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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 13, 2024

[ Friday, July 12, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, July 14, 2024 ]

DAY 287 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/14/2024 04:00:53 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 58.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.85°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.843
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 41
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 504

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.82 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.82 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 194
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 1

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-07-14 04:00:53OBSERVATION2024287172.8000658.8900265.845040000.820.82FF40.80006503.80006194435.17857461327 00.8433445056584716 42415150DRYMH
2024-07-14 00:00:01FORECAST2024287170.77253.09661.9340000.820.82FF38.772501.772195435.7957426677800.791776129432971642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 12:00:01FORECAST2024287171.38451.90861.6460000.820.82FF39.384502.384195435.7957426677800.808299415901951642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 08:00:04FORECAST2024287170.82651.18861.0070000.820.82FF38.826501.826195435.7957426677800.793266946924581642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 04:00:10FORECAST2024287170.89850.1860.5390000.820.82FF38.898501.898195435.7957426677800.795244861381581642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 00:00:16FORECAST2024287171.00650.79260.8990000.820.82FF39.006501.006194435.1785746132700.798190580192391642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 20:00:01FORECAST2024287170.98850.23460.6110000.820.82FF38.988500.988194435.1785746132700.797701393289281642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 16:00:01FORECAST2024287170.8850.16260.5210000.820.82FF38.88500.88194435.1785746132700.794751438755511642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 12:00:01FORECAST2024287171.27652.12461.70000.820.82FF39.276501.276194435.1785746132700.805443239108711642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 09:49:57FORECAST2024287171.56452.50262.0330000.820.82FF39.564501.564194435.1785746132700.813002410954421642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 08:00:20FORECAST2024287171.56451.74661.6553.9095912000.820.82FF39.564501.564194436.786460557721.70765650247560.813002410954421642414140DRYM
2024-07-12 04:00:46FORECAST2024287171.40252.03461.7183.7947137666667000.820.82FF39.402502.402194436.739442591291.65730117524750.80877294204861642414140DRYM
2024-07-12 00:00:15FORECAST2024287171.97852.28662.1320000.820.82FF39.978503.978194435.1785746132700.823546010274321642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024287171.22251.36861.2950000.820.82FF39.222502.222194435.1785746132700.804005511247931642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2024287169.31450.10859.7110000.820.82FF37.314498.314194435.1785746132700.749191935684311642315145DRYM
2024-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024287169.04449.69459.3690000.820.82FF37.044498.044194435.1785746132700.740829616527321642315145DRYM
2024-07-11 08:00:02FORECAST2024287169.94449.83859.8910000.820.82FF37.944500.944194435.1785746132700.768135644294691642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 04:00:03FORECAST2024287169.29649.65859.4770000.820.82FF37.296500.296194435.1785746132700.748638920175141642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 00:00:04FORECAST2024287169.72850.05459.8910000.820.82FF37.728500.728194435.1785746132700.761731797258131642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024287169.87249.67659.7740000.820.82FF37.872498.872194435.1785746132700.766011727756711642315145DRYM
2024-07-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024287169.60249.159.3510000.820.82FF37.602498.602194435.1785746132700.757952011024821642315145DRYM
2024-07-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024287169.92650.07259.9990000.820.82FF37.926498.926194435.1785746132700.76760567237411642315145DRYM
2024-07-10 08:00:02FORECAST2024287169.78250.50460.1430000.820.82FF37.782499.782194435.1785746132700.763341769136531642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 04:00:03FORECAST2024287169.31450.25259.7830000.820.82FF37.314499.314194435.1785746132700.749191935684311642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2024287169.78250.960.3410000.820.82FF37.782496.782194435.1785746132700.763341769136531642315145DRYM
2024-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024287169.63850.79260.2150000.820.82FF37.638495.638194435.1785746132700.759035251346551642315145DRYM
2024-07-09 16:00:02FORECAST2024287169.74650.70260.2240000.820.82FF37.746495.746194435.1785746132700.762269119119091642315145DRYM
2024-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024287168.73848.18258.460000.820.82FF36.738491.738194435.1785746132700.731181260982861642315145DRYM
2024-07-09 09:32:51FORECAST2024287168.79248.57858.6850000.820.82FF36.792491.792194435.1785746132700.732896915032741642315145DRYM
2024-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2024287169.27848.93859.1080000.820.82FF37.278494.278194435.1785746132700.748085261704261642315145DRYM
2024-07-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024287170.5250.10860.314NAN000.820.82FF38.52498.52194NANNAN0.784735750269771642315145DRYM
2024-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024287171.13250.79260.9620000.820.82FF39.132581.132194435.1785746132700.801595052738471642415150DRYMH
