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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 5, 2024

[ Wednesday, September 4, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, September 6, 2024 ]

DAY 341 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/06/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 78.13°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 63.29°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 70.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.934
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 46
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 544

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 248
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 55

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-09-06 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243415578.1300463.2899470.70999000.0311.03FF46.13004544.13004248465.36593694953 00.9342166536270516 53415160DRYH
2024-09-06 00:00:01FORECAST20243415573.74255.38264.562000.0311.03FF41.742539.742249465.8686107041100.870351824204091653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20243415574.51655.4965.003000.0311.03FF42.516540.516249465.8686107041100.883960715257611653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20243415574.3955.95865.174000.0311.03FF42.39540.39249465.8686107041100.881817047612241653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 04:00:02FORECAST20243415575.14656.26465.705000.0311.03FF43.146541.146249465.8686107041100.89426637473381653415160DRYH
2024-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20243415575.97454.24865.111000.0311.03FF43.974535.974248465.3659369495300.906784904457831653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 20:00:01FORECAST20243415575.72254.06864.895000.0311.03FF43.722535.722248465.3659369495300.903096281087271653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20243415575.27254.12264.697000.0311.03FF43.272535.272248465.3659369495300.896245802428671653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20243415575.7456.46266.101000.0311.03FF43.74535.74248465.3659369495300.903363245048621653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20243415575.32656.64265.984000.0311.03FF43.326535.326248465.3659369495300.897085875170391653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 04:00:03FORECAST20243415575.57856.365.939000.0311.03FF43.578536.578248465.3659369495300.900941118690391653415160DRYH
2024-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20243415575.52456.62466.07400011FF43.524537.524248465.3659369495300.900123989417721653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20243415575.75856.37266.06500011FF43.758539.758248465.3659369495300.903629670169011653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 16:00:01FORECAST20243415576.31657.6566.98300011FF44.316540.316248465.3659369495300.911624061125491653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20243415576.80257.54267.17200011FF44.802541.802248465.3659369495300.918176273340841653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 08:00:02FORECAST20243415576.13657.07466.60500011FF44.136540.136248465.3659369495300.909100922356541653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20243415575.05656.51665.78600011FF43.056537.056248465.3659369495300.892835932961631653415160DRYH
2024-09-03 00:00:02FORECAST20243415575.81255.90465.8580000.950.95FF43.812528.812248465.3659369495300.904425716909311653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 20:00:01FORECAST20243415574.76855.95865.3630000.950.95FF42.768527.768248465.3659369495300.888165173046311653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 16:00:02FORECAST20243415575.6555.59865.6240000.950.95FF43.65531.65248465.3659369495300.902023028059371653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 12:00:02FORECAST20243415576.76656.22866.4970000.950.95FF44.766532.766248465.3659369495300.917703802572911653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20243415576.69456.7566.7220000.950.95FF44.694532.694248465.3659369495300.916752722961041653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 04:00:04FORECAST20243415575.25456.7566.0020000.960.96FF43.254529.254248465.3659369495300.895964679294361653415160DRYH
2024-09-02 00:00:02FORECAST20243415576.78456.62466.7040001.021.02FF44.784525.784248465.3659369495300.917940293271121653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 20:00:02FORECAST20243415576.26258.31667.2890001.031.03FF44.262524.262248465.3659369495300.910872642651121653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 16:00:02FORECAST20243415574.7557.54266.1460001.041.04FF42.75521.75248465.3659369495300.887868505385061653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 12:00:02FORECAST20243415575.16458.11866.6410000.990.99FF43.164521.164248465.3659369495300.89455080430831653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 08:00:02FORECAST20243415576.04658.167.0730000.990.99FF44.046524.046248465.3659369495300.907819555229061653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 04:00:04FORECAST20243415575.93858.22667.0820001.041.04FF43.938524.938248465.3659369495300.9062643831141653415160DRYH
