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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 14, 2024

[ Saturday, July 13, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, July 15, 2024 ]

DAY 288 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/15/2024 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.45°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.58°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.843
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 515

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.76 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 195
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 2

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-07-15 04:00:08OBSERVATION2024288271.7000853.4500662.575070000.760.76FF39.70008514.70008195435.79574266778 00.8427512281568616 42415150DRYMH
2024-07-15 00:00:02FORECAST2024288268.12650.7259.4230000.760.76FF36.126511.126196436.41056993400.743847049876361642415150DRYMH
2024-07-14 12:00:02FORECAST2024288266.50650.64858.5770000.760.76FF34.506509.506196436.41056993400.690192674393371632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-14 08:00:01FORECAST2024288266.115058.0550000.760.76FF34.11509.11196436.41056993400.676368386185441632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-14 04:01:05FORECAST2024288265.62450.25257.9380000.760.76FF33.624508.624196436.41056993400.659065575269551632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-14 00:00:02FORECAST2024288267.5551.33259.4410000.760.76FF35.55508.55195435.7957426677800.725336104805121642415225DRYL
2024-07-13 20:00:02FORECAST2024288267.1950.41458.8020000.760.76FF35.19508.19195435.7957426677800.713441411476941642415225DRYL
2024-07-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024288267.53250.55859.0450000.760.76FF35.532508.532195435.7957426677800.724747193027831642415225DRYL
2024-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024288267.96450.25259.1080000.760.76FF35.964508.964195435.7957426677800.738707276972641642415225DRYL
2024-07-13 08:00:16FORECAST2024288266.90249.24458.0730000.760.76FF34.902507.902195435.7957426677800.703753313821991642415225DRYL
2024-07-13 04:00:10FORECAST2024288266.97448.75857.8660000.760.76FF34.974507.974195435.7957426677800.706189371558261642415225DRYL
2024-07-13 00:00:16FORECAST2024288266.07449.69457.8840000.760.76FF34.074506.074195435.7957426677800.675099105860791632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 20:00:02FORECAST2024288266.12849.62257.8750000.760.76FF34.128506.128195435.7957426677800.677002259535281632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 16:00:02FORECAST2024288266.48848.7457.6140000.760.76FF34.488506.488195435.7957426677800.689569899876911632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 12:00:02FORECAST2024288267.2848.99258.1360000.760.76FF35.28507.28195435.7957426677800.716437856677581642415225DRYL
2024-07-12 09:49:57FORECAST2024288267.38849.0158.1990000.760.76FF35.388508.388195435.7957426677800.720013673297551642415225DRYL
2024-07-12 08:00:21FORECAST2024288267.7349.13658.4330.544508000.760.76FF35.73508.73195436.019786045410.237416261660010.73119085846521642414220DRYL
2024-07-12 04:00:46FORECAST2024288268.21649.67658.9460.33831536666666000.760.76FF36.216509.216195435.934982430980.147483503423960.746679560019951642414140DRYM
2024-07-12 00:00:15FORECAST2024288268.75649.56859.1620000.760.76FF36.756511.756195435.7957426677800.763323394856291642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024288267.67648.59658.1360000.760.76FF35.676508.676195435.7957426677800.72944102504931642415225DRYL
2024-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2024288266.14647.8456.9930000.760.76FF34.146503.146195435.7957426677800.677635619600281632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024288266.93848.00257.470000.760.76FF34.938503.938195435.7957426677800.704972499760281642415225DRYL
2024-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024288267.96448.25458.1090000.760.76FF35.964507.964195435.7957426677800.738707276972641642415225DRYL
2024-07-11 04:00:03FORECAST2024288268.23448.27258.2530000.760.76FF36.234507.234195435.7957426677800.747244082480561642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 00:00:05FORECAST2024288268.41448.30858.3610000.760.76FF36.414508.414195435.7957426677800.752852730115621642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024288268.2748.86658.5680000.760.76FF36.27506.27195435.7957426677800.748371139979691642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024288269.5348.66859.0990000.760.76FF37.53507.53195435.7957426677800.786094843764131642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024288269.29649.62259.4590000.760.76FF37.296507.296195435.7957426677800.779348202052611642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 08:00:02FORECAST2024288268.86449.6459.2520000.760.76FF36.864507.864195435.7957426677800.766578581453361642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 04:00:04FORECAST2024288268.91850.12659.5220000.760.76FF36.918506.918195435.7957426677800.768196829521791642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2024288268.79250.7259.7560000.760.76FF36.792504.792195435.7957426677800.764411218555031642415150DRYMH
2024-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024288269.92651.81860.8720000.760.76FF37.926504.926195435.7957426677800.797234945424571642415150DRYMH
