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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 15, 2024

[ Sunday, July 14, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 16, 2024 ]

DAY 289 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/16/2024 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.58°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.24°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.711
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 36
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 541

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.18 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.18 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 196
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 436.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 3

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-07-16 04:00:07OBSERVATION2024289367.8900248.5799858.2350000.180.18FF35.89002540.89002196436.410569934 00.7109122187617916 42415225DRYL
2024-07-16 00:00:05FORECAST2024289367.22646.41856.8220000.180.18FF35.226540.226197437.0230652900300.687478945831581632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024289365.62445.91455.7690000.180.18FF33.624538.624197437.0230652900300.627891204881441632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-15 08:00:06FORECAST2024289365.62445.3255.4720000.180.18FF33.624538.624197437.0230652900300.627891204881441632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-15 04:00:09FORECAST2024289366.03846.61656.3270000.180.18FF34.038539.038197437.0230652900300.643657530737621632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024289367.33446.90457.1190000.180.18FF35.334536.334196436.41056993400.691345738710111632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-14 20:00:01FORECAST2024289368.19846.1357.1640000.180.18FF36.198536.198196436.41056993400.721493197134561642415150DRYMH
2024-07-14 16:00:02FORECAST2024289367.67646.29256.9840000.180.18FF35.676535.676196436.41056993400.703449869065141642415225DRYL
2024-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024289367.9148.32658.1180000.180.18FF35.91535.91196436.41056993400.711604345772431642415225DRYL
2024-07-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024289367.22647.35457.290000.180.18FF35.226534.226196436.41056993400.687478945831581632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-14 04:01:06FORECAST2024289366.75846.8556.8040000.180.18FF34.758533.758196436.41056993400.670487884019141632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024289367.35247.96657.6590000.180.18FF35.352534.352196436.41056993400.691988163773331632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024289367.08247.49857.290000.180.18FF35.082533.082196436.41056993400.682291031212421632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024289367.3747.67857.5240000.180.18FF35.37534.37196436.41056993400.692630001575581632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024289367.8247.33657.5780000.180.18FF35.82534.82196436.41056993400.708480517892051642415225DRYL
2024-07-13 08:00:17FORECAST2024289367.56846.41856.9930000.180.18FF35.568533.568196436.41056993400.699651005965211642415225DRYL
2024-07-13 04:00:11FORECAST2024289367.24446.07656.660000.180.18FF35.244533.244196436.41056993400.688124860670831632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-13 00:00:16FORECAST2024289365.4846.50855.9940000.180.18FF33.48529.48196436.41056993400.622355049108731632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024289365.8446.7656.30000.180.18FF33.84529.84196436.41056993400.636145797672871632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 16:00:02FORECAST2024289365.6646.50856.0840000.180.18FF33.66529.66196436.41056993400.629271175306481632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 12:00:02FORECAST2024289365.69646.05855.8770000.180.18FF33.696530.696196436.41056993400.63064948544971632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 09:49:57FORECAST2024289365.2146.20255.7060000.180.18FF33.21531.21196436.41056993400.61190756641031632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 08:00:21FORECAST2024289365.71446.34656.030000.180.18FF33.714532.714196436.41056993400.631338012811421632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 04:00:46FORECAST2024289367.8246.86857.3440000.180.18FF35.82534.82196436.41056993400.708480517892051642415225DRYL
2024-07-12 00:00:15FORECAST2024289368.3646.68857.5240000.180.18FF36.36538.36196436.41056993400.726982212075721642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024289367.7345.82456.7770000.180.18FF35.73534.73196436.41056993400.705341016739661642415225DRYL
