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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 17, 2024

[ Tuesday, July 16, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 18, 2024 ]

DAY 291 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/18/2024 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 73.83°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 57.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.87°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.849
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 42
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 576

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.14 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.14 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 198
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.63 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 5

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-07-18 04:00:13OBSERVATION2024291573.8300257.9099265.869970000.140.14FF41.83002575.83002198437.63323758034 00.8494035221795116 52415155DRYH
2024-07-18 00:00:05FORECAST2024291568.34254.60861.47500.0255905650.0255905650.140.165590565FF36.342570.342199438.2410956158100.691875974867891632415145DRYM
2024-07-17 12:00:01FORECAST2024291569.40453.67261.53800.0381889970.0381889970.140.178188997FF37.404571.404199438.2410956158100.727155631020241642415150DRYMH
2024-07-17 08:00:04FORECAST2024291569.90854.5962.24900.015748040.015748040.140.15574804FF37.908571.908199438.2410956158100.743168438876241642415150DRYMH
2024-07-17 04:00:26FORECAST2024291569.56654.562.03300.0173228440.0173228440.140.157322844FF37.566571.566199438.2410956158100.73235607856011642415150DRYMH
2024-07-17 00:00:18FORECAST2024291572.15854.563.32900.023622060.023622060.140.16362206FF40.158570.158198437.6332375803400.80826841834381642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 20:00:02FORECAST2024291571.6954.96863.32900.0102362260.0102362260.140.150236226FF39.69567.69198437.6332375803400.795627005727941642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 16:00:01FORECAST2024291571.63653.2462.43800.0110236280.0110236280.140.151023628FF39.636567.636198437.6332375803400.794137181448981642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024291571.20455.83263.51800.0019685050.0019685050.140.141968505FF39.204567.204198437.6332375803400.781988974786871642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 08:00:16FORECAST2024291570.4354.93262.68100.0031496080.0031496080.140.143149608FF38.43566.43198437.6332375803400.75922294078211642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 04:00:08FORECAST2024291570.59254.87862.73500.0035433090.0035433090.140.143543309FF38.592567.592198437.6332375803400.764092169522361642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 00:00:17FORECAST2024291571.72655.63463.680000.140.14FF39.726569.726198437.6332375803400.796616653649351642415150DRYMH
2024-07-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024291571.38455.63463.50900.007874020.007874020.140.14787402FF39.384568.384198437.6332375803400.787100121626641642415150DRYMH
2024-07-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024291571.52855.14863.33800.0070866180.0070866180.140.147086618FF39.528568.528198437.6332375803400.79113831294091642415150DRYMH
2024-07-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024291572.42856.24664.3370000.140.14FF40.428569.428198437.6332375803400.815339190278271642415150DRYMH
2024-07-15 08:00:32FORECAST2024291572.48256.22864.3550000.140.14FF40.482568.482198437.6332375803400.816733686074881642415150DRYMH
2024-07-15 04:00:10FORECAST2024291572.2356.0364.130000.140.14FF40.23568.23198437.6332375803400.810169944393551642415150DRYMH
2024-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024291572.0554.5963.320000.140.14FF40.05565.05198437.6332375803400.805394399074591642415150DRYMH
2024-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024291573.09455.6764.3820000.140.14FF41.094567.094198437.6332375803400.83207731459611642415150DRYMH
2024-07-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024291572.84256.28264.5620000.140.14FF40.842565.842198437.6332375803400.825862096275961642415150DRYMH
2024-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024291572.71656.4864.5980000.140.14FF40.716565.716198437.6332375803400.822700487440981642415150DRYMH
2024-07-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024291571.70854.5963.1490000.140.14FF39.708562.708198437.6332375803400.796122186834521642415150DRYMH
2024-07-14 04:01:06FORECAST2024291570.7954.2362.510000.140.14FF38.79560.79198437.6332375803400.769969128512191642415150DRYMH
2024-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024291571.76255.18463.4730000.140.14FF39.762562.762198437.6332375803400.797603442522421642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024291572.37455.81464.0940000.140.14FF40.374562.374198437.6332375803400.813938131014211642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024291573.41856.364.8590000.140.14FF41.418564.418198437.6332375803400.839856267773391642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024291573.90456.365.1020000.140.14FF41.904565.904198437.6332375803400.851076886287911652415155DRYH
