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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 6, 2024

[ Monday, August 5, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 7, 2024 ]

DAY 311 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/07/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.13°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.25°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.19°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.398
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 581

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.78 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 218
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 25

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-08-07 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243112561.1299449.2499455.189940001.781.78FF29.12994581.12994218449.36216721666 00.3982545830421716 22415220DRYL
2024-08-07 00:00:02FORECAST20243112563.01446.09454.5540001.781.78FF31.014583.014219449.9255398952200.475293428051921622415220DRYL
2024-08-06 12:00:01FORECAST20243112563.1446.34654.7430001.781.78FF31.14583.14219449.9255398952200.480511915632061622415220DRYL
2024-08-06 08:00:01FORECAST20243112562.99646.25654.6260001.781.78FF30.996582.996219449.9255398952200.474548254731051622415220DRYL
2024-08-06 04:00:03FORECAST20243112563.30246.68854.9950001.781.78FF31.302583.302219449.9255398952200.487226185242781622415220DRYL
2024-08-06 00:00:01FORECAST20243112564.63446.38255.5080001.781.78FF32.634580.634218449.3621672166600.542395930430481632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-05 20:00:01FORECAST20243112565.01246.09455.5530001.781.78FF33.012581.012218449.3621672166600.557950369573491632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-05 16:00:01FORECAST20243112564.6744.81654.7430001.781.78FF32.67580.67218449.3621672166600.543880489573111632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-05 12:00:01FORECAST20243112564.27445.89655.0850001.781.78FF32.274580.274218449.3621672166600.527521195950931632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-05 08:00:01FORECAST20243112564.38245.96855.1750001.781.78FF32.382580.382218449.3621672166600.531988601569521632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-05 04:00:03FORECAST20243112564.63446.70655.670001.781.78FF32.634581.634218449.3621672166600.542395930430481632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-05 00:00:02FORECAST20243112564.41847.31855.8680001.781.78FF32.418576.418218449.3621672166600.533476869976121632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20243112565.73246.74256.2370001.781.78FF33.732579.732218449.3621672166600.587312711170541632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20243112566.63247.80457.2180001.781.78FF34.632580.632218449.3621672166600.623321786412031632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 12:00:02FORECAST20243112566.23647.37256.8040001.781.78FF34.236579.236218449.3621672166600.607589482837111632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 08:00:01FORECAST20243112566.48848.257.3440001.781.78FF34.488581.488218449.3621672166600.617623075985321632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 04:00:04FORECAST20243112565.89448.68657.290001.781.78FF33.894579.894218449.3621672166600.593858500966861632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20243112565.28248.41656.8490001.781.78FF33.282580.282218449.3621672166600.569007651702351632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 20:00:02FORECAST20243112565.42648.68657.0560001.781.78FF33.426582.426218449.3621672166600.574883395623321632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 16:00:02FORECAST20243112565.85849.15457.5060001.781.78FF33.858583.858218449.3621672166600.592406077226011632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 12:00:01FORECAST20243112565.76848.59657.1820001.781.78FF33.768582.768218449.3621672166600.588769499192991632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20243112566.0248.79457.4070001.781.78FF34.02584.02218449.3621672166600.598931697729341632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 04:00:03FORECAST20243112565.60649.65857.6320001.781.78FF33.606584.606218449.3621672166600.582204603964131632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 00:00:02FORECAST20243112566.21848.1157.1640001.781.78FF34.218585.218218449.3621672166600.606869966147031632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 20:00:02FORECAST20243112565.94848.1157.0290001.781.78FF33.948584.948218449.3621672166600.596034711361571632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 16:00:02FORECAST20243112566.30847.96657.1370001.781.78FF34.308585.308218449.3621672166600.610463851428791632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20243112565.33649.33457.3350001.781.78FF33.336586.336218449.3621672166600.57121291869391632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20243112565.55251.42258.4870001.781.78FF33.552587.552218449.3621672166600.58001110949981632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 04:00:03FORECAST20243112565.55251.51258.5320001.781.78FF33.552590.552218449.3621672166600.58001110949981632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 