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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 11, 2024

[ Tuesday, September 10, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, September 12, 2024 ]

DAY 347 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/12/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.61°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.76°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.099
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 643

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.47 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.48 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.71 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 254
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 61

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-09-12 04:00:02OBSERVATION20243476145.6099841.9100843.7600300.470000000000030.480000000000030.230.71000000000003FF13.60998642.60998254468.35352565462 00.09924121127448716 13525245DRYM
2024-09-12 00:00:01FORECAST20243476145.53639.16442.3500.3893702890.3993702890.230.629370289FF13.536642.536255468.8448681152100.0981362090335941613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 12:00:01FORECAST20243476145.24839.16442.20600.3492127870.3592127870.230.589212787FF13.248642.248255468.8448681152100.0939200470652391613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 08:00:01FORECAST20243476145.64438.8442.24200.437008110.447008110.230.67700811FF13.644642.644255468.8448681152100.0997523837257791613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 04:00:04FORECAST20243476146.47239.34442.90800.4732286020.4832286020.230.713228602FF14.472643.472255468.8448681152100.112790299794741613525245DRYM
2024-09-11 00:00:01FORECAST20243476147.37239.43443.40300.6267719920.6667719920.230.896771992FF15.372641.372254468.3535256546200.128289188286351613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-10 20:00:01FORECAST20243476147.10239.61443.35800.543307380.593307380.230.82330738FF15.102640.102254468.3535256546200.12349219311751613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-10 16:00:01FORECAST20243476145.91439.43442.67400.6362208160.6862208160.230.916220816FF13.914638.914254468.3535256546200.103877425326791613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-10 12:00:01FORECAST20243476145.82440.13642.9800.5830711810.6330711810.230.863071181FF13.824638.824254468.3535256546200.102488928338891613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-10 08:00:01FORECAST20243476146.52640.13643.33100.5220475260.5620475260.230.792047526FF14.526638.526254468.3535256546200.113680875238141613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-10 04:00:03FORECAST20243476146.81440.69443.75400.5405514730.6205514730.230.850551473FF14.814639.814254468.3535256546200.118515014754331613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20243476144.92438.49841.71100.429134090.469134090.230.69913409FF12.924633.924254468.3535256546200.0893378711188931613525245DRYM
2024-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20243476145.35637.97641.66600.3811025680.4311025680.230.661102568FF13.356635.356254468.3535256546200.0954852157445691613525245DRYM
2024-09-09 16:00:01FORECAST20243476144.67238.13841.40500.4027561230.4427561230.230.672756123FF12.672633.672254468.3535256546200.085890164671471613525245DRYM
2024-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20243476147.13838.67842.90800.2901576370.3301576370.230.560157637FF15.138638.138254468.3535256546200.12412445428121613525245DRYM
2024-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20243476146.0439.09242.56600.27559070.29559070.230.5255907FF14.04637.04254468.3535256546200.105844093145671613525245DRYM
2024-09-09 04:00:03FORECAST20243476145.03238.67841.85500.3811025680.4311025680.230.661102568FF13.032635.032254468.3535256546200.0908464735532221613525245DRYM
2024-09-09 00:00:02FORECAST20243476143.57436.96840.27100.3574805080.4074805080.230.637480508FF11.574629.574254468.3535256546200.0720192872406861613525245DRYM
2024-09-08 20:00:01FORECAST20243476142.2635.72638.99300.3803151660.4603151660.230.690315166FF10.26630.26254468.3535256546200.0577487030238751613525245DRYM
2024-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20243476144.79837.36441.08100.2531497430.2531497430.230.483149743FF12.798635.798254468.3535256546200.0876014049322021613525245DRYM
2024-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20243476145.10436.93241.01800.0456693160.0456693160.230.275669316FF13.104634.104254468.3535256546200.0918626224632861613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 08:00:02FORECAST20243476144.49236.48240.48700.0192913490.0192913490.230.249291349FF12.492631.492254468.3535256546200.0834889606319411613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 04:00:03FORECAST20243476144.49237.07640.78400.0192913490.0192913490.230.249291349FF12.492629.492254468.3535256546200.0834889606319411613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20243476144.11436.55440.33400.1106299810.1106299810.230.340629981FF12.114623.114254468.3535256546200.078610633750661613525245DRYM
2024-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20243476145.6838.10241.89100.0881890240.0881890240.230.318189024FF13.68630.68254468.3535256546200.100295391910121613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-07 16:00:02FORECAST20243476146.0436.24841.14400.0850394160.0850394160.230.315039416FF14.04630.04254468.3535256546200.105844093145671613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20243476146.45439.12842.79100.1275591240.1275591240.230.357559124FF14.454634.454254468.3535256546200.11249454768991613525245DRYM
2024-09-07 08:00:02FORECAST20243476146.2239.14642.68300.1279528250.1279528250.240.367952825FF14.22630.22254468.3535256546200.108699939420011613525245DRYM
2024-09-07 04:00:04FORECAST20243476148.34440.49644.4200.1224410110.1224410110.230.352441011FF16.344636.344254468.3535256546200.146618410108361613525245DRYM
