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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 8, 2024

[ Wednesday, August 7, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, August 9, 2024 ]

DAY 313 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/09/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 73.82°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 60.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 67.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.816
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 42
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 573

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.78 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 220
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 27

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-08-09 04:00:02OBSERVATION20243132773.8199460.8199867.319960001.781.78FF41.81994572.81994220450.48677582001 00.8163801953794916 42415150DRYMH
2024-08-09 00:00:01FORECAST20243132770.23251.5360.8810001.781.78FF38.232569.232221451.0458830952800.715233514230911642415150DRYMH
2024-08-08 12:00:01FORECAST20243132770.64652.5261.5830001.781.78FF38.646569.646221451.0458830952800.728123443899991642415150DRYMH
2024-08-08 08:00:02FORECAST20243132770.7952.12461.4570001.781.78FF38.79569.79221451.0458830952800.732537945241131642415150DRYMH
2024-08-08 04:00:03FORECAST20243132771.13252.5261.8260001.781.78FF39.132570.132221451.0458830952800.742875650563761642415150DRYMH
2024-08-08 00:00:02FORECAST20243132772.57252.82662.6990001.781.78FF40.572570.572220450.4867758200100.784021062015511642415150DRYMH
2024-08-07 20:00:01FORECAST20243132772.12252.84462.4830001.781.78FF40.122569.122220450.4867758200100.771589125802481642415150DRYMH
2024-08-07 16:00:01FORECAST20243132771.79852.3462.0690001.781.78FF39.798568.798220450.4867758200100.762395094424161642415150DRYMH
2024-08-07 12:00:02FORECAST20243132770.86253.662.2310001.781.78FF38.862567.862220450.4867758200100.734731577144851642415150DRYMH
2024-08-07 08:00:01FORECAST20243132771.6954.17662.9330001.781.78FF39.69569.69220450.4867758200100.759285959386451642415150DRYMH
2024-08-07 04:00:03FORECAST20243132771.22254.3262.7710001.781.78FF39.222569.222220450.4867758200100.745561197370691642415150DRYMH
2024-08-07 00:00:02FORECAST20243132771.11455.16663.140001.781.78FF39.114572.114220450.4867758200100.742336780339531642415150DRYMH
2024-08-06 20:00:02FORECAST20243132770.28654.66262.4740001.781.78FF38.286570.286220450.4867758200100.716931209145131642415150DRYMH
2024-08-06 16:00:01FORECAST20243132769.9855.29262.6360001.781.78FF37.98569.98220450.4867758200100.707247432354231642415150DRYMH
2024-08-06 12:00:01FORECAST20243132769.72855.18462.4560001.781.78FF37.728569.728220450.4867758200100.69915899059791642415150DRYMH
2024-08-06 08:00:02FORECAST20243132769.54854.78862.1680001.781.78FF37.548569.548220450.4867758200100.69332060342881632415145DRYM
2024-08-06 04:00:04FORECAST20243132770.21454.7762.4920001.781.78FF38.214571.214220450.4867758200100.71466653926241642415150DRYMH
2024-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST20243132769.74654.73462.240001.781.78FF37.746568.746220450.4867758200100.699740064664221642415150DRYMH
2024-08-05 20:00:01FORECAST20243132770.62853.9662.2940001.781.78FF38.628568.628220450.4867758200100.727569096294141642415150DRYMH
2024-08-05 16:00:01FORECAST20243132770.77253.65462.2130001.781.78FF38.772568.772220450.4867758200100.731988113133591642415150DRYMH
2024-08-05 12:00:01FORECAST20243132770.35853.58261.970001.781.78FF38.358568.358220450.4867758200100.719187226258481642415150DRYMH
2024-08-05 08:00:01FORECAST20243132770.17853.36661.7720001.781.78FF38.178567.178220450.4867758200100.713530980731691642415150DRYMH
2024-08-05 04:00:04FORECAST20243132770.50253.83462.1680001.781.78FF38.502570.502220450.4867758200100.72367303547551642415150DRYMH
2024-08-05 00:00:03FORECAST20243132770.3452.66461.5020001.781.78FF38.34562.34220450.4867758200100.718624036855421642415150DRYMH
2024-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20243132771.36653.2462.3030001.781.78FF39.366568.366220450.4867758200100.749827346258441642415150DRYMH
2024-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20243132771.653.45662.5280001.781.78FF39.6569.6220450.4867758200100.756678219778191642415150DRYMH
2024-08-04 12:00:02FORECAST20243132770.14253.3361.73600.0055118140.0055118141.781.785511814FF38.142566.142220450.4867758200100.712393284576131642415150DRYMH
2024-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20243132772.01453.85262.93300.0090551230.0090551231.781.789055123FF40.014570.014220450.4867758200100.768546824050791642415150DRYMH
2024-08-04 04:00:05FORECAST20243132769.40453.16861.28600.0043307110.0043307111.781.784330711FF37.404565.404220450.4867758200100.688614250059651632415145DRYM
2024-08-04 00:00:03FORECAST20243132766.84852.10659.47700.003937010.013937011.781.79393701FF34.848560.848220450.4867758200100.600568567748161632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 20:00:02FORECAST20243132767.56852.32259.94500.0007874020.0007874021.781.780787402FF35.568563.568220450.4867758200100.626125463445461632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 16:00:02FORECAST20243132766.81252.62859.7200.0007874020.0007874021.781.780787402FF34.812564.812220450.4867758200100.599278321051371632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 12:00:02FORECAST20243132768.97251.15260.062000.011.781.79FF36.972566.972220450.4867758200100.674311770448521632415145DRYM
