MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 3, 2024

[ Friday, August 2, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 4, 2024 ]

DAY 308 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/04/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 55.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.42°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.580
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 594

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.78 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 215
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.66 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 22

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-08-04 04:00:03OBSERVATION20243082265.8000455.0460.420020001.781.78FF33.80004593.80004215447.65914715223 00.5797864156160916 32415222.5DRYL
2024-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20243082267.08253.36660.2240001.781.78FF35.082595.082216448.2289790267900.631687910871421632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 12:00:01FORECAST20243082268.39653.22260.8090001.781.78FF36.396596.396216448.2289790267900.682493756048061632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20243082268.37853.16860.7730001.781.78FF36.378596.378216448.2289790267900.681817888317031632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 04:00:03FORECAST20243082270.28654.24862.2670001.781.78FF38.286598.286216448.2289790267900.749750405087941642415150DRYMH
2024-08-03 00:00:01FORECAST20243082269.90853.29461.6010001.781.78FF37.908597.908215447.6591471522300.736926326791921642415150DRYMH
2024-08-02 20:00:01FORECAST20243082269.9853.8761.9250001.781.78FF37.98597.98215447.6591471522300.739394609471931642415150DRYMH
2024-08-02 16:00:02FORECAST20243082269.90854.0561.9790001.781.78FF37.908597.908215447.6591471522300.736926326791921642415150DRYMH
2024-08-02 12:00:01FORECAST20243082270.3454.33862.3390001.781.78FF38.34598.34215447.6591471522300.751555011681521642415150DRYMH
2024-08-02 08:00:02FORECAST20243082270.66456.64263.6530001.781.78FF38.664599.664215447.6591471522300.762235672808581642515155DRYH
2024-08-02 04:00:03FORECAST20243082271.09655.79663.4460001.781.78FF39.096601.096215447.6591471522300.776076620704091642515155DRYH
2024-08-02 00:00:02FORECAST20243082270.05253.81661.9340001.781.78FF38.052594.052215447.6591471522300.741850932468421642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 20:00:01FORECAST20243082270.19653.72661.9610001.781.78FF38.196595.196215447.6591471522300.746727372652311642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 16:00:01FORECAST20243082269.99854.15862.0780001.781.78FF37.998594.998215447.6591471522300.740009814680211642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 12:00:02FORECAST20243082271.38453.61862.5010001.781.78FF39.384596.384215447.6591471522300.785044120522381642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 08:00:01FORECAST20243082271.67255.5863.6260001.781.78FF39.672596.672215447.6591471522300.793799869832071642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 04:00:03FORECAST20243082271.655.34663.4730001.781.78FF39.6597.6215447.6591471522300.791630946944151642415150DRYMH
2024-08-01 00:00:02FORECAST20243082270.0754.15862.1140001.771.77FF38.07597.07215447.6591471522300.742463134852621642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 20:00:02FORECAST20243082271.31253.36662.3390001.771.77FF39.312599.312215447.6591471522300.782821976371281642515155DRYH
2024-07-31 16:00:01FORECAST20243082271.54654.563.0230001.771.77FF39.546599.546215447.6591471522300.789995476945811642515155DRYH
2024-07-31 12:00:01FORECAST20243082270.55655.27462.9150001.771.77FF38.556599.556215447.6591471522300.758703648119141642515155DRYH
2024-07-31 08:00:02FORECAST20243082269.27854.48261.880001.771.77FF37.278594.278215447.6591471522300.714832046468971642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 04:00:04FORECAST20243082270.9753.85262.4110001.771.77FF38.97595.97215447.6591471522300.772087579114161642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20243082269.69255.0462.3660001.541.54FF37.692597.692215447.6591471522300.729450568632471642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 20:00:02FORECAST20243082269.58455.0462.3120001.551.55FF37.584597.584215447.6591471522300.725673345059511642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 16:00:02FORECAST20243082271.56455.83263.6980001.551.55FF39.564602.564215447.6591471522300.790541468264951642515155DRYH
2024-07-30 12:00:02FORECAST20243082270.14256.4863.31100.0031496080.0031496081.551.553149608FF38.142600.142215447.6591471522300.744904392950741642515155DRYH
2024-07-30 08:00:02FORECAST20243082270.4357.3863.90500.0035433090.0035433091.551.553543309FF38.43602.43215447.6591471522300.754547233329611642515155DRYH
2024-07-30 04:00:04FORECAST20243082269.09857.21863.15800.0019685050.0019685051.551.551968505FF37.098600.098215447.6591471522300.708360959654241642515155DRYH
2024-07-30 00:00:02FORECAST20243082270.7957.52464.15700.0137795350.0137795350.640.653779535FF38.79603.79215447.6591471522300.766320329924241642515155DRYH
