1207087050.710.830708705FF11.934571.934260471.2737680031200.160062404424591614425245DRYM
2024-09-10 04:00:05FORECAST20243536743.14233.51238.32700.0751968910.1251968910.740.865196891FF11.142570.142260471.2737680031200.143452899373471614425245DRYM
2024-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20243536745.4133.38639.39800.019685050.069685050.620.68968505FF13.41555.41260471.2737680031200.194229681222231614415222.5DRYL
2024-09-09 20:00:03FORECAST20243536742.74632.37837.56200.2429135170.2929135170.570.862913517FF10.746551.746260471.2737680031200.135599459311171614425245DRYM
2024-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20243536740.49635.20437.8500.3834647740.4134647740.591.003464774FF8.496553.496260471.2737680031200.0965667309363081614425245DRYM
2024-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20243536742.1737.25639.71300.2751969990.4151969990.510.925196999FF10.17559.17260471.2737680031200.124709270780911614425245DRYM
2024-09-09 08:00:03FORECAST20243536742.02637.5839.80300.4929136520.6329136520.461.092913652FF10.026557.026260471.2737680031200.122084696314291614435267.5DRYH
2024-09-09 04:00:05FORECAST20243536741.70235.0638.38100.3704726410.5104726410.591.100472641FF9.702552.702260471.2737680031200.116321446021161614435267.5DRYH
2024-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20243536740.69435.13237.91300.4240159770.4240159770.510.934015977FF8.694540.694260471.2737680031200.0996294826938061614425245DRYM
2024-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20243536737.27431.80234.53800.2488190320.2488190320.560.808819032FF5.274532.274260471.2737680031200.0559633021693541614425245DRYM
2024-09-08 16:00:03FORECAST20243536739.43434.3436.88700.4972443630.5272443630.350.877244363FF7.434548.434260471.2737680031200.0813086081655521614435267.5DRYH
2024-09-08 12:00:03FORECAST20243536755.70635.83445.7700.2397639090.2997639090.160.459763909FF23.706562.706260471.2737680031200.522498132069311634425255DRYH
2024-09-08 08:00:04FORECAST20243536762.1536.55449.35200.2437009190.3037009190.110.413700919FF30.15574.15260471.2737680031200.736133211097091644425260DRYH
2024-09-08 04:00:05FORECAST20243536762.1536.55449.35200.2437009190.3037009190.110.413700919FF30.15567.15260471.2737680031200.736133211097091644425260DRYH
2024-09-08 00:00:04FORECAST20243536738.10233.87235.987000.150.210.36FF6.102533.102260471.2737680031200.0648249926585371614425245DRYM
2024-09-07 20:00:03FORECAST20243536737.32835.27636.30200.0803150040.3603150040.190.550315004FF5.328541.328260471.2737680031200.0565105760380151614425245DRYM
2024-09-07 16:00:03FORECAST20243536737.50835.22236.36500.0818898080.3518898080.190.541889808FF5.508539.508260471.2737680031200.0583652225525021614425245DRYM
2024-09-07 12:00:03FORECAST20243536743.32240.0141.666000.140.270.41FF11.322564.322260471.2737680031200.147121929470011614425245DRYM
2024-09-07 08:00:03FORECAST20243536740.17234.64637.409000.140.280.42FF8.172554.172260471.2737680031200.0917045951513741614425245DRYM
2024-09-07 04:00:05FORECAST20243536740.20837.56238.885000.150.260.41FF8.208563.208260471.2737680031200.0922357306759821614425245DRYM