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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 10, 2024

[ Monday, September 9, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 11, 2024 ]

DAY 346 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/11/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.86°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.18°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.517
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 639

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.53 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.54 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 253
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 467.86 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 60

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-09-11 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243466059.8600442.4999451.1799900.00999999999999090.00999999999999090.530.53999999999999FF27.86004638.86004253467.86031254069 00.5174313614158216 33515227.5DRYL
2024-09-11 00:00:01FORECAST20243466056.69643.01649.85600.0358267910.0358267910.530.565826791FF24.696635.696254468.3535256546200.393072219659211623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 12:00:01FORECAST20243466055.54442.20648.87500.0480315220.0480315220.530.578031522FF23.544634.544254468.3535256546200.349740540214371623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 08:00:01FORECAST20243466055.2243.37649.29800.0366141930.0366141930.530.566614193FF23.22634.22254468.3535256546200.337870857919291623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 04:00:03FORECAST20243466055.90443.77249.83800.0775590970.0775590970.530.607559097FF23.904634.904254468.3535256546200.363102945550791623515225DRYL
2024-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20243466054.80641.79248.29900.043307110.043307110.530.57330711FF22.806630.806253467.8603125406900.322936733624531623515225DRYL
2024-09-09 20:00:01FORECAST20243466055.52642.47649.00100.0468504190.0468504190.530.576850419FF23.526631.526253467.8603125406900.349077116422141623515225DRYL
2024-09-09 16:00:01FORECAST20243466055.43642.5348.98300.0374015950.0374015950.530.567401595FF23.436631.436253467.8603125406900.345766943918921623515225DRYL
2024-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20243466056.76843.53850.15300.0374015950.0374015950.530.567401595FF24.768632.768253467.8603125406900.39583143495321623515225DRYL
2024-09-09 08:00:01FORECAST20243466056.46243.3449.90100.0192913490.0192913490.530.549291349FF24.462633.462253467.8603125406900.384142463327751623515225DRYL
2024-09-09 04:00:03FORECAST20243466055.79642.04448.9200.0460630170.0460630170.530.576063017FF23.796631.796253467.8603125406900.359075825581081623515225DRYL
2024-09-09 00:00:02FORECAST20243466055.07641.07248.07400.0452756150.0452756150.530.575275615FF23.076628.076253467.8603125406900.332645875645431623515225DRYL
2024-09-08 20:00:01FORECAST20243466054.08639.68646.88600.0755905920.0755905920.530.605590592FF22.086630.086253467.8603125406900.297642441693281623515225DRYL
2024-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20243466055.63441.46848.55100.0031496080.0031496080.530.533149608FF23.634632.634253467.8603125406900.353064506135281623515225DRYL
2024-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20243466054.44640.85647.6510000.530.53FF22.446631.446253467.8603125406900.310177418743651623515225DRYL
2024-09-08 08:00:02FORECAST20243466053.79840.85647.3270000.530.53FF21.798628.798253467.8603125406900.28778396059241623515225DRYL
2024-09-08 04:00:03FORECAST20243466053.74441.61247.6780000.530.53FF21.744626.744253467.8603125406900.285952790698711623515225DRYL
2024-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20243466054.1441.77447.95700.0007874020.0007874020.530.530787402FF22.14621.14253467.8603125406900.299507912454181623515225DRYL
2024-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20243466055.29241.95448.6230000.530.53FF23.292627.292253467.8603125406900.340495183049441623515225DRYL
2024-09-07 16:00:01FORECAST20243466054.6841.01847.8490000.530.53FF22.68625.68253467.8603125406900.318446228427771623515225DRYL
2024-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20243466055.74243.1649.4510000.530.53FF23.742629.742253467.8603125406900.357068087404131623515225DRYL
2024-09-07 08:00:02FORECAST20243466054.93242.85448.893000.010.530.54FF22.932625.932253467.8603125406900.327453180447481623515225DRYL
2024-09-07 04:00:03FORECAST20243466055.88644.76250.3240000.530.53FF23.886629.886253467.8603125406900.362430693288471623515225DRYL
2024-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20243466055.50844.09649.8020000.530.53FF23.508625.508253467.8603125406900.348414153324911623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 20:00:02FORECAST20243466056.01242.99849.5050000.530.53FF24.012626.012253467.8603125406900.367145251277331623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 16:00:02FORECAST20243466057.84844.22251.0350000.530.53FF25.848630.848253467.8603125406900.437771663500321623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 12:00:02FORECAST20243466054.71640.38847.5520000.530.53FF22.716627.716253467.8603125406900.319726550391451623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20243466054.26639.50646.8860000.530.53FF22.266625.266253467.8603125406900.303881129601091623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 04:00:04FORECAST20243466054.98640.83847.9120000.530.53FF22.986628.986253467.8603125406900.32939660254691623515225DRYL
