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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 4, 2024

[ Saturday, August 3, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, August 5, 2024 ]

DAY 309 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/05/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.47°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.83°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.809
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 592

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.78 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 216
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 23

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-08-05 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243092372.1900451.4700661.830050001.781.78FF40.19004592.19004216448.22897902679 00.8088939528883816 42415150DRYMH
2024-08-05 00:00:02FORECAST20243092367.11849.31658.2170001.781.78FF35.118587.118217448.7966496492100.630044650721991632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 12:00:02FORECAST20243092367.47848.43457.9560001.781.78FF35.478587.478217448.7966496492100.644467309548441632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 08:00:01FORECAST20243092367.92848.9258.4240001.781.78FF35.928587.928217448.7966496492100.662206851167181632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 04:00:04FORECAST20243092366.81249.85658.3340001.781.78FF34.812586.812217448.7966496492100.617639024909541632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20243092368.28850.46859.3780001.781.78FF36.288589.288216448.2289790267900.676145907443341632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 20:00:01FORECAST20243092368.66650.66659.6660001.781.78FF36.666590.666216448.2289790267900.690520547009331632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 16:00:02FORECAST20243092369.02650.75659.8910001.781.78FF37.026591.026216448.2289790267900.703945504888051642415150DRYMH
2024-08-03 12:00:01FORECAST20243092368.91850.70259.810001.781.78FF36.918590.918216448.2289790267900.69994609310841642415150DRYMH
2024-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20243092368.95450.75659.8550001.781.78FF36.954590.954216448.2289790267900.701281942590851642415150DRYMH
2024-08-03 04:00:03FORECAST20243092369.15251.87260.5120001.781.78FF37.152593.152216448.2289790267900.708580341467991642415150DRYMH
2024-08-03 00:00:01FORECAST20243092369.27850.8160.0440001.781.78FF37.278593.278216448.2289790267900.713181076340741642415150DRYMH
2024-08-02 20:00:01FORECAST20243092369.22451.76460.4940001.781.78FF37.224593.224216448.2289790267900.711213545757641642415150DRYMH
2024-08-02 16:00:02FORECAST20243092369.2651.56660.4130001.781.78FF37.26593.26216448.2289790267900.71252593830651642415150DRYMH
2024-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20243092368.952.12460.5120001.781.78FF36.9592.9216448.2289790267900.699277157499661642415150DRYMH
2024-08-02 08:00:02FORECAST20243092368.79253.22261.0070001.781.78FF36.792594.792216448.2289790267900.69524950498011632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 04:00:03FORECAST20243092369.09852.55660.8270001.781.78FF37.098596.098216448.2289790267900.706598124578281642415150DRYMH
2024-08-02 00:00:02FORECAST20243092369.92651.860.8630001.781.78FF37.926589.926216448.2289790267900.736282395824631642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20243092370.28651.27860.7820001.781.78FF38.286591.286216448.2289790267900.748693969181281642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 16:00:01FORECAST20243092369.99853.1561.5740001.781.78FF37.998590.998216448.2289790267900.738789455641681642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 12:00:02FORECAST20243092371.52853.6962.6090001.781.78FF39.528593.528216448.2289790267900.789036728612371642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 08:00:02FORECAST20243092373.02254.60863.8150001.781.78FF41.022596.022216448.2289790267900.832161802605571642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 04:00:03FORECAST20243092372.08655.25663.6710001.781.78FF40.086596.086216448.2289790267900.805851421753761642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 00:00:03FORECAST20243092371.4253.11462.2670001.771.77FF39.42594.42216448.2289790267900.785686548391531642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 20:00:02FORECAST20243092371.27651.76461.5200.0023622060.0023622061.771.772362206FF39.276596.276216448.2289790267900.78117194276221642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 16:00:02FORECAST20243092372.19454.30263.2480001.771.77FF40.194598.194216448.2289790267900.809009179275661642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 12:00:02FORECAST20243092372.37453.56462.9690001.771.77FF40.374598.374216448.2289790267900.814201768293441642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 08:00:02FORECAST20243092372.03254.37463.2030001.771.77FF40.032592.032216448.2289790267900.804260712869741642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 04:00:05FORECAST20243092372.35655.54463.950001.771.77FF40.356594.356216448.2289790267900.813686475765461642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20243092371.9655.41863.68900.0074803190.0074803191.541.547480319FF39.96595.96216448.2289790267900.802127530172661642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 20:00:03FORECAST20243092371.99657.34464.6700.0102362260.0102362261.551.560236226FF39.996595.996216448.2289790267900.803195867981421642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 16:00:02FORECAST20243092372.60855.95864.28300.0114173290.0114173291.551.561417329FF40.608601.608216448.2289790267900.820820096565941642515155DRYH
