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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 8, 2024

[ Saturday, September 7, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, September 9, 2024 ]

DAY 344 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/09/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.53°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.76°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.822
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 616

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.02 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 251
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 466.87 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 58

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-09-09 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243445868.5299253.0000660.764990001.021.02FF36.52992615.52992251466.86824583767 00.8224792412874416 43515160DRYH
2024-09-09 00:00:02FORECAST20243445866.3851.20658.7930001.021.02FF34.38613.38252467.3652216514200.760510356690751643515230DRYL
2024-09-08 12:00:01FORECAST20243445869.18851.51260.350001.021.02FF37.188616.188252467.3652216514200.839222583684141643515160DRYH
2024-09-08 08:00:02FORECAST20243445867.24451.87259.5580001.021.02FF35.244614.244252467.3652216514200.786724288949391643515230DRYL
2024-09-08 04:00:03FORECAST20243445866.84851.90859.3780001.021.02FF34.848613.848252467.3652216514200.774922439625741643515230DRYL
2024-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20243445867.24451.5359.3870001.021.02FF35.244608.244251466.8682458376700.786724288949391643515230DRYL
2024-09-07 20:00:01FORECAST20243445868.1852.10660.1430001.021.02FF36.18611.18251466.8682458376700.81314485665221643515160DRYH
2024-09-07 16:00:01FORECAST20243445867.58651.06259.3240001.021.02FF35.586610.586251466.8682458376700.796620677498941643515230DRYL
2024-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20243445868.57652.39460.4850001.021.02FF36.576611.576251466.8682458376700.823686202545781643515160DRYH
2024-09-07 08:00:02FORECAST20243445868.23452.12460.17900.0086614220.0086614221.021.028661422FF36.234610.234251466.8682458376700.814604797121691643515160DRYH
2024-09-07 04:00:03FORECAST20243445868.93653.3361.1330001.021.02FF36.936611.936251466.8682458376700.832936578847951643515160DRYH
2024-09-07 00:00:01FORECAST20243445868.50453.27660.890001.021.02FF36.504607.504251466.8682458376700.821798044826371643515160DRYH
2024-09-06 20:00:02FORECAST20243445868.61252.7960.7010001.021.02FF36.612607.612251466.8682458376700.824625527843341643515160DRYH
2024-09-06 16:00:01FORECAST20243445869.4453.85261.6460001.021.02FF37.44609.44251466.8682458376700.845352497708221643515160DRYH
2024-09-06 12:00:02FORECAST20243445869.854.30262.0510001.021.02FF37.8609.8251466.8682458376700.853838834007741653515165DRYH
2024-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20243445869.20654.35661.7810001.021.02FF37.206608.206251466.8682458376700.839665612045731643515160DRYH
2024-09-06 04:00:04FORECAST20243445870.23254.48262.35700.0023622060.0023622061.021.022362206FF38.232611.232251466.8682458376700.86360317666041653515165DRYH
2024-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20243445869.54853.45661.5020001.021.02FF37.548607.548251466.8682458376700.847931819296011643515160DRYH
2024-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20243445869.92653.70861.8170001.021.02FF37.926607.926251466.8682458376700.856733928831581653515165DRYH
2024-09-05 16:00:02FORECAST20243445870.48453.7862.1320001.021.02FF38.484609.484251466.8682458376700.869088829818461653515165DRYH
2024-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20243445870.44854.93262.6900.0011811030.0011811031.021.021181103FF38.448610.448251466.8682458376700.868314610683961653515165DRYH
2024-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20243445870.2555.25662.7530001.021.02FF38.25609.25251466.8682458376700.864000132328971653515165DRYH
2024-09-05 04:00:03FORECAST20243445870.10655.6762.8880001.021.02FF38.106610.106251466.8682458376700.86080236465321653515165DRYH
2024-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20243445870.17854.9562.5640001.021.02FF38.178604.178251466.8682458376700.862407571150511653515165DRYH
2024-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20243445869.58453.4261.5020001.021.02FF37.584602.584251466.8682458376700.8487852245071643515160DRYH
2024-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20243445867.40651.76459.5850001.021.02FF35.406597.406251466.8682458376700.791446556057731643415227.5DRYL
2024-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20243445867.9153.00660.4580001.021.02FF35.91600.91251466.8682458376700.805739185889011643515230DRYL
2024-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20243445868.25251.3559.8010001.021.02FF36.252601.252251466.8682458376700.815089869643151643515160DRYH
2024-09-04 04:00:04FORECAST20243445869.18855.88662.5370001.021.02FF37.188604.188251466.8682458376700.839222583684141643515160DRYH
2024-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20243445867.69452.03459.8640000.990.99FF35.694602.694251466.8682458376700.799688121806421643515230DRYL
