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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 7, 2024

[ Friday, September 6, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 8, 2024 ]

DAY 343 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/08/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 77.92°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 69.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 73.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.952
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 46
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 597

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.02 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 250
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 466.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 57

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-09-08 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243435777.9199869.2673.589990001.021.02FF45.91998596.91998250466.36937792312 00.9521728659802716 53415160DRYH
2024-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20243435771.97859.32465.6510001.021.02FF39.978590.978251466.8682458376700.873619202653861653415160DRYH
2024-09-07 12:00:01FORECAST20243435773.56260.02666.7940001.021.02FF41.562592.562251466.8682458376700.90023075574071653415160DRYH
2024-09-07 08:00:01FORECAST20243435772.8660.6266.740001.021.02FF40.86591.86251466.8682458376700.888988669347431653415160DRYH
2024-09-07 04:00:03FORECAST20243435774.13860.54867.3430001.021.02FF42.138593.138251466.8682458376700.908816971521651653415160DRYH
2024-09-07 00:00:01FORECAST20243435775.45260.51267.9820001.021.02FF43.452589.452250466.3693779231200.926340458853191653415160DRYH
2024-09-06 20:00:01FORECAST20243435774.89459.77467.3340001.021.02FF42.894588.894250466.3693779231200.919241046884091653415160DRYH
2024-09-06 16:00:01FORECAST20243435776.08260.38668.2340001.021.02FF44.082590.082250466.3693779231200.933773054466081653415160DRYH
2024-09-06 12:00:01FORECAST20243435775.75861.95268.8550001.021.02FF43.758589.758250466.3693779231200.930026306315941653415160DRYH
2024-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20243435775.21861.41268.3150001.021.02FF43.218589.218250466.3693779231200.92342344715241653415160DRYH
2024-09-06 04:00:03FORECAST20243435776.38861.17868.7830001.021.02FF44.388591.388250466.3693779231200.937167630816061653415160DRYH
2024-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20243435776.22660.72868.4770001.021.02FF44.226588.226250466.3693779231200.935387730923091653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20243435775.52460.87268.1980001.021.02FF43.524587.524250466.3693779231200.927220751386331653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 16:00:02FORECAST20243435776.1961.57468.8820001.021.02FF44.19589.19250466.3693779231200.934986947401541653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20243435777.28862.16869.7280001.021.02FF45.288590.288250466.3693779231200.946371611831671653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20243435777.3662.1569.7550001.021.02FF45.36589.36250466.3693779231200.947059333142511653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 04:00:03FORECAST20243435777.43262.04269.7370001.021.02FF45.432590.432250466.3693779231200.947740064058091653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20243435775.93860.87268.4050001.021.02FF43.938583.938250466.3693779231200.932127408127061653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 20:00:01FORECAST20243435776.4660.83668.6480001.021.02FF44.46583.46250466.3693779231200.937946371920641653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20243435774.06659.93667.0010001.021.02FF42.066580.066250466.3693779231200.907774585744251653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20243435775.81261.14268.4770001.021.02FF43.812582.812250466.3693779231200.930661808174811653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20243435776.78460.94468.8640001.021.02FF44.784582.784250466.3693779231200.941358179800891653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 04:00:04FORECAST20243435777.01860.09868.5580001.021.02FF45.018585.018250466.3693779231200.943729654800591653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20243435775.6558.7367.190000.990.99FF43.65584.65250466.3693779231200.928741915651491653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20243435775.97459.2767.6220000.990.99FF43.974586.974250466.3693779231200.932541740896071653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20243435775.0259.79267.4060000.990.99FF43.02586.02250466.3693779231200.920887510854661653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20243435774.80459.68467.2440000.990.99FF42.804587.804250466.3693779231200.918049305734111653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 08:00:02FORECAST20243435774.10259.37866.740000.990.99FF42.102585.102250466.3693779231200.908296872268061653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20243435772.7757.84865.3090000.990.99FF40.77579.77250466.3693779231200.887484435318731653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 