2024-09-01 00:00:03FORECAST20243415576.62258.7367.67600011FF44.622520.622248465.3659369495300.915793431317431653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 20:00:02FORECAST20243415575.09256.8465.9660001.051.05FF43.092515.092248465.3659369495300.893409769961421653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 16:00:02FORECAST20243415575.66858.166.8840001.011.01FF43.668517.668248465.3659369495300.902292151766751653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 12:00:02FORECAST20243415574.73256.53465.6330001.011.01FF42.732514.732248465.3659369495300.887571277392451653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 08:00:02FORECAST20243415574.96655.7665.36300011FF42.966513.966248465.3659369495300.891391633707271653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 04:00:03FORECAST20243415574.06656.71465.390001.011.01FF42.066512.066248465.3659369495300.876177027374531653415160DRYH
2024-08-31 00:00:03FORECAST20243415573.16656.35464.760001.11.1FF41.166507.166248465.3659369495300.859534576643411653415160DRYH
2024-08-30 20:00:03FORECAST20243415572.73456.26464.4990001.081.08FF40.734508.734248465.3659369495300.851031311326081653415160DRYH
2024-08-30 16:00:02FORECAST20243415572.19455.9464.0670001.041.04FF40.194506.194248465.3659369495300.83992935082441643415155DRYH
2024-08-30 12:00:02FORECAST20243415573.16655.77864.4720000.970.97FF41.166513.166248465.3659369495300.859534576643411653415160DRYH
2024-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20243415573.65256.67865.1650000.990.99FF41.652518.652248465.3659369495300.868700658174441653415160DRYH
2024-08-30 04:00:05FORECAST20243415574.5756.49865.5340000.980.98FF42.57519.57248465.3659369495300.884870955723211653415160DRYH
2024-08-30 00:00:03FORECAST20243415571.9657.99264.9760000.970.97FF39.96506.96248465.3659369495300.834955099963411643415155DRYH
2024-08-29 20:00:03FORECAST20243415574.10258.62266.3620001.011.01FF42.102514.102248465.3659369495300.876812813824491653415160DRYH
2024-08-29 16:00:03FORECAST20243415577.1856.58866.8840001.011.01FF45.18527.18248465.3659369495300.923014847911551653415160DRYH
2024-08-29 12:00:03FORECAST20243415575.59656.60666.1010000.990.99FF43.596519.596248465.3659369495300.901212409072731653415160DRYH
2024-08-29 08:00:03FORECAST20243415576.49656.76866.6320000.980.98FF44.496520.496248465.3659369495300.914094811039511653415160DRYH
2024-08-29 04:00:04FORECAST20243415575.18256.04865.6150000.950.95FF43.182519.182248465.3659369495300.894834681843181653415160DRYH
2024-08-29 00:00:03FORECAST20243415574.01255.41864.7150000.950.95FF42.012514.012248465.3659369495300.875219059967311653415160DRYH
2024-08-28 20:00:02FORECAST20243415572.51855.72464.1210000.950.95FF40.518513.518248465.3659369495300.846653652757041643415155DRYH
2024-08-28 16:00:03FORECAST20243415571.04254.91462.9780000.950.95FF39.042503.042248465.3659369495300.814489008336381643415155DRYH
2024-08-28 12:00:03FORECAST20243415571.79853.79862.7980001.011.01FF39.798499.798248465.3659369495300.831453538254251643415155DRYH
2024-08-28 08:00:03FORECAST20243415570.64650.55860.6020001.011.01FF38.646496.646248465.3659369495300.805195245110271643315150DRYMH
2024-08-28 04:00:04FORECAST20243415570.89851.47661.1870000.960.96FF38.898503.898248465.3659369495300.811141699721281643415155DRYH
2024-08-28 00:00:03FORECAST20243415574.82255.4965.1560000.850.85FF42.822508.822248465.3659369495300.889051817436751653415160DRYH
2024-08-27 20:00:03FORECAST20243415574.10255.09464.5980000.850.85FF42.102508.102248465.3659369495300.876812813824491653415160DRYH
2024-08-27 16:00:03FORECAST20243415573.63454.08663.860000.860.86FF41.634501.634248465.3659369495300.868368695204021653415160DRYH
2024-08-27 12:00:04FORECAST20243415572.06855.3163.689000.010.920.93FF40.068493.068248465.3659369495300.837263183632671643315150DRYMH
2024-08-27 08:00:03FORECAST20243415571.63655.20263.419000.010.890.9FF39.636493.636248465.3659369495300.827904695114011643315150DRYMH
2024-08-27 04:00:04FORECAST20243415573.68852.71863.203000.010.970.98FF41.688488.688248465.3659369495300.869362853737621653315155DRYH
2024-08-27 00:00:03FORECAST20243415552.95242.60247.7770001.011.01FF20.952460.952248465.3659369495300.251832325669211623315220DRYL
2024-08-26 20:00:03FORECAST20243415554.08650.03652.0610000.920.92FF22.086467.086248465.3659369495300.284090700084321623315220DRYL
2024-08-26 16:00:03FORECAST20243415557.52449.7353.62700011FF25.524476.524248465.3659369495300.392180646100841623315220DRYL
2024-08-26 12:00:04FORECAST20243415552.21449.7350.9720000.970.97FF20.214472.214248465.3659369495300.23192582215161613315217.5DRYL
2024-08-26 08:00:03FORECAST20243415552.3449.15450.747000.011.011.02FF20.34475.34248465.3659369495300.235261310991613315217.5DRYL
2024-08-26 04:00:06FORECAST20243415552.53851.04451.791000.010.890.9FF20.538471.538248465.3659369495300.240555799812881613315217.5DRYL