2024-07-13 08:00:17FORECAST2024291572.24854.6863.4640000.140.14FF40.248562.248198437.6332375803400.81064351188491642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 04:00:11FORECAST2024291571.07854.17662.6270000.140.14FF39.078560.078198437.6332375803400.77836954453451642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 00:00:17FORECAST2024291570.05251.54860.80000.140.14FF38.052552.052198437.6332375803400.747652130341061642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024291569.9851.24260.6110000.140.14FF37.98551.98198437.6332375803400.745415447683691642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024291570.68252.86261.7720000.140.14FF38.682553.682198437.6332375803400.766773703751731642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 12:00:02FORECAST2024291571.72652.10661.9160000.140.14FF39.726554.726198437.6332375803400.796616653649351642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 09:49:58FORECAST2024291571.72652.10661.9160000.140.14FF39.726554.726198437.6332375803400.796616653649351642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 08:00:21FORECAST2024291572.10451.60261.8530000.140.14FF40.104556.104198437.6332375803400.806834664502061642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 04:00:47FORECAST2024291573.11252.62862.870000.140.14FF41.112563.112198437.6332375803400.8325157408751642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 00:00:15FORECAST2024291574.19251.65662.9240000.140.14FF42.192566.192198437.6332375803400.857472838157231652415155DRYH
2024-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2024291572.33848.07460.2060000.140.14FF40.338560.338198437.6332375803400.813000448898931642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024291569.94447.35458.6490000.140.14FF37.944547.944198437.6332375803400.744293230191911642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024291569.11650.68459.900.0185039470.0185039470.140.158503947FF37.116549.116198437.6332375803400.717788519237491642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024291569.49450.88260.18800.0181102460.0181102460.140.158110246FF37.494555.494198437.6332375803400.730050940784061642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 04:00:03FORECAST2024291570.12450.46860.29600.0047244120.0047244120.140.144724412FF38.124554.124198437.6332375803400.749878425946451642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 00:00:06FORECAST2024291568.70248.97458.8380000.140.14FF36.702552.702198437.6332375803400.704058446923651642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024291569.33248.68659.0090000.140.14FF37.332550.332198437.6332375803400.724828359669941642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 16:00:04FORECAST2024291565.64245.12255.3820000.140.14FF33.642544.642198437.6332375803400.594516690105551632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024291566.45245.55456.0030000.140.14FF34.452542.452198437.6332375803400.624672826844861632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 08:00:02FORECAST2024291565.85845.9555.9040000.140.14FF33.858543.858198437.6332375803400.602621525598721632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 04:00:04FORECAST2024291567.47848.8358.1540000.140.14FF35.478546.478198437.6332375803400.661783165528481632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2024291570.55649.04659.8010000.140.14FF38.556552.556198437.6332375803400.763014824248011642415150DRYMH
2024-07-09 20:00:03FORECAST2024291566.32649.1957.7580000.140.14FF34.326545.326198437.6332375803400.620026491639871632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024291564.8548.0256.4350000.140.14FF32.85544.85198437.6332375803400.56447648906271632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 12:00:04FORECAST2024291564.95847.31856.1380000.140.14FF32.958535.958198437.6332375803400.568598943069891632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 09:32:52FORECAST2024291564.95847.78656.3720000.140.14FF32.958537.958198437.6332375803400.568598943069891632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024291564.95847.78656.3720000.140.14FF32.958539.958198437.6332375803400.568598943069891632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024291564.9449.53257.236NAN000.140.14FF32.94546.94198NANNAN0.567912373464831632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024291563.64446.70655.1750000.140.14FF31.644629.644198437.6332375803400.518068487806511632515225DRYL
2024-07-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024291564.65247.22855.940000.140.14FF32.652631.652198437.6332375803400.556900748169951632515225DRYL
2024-07-08 16:00:04FORECAST2024291565.87647.80456.840000.140.14FF33.876635.876198437.6332375803400.603294985478131632515225DRYL
2024-07-08 12:00:05FORECAST2024291566.70447.85857.2810000.140.14FF34.704632.704198437.6332375803400.633910848344571632515225DRYL
2024-07-08 09:16:47FORECAST2024291566.70447.85857.2810000.140.14FF34.704632.704198437.6332375803400.633910848344571632515225DRYL
2024-07-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024291550.1849.3749.77535.638976000.140.14FF18.18613.18198451.5037929631816.0911328413240.1035436656155161251124DRYL
2024-07-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024291550.1849.3749.77534.6652388000.140.14FF18.18616.18198451.14126418915.6389196556460.1035436656155161251124DRYL
2024-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024291547.76846.65247.2100.0125984320.0425984320.140.182598432FF15.768623.768198437.6332375803400.0673053220335031612515220DRYL
2024-07-07 20:00:03FORECAST2024291547.4846.00446.74200.0133858340.0533858340.140.193385834FF15.48619.48198437.6332375803400.0637307681750941612515220DRYL
2024-07-07 16:00:04FORECAST2024291547.345.2346.26500.0248031630.0948031630.140.234803163FF15.3620.3198437.6332375803400.0615725490438741612525240DRYM
2024-07-07 12:00:04FORECAST2024291548.50646.5847.5430000.140.14FF16.506626.506198437.6332375803400.0771693791974381612515220DRYL
2024-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024291545.84243.50244.6720000.140.14FF13.842628.842198437.6332375803400.0461243614602491612515220DRYL