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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 5, 2024

[ Sunday, August 4, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 6, 2024 ]

DAY 310 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/06/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.68°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.19°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.739
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 39
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 591

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.78 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 217
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 24

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-08-06 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243102470.753.6799262.189960001.781.78FF38.7590.7217448.79664964921 00.7388535388197316 42415150DRYMH
2024-08-06 00:00:01FORECAST20243102466.70449.29858.0010001.781.78FF34.704586.704218449.3621672166600.589428589196431632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-05 12:00:01FORECAST20243102467.15448.57857.8660001.781.78FF35.154587.154218449.3621672166600.607444882513131632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-05 08:00:01FORECAST20243102467.11849.51458.3160001.781.78FF35.118587.118218449.3621672166600.606011467845561632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-05 04:00:03FORECAST20243102467.67650.21658.9460001.781.78FF35.676587.676218449.3621672166600.628056624443821632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-05 00:00:02FORECAST20243102468.28849.98259.1350001.781.78FF36.288583.288217448.7966496492100.65175916928141632415145DRYM
2024-08-04 20:00:01FORECAST20243102469.69249.67659.6840001.781.78FF37.692584.692217448.7966496492100.703827818920081642415150DRYMH
2024-08-04 16:00:01FORECAST20243102470.12449.29859.7110001.781.78FF38.124585.124217448.7966496492100.719100770261751642415150DRYMH
2024-08-04 12:00:02FORECAST20243102469.04449.51459.2790001.781.78FF37.044584.044217448.7966496492100.680232179583291632415145DRYM
2024-08-04 08:00:01FORECAST20243102469.56650.16259.8640001.781.78FF37.566585.566217448.7966496492100.699302569987641642415150DRYMH
2024-08-04 04:00:04FORECAST20243102469.56650.61260.0890001.781.78FF37.566584.566217448.7966496492100.699302569987641642415150DRYMH
2024-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20243102469.02650.9960.0080001.781.78FF37.026586.026217448.7966496492100.679565616758231632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 20:00:02FORECAST20243102469.27851.13460.2060001.781.78FF37.278588.278217448.7966496492100.688843966287071632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 16:00:02FORECAST20243102469.99851.5360.7640001.781.78FF37.998588.998217448.7966496492100.71468562947951642415150DRYMH
2024-08-03 12:00:01FORECAST20243102469.4450.48659.9630001.781.78FF37.44588.44217448.7966496492100.694746405064351632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20243102469.63850.59460.1160001.781.78FF37.638588.638217448.7966496492100.701892247969231642415150DRYMH
2024-08-03 04:00:03FORECAST20243102469.3551.49460.4220001.781.78FF37.35590.35217448.7966496492100.691473387255711632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 00:00:01FORECAST20243102468.9950.84659.9180001.781.78FF36.99589.99217448.7966496492100.678230755020341632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 20:00:01FORECAST20243102468.64851.29659.9720001.781.78FF36.648589.648217448.7966496492100.665436808837081632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 16:00:02FORECAST20243102468.95451.38660.170001.781.78FF36.954589.954217448.7966496492100.676893590600481632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20243102470.57451.5361.0520001.781.78FF38.574591.574217448.7966496492100.734594293318741642415150DRYMH
2024-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20243102470.10652.64661.3760001.781.78FF38.106593.106217448.7966496492100.718472060302821642415150DRYMH
2024-08-02 04:00:03FORECAST20243102471.63652.5262.0780001.781.78FF39.636595.636217448.7966496492100.769360138199051642415150DRYMH
2024-08-02 00:00:02FORECAST20243102470.89852.82661.8620001.781.78FF38.898588.898217448.7966496492100.745475038274471642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20243102471.20453.07862.1410001.781.78FF39.204590.204217448.7966496492100.755532837851531642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 16:00:01FORECAST20243102471.02454.84262.9330001.781.78FF39.024590.024217448.7966496492100.749642523937561642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 12:00:02FORECAST20243102471.58255.81463.6980001.781.78FF39.582593.582217448.7966496492100.767655942170631642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 08:00:02FORECAST20243102472.44656.73264.5890001.781.78FF40.446596.446217448.7966496492100.794071244255181642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 04:00:03FORECAST20243102471.90656.78664.3460001.781.78FF39.906595.906217448.7966496492100.77777572346741642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 00:00:03FORECAST20243102474.13856.19265.1650001.771.77FF42.138596.138217448.7966496492100.840351357667241642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 20:00:02FORECAST20243102474.96655.38265.1740001.771.77FF42.966598.966217448.7966496492100.860307629430041652415155DRYH