00:00:03FORECAST20243435774.55257.75866.1550000.940.94FF42.552573.552250466.3693779231200.914642207637641653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20243435775.39858.42466.9110000.940.94FF43.398573.398250466.3693779231200.925674933262411653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 16:00:02FORECAST20243435775.16458.80266.9830000.940.94FF43.164576.164250466.3693779231200.922738019681121653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 12:00:03FORECAST2024343577759.12668.0630000.940.94FF45581250466.3693779231200.943549951212411653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20243435775.54259.9967.7660000.940.94FF43.542578.542250466.3693779231200.92743956515061653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 04:00:04FORECAST20243435773.99459.28866.6410000.950.95FF41.994571.994250466.3693779231200.906723435159161653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 00:00:02FORECAST20243435773.00456.73264.8680001.011.01FF41.004568.004250466.3693779231200.891365483795631653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20243435772.30257.59664.9490001.021.02FF40.302564.302250466.3693779231200.879428415371861653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 16:00:02FORECAST20243435772.08656.8464.4630001.031.03FF40.086561.086250466.3693779231200.87557682657591653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 12:00:02FORECAST20243435773.65257.30865.480000.980.98FF41.652561.652250466.3693779231200.901609830167911653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 08:00:03FORECAST20243435775.00257.88466.4430000.980.98FF43.002567.002250466.3693779231200.920653865062281653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 04:00:05FORECAST20243435772.5956.8464.7150001.031.03FF40.59564.59250466.3693779231200.884432551639411653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 00:00:03FORECAST20243435766.88453.74460.3140000.990.99FF34.884549.884250466.3693779231200.756907256838491643415227.5DRYL
2024-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20243435767.53251.38659.4590001.041.04FF35.532544.532250466.3693779231200.774354718799681643415227.5DRYL
2024-08-31 16:00:02FORECAST20243435770.71852.9761.84400011FF38.718550.718250466.3693779231200.84919534950351653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 12:00:03FORECAST20243435768.8152.8860.84500011FF36.81547.81250466.3693779231200.806604605402311643415155DRYH
2024-08-31 08:00:03FORECAST20243435768.07252.10660.0890000.990.99FF36.072545.072250466.3693779231200.788337373787151643415155DRYH
2024-08-31 04:00:04FORECAST20243435761.26847.96654.61700011FF29.268534.268250466.3693779231200.580645371682631633415225DRYL
2024-08-31 00:00:03FORECAST20243435762.34848.54255.4450001.091.09FF30.348528.348250466.3693779231200.617269480184071633415225DRYL
2024-08-30 20:00:03FORECAST20243435762.02446.83254.4280001.071.07FF30.024531.024250466.3693779231200.606375807353211633415225DRYL
2024-08-30 16:00:03FORECAST20243435755.88642.29649.0910001.031.03FF23.886516.886250466.3693779231200.394066222491621623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-30 12:00:03FORECAST20243435754.28441.73848.011000.010.960.97FF22.284520.284250466.3693779231200.341153513660751623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-30 08:00:03FORECAST20243435754.51841.66648.092000.010.980.99FF22.518525.518250466.3693779231200.348718493689541623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-30 04:00:05FORECAST20243435755.88642.4449.163000.010.970.98FF23.886528.886250466.3693779231200.394066222491621623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-30 00:00:04FORECAST20243435757.48844.83451.1610000.960.96FF25.488520.488250466.3693779231200.449012107557061623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-29 20:00:03FORECAST2024343575945.66252.33100011FF27530250466.3693779231200.501804527882931633415225DRYL
2024-08-29 16:00:03FORECAST20243435767.65854.24860.95300011FF35.658562.658250466.3693779231200.777663209640611643415227.5DRYL
2024-08-29 12:00:03FORECAST20243435779.26850.79265.030000.980.98FF47.268566.268250466.3693779231200.962873901465661653415160DRYH
2024-08-29 08:00:03FORECAST20243435774.64251.15262.8970000.970.97FF42.642560.642250466.3693779231200.915870965691211653415160DRYH
2024-08-29 04:00:05FORECAST20243435774.64243.01658.82900.0003937010.0003937010.940.940393701FF42.642556.642250466.3693779231200.915870965691211653415160DRYH
2024-08-29 00:00:03FORECAST20243435760.36853.31256.840000.940.94FF28.368536.368250466.3693779231200.549567202510951633415225DRYL
2024-08-28 20:00:03FORECAST20243435753.54640.89247.2190000.940.94FF21.546524.546250466.3693779231200.317721343959861623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-28 16:00:03FORECAST20243435747.69640.89244.29400.0047244120.0047244120.940.944724412FF15.696507.696250466.3693779231200.161679876686961613415220DRYL
2024-08-28 12:00:03FORECAST20243435753.83448.45251.14300011FF21.834520.834250466.3693779231200.326785577134691623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-28 08:00:03FORECAST20243435752.46649.71251.08900011FF20.466512.466250466.3693779231200.2847259990461623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-28 04:00:05FORECAST20243435752.59251.1751.8810000.950.95FF20.592522.592250466.3693779231200.288490134331921623415222.5DRYL