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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 7, 2024

[ Tuesday, August 6, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 8, 2024 ]

DAY 312 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/08/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.15°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.738
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 572

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.78 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 219
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 26

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-08-08 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243122670.1499250.5700660.359990001.781.78FF38.14992572.14992219449.92553989522 00.7381662154147116 42415150DRYMH
2024-08-08 00:00:02FORECAST20243122669.24248.4758.8560001.781.78FF37.242571.242220450.4867758200100.707288306816021642415150DRYMH
2024-08-07 12:00:02FORECAST20243122668.2747.91258.0910001.781.78FF36.27570.27220450.4867758200100.672473766816511632415145DRYM
2024-08-07 08:00:01FORECAST20243122668.95448.3858.6670001.781.78FF36.954570.954220450.4867758200100.697152249164291632415145DRYM
2024-08-07 04:00:03FORECAST20243122668.70249.2858.9910001.781.78FF36.702570.702220450.4867758200100.688156592917441632415145DRYM
2024-08-07 00:00:02FORECAST20243122670.1649.04659.6030001.781.78FF38.16574.16219449.9255398952200.7384994311571642415150DRYMH
2024-08-06 20:00:02FORECAST20243122669.1748.09258.6310001.781.78FF37.17573.17219449.9255398952200.704769082320061642415150DRYMH
2024-08-06 16:00:01FORECAST20243122669.02648.50658.7660001.781.78FF37.026573.026219449.9255398952200.699700956419361642415150DRYMH
2024-08-06 12:00:01FORECAST20243122668.86449.85659.360001.781.78FF36.864572.864219449.9255398952200.693952833174311632415145DRYM
2024-08-06 08:00:02FORECAST20243122668.75650.37859.5670001.781.78FF36.756572.756219449.9255398952200.690093947483761632415145DRYM
2024-08-06 04:00:03FORECAST20243122670.35851.06260.710001.781.78FF38.358574.358219449.9255398952200.74500037623051642415150DRYMH
2024-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST20243122669.51250.86460.1880001.781.78FF37.512571.512219449.9255398952200.716645406026691642415150DRYMH
2024-08-05 20:00:01FORECAST20243122669.4449.8259.630001.781.78FF37.44571.44219449.9255398952200.714164231627991642415150DRYMH
2024-08-05 16:00:01FORECAST20243122669.47648.524590001.781.78FF37.476571.476219449.9255398952200.715406108560721642415150DRYMH
2024-08-05 12:00:01FORECAST20243122670.44848.23659.3420001.781.78FF38.448571.448219449.9255398952200.747927190214751642415150DRYMH
2024-08-05 08:00:01FORECAST20243122669.29648.63258.9640001.781.78FF37.296570.296219449.9255398952200.709171155131111642415150DRYMH
2024-08-05 04:00:03FORECAST20243122669.74649.24459.4950001.781.78FF37.746572.746219449.9255398952200.724637204938161642415150DRYMH
2024-08-05 00:00:02FORECAST20243122668.01849.02858.5230001.781.78FF36.018565.018219449.9255398952200.663180631709571632415145DRYM
2024-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20243122668.86448.90258.8830001.781.78FF36.864569.864219449.9255398952200.693952833174311632415145DRYM
2024-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20243122669.09849.78459.4410001.781.78FF37.098571.098219449.9255398952200.70223993340131642415150DRYMH
2024-08-04 12:00:02FORECAST20243122669.11649.38859.2520001.781.78FF37.116569.116219449.9255398952200.702873145800481642415150DRYMH
2024-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20243122669.4449.53259.4860001.781.78FF37.44571.44219449.9255398952200.714164231627991642415150DRYMH
2024-08-04 04:00:05FORECAST20243122667.7348.95658.3430001.781.78FF35.73568.73219449.9255398952200.65243696085561632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20243122665.76848.12856.94800.0074803190.0074803191.781.787480319FF33.768566.768219449.9255398952200.576378699192781632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 20:00:02FORECAST20243122666.32648.32657.3260001.781.78FF34.326569.326219449.9255398952200.59843977548281632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 16:00:02FORECAST20243122666.00248.0257.0110001.781.78FF34.002571.002219449.9255398952200.585663525151611632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 12:00:02FORECAST20243122667.29847.4857.38900.0070866180.0070866181.781.787086618FF35.298571.298219449.9255398952200.636091820016211632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20243122668.19847.37257.78500.0070866180.0070866181.781.787086618FF36.198573.198219449.9255398952200.669829146564691632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 04:00:03FORECAST20243122666.43448.70457.56900.0149606380.0149606381.781.794960638FF34.434572.434219449.9255398952200.602675972103471632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 00:00:02FORECAST20243122667.98248.8358.4060001.781.78FF35.982573.982219449.9255398952200.661844707520451632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 20:00:02FORECAST20243122668.3648.52458.4420001.781.78FF36.36574.36219449.9255398952200.675767407315191632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 