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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 2, 2024

[ Thursday, August 1, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 3, 2024 ]

DAY 307 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/03/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.48°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 59.75°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 66.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.823
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 606

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.77 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 214
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.09 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 21

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-08-03 04:00:02OBSERVATION20243072172.4800259.7500666.11504000.011.771.78FF40.48002606.48002214447.08714579714 00.8228641807484316 42515155DRYH
2024-08-03 00:00:01FORECAST20243072172.19458.65865.426000.011.771.78FF40.194606.194215447.6591471522300.813917748771041642515155DRYH
2024-08-02 12:00:01FORECAST20243072172.44658.42465.435000.011.771.78FF40.446606.446215447.6591471522300.821814500170611642515155DRYH
2024-08-02 08:00:02FORECAST20243072173.1359.88266.506000.011.771.78FF41.13607.13215447.6591471522300.842167028718911642515155DRYH
2024-08-02 04:00:03FORECAST20243072174.13859.68466.911000.011.771.78FF42.138608.138215447.6591471522300.86927175183241652515160DRYH
2024-08-02 00:00:01FORECAST20243072174.08458.5566.317000.011.771.78FF42.084602.084214447.0871457971400.867906526999731652515160DRYH
2024-08-01 20:00:01FORECAST20243072174.26458.62266.443000.011.771.78FF42.264603.264214447.0871457971400.872419360535791652515160DRYH
2024-08-01 16:00:01FORECAST20243072173.50858.76666.137000.011.771.78FF41.508602.508214447.0871457971400.852733861339411652515160DRYH
2024-08-01 12:00:02FORECAST20243072174.22859.03666.632000.011.771.78FF42.228603.228214447.0871457971400.871525453021961652515160DRYH
2024-08-01 08:00:01FORECAST20243072174.37260.38667.379000.011.771.78FF42.372603.372214447.0871457971400.875075179066371652515160DRYH
2024-08-01 04:00:03FORECAST20243072174.76860.22467.496000.011.771.78FF42.768603.768214447.0871457971400.884482755799281652515160DRYH
2024-08-01 00:00:02FORECAST20243072175.05658.67666.8660001.771.77FF43.056605.056214447.0871457971400.891001811138741652515160DRYH
2024-07-31 20:00:02FORECAST20243072175.59658.71267.1540001.771.77FF43.596605.596214447.0871457971400.902506105766551652515160DRYH
2024-07-31 16:00:01FORECAST20243072176.06460.6268.3420001.771.77FF44.064606.064214447.0871457971400.911736162747731652515160DRYH
2024-07-31 12:00:01FORECAST20243072176.7360.36868.5490001.771.77FF44.73606.73214447.0871457971400.923729539137781652515160DRYH
2024-07-31 08:00:02FORECAST20243072174.98459.48667.2350001.771.77FF42.984602.984214447.0871457971400.889397309986561652515160DRYH
2024-07-31 04:00:04FORECAST20243072174.55259.70267.1270001.771.77FF42.552602.552214447.0871457971400.879415498270861652515160DRYH
2024-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20243072174.82259.75667.2890001.541.54FF42.822605.822214447.0871457971400.885725655293531652515160DRYH
2024-07-30 20:00:02FORECAST20243072174.89460.2667.5770001.551.55FF42.894605.894214447.0871457971400.887368045653331652515160DRYH
2024-07-30 16:00:02FORECAST20243072175.99260.40468.1980001.551.55FF43.992608.992214447.0871457971400.910360023828681652515160DRYH
2024-07-30 12:00:02FORECAST20243072175.41660.15267.7840001.551.55FF43.416608.416214447.0871457971400.898774354350941652515160DRYH
2024-07-30 08:00:02FORECAST20243072175.84860.92668.3870001.551.55FF43.848609.848214447.0871457971400.907560159605811652515160DRYH
2024-07-30 04:00:04FORECAST20243072175.25461.57468.4140001.551.55FF43.254609.254214447.0871457971400.895328024094221652515160DRYH
2024-07-30 00:00:02FORECAST20243072175.79460.65668.2250000.640.64FF43.794610.794214447.0871457971400.906493751384321652515160DRYH
2024-07-29 20:00:02FORECAST20243072176.67660.8968.7830000.70.7FF44.676613.676214447.0871457971400.922805710575781652515160DRYH
2024-07-29 16:00:02FORECAST20243072177.10860.74668.9270000.70.7FF45.108613.108214447.0871457971400.929963087143891652515160DRYH
2024-07-29 12:00:02FORECAST20243072178.3560.24269.2960000.760.76FF46.35612.35214447.0871457971400.947718692410661652515160DRYH
2024-07-29 08:00:02FORECAST20243072177.3660.09868.7290000.710.71FF45.36605.36214447.0871457971400.933896646808031652515160DRYH
2024-07-29 04:00:04FORECAST20243072176.31660.868.5580000.610.61FF44.316605.316214447.0871457971400.916429118279611652515160DRYH
2024-07-29 00:00:03FORECAST20243072176.26258.24467.2530000.740.74FF44.262601.262214447.0871457971400.915439554593221652515160DRYH
2024-07-28 20:00:02FORECAST20243072176.58659.79268.1890000.740.74FF44.586603.586214447.0871457971400.921247203464221652515160DRYH
