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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 6, 2024

[ Thursday, September 5, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, September 7, 2024 ]

DAY 342 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/07/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 82.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 65.10°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 73.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.978
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 50
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 570

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 249
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.87 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 56

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-09-07 04:00:02OBSERVATION20243425682.2999265.1000273.699970001.031.03FF50.29992570.29992249465.86861070411 00.9784682168559616 53415160DRYH
2024-09-07 00:00:01FORECAST20243425677.43258.40667.9190001.031.03FF45.432565.432250466.3693779231200.942309231178141653415160DRYH
2024-09-06 12:00:01FORECAST20243425676.92858.02867.4780001.031.03FF44.928564.928250466.3693779231200.936752454624621653415160DRYH
2024-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20243425676.6457.84867.2440001.031.03FF44.64564.64250466.3693779231200.933395627237271653415160DRYH
2024-09-06 04:00:03FORECAST20243425677.55857.36267.460001.031.03FF45.558565.558250466.3693779231200.943636817440591653415160DRYH
2024-09-06 00:00:01FORECAST20243425678.63857.362680001.031.03FF46.638562.638249465.8686107041100.954054390917351653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 20:00:01FORECAST20243425678.20657.2967.7480001.031.03FF46.206563.206249465.8686107041100.950089218282011653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 16:00:02FORECAST20243425678.58457.54268.0630001.031.03FF46.584563.584249465.8686107041100.953572990439041653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20243425679.32259.14469.2330001.031.03FF47.322564.322249465.8686107041100.959812652203631653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20243425678.90859.66669.2870001.031.03FF46.908562.908249465.8686107041100.956401735309251653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 04:00:02FORECAST20243425679.12460.3569.7370001.031.03FF47.124564.124249465.8686107041100.958209314733211653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20243425678.51259.10868.810001.031.03FF46.512558.512249465.8686107041100.952924854561491653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 20:00:01FORECAST20243425677.88259.32468.6030001.031.03FF45.882557.882249465.8686107041100.946940495993091653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20243425677.57658.74868.1620001.031.03FF45.576556.576249465.8686107041100.943824497530991653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20243425678.33259.97269.1520001.031.03FF46.332558.332249465.8686107041100.951272856658151653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20243425678.40459.969.1520001.031.03FF46.404557.404249465.8686107041100.951939114703781653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 04:00:04FORECAST20243425678.31459.05468.6840001.031.03FF46.314559.314249465.8686107041100.951105147610831653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20243425678.02659.28868.65700011FF46.026560.026249465.8686107041100.948358787520341653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20243425678.1759.66668.91800011FF46.17562.17249465.8686107041100.949746870474291653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20243425678.22460.29669.2600011FF46.224562.224249465.8686107041100.95025969558071653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20243425678.22459.91869.07100011FF46.224564.224249465.8686107041100.95025969558071653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 08:00:02FORECAST20243425677.52259.82868.67500011FF45.522561.522249465.8686107041100.94325997978511653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20243425676.69459.21667.95500011FF44.694557.694249465.8686107041100.934035285961581653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 00:00:03FORECAST20243425676.94658.60467.7750000.950.95FF44.946549.946249465.8686107041100.936957815952381653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20243425676.78458.4667.6220000.950.95FF44.784548.784249465.8686107041100.935090828290841653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 16:00:02FORECAST20243425676.4658.0167.2350000.950.95FF44.46552.46249465.8686107041100.931228843173281653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 12:00:02FORECAST20243425677.84658.49668.1710000.950.95FF45.846554.846249465.8686107041100.946581156005131653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20243425676.62259.34267.9820000.950.95FF44.622553.622249465.8686107041100.933181347742531653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 04:00:04FORECAST20243425676.29859.01867.6580000.960.96FF44.298549.298249465.8686107041100.929232790694481653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 