2024-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20243445867.5553.27660.4130000.990.99FF35.55604.55251466.8682458376700.795592013213691643515230DRYL
2024-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20243445866.03849.67657.8570000.990.99FF34.038602.038251466.8682458376700.749668301837261643515230DRYL
2024-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20243445867.89251.92659.9090000.990.99FF35.892605.892251466.8682458376700.805239213941451643515230DRYL
2024-09-03 08:00:03FORECAST20243445868.79252.64660.7190000.990.99FF36.792603.792251466.8682458376700.8292745552321643515160DRYH
2024-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20243445867.49653.20460.350000.990.99FF35.496597.496251466.8682458376700.794043234888121643415227.5DRYL
2024-09-03 00:00:03FORECAST20243445868.6353.49261.0610000.940.94FF36.63592.63251466.8682458376700.825094001363771643415155DRYH
2024-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20243445868.77454.17661.4750000.940.94FF36.774591.774251466.8682458376700.828813225357451643415155DRYH
2024-09-02 16:00:03FORECAST20243445872.75257.43465.0930000.940.94FF40.752598.752251466.8682458376700.911681946280421653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 12:00:03FORECAST20243445873.8557.77665.8130000.940.94FF41.85604.85251466.8682458376700.928153528204251653515165DRYH
2024-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20243445873.36459.23466.2990000.940.94FF41.364602.364251466.8682458376700.921178274482341653515165DRYH
2024-09-02 04:00:04FORECAST20243445868.52254.39261.4570000.950.95FF36.522590.522251466.8682458376700.822271272098941643415155DRYH
2024-09-02 00:00:02FORECAST20243445866.41650.39658.4060001.011.01FF34.416584.416251466.8682458376700.761636543247651643415227.5DRYL
2024-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20243445865.98450.958.4420001.021.02FF33.984579.984251466.8682458376700.747932956763751643415227.5DRYL
2024-09-01 16:00:02FORECAST20243445868.97255.92262.4470001.031.03FF36.972579.972251466.8682458376700.833844131521551643415155DRYH
2024-09-01 12:00:03FORECAST20243445870.2555.81463.0320000.980.98FF38.25582.25251466.8682458376700.864000132328971653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 08:00:03FORECAST20243445874.2157.41665.8130000.980.98FF42.21591.21251466.8682458376700.9330086577051653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 04:00:05FORECAST20243445871.58255.11263.3470001.031.03FF39.582586.582251466.8682458376700.891207916588111653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 00:00:03FORECAST20243445870.17853.79861.9880000.990.99FF38.178570.178251466.8682458376700.862407571150511653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20243445871.34852.80862.0780001.041.04FF39.348566.348251466.8682458376700.886734417742251653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 16:00:02FORECAST20243445873.8555.92264.88600011FF41.85574.85251466.8682458376700.928153528204251653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 12:00:03FORECAST20243445867.80252.760.25100011FF35.802565.802251466.8682458376700.802727658740721643415227.5DRYL
2024-08-31 08:00:03FORECAST20243445868.12653.00660.5660000.990.99FF36.126563.126251466.8682458376700.811677838759011643415155DRYH
2024-08-31 04:00:04FORECAST20243445860.33244.6952.51100011FF28.332544.332251466.8682458376700.539012879582571633415225DRYL
2024-08-31 00:00:03FORECAST20243445859.10844.11451.6110001.091.09FF27.108537.108251466.8682458376700.489828690446961623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-30 20:00:03FORECAST20243445858.40644.0651.2330001.071.07FF26.406539.406251466.8682458376700.46164188847661623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-30 16:00:03FORECAST20243445858.89239.30849.10001.031.03FF26.892525.892251466.8682458376700.481143847510221623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-30 12:00:03FORECAST20243445864.09439.23651.665000.010.960.97FF32.094534.094251466.8682458376700.683449072328091633415225DRYL
2024-08-30 08:00:03FORECAST20243445873.50839.99256.75000.010.980.99FF41.508549.508251466.8682458376700.923296323466921653415160DRYH
2024-08-30 04:00:05FORECAST20243445873.50841.12657.317000.010.970.98FF41.508552.508251466.8682458376700.923296323466921653415160DRYH
2024-08-30 00:00:04FORECAST20243445845.37442.15243.7630000.960.96FF13.374515.374251466.8682458376700.0790649847305181613415220DRYL
2024-08-29 20:00:03FORECAST20243445847.13842.90845.02300011FF15.138527.138251466.8682458376700.108761005432681613415220DRYL
2024-08-29 16:00:03FORECAST20243445853.38445.21249.29800011FF21.384566.384251466.8682458376700.27331997529421623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-29 12:00:03FORECAST20243445857.77654.98656.3810000.980.98FF25.776573.776251466.8682458376700.436504989385951623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-29 08:00:04FORECAST20243445855.43652.59254.0140000.970.97FF23.436566.436251466.8682458376700.346112581170831623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-29 04:00:05FORECAST20243445855.5854.03254.8060000.940.94FF23.58562.58251466.8682458376700.351485194101941623415222.5DRYL