2024-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20243466057.00242.6249.81100.0059055150.0059055150.530.535905515FF25.002628.002253467.8603125406900.40483430732781623515225DRYL
2024-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20243466056.7541.88249.31600.0259842660.0259842660.530.555984266FF24.75627.75253467.8603125406900.395141135806891623515225DRYL
2024-09-05 16:00:02FORECAST20243466057.23641.50449.3700.0259842660.0259842660.530.555984266FF25.236630.236253467.8603125406900.413887827727041623515225DRYL
2024-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20243466060.54847.51654.03200.0940945390.0940945390.530.624094539FF28.548636.548253467.8603125406900.544669456424531633525255DRYH
2024-09-05 08:00:03FORECAST20243466060.29646.4953.39300.0913386320.0913386320.530.621338632FF28.296635.296253467.8603125406900.5347096674211633525255DRYH
2024-09-05 04:00:03FORECAST20243466061.75448.45255.10300.0181102460.0181102460.530.548110246FF29.754637.754253467.8603125406900.591839902363981633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-05 00:00:03FORECAST20243466062.22249.6455.93100.0047244120.0047244120.530.534724412FF30.222632.222253467.8603125406900.609830446099831633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20243466061.28648.61454.9500.0496063260.0496063260.530.579606326FF29.286629.286253467.8603125406900.573653657087051633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-04 16:00:03FORECAST20243466058.40647.49852.95200.0732283860.0732283860.530.603228386FF26.406619.406253467.8603125406900.459749867975641623515225DRYL
2024-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20243466060.58450.19855.3910000.530.53FF28.584628.584253467.8603125406900.546090142073411633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20243466061.4351.42256.4260000.530.53FF29.43629.43253467.8603125406900.579268024953091633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-04 04:00:04FORECAST20243466061.28650.93656.1110000.530.53FF29.286632.286253467.8603125406900.573653657087051633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-04 00:00:03FORECAST20243466057.05644.65450.85500.0358267910.0358267910.50.535826791FF25.056620.056253467.8603125406900.406919254037871623515225DRYL
2024-09-03 20:00:03FORECAST20243466057.77644.90651.34100.0019685050.0019685050.50.501968505FF25.776620.776253467.8603125406900.43494823924951623515225DRYL
2024-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20243466050.05442.22446.13900.1381890510.1481890510.50.648189051FF18.054608.054253467.8603125406900.175474769202881613525245DRYM
2024-09-03 12:00:03FORECAST20243466054.48243.64649.06400.248031630.248031630.50.74803163FF22.482619.482253467.8603125406900.311443457219581623525250DRYMH
2024-09-03 08:00:03FORECAST20243466058.65844.1551.40400.110236280.110236280.50.61023628FF26.658623.658253467.8603125406900.469720101688481623525250DRYMH
2024-09-03 04:00:05FORECAST20243466054.03241.95447.99300.5200790210.5600790210.51.060079021FF22.032611.032253467.8603125406900.29578228622331623535275DRYVH
2024-09-03 00:00:03FORECAST20243466049.42439.00244.21300.5488191940.6088191940.451.058819194FF17.424597.424253467.8603125406900.159742523592871613435260DRYH
2024-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20243466049.89241.9945.94100.5452758850.6052758850.451.055275885FF17.892602.892253467.8603125406900.171338683879531613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-02 16:00:03FORECAST20243466066.97451.24259.1080000.450.45FF34.974633.974253467.8603125406900.773990274307461643515230DRYL
2024-09-02 12:00:03FORECAST20243466073.0455.00464.0220000.450.45FF41.04650.04253467.8603125406900.912547730409941653515165DRYH
2024-09-02 08:00:03FORECAST20243466073.454.93264.1660000.450.45FF41.4648.4253467.8603125406900.918119289270461653515165DRYH
2024-09-02 04:00:05FORECAST20243466059.2745.39252.3310000.460.46FF27.27613.27253467.8603125406900.494000300936871623515225DRYL
2024-09-02 00:00:03FORECAST20243466054.9541.5448.2450000.520.52FF22.95598.95253467.8603125406900.328100472095211623415222.5DRYL
2024-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20243466054.24843.17848.7130000.530.53FF22.248594.248253467.8603125406900.303254644369191623415222.5DRYL
2024-09-01 16:00:03FORECAST20243466059.84645.51852.6820000.540.54FF27.846602.846253467.8603125406900.51687419754661633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-01 12:00:03FORECAST20243466062.4242.85452.6370000.490.49FF30.42605.42253467.8603125406900.617374002472341633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-01 08:00:03FORECAST20243466067.94644.1556.0480000.490.49FF35.946622.946253467.8603125406900.80202117574491643515230DRYL
2024-09-01 04:00:05FORECAST20243466067.94642.63855.2920000.540.54FF35.946618.946253467.8603125406900.80202117574491643515230DRYL
2024-09-01 00:00:04FORECAST20243466051.11642.02646.57100.0059055150.0059055150.50.505905515FF19.116588.116253467.8603125406900.204129815530751613415220DRYL
2024-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20243466050.48645.78848.13700.0059055150.0059055150.550.555905515FF18.486585.486253467.8603125406900.186809833570041613415220DRYL
2024-08-31 16:00:03FORECAST20243466054.6845.78850.23400.011811030.011811030.510.52181103FF22.68603.68253467.8603125406900.318446228427771623515225DRYL
2024-08-31 12:00:03FORECAST20243466051.60247.4849.5410000.510.51FF19.602590.602253467.8603125406900.218120958775221613415220DRYL
2024-08-31 08:00:03FORECAST20243466057.68655.05856.3720000.50.5FF25.686597.686253467.8603125406900.431423634152271623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-31 04:00:05FORECAST20243466057.90256.6657.2810000.510.51FF25.902578.902253467.8603125406900.439891320750151623415222.5DRYL