2024-07-29 20:00:02FORECAST20243082273.54456.89465.2190000.70.7FF41.544609.544215447.6591471522300.845398005524241642515155DRYH
2024-07-29 16:00:02FORECAST20243082273.09457.0265.0570000.70.7FF41.094608.094215447.6591471522300.83384658339861642515155DRYH
2024-07-29 12:00:02FORECAST20243082271.67257.21864.4450000.760.76FF39.672605.672215447.6591471522300.793799869832071642515155DRYH
2024-07-29 08:00:03FORECAST20243082269.56656.10262.8340000.710.71FF37.566596.566215447.6591471522300.725041288930731642415150DRYMH
2024-07-29 04:00:04FORECAST20243082269.76456.35463.0590000.610.61FF37.764596.764215447.6591471522300.73195421980451642415150DRYMH
2024-07-29 00:00:03FORECAST20243082272.24857.45264.850000.740.74FF40.248595.248215447.6591471522300.810665238391781642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 20:00:02FORECAST20243082271.58258.49665.0390000.740.74FF39.582597.582215447.6591471522300.791086625155821642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 16:00:03FORECAST20243082274.33660.13467.23500.0066929170.0066929170.70.706692917FF42.336598.336215447.6591471522300.864412548655941652415155DRYH
2024-07-28 12:00:03FORECAST20243082270.59257.88464.2380000.590.59FF38.592589.592215447.6591471522300.759884142696451642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20243082271.58256.55264.0670000.60.6FF39.582592.582215447.6591471522300.791086625155821642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 04:00:04FORECAST20243082271.67258.11864.8950000.640.64FF39.672595.672215447.6591471522300.793799869832071642415150DRYMH
2024-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20243082274.85858.7366.7940000.520.52FF42.858598.858215447.6591471522300.876033672473751652415155DRYH
2024-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20243082272.4157.30864.8590000.550.55FF40.41594.41215447.6591471522300.815251517895381642415150DRYMH
2024-07-27 16:00:03FORECAST20243082272.55457.00264.7780000.420.42FF40.554596.554215447.6591471522300.819269834839381642415150DRYMH
2024-07-27 12:00:02FORECAST20243082270.98856.363.6440000.350.35FF38.988594.988215447.6591471522300.772659874075131642415150DRYMH
2024-07-27 08:00:03FORECAST20243082271.90657.39864.6520000.350.35FF39.906595.906215447.6591471522300.80075602716581642415150DRYMH
2024-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20243082271.58256.28263.9320000.330.33FF39.582588.582215447.6591471522300.791086625155821642415150DRYMH
2024-07-27 00:00:03FORECAST20243082269.6251.65660.6380000.560.56FF37.62573.62215447.6591471522300.726935304035131642415150DRYMH
2024-07-26 20:00:03FORECAST20243082269.13452.1660.6470000.580.58FF37.134576.134215447.6591471522300.709660634332621642415150DRYMH
2024-07-26 16:00:02FORECAST20243082269.00852.75460.8810000.490.49FF37.008579.008215447.6591471522300.705099976619251642415150DRYMH
2024-07-26 12:00:03FORECAST20243082269.11653.79861.4570000.530.53FF37.116586.116215447.6591471522300.709011135664061642415150DRYMH
2024-07-26 08:00:03FORECAST20243082268.50452.41260.4580000.560.56FF36.504585.504215447.6591471522300.68653614364351632415145DRYM
2024-07-26 04:00:04FORECAST20243082265.71450.86458.2890000.740.74FF33.714580.714215447.6591471522300.576241624307311632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-26 00:00:03FORECAST20243082264.05849.20856.6330000.970.97FF32.058576.058215447.6591471522300.507150782711632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-25 20:00:03FORECAST20243082263.98648.99256.4890001.041.04FF31.986569.986215447.6591471522300.504126719914211632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-25 16:00:03FORECAST20243082264.36448.43456.3990000.820.82FF32.364569.364215447.6591471522300.519996366911761632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-25 12:00:03FORECAST20243082264.18443.55653.8700.0027559070.0327559070.850.882755907FF32.184575.184215447.6591471522300.51244179935471632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-25 08:00:03FORECAST20243082267.7347.46257.59600.0027559070.0327559070.770.802755907FF35.73577.73215447.6591471522300.657098472302621632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-25 04:00:05FORECAST20243082267.92843.755.81400.0051181130.0551181130.961.015118113FF35.928573.928215447.6591471522300.66472942075071632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-25 00:00:03FORECAST20243082259.19851.06255.130000.710.71FF27.198566.198215447.6591471522300.310725115060191622415220DRYL
2024-07-24 20:00:03FORECAST20243082253.58247.42650.5040000.550.55FF21.582555.582215447.6591471522300.138884957198861612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-24 16:00:03FORECAST20243082253.47448.7451.1070000.520.52FF21.474564.474215447.6591471522300.136380666829481612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-24 12:00:03FORECAST20243082252.39447.51649.9550000.480.48FF20.394573.394215447.6591471522300.113028265454441612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-24 08:00:03FORECAST20243082253.85248.14650.9990000.220.22FF21.852574.852215447.6591471522300.145281598394011612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-24 04:00:05FORECAST20243082252.82649.9151.3680000.220.22FF20.826575.826215447.6591471522300.122002899806891612415217.5DRYL