2024-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20243476146.25638.80442.5300.3783466610.3783466610.230.608346661FF14.256630.256254468.3535256546200.109277675831811613525245DRYM
2024-09-06 20:00:02FORECAST20243476145.57239.0242.29600.4011813190.4011813190.230.631181319FF13.572629.572254468.3535256546200.0986727956080251613525245DRYM
2024-09-06 16:00:02FORECAST20243476148.63238.98443.80800.0625984590.0625984590.230.292598459FF16.632637.632254468.3535256546200.152370347999411613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-06 12:00:02FORECAST20243476148.43436.24842.3410000.230.23FF16.434634.434254468.3535256546200.148400066808981613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-06 08:00:03FORECAST20243476147.9335.07841.5040000.230.23FF15.93630.93254468.3535256546200.138607708139681613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-06 04:00:05FORECAST20243476147.37236.37441.87300.0228346580.0228346580.230.252834658FF15.372634.372254468.3535256546200.128289188286351613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20243476148.00238.60643.30400.0114173290.0214173290.230.251417329FF16.002634.002254468.3535256546200.139979084260751613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-05 20:00:03FORECAST20243476147.10237.6742.38600.0492126250.0792126250.230.309212625FF15.102633.102254468.3535256546200.12349219311751613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20243476147.42637.16642.29600.0492126250.0792126250.230.309212625FF15.426635.426254468.3535256546200.129263861601821613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20243476150.95441.73846.34600.0653543660.1553543660.230.385354366FF18.954645.954254468.3535256546200.204115307962691613525245DRYM
2024-09-05 08:00:03FORECAST20243476151.56640.42445.99500.0496063260.1396063260.230.369606326FF19.566644.566254468.3535256546200.21931959046521613525245DRYM
2024-09-05 04:00:03FORECAST20243476157.68644.52851.10700.0027559070.0227559070.230.252755907FF25.686653.686254468.3535256546200.401509722100781623515225DRYL
2024-09-05 00:00:03FORECAST20243476157.23644.0650.64800.0263779670.0263779670.230.256377967FF25.236647.236254468.3535256546200.386656259152981623515225DRYL
2024-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20243476154.08643.5248.80300.0358267910.0858267910.230.315826791FF22.086641.086254468.3535256546200.28832771252341623515225DRYL
2024-09-04 16:00:03FORECAST20243476152.8842.847.8400.0326771830.1026771830.230.332677183FF20.88629.88254468.3535256546200.254066971269111623525250DRYMH
2024-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20243476157.21846.54451.88100.035433090.035433090.230.26543309FF25.218644.218254468.3535256546200.386065401328291623515225DRYL
2024-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20243476160.49447.3953.94200.0110236280.0110236280.230.241023628FF28.494647.494254468.3535256546200.496586274149831623515225DRYL
2024-09-04 04:00:05FORECAST20243476154.69843.75449.22600.0129921330.0129921330.230.242992133FF22.698644.698254468.3535256546200.306508159124081623515225DRYL
2024-09-04 00:00:03FORECAST20243476152.0743.17847.62400.0484252230.0884252230.20.288425223FF20.07630.07254468.3535256546200.23231446827741613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-03 20:00:03FORECAST20243476152.71843.32248.0200.051181130.051181130.20.25118113FF20.718631.718254468.3535256546200.249632816882541623515225DRYL
2024-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20243476150.03640.15445.09500.1244095160.2744095160.20.474409516FF18.036616.036254468.3535256546200.182521508168731613525245DRYM
2024-09-03 12:00:03FORECAST20243476151.843.32247.56100.2078741280.4578741280.20.657874128FF19.8628.8254468.3535256546200.225300388620431613525245DRYM
2024-09-03 08:00:03FORECAST20243476157.88445.57251.72800.0893701270.1993701270.20.399370127FF25.884639.884254468.3535256546200.408091996121021623525250DRYMH
2024-09-03 04:00:05FORECAST20243476159.57643.77251.67400.0685039740.6285039740.20.828503974FF27.576628.576254468.3535256546200.465213503664961623535275DRYVH
2024-09-03 00:00:04FORECAST20243476152.50238.345.40100.0653543660.6753543660.150.825354366FF20.502607.502254468.3535256546200.243785067004611613535267.5DRYH
2024-09-02 20:00:03FORECAST20243476153.00639.00246.00400.0539370370.6639370370.150.813937037FF21.006614.006254468.3535256546200.257544068757531623535275DRYVH
2024-09-02 16:00:03FORECAST20243476163.66251.56657.6140000.150.15FF31.662655.662254468.3535256546200.6038055740681633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-02 12:00:03FORECAST20243476166.21840.76653.4920000.150.15FF34.218674.218254468.3535256546200.685267746836961633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-02 08:00:03FORECAST20243476166.14643.26854.70700.0059055150.0059055150.150.155905515FF34.146672.146254468.3535256546200.683071051725491633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-02 04:00:05FORECAST20243476162.97843.26853.12300.011811030.011811030.160.17181103FF30.978633.978254468.3535256546200.581031408123691633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-02 00:00:03FORECAST20243476149.29841.01845.1580000.220.22FF17.298606.298254468.3535256546200.166236480622061613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-01 20:00:04FORECAST20243476145.96841.84643.9070000.230.23FF13.968597.968254468.3535256546200.104717023691391613415220DRYL
2024-09-01 16:00:03FORECAST20243476148.14643.14245.6440000.240.24FF16.146609.146254468.3535256546200.142749338951181613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-01 12:00:03FORECAST20243476149.31645.37447.3450000.190.19FF17.316612.316254468.3535256546200.166622186521431613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-01 08:00:03FORECAST20243476146.79642.65644.7260000.190.19FF14.796627.796254468.3535256546200.118208702636121613515222.5DRYL
2024-09-01 04:00:05FORECAST20243476146.83244.9645.8960000.240.24FF14.832623.832254468.3535256546200.118821885663151613515222.5DRYL