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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 16, 2024

[ Monday, July 15, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 17, 2024 ]

DAY 290 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/17/2024 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 77.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 55.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 66.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.931
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 46
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 561

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.17 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.17 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 197
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.02 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 4

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-07-17 04:00:08OBSERVATION2024290477.7799455.5999866.689960000.170.17FF45.77994560.77994197437.02306529003 00.9314582743403716 52415155DRYH
2024-07-17 00:00:04FORECAST2024290473.54450.50462.0240000.170.17FF41.544556.544198437.6332375803400.856899046063631652415155DRYH
2024-07-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024290472.15848.93860.5480000.170.17FF40.158555.158198437.6332375803400.823586548957021642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 08:00:05FORECAST2024290472.2348.84860.5390000.170.17FF40.23555.23198437.6332375803400.825429038282421642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 04:00:08FORECAST2024290473.18448.3860.7820000.170.17FF41.184556.184198437.6332375803400.848683888229521642415150DRYMH
2024-07-16 00:00:16FORECAST2024290475.03849.53262.2850000.170.17FF43.038557.038197437.0230652900300.887746273921541652415155DRYH
2024-07-15 20:00:02FORECAST2024290474.71449.42462.0690000.170.17FF42.714555.714197437.0230652900300.88149560663441652415155DRYH
2024-07-15 16:00:01FORECAST2024290475.00248.95661.9790000.170.17FF43.002556.002197437.0230652900300.887063587615281652415155DRYH
2024-07-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024290475.18249.67662.4290000.170.17FF43.182556.182197437.0230652900300.890447610374461652415155DRYH
2024-07-15 08:00:32FORECAST2024290474.01250.8162.4110000.170.17FF42.012555.012197437.0230652900300.867121645430671652415155DRYH
2024-07-15 04:00:09FORECAST2024290474.01250.86462.4380000.170.17FF42.012555.012197437.0230652900300.867121645430671652415155DRYH
2024-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024290473.54451.31462.4290000.170.17FF41.544551.544197437.0230652900300.856899046063631652415155DRYH
2024-07-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024290474.62451.13462.8790000.170.17FF42.624552.624197437.0230652900300.879716599626411652415155DRYH
2024-07-14 16:00:02FORECAST2024290474.08451.0862.5820000.170.17FF42.084552.084197437.0230652900300.868648700681551652415155DRYH
2024-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024290474.04851.56662.8070000.170.17FF42.048552.048197437.0230652900300.867886689882491652415155DRYH
2024-07-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024290473.72451.4462.5820000.170.17FF41.724549.724197437.0230652900300.86089181504811652415155DRYH
2024-07-14 04:01:06FORECAST2024290473.47250.48661.9790000.170.17FF41.472549.472197437.0230652900300.855280530511631652415155DRYH
2024-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024290473.99451.45862.7260000.170.17FF41.994549.994197437.0230652900300.866737984859581652415155DRYH
2024-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024290473.81450.93662.3750000.170.17FF41.814548.814197437.0230652900300.862859574455151652415155DRYH
2024-07-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024290474.26451.7162.9870000.170.17FF42.264550.264197437.0230652900300.872413335519831652415155DRYH
2024-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024290473.95850.68462.3210000.170.17FF41.958550.958197437.0230652900300.865968385613111652415155DRYH
2024-07-13 08:00:17FORECAST2024290473.36449.78461.5740000.170.17FF41.364549.364197437.0230652900300.852829786701561652415155DRYH
2024-07-13 04:00:11FORECAST2024290472.93249.13661.0340000.170.17FF40.932547.932197437.0230652900300.842750689942151642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 00:00:17FORECAST2024290470.37648.12859.2520000.170.17FF38.376541.376197437.0230652900300.774142947790891642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024290469.33247.87658.6040000.170.17FF37.332541.332197437.0230652900300.741876861872321642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 16:00:02FORECAST2024290470.19648.27259.2340000.170.17FF38.196542.196197437.0230652900300.76874768308751642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 12:00:02FORECAST2024290468.50447.06657.7850000.170.17FF36.504541.504197437.0230652900300.714686551196181642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 09:49:57FORECAST2024290468.50447.06657.7850000.170.17FF36.504541.504197437.0230652900300.714686551196181642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 08:00:21FORECAST2024290468.39647.33657.8660000.170.17FF36.396543.396197437.0230652900300.711041991040821642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 04:00:47FORECAST2024290471.99648.77660.3860000.170.17FF39.996548.996197437.0230652900300.819396269859791642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 