16:00:02FORECAST20243122666.39847.98457.19100.0023622060.0023622061.781.782362206FF34.398572.398219449.9255398952200.601265224674981632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20243122665.46246.54456.00300.0015748040.0015748041.781.781574804FF33.462572.462219449.9255398952200.56417351586831632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20243122665.7549.31657.53300.0019685050.0019685051.781.781968505FF33.75574.75219449.9255398952200.57566265292371632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 04:00:04FORECAST20243122667.148.66857.8840001.781.78FF35.1579.1219449.9255398952200.628514604333011632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 00:00:02FORECAST20243122666.5647.6657.110001.781.78FF34.56570.56219449.9255398952200.607602908238281632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20243122666.48847.33656.9120001.781.78FF34.488571.488219449.9255398952200.604789572305271632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 16:00:02FORECAST20243122666.5648.63257.5960001.781.78FF34.56571.56219449.9255398952200.607602908238281632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20243122667.83849.3758.604000.021.781.8FF35.838577.838219449.9255398952200.656480762480221632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 08:00:02FORECAST20243122667.35250.01858.685000.021.781.8FF35.352578.352219449.9255398952200.638149278572321632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 04:00:04FORECAST20243122667.58651.02659.306000.021.781.8FF35.586577.586219449.9255398952200.647018212557451632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 00:00:03FORECAST20243122667.38849.56858.4780001.771.77FF35.388579.388219449.9255398952200.639518707916961632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-31 20:00:03FORECAST20243122668.23447.10257.6680001.771.77FF36.234585.234219449.9255398952200.671152527110781632415145DRYM
2024-07-31 16:00:02FORECAST20243122671.7852.08861.9340001.771.77FF39.78595.78219449.9255398952200.789098834388641642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 12:00:02FORECAST20243122673.54457.18265.3630001.771.77FF41.544602.544219449.9255398952200.837085180570181642515155DRYH
2024-07-31 08:00:03FORECAST20243122670.14255.20262.6720001.771.77FF38.142589.142219449.9255398952200.737904250556681642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 04:00:05FORECAST20243122671.2456.87664.058000.021.771.79FF39.24591.24219449.9255398952200.77290175360391642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 00:00:03FORECAST20243122669.7154.51862.1140001.551.55FF37.71591.71219449.9255398952200.723414941242991642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 20:00:03FORECAST20243122669.92654.57262.2490001.561.56FF37.926590.926219449.9255398952200.730708405607671642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 16:00:03FORECAST20243122668.05452.57460.3140001.561.56FF36.054594.054219449.9255398952200.664514501568141632415145DRYM
2024-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20243122667.78450.8159.297000.011.561.57FF35.784582.784219449.9255398952200.654461063796251632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20243122667.8251.09859.4590001.561.56FF35.82584.82219449.9255398952200.655808022099771632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-30 04:00:05FORECAST20243122667.9148.81258.3610001.561.56FF35.91576.91219449.9255398952200.659166755000861632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20243122668.91851.860.3590000.690.69FF36.918583.918219449.9255398952200.695874277632411632415145DRYM
2024-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20243122670.55652.86261.70900.0114173290.0114173290.740.751417329FF38.556593.556219449.9255398952200.7514158680571642415150DRYMH
2024-07-29 16:00:03FORECAST20243122670.55653.29461.92500.0114173290.0114173290.740.751417329FF38.556588.556219449.9255398952200.7514158680571642415150DRYMH
2024-07-29 12:00:03FORECAST20243122672.03247.96659.9990000.760.76FF40.032585.032219449.9255398952200.796419993462321642415150DRYMH
2024-07-29 08:00:03FORECAST20243122666.70446.70656.7050000.710.71FF34.704572.704219449.9255398952200.61321260920351632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-29 04:00:05FORECAST20243122666.70446.70656.7050000.610.61FF34.704573.704219449.9255398952200.61321260920351632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-29 00:00:04FORECAST20243122657.88446.88652.3850000.740.74FF25.884573.884219449.9255398952200.271557916421261622415220DRYL
2024-07-28 20:00:03FORECAST20243122660.846.88653.8430000.740.74FF28.8581.8219449.9255398952200.377545778793471622415220DRYL
2024-07-28 16:00:03FORECAST20243122658.1946.88652.5380000.720.72FF26.19581.19219449.9255398952200.281960933845171622415220DRYL
2024-07-28 12:00:03FORECAST20243122656.49850.61253.5550000.590.59FF24.498568.498219449.9255398952200.226958167487471612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-28 08:00:03FORECAST20243122648.242.40445.3020000.60.6FF16.2555.2219449.9255398952200.0555916818119181612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-28 04:00:05FORECAST20243122647.80445.1446.4720000.640.64FF15.804559.804219449.9255398952200.051208161348741612415217.5DRYL