2024-07-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024287171.81651.00861.4120000.820.82FF39.816581.816194435.1785746132700.819465754857671642415150DRYMH
2024-07-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024287171.74450.7261.2320000.820.82FF39.744584.744194435.1785746132700.817633509118391642415150DRYMH
2024-07-08 12:00:04FORECAST2024287171.70850.8161.2590000.820.82FF39.708579.708194435.1785746132700.816713054948911642415150DRYMH
2024-07-08 09:16:47FORECAST2024287172.03251.76461.8980000.820.82FF40.032580.032194435.1785746132700.824893060723971642415150DRYMH
2024-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2024287171.88852.1662.02446.5670832000.820.82FF39.888578.888194453.3306532576221.1102862473580.821286437876091642411110DRYL
2024-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2024287172.5953.34862.96945.6709836000.820.82FF40.59580.59194453.0012252195920.6890115277840.838429785820861642411110DRYL
2024-07-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024287169.47648.6559.0630000.820.82FF37.476588.476194435.1785746132700.754139992948441642415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 20:00:03FORECAST2024287168.07248.52458.2980000.820.82FF36.072587.072194435.1785746132700.709577809619411642415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024287167.92848.93858.4330000.820.82FF35.928584.928194435.1785746132700.704802206629041642415225DRYL
2024-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024287167.98248.48858.2350000.820.82FF35.982587.982194435.1785746132700.706597288008981642415225DRYL
2024-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024287167.62248.32657.9740000.820.82FF35.622589.622194435.1785746132700.694536014921831632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-07 04:00:08FORECAST2024287166.86647.96657.4160000.820.82FF34.866589.866194435.1785746132700.668521773102841632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-07 00:00:04FORECAST2024287169.47650.23459.8550000.820.82FF37.476581.476194435.1785746132700.754139992948441642415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 20:00:04FORECAST2024287168.10849.02858.5680000.820.82FF36.108578.108194435.1785746132700.710766040734591642415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024287168.32449.29858.8110000.820.82FF36.324579.324194435.1785746132700.717847042875771642415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 12:00:04FORECAST2024287168.97246.0457.5060000.820.82FF36.972578.972194435.1785746132700.738575603283871642415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024287167.96445.0556.5070000.820.82FF35.964577.964194435.1785746132700.705999489054671642415225DRYL
2024-07-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024287166.72244.20455.4630000.820.82FF34.722581.722194435.1785746132700.663468060507441632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024287167.35244.92456.1380000.820.82FF35.352582.352194435.1785746132700.685348541954611632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024287168.55851.58460.0710000.820.82FF36.558585.558194435.1785746132700.725422783751661642415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024287173.36455.59864.4810000.820.82FF41.364595.364194435.1785746132700.85604851187681652415155DRYH
2024-07-05 12:00:04FORECAST2024287172.42854.21263.320000.820.82FF40.428595.428194435.1785746132700.834571774999851642415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 09:58:03FORECAST2024287172.42854.21263.320000.820.82FF40.428594.428194435.1785746132700.834571774999851642415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 08:00:04FORECAST2024287170.10650.86460.4850000.820.82FF38.106587.106194435.1785746132700.772875032434731642415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 04:00:06FORECAST2024287170.10650.86460.4850000.820.82FF38.106588.106194435.1785746132700.772875032434731642415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024287170.80851.5361.1690000.820.82FF38.808593.808194435.1785746132700.792770709951751642415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 20:00:04FORECAST2024287170.89851.78261.340000.820.82FF38.898593.898194435.1785746132700.795244861381581642415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024287164.68847.17455.9310000.820.82FF32.688577.688194435.1785746132700.589313423326871632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-04 12:00:04FORECAST2024287169.24246.77858.010000.820.82FF37.242581.242194435.1785746132700.746976019554691642415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 08:00:03FORECAST2024287169.04447.0358.0370000.820.82FF37.044583.044194435.1785746132700.740829616527321642415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 04:00:05FORECAST2024287150.05448.70449.3790000.820.82FF18.054558.054194435.1785746132700.117826707801841612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-04 00:00:05FORECAST2024287151.40449.67650.5425.9483464000.820.82FF19.404574.404194445.5575583948811.5614818663690.1455805241764161241123.5DRYL
2024-07-03 20:00:04FORECAST2024287148.50646.43647.47131.2719048000.820.82FF16.506576.506194447.6036436693813.9974185329620.090863048311693161241123.5DRYL
2024-07-03 16:00:03FORECAST2024287150.68448.70449.69431.811432000.820.82FF18.684574.684194447.8094685956714.2454604591870.13027600949909161241123.5DRYL
2024-07-03 12:00:04FORECAST2024287144.83442.3543.59231.9717256000.820.82FF12.834556.834194447.8705648783614.3191948046080.045456658462031161241123.5DRYL
2024-07-03 08:00:04FORECAST2024287148.36246.27447.31830.0182888000.820.82FF16.362581.362194447.1243095809813.4219066545030.088608345768195161241123.5DRYL