00:00:02FORECAST20243112564.61649.4657.0380001.781.78FF32.616582.616218449.3621672166600.541653427668881632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20243112565.46249.49657.4790001.781.78FF33.462584.462218449.3621672166600.576349789618441632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 16:00:02FORECAST20243112564.7650.75657.7580001.781.78FF32.76583.76218449.3621672166600.547589163723851632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 12:00:02FORECAST20243112565.62450.68458.15400.0173228440.0173228441.781.797322844FF33.624588.624218449.3621672166600.582935204475191632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 08:00:02FORECAST20243112564.95850.61257.78500.0200787510.0200787511.781.800078751FF32.958589.958218449.3621672166600.555733199100281632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 04:00:04FORECAST20243112564.09451.81857.95600.0200787510.0200787511.781.800078751FF32.094589.094218449.3621672166600.520068097706381632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 00:00:03FORECAST20243112565.80453.27659.540001.771.77FF33.804590.804218449.3621672166600.590225064419321632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-31 20:00:02FORECAST20243112567.8251.47659.6480001.771.77FF35.82595.82218449.3621672166600.669213673256241632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-31 16:00:02FORECAST20243112571.22257.16464.1930001.771.77FF39.222603.222218449.3621672166600.785679904382331642515155DRYH
2024-07-31 12:00:02FORECAST20243112575.6559.66667.6580001.771.77FF43.65607.65218449.3621672166600.894774020940151652515160DRYH
2024-07-31 08:00:03FORECAST20243112573.77858.33466.0560001.771.77FF41.778597.778218449.3621672166600.854844492214981652415155DRYH
2024-07-31 04:00:05FORECAST20243112573.59858.87466.236000.021.771.79FF41.598598.598218449.3621672166600.850529560237081652415155DRYH
2024-07-31 00:00:03FORECAST20243112573.3158.20865.759000.011.541.55FF41.31601.31218449.3621672166600.843449786848331642515155DRYH
2024-07-30 20:00:03FORECAST20243112572.64458.49665.57000.011.551.56FF40.644599.644218449.3621672166600.826248081333641642515155DRYH
2024-07-30 16:00:03FORECAST20243112572.37457.32664.85000.011.551.56FF40.374605.374218449.3621672166600.818945140007191642515155DRYH
2024-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20243112570.48453.31261.898000.021.551.57FF38.484594.484218449.3621672166600.762623017184631642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20243112570.35853.13261.745000.011.551.56FF38.358596.358218449.3621672166600.758554909634941642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 04:00:05FORECAST20243112566.43449.74858.091000.011.551.56FF34.434588.434218449.3621672166600.615479401776431632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20243112568.52251.85460.188000.040.650.69FF36.522593.522218449.3621672166600.695232608557611632415145DRYM
2024-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20243112571.52851.65661.592000.040.70.74FF39.528601.528218449.3621672166600.794845092702991642515155DRYH
2024-07-29 16:00:03FORECAST20243112571.45650.82861.142000.040.70.74FF39.456597.456218449.3621672166600.792709750746211642415150DRYMH
2024-07-29 12:00:03FORECAST20243112567.89249.11858.5050000.760.76FF35.892591.892218449.3621672166600.671923033729791632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-29 08:00:03FORECAST20243112567.47848.25457.8660000.710.71FF35.478585.478218449.3621672166600.65622496471131632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-29 04:00:05FORECAST20243112567.9149.3758.640000.610.61FF35.91585.91218449.3621672166600.672598970853961632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-29 00:00:03FORECAST20243112573.79654.08663.9410000.740.74FF41.796594.796218449.3621672166600.855271340763251652415155DRYH
2024-07-28 20:00:03FORECAST20243112575.18257.23666.2090000.740.74FF43.182600.182218449.3621672166600.885625916675191652515160DRYH
2024-07-28 16:00:03FORECAST20243112575.70456.91266.308000.010.710.72FF43.704601.704218449.3621672166600.895794607216231652515160DRYH
2024-07-28 12:00:03FORECAST20243112572.24852.21462.2310000.590.59FF40.248591.248218449.3621672166600.815472392280891642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 08:00:03FORECAST20243112568.43249.08258.7570000.60.6FF36.432586.432218449.3621672166600.691947869333431632415145DRYM
2024-07-28 04:00:05FORECAST20243112568.37848.3858.3790000.640.64FF36.378591.378218449.3621672166600.689969603292451632415145DRYM
2024-07-28 00:00:03FORECAST20243112555.27451.81853.5460000.520.52FF23.274581.274218449.3621672166600.193017983275581612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-27 20:00:03FORECAST20243112555.16647.0351.0980000.550.55FF23.166571.166218449.3621672166600.189954722491881612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-27 16:00:03FORECAST20243112551.3547.40849.3790000.420.42FF19.35570.35218449.3621672166600.101112861121091612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-27 12:00:03FORECAST20243112552.1647.13849.6490000.350.35FF20.16571.16218449.3621672166600.1168489402211612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-27 08:00:03FORECAST20243112553.0647.37250.2160000.350.35FF21.06571.06218449.3621672166600.136277621105351612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20243112551.31449.2850.297000.010.330.34FF19.314559.314218449.3621672166600.100451080379061612415217.5DRYL