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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 18, 2024

[ Wednesday, July 17, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, July 19, 2024 ]

DAY 292 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/19/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.34°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 63.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.826
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 596

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 199
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.24 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 6

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-07-19 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024292672.3399854.4200863.380030000.010.01FF40.33998596.33998199438.24109561581 00.8262504244358316 42415150DRYMH
2024-07-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024292668.48651.8960.1880000.010.01FF36.486592.486200438.8466481739300.710310376197381642415150DRYMH
2024-07-18 12:00:01FORECAST2024292668.6351.63860.1340000.010.01FF36.63592.63200438.8466481739300.715213298649731642415150DRYMH
2024-07-18 08:00:01FORECAST2024292669.3550.8160.080000.010.01FF37.35593.35200438.8466481739300.739116196194541642415150DRYMH
2024-07-18 04:00:30FORECAST2024292668.01850.52259.270000.010.01FF36.018592.018200438.8466481739300.694108780928311632415145DRYM
2024-07-18 00:00:23FORECAST2024292668.84649.89259.369000.030.010.04FF36.846586.846199438.2410956158100.722492642589061642415150DRYMH
2024-07-17 20:00:02FORECAST2024292669.56650.23459.9000.040.010.05FF37.566588.566199438.2410956158100.746080665687261642415150DRYMH
2024-07-17 16:00:01FORECAST2024292669.29649.67659.486000.040.010.05FF37.296588.296199438.2410956158100.737359873900241642415150DRYMH
2024-07-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024292669.76450.41460.089000.040.010.05FF37.764588.764199438.2410956158100.75237810876521642415150DRYMH
2024-07-17 08:00:18FORECAST2024292669.63850.79260.215000.020.010.03FF37.638589.638199438.2410956158100.74838031272381642415150DRYMH
2024-07-17 04:00:26FORECAST2024292668.91850.5459.729000.020.010.03FF36.918588.918199438.2410956158100.724898745930591642415150DRYMH
2024-07-17 00:00:19FORECAST2024292670.35851.81861.088000.020.010.03FF38.358588.358199438.2410956158100.770759811645421642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024292670.37651.861.088000.010.010.02FF38.376586.376199438.2410956158100.771304646472211642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 16:00:02FORECAST2024292670.10651.22460.665000.010.010.02FF38.106586.106199438.2410956158100.763056284322091642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024292669.33250.960.1160000.010.01FF37.332584.332199438.2410956158100.738531426438511642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 08:00:16FORECAST2024292668.77449.80259.2880000.010.01FF36.774582.774199438.2410956158100.720076312183341642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 04:00:08FORECAST2024292668.6349.5559.090000.010.01FF36.63584.63199438.2410956158100.715213298649731642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 00:00:17FORECAST2024292669.81850.19860.0080000.010.01FF37.818587.818199438.2410956158100.754081021496541642415150DRYMH
2024-07-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024292669.49450.25259.873000.010.010.02FF37.494585.494199438.2410956158100.743770052018271642415150DRYMH
2024-07-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024292668.82850.75659.792000.010.010.02FF36.828585.828199438.2410956158100.721889515604761642415150DRYMH
2024-07-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024292668.88250.84659.8640000.010.01FF36.882585.882199438.2410956158100.723696977698631642415150DRYMH
2024-07-15 08:00:32FORECAST2024292668.50450.70259.6030000.010.01FF36.504584.504199438.2410956158100.710925400548111642415150DRYMH
2024-07-15 04:00:10FORECAST2024292668.39651.06259.7290000.010.01FF36.396584.396199438.2410956158100.70722609042241642415150DRYMH
2024-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024292667.9151.7159.810000.010.01FF35.91580.91199438.2410956158100.690313783466521632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024292669.15252.28660.7190000.010.01FF37.152584.152199438.2410956158100.73264698943591642415150DRYMH
2024-07-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024292668.97252.760.8360000.010.01FF36.972582.972199438.2410956158100.726696563528351642415150DRYMH