2024-07-09 16:00:02FORECAST2024288270.17851.8961.0340000.760.76FF38.178505.178195435.7957426677800.804140403029151642415150DRYMH
2024-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024288269.47649.22659.3510000.760.76FF37.476500.476195435.7957426677800.784548656867331642415150DRYMH
2024-07-09 09:32:51FORECAST2024288269.69249.15459.4230000.760.76FF37.692500.692195435.7957426677800.790694536360761642415150DRYMH
2024-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2024288269.67449.65859.6660000.760.76FF37.674502.674195435.7957426677800.790186346952761642415150DRYMH
2024-07-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024288270.32250.9960.656NAN000.760.76FF38.322508.322195NANNAN0.808021637488971642415150DRYMH
2024-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024288271.49250.7261.1060000.760.76FF39.492591.492195435.7957426677800.8377892648681642415150DRYMH
2024-07-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024288271.58250.82861.2050000.760.76FF39.582592.582195435.7957426677800.839947788739391642415150DRYMH
2024-07-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024288271.45650.66661.0610000.760.76FF39.456595.456195435.7957426677800.836920586468731642415150DRYMH
2024-07-08 12:00:04FORECAST2024288272.28451.5361.9070000.760.76FF40.284591.284195435.7957426677800.856138636528091652415155DRYH
2024-07-08 09:16:47FORECAST2024288272.3252.64662.4830000.760.76FF40.32591.32195435.7957426677800.85693812694021652415155DRYH
2024-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2024288273.02254.93263.97742.4466816000.760.76FF41.022591.022195452.3637610207919.2013405314280.871930852905321652411111DRYL
2024-07-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024288273.52655.8564.68841.4740268000.760.76FF41.526593.526195452.003762944118.7464161780450.881999976229481652411111DRYL
2024-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024288272.37451.5361.9520000.760.76FF40.374599.374195435.7957426677800.858131740189691652515160DRYH
2024-07-07 20:00:03FORECAST2024288271.79848.9260.3590000.760.76FF39.798597.798195435.7957426677800.845051459650771642415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 16:00:04FORECAST2024288270.12448.32659.2250000.760.76FF38.124594.124195435.7957426677800.802672775922341642415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024288268.34246.43657.3890000.760.76FF36.342595.342195435.7957426677800.750617278242921642415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024288269.49446.90458.1990000.760.76FF37.494598.494195435.7957426677800.785064770123411642415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 04:00:08FORECAST2024288269.00847.37258.190000.760.76FF37.008598.008195435.7957426677800.770879991766281642415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 00:00:04FORECAST2024288267.60446.45457.0290000.760.76FF35.604587.604195435.7957426677800.727099107526821642415225DRYL
2024-07-06 20:00:04FORECAST2024288267.83847.33657.5870000.760.76FF35.838584.838195435.7957426677800.734673409922821642415225DRYL
2024-07-06 16:00:04FORECAST2024288268.25248.14658.1990000.760.76FF36.252586.252195435.7957426677800.747807942791321642415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 12:00:04FORECAST2024288269.42246.05857.740000.760.76FF37.422587.422195435.7957426677800.782996018649191642415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024288268.10845.30256.7050000.760.76FF36.108585.108195435.7957426677800.743278575234611642415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024288267.5542.81855.1840000.760.76FF35.55588.55195435.7957426677800.725336104805121642415225DRYL
2024-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024288264.56242.7153.6360000.760.76FF32.562585.562195435.7957426677800.620115797733271632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024288264.18446.83255.5080000.760.76FF32.184589.184195435.7957426677800.605928304660941632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024288266.05645.57255.8140000.760.76FF34.056600.056195435.7957426677800.674463702011861632515225DRYL
2024-07-05 12:00:04FORECAST2024288271.1548.32659.7380000.760.76FF39.15605.15195435.7957426677800.829415338499411642515155DRYH
2024-07-05 09:58:03FORECAST2024288271.1548.32659.7380000.760.76FF39.15604.15195435.7957426677800.829415338499411642515155DRYH
2024-07-05 08:00:04FORECAST2024288268.6344.16856.3990000.760.76FF36.63594.63195435.7957426677800.759494377067451642415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 04:00:06FORECAST2024288251.8949.98250.9360000.760.76FF19.89578.89195435.7957426677800.174428853808451612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024288251.8950.25251.0710000.760.76FF19.89584.89195435.7957426677800.174428853808451612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-04 20:00:04FORECAST2024288252.03450.3651.1970000.760.76FF20.034585.034195435.7957426677800.178086981482931612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-04 16:00:04FORECAST2024288248.59646.8547.7230000.760.76FF16.596565.596195435.7957426677800.103812550466771612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-04 12:00:04FORECAST2024288249.11846.92248.020000.760.76FF17.118569.118195435.7957426677800.113357696336871612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-04 08:00:04FORECAST2024288249.26247.2148.2360000.760.76FF17.262571.262195435.7957426677800.116097345845531612415217.5DRYL