2024-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20243132767.74851.22459.486000.011.781.79FF35.748567.748220450.4867758200100.632433818571031632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 04:00:03FORECAST20243132766.7451.81859.279000.011.781.79FF34.74565.74220450.4867758200100.596694589875291632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-03 00:00:02FORECAST20243132768.5451.58460.0620001.781.78FF36.54569.54220450.4867758200100.659748171003221632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 20:00:02FORECAST20243132768.84651.65660.25100.0019685050.0019685051.781.781968505FF36.846569.846220450.4867758200100.67009020466621632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 16:00:02FORECAST20243132768.1850.64859.41400.0019685050.0019685051.781.781968505FF36.18567.18220450.4867758200100.647426033810551632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20243132767.60448.45258.02800.0059055150.0059055151.781.785905515FF35.604566.604220450.4867758200100.627389901246011632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20243132766.72249.94658.33400.015748040.015748041.781.79574804FF34.722568.722220450.4867758200100.596047992391521632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-02 04:00:04FORECAST20243132768.32450.64859.48600.0070866180.0070866181.781.787086618FF36.324574.324220450.4867758200100.652374339801891632415145DRYM
2024-08-02 00:00:03FORECAST20243132768.1851.20659.6930001.781.78FF36.18566.18220450.4867758200100.647426033810551632415145DRYM
2024-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20243132767.94650.61259.2790001.781.78FF35.946565.946220450.4867758200100.639331925514441632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 16:00:02FORECAST20243132768.1851.54859.8640001.781.78FF36.18567.18220450.4867758200100.647426033810551632415145DRYM
2024-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20243132769.2651.24260.251000.021.781.8FF37.26574.26220450.4867758200100.683876894393071632415145DRYM
2024-08-01 08:00:02FORECAST20243132768.52252.1660.341000.021.781.8FF36.522573.522220450.4867758200100.659135964059771632415145DRYM
2024-08-01 04:00:04FORECAST20243132767.47851.92659.702000.021.781.8FF35.478572.478220450.4867758200100.622958454396471632415222.5DRYL
2024-08-01 00:00:03FORECAST20243132768.7249.51459.1170001.771.77FF36.72574.72220450.4867758200100.665846879024661632415145DRYM
2024-07-31 20:00:03FORECAST20243132769.76450.37860.0710001.771.77FF37.764581.764220450.4867758200100.700320631334871642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 16:00:02FORECAST20243132771.88856.44464.1660001.771.77FF39.888594.888220450.4867758200100.764969141503871642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 12:00:02FORECAST20243132771.1557.12864.13900.0271653690.0271653691.771.797165369FF39.15601.15220450.4867758200100.743413934973511642515155DRYH
2024-07-31 08:00:03FORECAST20243132768.73853.49261.11500.0283464720.0283464721.771.798346472FF36.738584.738220450.4867758200100.666454382935261632415145DRYM
2024-07-31 04:00:06FORECAST20243132770.8855.463.1400.0279527710.0279527711.791.817952771FF38.88588.88220450.4867758200100.735278556333621642415150DRYMH
2024-07-31 00:00:03FORECAST20243132769.00853.02461.0160001.551.55FF37.008588.008220450.4867758200100.675513870654981632415145DRYM
2024-07-30 20:00:03FORECAST20243132769.13454.48261.8080001.561.56FF37.134587.134220450.4867758200100.679706783147341632415145DRYM
2024-07-30 16:00:03FORECAST20243132772.7752.75462.7620001.561.56FF40.77593.77220450.4867758200100.789364698743321642415150DRYMH
2024-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20243132768.3649.87459.1170001.571.57FF36.36578.36220450.4867758200100.653607412281851632415145DRYM
2024-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20243132766.63249.76658.1990001.561.56FF34.632578.632220450.4867758200100.59281110157591632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-30 04:00:05FORECAST20243132767.2849.17258.2260001.561.56FF35.28571.28220450.4867758200100.615962133515441632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20243132753.58246.86850.2250000.690.69FF21.582564.582220450.4867758200100.16455241099811612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20243132754.3249.0151.665000.010.740.75FF22.32575.32220450.4867758200100.182092944758671612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-29 16:00:03FORECAST20243132754.3249.0151.665000.010.740.75FF22.32570.32220450.4867758200100.182092944758671612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-29 12:00:03FORECAST20243132753.29447.78650.540000.760.76FF21.294565.294220450.4867758200100.158014006700971612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-29 08:00:04FORECAST20243132750.23445.08647.660000.710.71FF18.234550.234220450.4867758200100.0990729632461811612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-29 04:00:05FORECAST20243132749.35247.35448.3530000.610.61FF17.352550.352220450.4867758200100.0855268718082121612415217.5DRYL