2024-07-28 16:00:02FORECAST20243072177.39660.02668.7110000.70.7FF45.396602.396214447.0871457971400.934444378447671652515160DRYH
2024-07-28 12:00:02FORECAST20243072176.92857.7467.3340000.590.59FF44.928596.928214447.0871457971400.927045261533271652415155DRYH
2024-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20243072177.1857.07467.127000.010.590.6FF45.18599.18214447.0871457971400.931104842086211652515160DRYH
2024-07-28 04:00:04FORECAST20243072178.42258.22668.324000.010.630.64FF46.422602.422214447.0871457971400.948627167035131652515160DRYH
2024-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20243072176.7358.22667.4780000.520.52FF44.73601.73214447.0871457971400.923729539137781652515160DRYH
2024-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20243072175.72257.9266.8210000.550.55FF43.722599.722214447.0871457971400.905057824314341652515160DRYH
2024-07-27 16:00:03FORECAST20243072175.90258.08266.9920000.420.42FF43.902601.902214447.0871457971400.908617571880331652515160DRYH
2024-07-27 12:00:02FORECAST20243072176.17257.52466.8480000.350.35FF44.172602.172214447.0871457971400.91377085581391652515160DRYH
2024-07-27 08:00:03FORECAST20243072176.67656.87666.7760000.350.35FF44.676601.676214447.0871457971400.922805710575781652515160DRYH
2024-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20243072174.71455.00464.8590000.330.33FF42.714594.714214447.0871457971400.88323031158551652415155DRYH
2024-07-27 00:00:03FORECAST20243072169.94451.49460.719000.020.540.56FF37.944581.944214447.0871457971400.734257837288341642415150DRYMH
2024-07-26 20:00:02FORECAST20243072172.21251.22461.718000.020.560.58FF40.212585.212214447.0871457971400.814488878809641642415150DRYMH
2024-07-26 16:00:02FORECAST20243072172.30252.0762.1860000.490.49FF40.302588.302214447.0871457971400.817328217862411642415150DRYMH
2024-07-26 12:00:03FORECAST20243072174.89455.7665.3270000.530.53FF42.894594.894214447.0871457971400.887368045653331652415155DRYH
2024-07-26 08:00:02FORECAST20243072173.99455.43664.7150000.560.56FF41.994594.994214447.0871457971400.865609434068511652415155DRYH
2024-07-26 04:00:04FORECAST20243072173.45454.9564.2020000.740.74FF41.454593.454214447.0871457971400.851253971418581652415155DRYH
2024-07-26 00:00:03FORECAST20243072171.00652.66461.835000.050.920.97FF39.006590.006214447.0871457971400.773855632142921642415150DRYMH
2024-07-25 20:00:03FORECAST20243072169.83651.27860.557000.050.991.04FF37.836583.836214447.0871457971400.730042984092291642415150DRYMH
2024-07-25 16:00:03FORECAST20243072167.69448.3858.037000.070.750.82FF35.694582.694214447.0871457971400.640246877448251632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-25 12:00:02FORECAST20243072165.8448.77657.30800.0334645850.0934645850.790.883464585FF33.84588.84214447.0871457971400.555446234122271632425245DRYM
2024-07-25 08:00:03FORECAST20243072165.28247.96656.62400.0342519870.0942519870.710.804251987FF33.282588.282214447.0871457971400.529222302274581632425245DRYM
2024-07-25 04:00:05FORECAST20243072165.49848.72257.1100.0543307380.1243307380.891.014330738FF33.498584.498214447.0871457971400.539394872013891632425245DRYM
2024-07-25 00:00:03FORECAST20243072170.05250.48660.2690000.710.71FF38.052585.052214447.0871457971400.738439113632121642415150DRYMH
2024-07-24 20:00:03FORECAST20243072166.8348.09257.461000.030.520.55FF34.83579.83214447.0871457971400.601310568491591632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-24 16:00:03FORECAST20243072167.83849.26258.55000.030.490.52FF35.838588.838214447.0871457971400.646609162673511632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-24 12:00:03FORECAST20243072170.12452.68261.403000.010.470.48FF38.124599.124214447.0871457971400.741207774390811642515155DRYH
2024-07-24 08:00:03FORECAST20243072173.18446.6759.9270000.220.22FF41.184599.184214447.0871457971400.843706249147381642515155DRYH
2024-07-24 04:00:05FORECAST20243072173.18446.6759.9270000.220.22FF41.184601.184214447.0871457971400.843706249147381642515155DRYH
2024-07-24 00:00:03FORECAST20243072151.24243.55647.3990000.040.04FF19.242588.242214447.0871457971400.0557412194956261612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-23 20:00:02FORECAST20243072156.9350.46853.6990000.040.04FF24.93591.93214447.0871457971400.179718831358011612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-23 16:00:03FORECAST20243072157.0250.97253.9960000.020.02FF25.02612.02214447.0871457971400.182529568803771612515220DRYL
2024-07-23 12:00:04FORECAST20243072151.49446.83249.1630000.030.03FF19.494611.494214447.0871457971400.0591897995727031612515220DRYL
2024-07-23 08:00:04FORECAST20243072150.50448.3849.4420000.360.36FF18.504576.504214447.0871457971400.046545323347631612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-23 04:00:06FORECAST20243072150.50448.3849.4420000.330.33FF18.504579.504214447.0871457971400.046545323347631612415217.5DRYL