2024-07-30 12:00:02FORECAST20243092369.9853.09661.53800.0114173290.0114173291.551.561417329FF37.98595.98216448.2289790267900.738163839215311642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 08:00:02FORECAST20243092370.17853.2461.70900.0114173290.0114173291.551.561417329FF38.178598.178216448.2289790267900.745003160118131642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 04:00:04FORECAST20243092369.0853.27661.17800.0074803190.0074803191.551.557480319FF37.08595.08216448.2289790267900.705936001621261642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 00:00:02FORECAST20243092368.86455.27462.06900.0444882130.0544882130.640.694488213FF36.864598.864216448.2289790267900.697937273503631632415145DRYM
2024-07-29 20:00:02FORECAST20243092367.92853.58260.75500.0440945120.0440945120.70.744094512FF35.928603.928216448.2289790267900.662206851167181632515225DRYL
2024-07-29 16:00:03FORECAST20243092367.33453.49260.41300.0413386050.0413386050.70.741338605FF35.334601.334216448.2289790267900.638721682534551632515225DRYL
2024-07-29 12:00:02FORECAST20243092366.75851.5359.1440000.760.76FF34.758598.758216448.2289790267900.615436797183961632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-29 08:00:03FORECAST20243092367.78450.97259.37800.0011811030.0011811030.710.711181103FF35.784590.784216448.2289790267900.656566995588361632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-29 04:00:04FORECAST20243092367.85651.5359.69300.0007874020.0007874020.610.610787402FF35.856590.856216448.2289790267900.659391375325271632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-29 00:00:03FORECAST20243092370.7954.06862.42900.0031496080.0031496080.740.743149608FF38.79591.79216448.2289790267900.765538125003511642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 20:00:03FORECAST20243092371.27655.72463.500.0047244120.0047244120.740.744724412FF39.276595.276216448.2289790267900.78117194276221642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 16:00:03FORECAST20243092371.88856.4864.18400.0070866180.0170866180.70.717086618FF39.888595.888216448.2289790267900.799980393300531642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 12:00:03FORECAST20243092373.59853.47463.5360000.590.59FF41.598589.598216448.2289790267900.847156513710741642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20243092372.1452.71862.4290000.60.6FF40.14591.14216448.2289790267900.807434248288441642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 04:00:05FORECAST20243092372.98654.44663.7160000.640.64FF40.986594.986216448.2289790267900.831194272590881642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20243092372.89656.22864.5620000.520.52FF40.896597.896216448.2289790267900.828759842276371642415150DRYMH
2024-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20243092370.5253.09661.8080000.550.55FF38.52590.52216448.2289790267900.756592955851041642415150DRYMH
2024-07-27 16:00:03FORECAST20243092370.98851.29661.1420000.420.42FF38.988593.988216448.2289790267900.771980769344211642415150DRYMH
2024-07-27 12:00:03FORECAST20243092369.85451.5360.6920000.350.35FF37.854590.854216448.2289790267900.733763136764411642415150DRYMH
2024-07-27 08:00:03FORECAST20243092369.36853.31261.340000.350.35FF37.368591.368216448.2289790267900.716446118194981642415150DRYMH
2024-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20243092366.90252.8859.8910000.330.33FF34.902581.902216448.2289790267900.621300933543111632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-27 00:00:03FORECAST20243092367.94651.45859.70200.0074803190.0074803190.560.567480319FF35.946567.946216448.2289790267900.662909312729321632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-26 20:00:03FORECAST20243092367.74851.06259.4050000.580.58FF35.748569.748216448.2289790267900.655151510186551632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-26 16:00:03FORECAST20243092368.73850.1859.45900.0086614220.0086614220.490.498661422FF36.738573.738216448.2289790267900.693226735558641632415145DRYM
2024-07-26 12:00:03FORECAST20243092367.69448.68658.190000.530.53FF35.694579.694216448.2289790267900.653024211946041632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-26 08:00:03FORECAST20243092375.61448.27261.9430000.560.56FF43.614587.614216448.2289790267900.892494386338041652415155DRYH
2024-07-26 04:00:04FORECAST20243092375.61445.91460.7640000.740.74FF43.614582.614216448.2289790267900.892494386338041652415155DRYH
2024-07-26 00:00:03FORECAST20243092350.84646.09448.470000.970.97FF18.846552.846216448.2289790267900.0797324323413171612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-25 20:00:03FORECAST20243092354.78845.39250.090001.041.04FF22.788550.788216448.2289790267900.162260124308541612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-25 16:00:03FORECAST20243092354.78844.79849.7930000.820.82FF22.788549.788216448.2289790267900.162260124308541612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-25 12:00:03FORECAST20243092345.33837.77841.558000.030.850.88FF13.338546.338216448.2289790267900.0228874377977321612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-25 08:00:03FORECAST20243092348.09242.78245.437000.030.770.8FF16.092552.092216448.2289790267900.0443836642288991612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-25 04:00:05FORECAST20243092347.42645.08646.256000.060.961.02FF15.426547.426216448.2289790267900.0380844435815981612415217.5DRYL