2024-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024289366.03845.0555.5440000.180.18FF34.038527.038196436.41056993400.643657530737621632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024289365.44445.66255.5530000.180.18FF33.444527.444196436.41056993400.620967024385061632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024289366.52446.61656.570000.180.18FF34.524532.524196436.41056993400.661855682485551632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-11 04:00:03FORECAST2024289366.59646.72456.660000.180.18FF34.596531.596196436.41056993400.664521078589511632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-11 00:00:05FORECAST2024289366.32645.71656.0210000.180.18FF34.326532.326196436.41056993400.65448426648121632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024289366.27245.6855.9760000.180.18FF34.272530.272196436.41056993400.652463531154991632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024289364.90444.72654.8150000.180.18FF32.904530.904196436.41056993400.599968827645851632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024289365.15646.59855.87700.003937010.003937010.180.18393701FF33.156530.156196436.41056993400.609808046198371632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 08:00:02FORECAST2024289364.95846.43655.69700.0043307110.0043307110.180.184330711FF32.958530.958196436.41056993400.602082812949521632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 04:00:04FORECAST2024289365.69647.40856.55200.0043307110.0043307110.180.184330711FF33.696530.696196436.41056993400.63064948544971632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2024289366.68648.8357.7580000.180.18FF34.686529.686196436.41056993400.66784121012781632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024289366.4751.24258.8560000.180.18FF34.47529.47196436.41056993400.659851292184681632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024289366.52450.93658.730000.180.18FF34.524529.524196436.41056993400.661855682485551632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024289364.4946.81455.6520000.180.18FF32.49522.49196436.41056993400.583668583850171632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 09:32:51FORECAST2024289364.99446.70655.850000.180.18FF32.994523.994196436.41056993400.603490477855591632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2024289364.99446.81455.9040000.180.18FF32.994525.994196436.41056993400.603490477855591632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024289364.9446.92255.931NAN000.180.18FF32.94530.94196NANNAN0.601378480718871632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024289369.4450.73860.0890000.180.18FF37.44618.44196436.41056993400.762151045390611642515155DRYH
2024-07-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024289368.91850.64859.7830000.180.18FF36.918619.918196436.41056993400.745469076291731642515155DRYH
2024-07-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024289369.85450.39660.1250000.180.18FF37.854622.854196436.41056993400.77494388190321642515155DRYH
2024-07-08 12:00:04FORECAST2024289367.31651.6259.46800.0043307110.0043307110.180.184330711FF35.316616.316196436.41056993400.690702727986031632515225DRYL
2024-07-08 09:16:47FORECAST2024289367.31652.48459.900.0043307110.0043307110.180.184330711FF35.316616.316196436.41056993400.690702727986031632515225DRYL
2024-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2024289366.59651.00858.80238.9401976000.180.18FF34.596615.596196451.6186839380817.5861207924010.66452107858951163251125DRYL
2024-07-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024289366.61451.00858.81137.9664604000.180.18FF34.614618.614196451.2564396745917.132609747150.66518614325184163251125DRYL
2024-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024289370.64649.17259.9090000.180.18FF38.646627.646196436.41056993400.798299194434291642515155DRYH
2024-07-07 20:00:03FORECAST2024289370.93449.02859.9810000.180.18FF38.934626.934196436.41056993400.8064192352651642515155DRYH
2024-07-07 16:00:04FORECAST2024289372.10448.5660.3320000.180.18FF40.104624.104196436.41056993400.837314275628941642515155DRYH
2024-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024289370.62848.2959.4590000.180.18FF38.628623.628196436.41056993400.797785022071881642515155DRYH
2024-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024289372.9550.03661.4930000.180.18FF40.95628.95196436.41056993400.857540134750181652515160DRYH
2024-07-07 04:00:09FORECAST2024289372.26650.61261.4390000.180.18FF40.266628.266196436.41056993400.841324910205971642515155DRYH
2024-07-07 00:00:05FORECAST2024289368.30647.6657.9830000.180.18FF36.306614.306196436.41056993400.725158505656361642515155DRYH
2024-07-06 20:00:04FORECAST2024289366.27247.26456.7680000.180.18FF34.272609.272196436.41056993400.652463531154991632515225DRYL
2024-07-06 16:00:04FORECAST2024289366.32647.76857.0470000.180.18FF34.326610.326196436.41056993400.65448426648121632515225DRYL
2024-07-06 12:00:04FORECAST2024289367.87445.39256.6330000.180.18FF35.874612.874196436.41056993400.710356707010141642515227.5DRYL
2024-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024289368.93645.39257.1640000.180.18FF36.936611.936196436.41056993400.746054331999861642515155DRYH
2024-07-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024289348.45247.26447.8580000.180.18FF16.452595.452196436.41056993400.0784320661896941612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024289346.00444.9645.4820000.180.18FF14.004590.004196436.41056993400.0479909063083191612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024289350.57649.83850.2070000.180.18FF18.576597.576196436.41056993400.115082787559151612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024289348.8347.49848.1640000.180.18FF16.83606.83196436.41056993400.0842123234908481612515220DRYL
2024-07-05 12:00:04FORECAST2024289347.0345.87846.4540000.180.18FF15.03610.03196436.41056993400.0593477579527091612515220DRYL
2024-07-05 09:58:03FORECAST2024289347.0345.87846.4540000.180.18FF15.03609.03196436.41056993400.0593477579527091612515220DRYL
2024-07-05 08:00:05FORECAST2024289344.70842.99843.8530000.180.18FF12.708597.708196436.41056993400.0362004708708661612415217.5DRYL