MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 9, 2024

[ Sunday, September 8, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 10, 2024 ]

DAY 345 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/10/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 62.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.51°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.57°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.600
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 31
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 623

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.83 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 252
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 467.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 59

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-09-10 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243455962.6399648.5099655.574960000.830.83FF30.63996622.63996252467.36522165142 00.6000213836465416 33515227.5DRYL
2024-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20243455959.70245.84252.7720000.830.83FF27.702619.702253467.8603125406900.478959373317321623515225DRYL
2024-09-09 12:00:01FORECAST20243455960.15246.41853.2850000.830.83FF28.152620.152253467.8603125406900.497658001589151623515225DRYL
2024-09-09 08:00:01FORECAST20243455960.72846.95853.8430000.830.83FF28.728620.728253467.8603125406900.521594157416791633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-09 04:00:03FORECAST20243455960.4447.55253.9960000.830.83FF28.44620.44253467.8603125406900.509630415043581633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-09 00:00:02FORECAST20243455960.36846.4953.4290000.830.83FF28.368617.368252467.3652216514200.506637703671191633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-08 20:00:01FORECAST20243455959.97246.02252.9970000.830.83FF27.972619.972252467.3652216514200.490175629817161623515225DRYL
2024-09-08 16:00:01FORECAST20243455961.23246.99454.1130000.830.83FF29.232621.232252467.3652216514200.542477516984161633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20243455960.63846.32853.4830000.830.83FF28.638620.638252467.3652216514200.517857070133011633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-08 08:00:02FORECAST20243455960.51245.75253.1320000.830.83FF28.512618.512252467.3652216514200.512622584358111633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-08 04:00:03FORECAST20243455959.1845.7752.4750000.830.83FF27.18617.18252467.3652216514200.457329575989451623515225DRYL
2024-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20243455959.32445.71652.520000.830.83FF27.324611.324252467.3652216514200.463286545655921623515225DRYL
2024-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20243455960.60247.10253.8520000.830.83FF28.602615.602252467.3652216514200.516361777322991633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-07 16:00:01FORECAST20243455960.09845.6852.8890000.830.83FF28.098615.098252467.3652216514200.49541308374981623515225DRYL
2024-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20243455961.73646.99454.3650000.830.83FF29.736617.736252467.3652216514200.563244227859581633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-07 08:00:02FORECAST20243455960.67446.72453.699000.010.830.84FF28.674614.674252467.3652216514200.519352111784911633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-07 04:00:03FORECAST20243455961.55647.80454.680000.830.83FF29.556617.556252467.3652216514200.555844495817711633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20243455961.57448.09254.8330000.830.83FF29.574613.574252467.3652216514200.556585389461511633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-06 20:00:02FORECAST20243455962.13248.09255.1120000.830.83FF30.132614.132252467.3652216514200.579442432907841633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-06 16:00:02FORECAST20243455963.6849.13656.4080000.830.83FF31.68616.68252467.3652216514200.641244408422981633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-06 12:00:02FORECAST20243455962.70848.50655.6070000.830.83FF30.708616.708252467.3652216514200.602758242296911633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20243455963.2348.23655.7330000.830.83FF31.23615.23252467.3652216514200.623577982215371633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-06 04:00:04FORECAST20243455963.28448.79456.0390000.830.83FF31.284618.284252467.3652216514200.625712515548791633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20243455963.35648.57855.9670000.830.83FF31.356615.356252467.3652216514200.628552568253121633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20243455963.26648.66855.9670000.830.83FF31.266615.266252467.3652216514200.625001428682651633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-05 16:00:02FORECAST20243455963.87848.4756.1740000.830.83FF31.878616.878252467.3652216514200.648925508766711633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20243455965.98451.09858.5410000.830.83FF33.984619.984252467.3652216514200.726380417344691643515230DRYL
2024-09-05 08:00:03FORECAST20243455965.62450.86458.2440000.830.83FF33.624618.624252467.3652216514200.713753075851291643515230DRYL
2024-09-05 04:00:03FORECAST20243455966.03851.00858.5230000.830.83FF34.038620.038252467.3652216514200.728250502599411643515230DRYL