2024-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024292667.04649.87458.460000.010.01FF35.046581.046199438.2410956158100.659249216443661632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024292664.99449.06457.0290000.010.01FF32.994575.994199438.2410956158100.58136982783581632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-14 04:01:06FORECAST2024292664.86848.66856.7680000.010.01FF32.868573.868199438.2410956158100.576446305487741632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024292668.41449.53258.9730000.010.01FF36.414579.414199438.2410956158100.70784416482811642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024292670.80850.1860.4940000.010.01FF38.808580.808199438.2410956158100.784160976573011642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024292671.36650.82861.0970000.010.01FF39.366583.366199438.2410956158100.80013200707191642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024292669.27852.44860.8630000.010.01FF37.278583.278199438.2410956158100.736773093362511642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 08:00:17FORECAST2024292667.83850.34259.090000.010.01FF35.838577.838199438.2410956158100.687772443052491632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-13 04:00:11FORECAST2024292667.56849.87458.7210000.010.01FF35.568575.568199438.2410956158100.678163459757561632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-13 00:00:17FORECAST2024292666.41648.6557.5330000.010.01FF34.416566.416199438.2410956158100.635881217864061632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024292663.03248.0255.52600.003937010.003937010.010.01393701FF31.032563.032199438.2410956158100.50374084682591632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024292664.0448.54256.29100.0027559070.0027559070.010.012755907FF32.04566.04199438.2410956158100.543829247717541632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 12:00:02FORECAST2024292667.4651.78259.6210000.010.01FF35.46570.46199438.2410956158100.674285799876311632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 09:49:58FORECAST2024292667.4651.78259.6210000.010.01FF35.46570.46199438.2410956158100.674285799876311632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 08:00:22FORECAST2024292666.9251.87259.3960000.010.01FF34.92570.92199438.2410956158100.654620808819811632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 04:00:47FORECAST2024292668.0950.86459.4770000.010.01FF36.09579.09199438.2410956158100.696627294681071632415145DRYM
2024-07-12 00:00:16FORECAST2024292669.49448.63259.06300.0066929170.0066929170.010.016692917FF37.494583.494199438.2410956158100.743770052018271642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2024292671.2448.00259.62100.0066929170.0066929170.010.016692917FF39.24579.24199438.2410956158100.796589032941741642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024292671.25848.07459.66600.0043307110.0043307110.010.014330711FF39.258567.258199438.2410956158100.797097449320461642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024292668.95449.51459.234000.020.010.03FF36.954565.954199438.2410956158100.726097937283231642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024292667.60448.16457.884000.020.010.03FF35.604570.604199438.2410956158100.679451743370091632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-11 04:00:03FORECAST2024292672.15852.23262.19500.0055118140.0055118140.010.015511814FF40.158574.158199438.2410956158100.821542413846891642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 00:00:06FORECAST2024292672.69849.8261.25900.0106299270.0106299270.010.020629927FF40.698573.698199438.2410956158100.835280317673121642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024292671.18650.64860.91700.0106299270.0106299270.010.020629927FF39.186569.186199438.2410956158100.795059239477141642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 16:00:04FORECAST2024292668.97246.83257.9020000.010.01FF36.972561.972199438.2410956158100.726696563528351642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024292671.22248.16459.6930000.010.01FF39.222561.222199438.2410956158100.796079858830571642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024292666.3846.2256.30000.010.01FF34.38558.38199438.2410956158100.634529527985451632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024292668.52248.16458.3430000.010.01FF36.522562.522199438.2410956158100.711539810749581642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2024292667.65849.15458.4060000.010.01FF35.658568.658199438.2410956158100.681380121020561632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 20:00:03FORECAST2024292663.06848.52455.7960000.010.01FF31.068556.068199438.2410956158100.505175645354661632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024292663.75247.17455.4630000.010.01FF31.752556.752199438.2410956158100.532402970125251632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 12:00:04FORECAST2024292668.68446.7657.7220000.010.01FF36.684552.684199438.2410956158100.717041642069291642415150DRYMH
2024-07-09 09:32:52FORECAST2024292668.14446.74257.4430000.010.01FF36.144554.144199438.2410956158100.698510082146821632415145DRYM
2024-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024292668.14446.74257.4430000.010.01FF36.144556.144199438.2410956158100.698510082146821632415145DRYM
2024-07-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024292652.05250.70251.377NAN000.010.01FF20.052547.052199NANNAN0.138327369932331612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024292651.06249.62250.3420000.010.01FF19.062629.062199438.2410956158100.117635373476081612515220DRYL
2024-07-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024292651.36849.8250.5940000.010.01FF19.368631.368199438.2410956158100.123783506346211612515220DRYL
2024-07-08 16:00:04FORECAST2024292650.8149.13649.9730000.010.01FF18.81634.81199438.2410956158100.112736517481021612515220DRYL
2024-07-08 12:00:05FORECAST2024292646.444.90645.6530000.010.01FF14.4627.4199438.2410956158100.0490863653415781612515220DRYL
2024-07-08 09:16:47FORECAST2024292646.444.90645.6530000.010.01FF14.4627.4199438.2410956158100.0490863653415781612515220DRYL