00:00:02FORECAST20243425676.31658.60467.460001.021.02FF44.316546.316249465.8686107041100.929456740934951653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20243425675.14659.52267.3340001.031.03FF43.146543.146249465.8686107041100.913738708396451653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 16:00:02FORECAST20243425674.1259.50466.8120001.041.04FF42.12540.12249465.8686107041100.897925207073261653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 12:00:02FORECAST20243425674.15658.8266.4880000.990.99FF42.156539.156249465.8686107041100.898513453115411653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 08:00:02FORECAST20243425675.43459.12667.280000.990.99FF43.434543.434249465.8686107041100.917830778174351653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 04:00:04FORECAST20243425673.95860.38667.1720001.041.04FF41.958542.958249465.8686107041100.895247493050131653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 00:00:03FORECAST20243425669.13454.9562.04200011FF37.134534.134249465.8686107041100.791566430179211643415155DRYH
2024-08-31 20:00:02FORECAST20243425669.47654.28461.880001.051.05FF37.476528.476249465.8686107041100.800459433217891643415155DRYH
2024-08-31 16:00:02FORECAST20243425669.29655.59862.4470001.011.01FF37.296531.296249465.8686107041100.795807644256191643415155DRYH
2024-08-31 12:00:03FORECAST20243425670.84456.01263.4280001.011.01FF38.844529.844249465.8686107041100.833693099257751643415155DRYH
2024-08-31 08:00:03FORECAST20243425670.03455.16662.600011FF38.034528.034249465.8686107041100.814470289910261643415155DRYH
2024-08-31 04:00:04FORECAST20243425668.21653.43860.8270001.011.01FF36.216524.216249465.8686107041100.766572298449521643415155DRYH
2024-08-31 00:00:03FORECAST20243425666.2953.34859.8190001.11.1FF34.29517.29249465.8686107041100.709129169138381643415227.5DRYL
2024-08-30 20:00:03FORECAST20243425666.68653.54660.1160001.081.08FF34.686519.686249465.8686107041100.721459970630121643415227.5DRYL
2024-08-30 16:00:02FORECAST20243425661.66447.28254.4730001.041.04FF29.664511.664249465.8686107041100.550267217628811633415225DRYL
2024-08-30 12:00:03FORECAST20243425659.52246.50853.01500.0070866180.0070866180.970.977086618FF27.522516.522249465.8686107041100.472009138938061623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20243425658.85646.02252.43900.0090551230.0090551230.990.999055123FF26.856521.856249465.8686107041100.447755283686481623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-30 04:00:05FORECAST20243425659.79246.56253.17700.0102362260.0102362260.980.990236226FF27.792523.792249465.8686107041100.481876594980851623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-30 00:00:03FORECAST20243425662.6949.9156.30000.970.97FF30.69513.69249465.8686107041100.587253534134561633415225DRYL
2024-08-29 20:00:03FORECAST20243425663.55450.61257.0830001.011.01FF31.554521.554249465.8686107041100.617823494758711633415225DRYL
2024-08-29 16:00:03FORECAST20243425675.48857.1166.2990001.011.01FF43.488546.488249465.8686107041100.918581544695641653415160DRYH
2024-08-29 12:00:03FORECAST20243425674.46255.8565.1560000.990.99FF42.462538.462249465.8686107041100.90341442811361653415160DRYH
2024-08-29 08:00:03FORECAST20243425673.0456.80464.9220000.980.98FF41.04537.04249465.8686107041100.87911368558951653415160DRYH
2024-08-29 04:00:05FORECAST20243425670.03453.36661.70000.950.95FF38.034533.034249465.8686107041100.814470289910261643415155DRYH
2024-08-29 00:00:03FORECAST20243425669.2653.67261.4660000.950.95FF37.26527.26249465.8686107041100.794869611411691643415155DRYH
2024-08-28 20:00:02FORECAST20243425664.07651.74657.9110000.950.95FF32.076522.076249465.8686107041100.635956123789231633415225DRYL
2024-08-28 16:00:03FORECAST20243425663.57248.70456.1380000.950.95FF31.572510.572249465.8686107041100.618453339745661633415225DRYL
2024-08-28 12:00:03FORECAST20243425674.01255.23864.6250001.011.01FF42.012518.012249465.8686107041100.896145640741251653415160DRYH
2024-08-28 08:00:03FORECAST20243425670.05253.31261.6820001.011.01FF38.052511.052249465.8686107041100.814911868595961643415155DRYH
2024-08-28 04:00:05FORECAST20243425672.64452.17862.4110000.960.96FF40.644520.644249465.8686107041100.871641539402961653415160DRYH
2024-08-28 00:00:03FORECAST20243425659.28848.88454.0860000.850.85FF27.288512.288249465.8686107041100.463471000811281623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-27 20:00:03FORECAST20243425659.1847.06653.1230000.850.85FF27.18511.18249465.8686107041100.45953574965361623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-27 16:00:03FORECAST20243425659.1847.06653.1230000.860.86FF27.18505.18249465.8686107041100.45953574965361623415222.5DRYL
2024-08-27 12:00:04FORECAST20243425655.4952.53854.0140000.930.93FF23.49492.49249465.8686107041100.329891501508581623315220DRYL
2024-08-27 08:00:04FORECAST20243425655.00452.3453.6720000.90.9FF23.004493.004249465.8686107041100.313905001101281623315220DRYL
2024-08-27 04:00:04FORECAST20243425654.87853.54654.2120000.980.98FF22.878487.878249465.8686107041100.309815154415251623315220DRYL