2024-07-31 16:00:02FORECAST20243102476.65857.00266.830001.771.77FF44.658602.658217448.7966496492100.895642497192181652515160DRYH
2024-07-31 12:00:02FORECAST20243102476.78457.8367.3070001.771.77FF44.784602.784217448.7966496492100.897988557104781652515160DRYH
2024-07-31 08:00:02FORECAST20243102474.98457.61466.2990001.771.77FF42.984594.984217448.7966496492100.860721795771061652415155DRYH
2024-07-31 04:00:05FORECAST20243102474.357.70466.00200.0185039470.0185039471.771.788503947FF42.3596.3217448.7966496492100.844395448976671642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20243102474.53457.95666.245000.011.541.55FF42.534598.534217448.7966496492100.850116907667551652415155DRYH
2024-07-30 20:00:03FORECAST20243102473.50858.20865.858000.011.551.56FF41.508597.508217448.7966496492100.823978474316651642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 16:00:02FORECAST20243102473.99457.7465.867000.011.551.56FF41.994603.994217448.7966496492100.836699532200591642515155DRYH
2024-07-30 12:00:02FORECAST20243102471.18654.44662.81600.0070866180.0170866181.551.567086618FF39.186595.186217448.7966496492100.754947180751021642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20243102470.82654.62662.726000.011.551.56FF38.826596.826217448.7966496492100.743077425422441642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 04:00:04FORECAST20243102470.2554.33862.294000.011.551.56FF38.25593.25217448.7966496492100.723482656365481642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 00:00:02FORECAST20243102469.45854.26661.862000.050.640.69FF37.458596.458217448.7966496492100.695399157224351632415145DRYM
2024-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20243102468.59451.72860.161000.040.70.74FF36.594600.594217448.7966496492100.663398554581681632515150DRYMH
2024-07-29 16:00:03FORECAST20243102467.83850.86459.351000.040.70.74FF35.838596.838217448.7966496492100.634382545452281632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-29 12:00:03FORECAST20243102467.62250.01858.820000.760.76FF35.622594.622217448.7966496492100.625940184188811632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-29 08:00:03FORECAST20243102469.60251.20660.4040000.710.71FF37.602588.602217448.7966496492100.700598677412821642415150DRYMH
2024-07-29 04:00:05FORECAST20243102469.99851.38660.6920000.610.61FF37.998588.998217448.7966496492100.71468562947951642415150DRYMH
2024-07-29 00:00:03FORECAST20243102472.19452.35862.2760000.740.74FF40.194592.194217448.7966496492100.786556410820581642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 20:00:03FORECAST20243102473.09455.07664.0850000.740.74FF41.094596.094217448.7966496492100.812661787255461642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 16:00:03FORECAST20243102473.45456.06664.76000.020.70.72FF41.454597.454217448.7966496492100.822527372830841642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 12:00:03FORECAST20243102472.19452.55662.3750000.590.59FF40.194590.194217448.7966496492100.786556410820581642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20243102469.74650.01859.8820000.60.6FF37.746588.746217448.7966496492100.705757609623061642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 04:00:05FORECAST20243102470.66452.17861.4210000.640.64FF38.664593.664217448.7966496492100.737640200948421642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20243102471.2453.40262.3210000.520.52FF39.24597.24217448.7966496492100.756701889676041642415150DRYMH
2024-07-27 20:00:03FORECAST20243102468.37851.87260.1250000.550.55FF36.378587.378217448.7966496492100.655197976942171632415145DRYM
2024-07-27 16:00:03FORECAST20243102468.23450.84659.540000.420.42FF36.234590.234217448.7966496492100.649689861214111632415145DRYM
2024-07-27 12:00:03FORECAST20243102471.09650.07260.5840000.350.35FF39.096590.096217448.7966496492100.752007625933551642415150DRYMH
2024-07-27 08:00:03FORECAST20243102470.08852.21461.1510000.350.35FF38.088589.088217448.7966496492100.717842673098731642415150DRYMH
2024-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20243102468.93646.92257.92900.0141732360.0141732360.330.344173236FF36.936578.936217448.7966496492100.676224149443911632415145DRYM
2024-07-27 00:00:03FORECAST20243102453.76248.09250.927000.010.560.57FF21.762549.762217448.7966496492100.132613195775161612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-26 20:00:03FORECAST20243102453.90647.82250.8640000.580.58FF21.906551.906217448.7966496492100.135840776009181612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-26 16:00:03FORECAST20243102454.01447.44450.72900.0220472560.0320472560.490.522047256FF22.014556.014217448.7966496492100.13829638367971612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-26 12:00:04FORECAST20243102451.36845.3248.3440000.530.53FF19.368559.368217448.7966496492100.0865409399529781612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-26 08:00:03FORECAST20243102457.48851.29654.3920000.560.56FF25.488573.488217448.7966496492100.23326797385981612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-26 04:00:04FORECAST20243102454.55453.07853.8160000.740.74FF22.554565.554217448.7966496492100.151025354443411612415217.5DRYL