00:00:15FORECAST2024290471.0649.15460.1070000.170.17FF39.06551.06197437.0230652900300.793984406249731642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024290470.01647.85858.9370000.170.17FF38.016547.016197437.0230652900300.763281392374221642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024290468.25246.8557.5510000.170.17FF36.252537.252197437.0230652900300.706148818568581642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024290469.56646.86858.2170000.170.17FF37.566538.566197437.0230652900300.749310440778841642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024290470.21447.5758.8920000.170.17FF38.214545.214197437.0230652900300.769290418770121642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 04:00:03FORECAST2024290469.36846.72458.0460000.170.17FF37.368543.368197437.0230652900300.743027871801431642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 00:00:05FORECAST2024290468.75645.53657.1460000.170.17FF36.756542.756197437.0230652900300.723104416143531642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024290467.7345.84256.7860000.170.17FF35.73539.73197437.0230652900300.688098280323461632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 16:00:04FORECAST2024290464.56243.2553.9060000.170.17FF32.562537.562197437.0230652900300.57013078298751632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024290463.0545.46454.2570000.170.17FF31.05535.05197437.0230652900300.510754397821021632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 08:00:02FORECAST2024290463.89645.69854.7970000.170.17FF31.896536.896197437.0230652900300.544091636837771632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 04:00:04FORECAST2024290464.65247.0355.8410000.170.17FF32.652537.652197437.0230652900300.573628863897271632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2024290468.84647.64258.2440000.170.17FF36.846540.846197437.0230652900300.726081079635071642415150DRYMH
2024-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024290467.22648.03857.6320000.170.17FF35.226538.226197437.0230652900300.670230370874241632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024290466.95647.60657.2810000.170.17FF34.956538.956197437.0230652900300.660492673277751632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024290466.16446.20256.1830000.170.17FF34.164530.164197437.0230652900300.631326230594771632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 09:32:51FORECAST2024290466.48846.456.4440000.170.17FF34.488532.488197437.0230652900300.643360905482771632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024290466.48846.456.4440000.170.17FF34.488534.488197437.0230652900300.643360905482771632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024290467.6448.1157.875NAN000.170.17FF35.64540.64197NANNAN0.684938279797091632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024290465.31848.88457.1010000.170.17FF33.318625.318197437.0230652900300.599317363609561632515225DRYL
2024-07-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024290463.71648.30856.0120000.170.17FF31.716625.716197437.0230652900300.537016576506231632515225DRYL
2024-07-08 16:00:04FORECAST2024290463.98648.61456.30000.170.17FF31.986628.986197437.0230652900300.547624073020641632515225DRYL
2024-07-08 12:00:04FORECAST2024290466.61448.4757.5420000.170.17FF34.614624.614197437.0230652900300.648003563932411632515225DRYL
2024-07-08 09:16:47FORECAST2024290466.61448.4757.5420000.170.17FF34.614624.614197437.0230652900300.648003563932411632515225DRYL
2024-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2024290464.20245.84255.02235.9300432000.170.17FF32.202622.202197451.0550332502816.206426830260.55608603158989163251125DRYL
2024-07-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024290464.20245.84255.02234.956306000.170.17FF32.202625.202197450.6913931883715.7545062518590.55608603158989163251125DRYL
2024-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024290464.79648.4756.63300.0299212760.0299212760.170.199921276FF32.796634.796197437.0230652900300.579213655333751632515225DRYL
2024-07-07 20:00:03FORECAST2024290462.18648.5655.37300.0381889970.0381889970.170.208188997FF30.186631.186197437.0230652900300.476631802775451622515222.5DRYL
2024-07-07 16:00:04FORECAST2024290465.55248.66857.1100.0692913760.0692913760.170.239291376FF33.552631.552197437.0230652900300.60824805033651632515225DRYL
2024-07-07 12:00:04FORECAST2024290471.27650.01860.6470000.170.17FF39.276637.276197437.0230652900300.800029071816911642515155DRYH
2024-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024290470.7947.6659.2250000.170.17FF38.79641.79197437.0230652900300.786278454344731642515155DRYH
2024-07-07 04:00:09FORECAST2024290454.69852.98853.8430000.170.17FF22.698624.698197437.0230652900300.21177791542231612515220DRYL
2024-07-07 00:00:05FORECAST2024290451.60249.7350.6660000.170.17FF19.602607.602197437.0230652900300.1341268373691612515220DRYL
2024-07-06 20:00:04FORECAST2024290450.2747.42648.8480000.170.17FF18.27601.27197437.0230652900300.107638739258531612515220DRYL
2024-07-06 16:00:04FORECAST2024290450.2747.42648.8480000.170.17FF18.27602.27197437.0230652900300.107638739258531612515220DRYL
2024-07-06 12:00:05FORECAST2024290443.7942.09842.9440000.170.17FF11.79598.79197437.0230652900300.029853949249891612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-06 08:00:04FORECAST2024290445.5943.41244.5010000.170.17FF13.59599.59197437.0230652900300.0441994830689751612515220DRYL