2024-09-05 00:00:03FORECAST20243455966.48850.0958.2890000.830.83FF34.488614.488252467.3652216514200.743583184552981643515230DRYL
2024-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20243455965.44449.2857.3620000.830.83FF33.444612.444252467.3652216514200.707337418565131643515230DRYL
2024-09-04 16:00:03FORECAST20243455963.53645.60854.5720000.830.83FF31.536604.536252467.3652216514200.635621858639191633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20243455966.57851.13458.8560000.830.83FF34.578611.578252467.3652216514200.746594792188081643515230DRYL
2024-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20243455967.20851.00859.1080000.830.83FF35.208612.208252467.3652216514200.767145512317761643515230DRYL
2024-09-04 04:00:04FORECAST20243455967.26252.89860.080000.830.83FF35.262615.262252467.3652216514200.768862933251371643515230DRYL
2024-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20243455959.64846.90453.2760000.80.8FF27.648606.648252467.3652216514200.476717835578661623515225DRYL
2024-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20243455958.49646.72452.610000.80.8FF26.496607.496252467.3652216514200.429187145081461623515225DRYL
2024-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20243455955.77845.12250.4500.0110236280.0110236280.80.811023628FF23.778601.778252467.3652216514200.322150610898471623515225DRYL
2024-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20243455959.03646.2252.6280000.80.8FF27.036609.036252467.3652216514200.451382177655341623515225DRYL
2024-09-03 08:00:03FORECAST20243455960.83647.24654.0410000.80.8FF28.836608.836252467.3652216514200.526076128476811633515227.5DRYL
2024-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20243455960.11645.5952.85300.0374015950.0374015950.80.837401595FF28.116601.116252467.3652216514200.496161377067641623515225DRYL
2024-09-03 00:00:03FORECAST20243455955.1343.03449.08200.062992160.062992160.750.81299216FF23.13592.13252467.3652216514200.298324399771051623415222.5DRYL
2024-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20243455961.35846.8554.10400.0633858610.0633858610.750.813385861FF29.358597.358252467.3652216514200.547682346420191633415225DRYL
2024-09-02 16:00:03FORECAST20243455967.85653.99660.9260000.750.75FF35.856610.856252467.3652216514200.787282175275241643515230DRYL
2024-09-02 12:00:03FORECAST20243455972.30256.73264.5170000.750.75FF40.302621.302252467.3652216514200.896301716273891653515165DRYH
2024-09-02 08:00:03FORECAST20243455972.98656.98464.9850000.750.75FF40.986618.986252467.3652216514200.908596829938461653515165DRYH
2024-09-02 04:00:05FORECAST20243455963.15849.24456.2010000.760.76FF31.158598.158252467.3652216514200.620726061447771633415225DRYL
2024-09-02 00:00:03FORECAST20243455959.945.91452.9070000.820.82FF27.9587.9252467.3652216514200.487183501445421623415222.5DRYL
2024-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20243455960.49447.31853.9060000.830.83FF28.494584.494252467.3652216514200.511874602054091633415225DRYL
2024-09-01 16:00:02FORECAST20243455963.19450.28856.7410000.840.84FF31.194587.194252467.3652216514200.622152853779191633415225DRYL
2024-09-01 12:00:03FORECAST20243455960.58448.48854.5360000.790.79FF28.584586.584252467.3652216514200.515614043297721633415225DRYL
2024-09-01 08:00:03FORECAST20243455963.55449.17256.3630000.790.79FF31.554598.554252467.3652216514200.636326303790341633415225DRYL
2024-09-01 04:00:05FORECAST20243455963.547.33655.4180000.840.84FF31.5594.5252467.3652216514200.634211595958991633415225DRYL
2024-09-01 00:00:04FORECAST20243455966.68652.23259.4590000.80.8FF34.686580.686252467.3652216514200.75018406696371643415227.5DRYL
2024-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20243455968.52251.6260.0710000.850.85FF36.522578.522252467.3652216514200.806880492947611643415155DRYH
2024-08-31 16:00:03FORECAST20243455973.65254.33863.9950000.810.81FF41.652592.652252467.3652216514200.919499646848731653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 12:00:03FORECAST20243455972.53650.01861.2770000.810.81FF40.536582.536252467.3652216514200.900635818363581653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 08:00:03FORECAST20243455977.41450.12663.770000.80.8FF45.414584.414252467.3652216514200.963676266222761653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 04:00:04FORECAST20243455977.41448.1162.7620000.810.81FF45.414565.414252467.3652216514200.963676266222761653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 00:00:04FORECAST20243455951.90845.89648.9020000.90.9FF19.908532.908252467.3652216514200.19350074480371613415220DRYL
2024-08-30 20:00:03FORECAST20243455948.00245.12246.5620000.880.88FF16.002531.002252467.3652216514200.101594725654581613415220DRYL
2024-08-30 16:00:03FORECAST20243455947.71442.94445.3290000.840.84FF15.714517.714252467.3652216514200.096358722803791613415220DRYL
2024-08-30 12:00:03FORECAST20243455949.22645.80647.5160000.780.78FF17.226527.226252467.3652216514200.126150008927661613415220DRYL
2024-08-30 08:00:03FORECAST20243455953.79850.50452.1510000.80.8FF21.798547.798252467.3652216514200.252050521781241623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-30 04:00:05FORECAST20243455953.79852.80853.3030000.790.79FF21.798550.798252467.3652216514200.252050521781241623415222.5DRYL