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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 12, 2024

[ Thursday, July 11, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, July 13, 2024 ]

DAY 286 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/13/2024 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.97°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.715
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 502

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.82 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.82 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 193
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 0

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-07-13 04:00:09OBSERVATION2024286069.7149.9699459.839970000.820.82FF37.71501.71193434.55905685856 00.7149797938620416 42415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 00:00:04FORECAST2024286068.75647.08457.920000.820.82FF36.756500.756194435.1785746132700.683702969188691632415145DRYM
2024-07-12 12:00:01FORECAST2024286068.88247.31858.10000.820.82FF36.882500.882194435.1785746132700.68791676770861632415145DRYM
2024-07-12 09:49:55FORECAST2024286068.947.13858.0190000.820.82FF36.9500.9194435.1785746132700.688516755527611632415145DRYM
2024-07-12 08:00:05FORECAST2024286068.82847.3958.1097.683428000.820.82FF36.828500.828194438.323443537593.36782661913310.686113818605691632413127DRYL
2024-07-12 04:00:46FORECAST2024286069.7147.46258.5867.6131257666667000.820.82FF37.71501.71194438.294945778983.33679454510970.714979793862041642413130DRYL
2024-07-12 00:00:14FORECAST2024286072.19447.58859.8910000.820.82FF40.194503.194193434.5590568585600.788762781416941642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 20:00:01FORECAST2024286071.61846.6759.1440000.820.82FF39.618501.618193434.5590568585600.772720458118431642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 16:00:01FORECAST2024286069.94446.02257.9830000.820.82FF37.944499.944193434.5590568585600.722420374113081642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 12:00:02FORECAST2024286069.848.61459.2070000.820.82FF37.8499.8193434.5590568585600.717852776263571642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 08:00:02FORECAST2024286070.59248.70459.6480000.820.82FF38.592501.592193434.5590568585600.742516675247221642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 04:00:03FORECAST2024286070.1648.54259.3510000.820.82FF38.16502.16193434.5590568585600.729203372891361642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 00:00:04FORECAST2024286070.64649.56860.1070000.820.82FF38.646501.646193434.5590568585600.744156638114971642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 20:00:01FORECAST2024286070.48448.68659.5850000.820.82FF38.484500.484193434.5590568585600.73922046476711642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024286069.81848.57859.1980000.820.82FF37.818499.818193434.5590568585600.718425697286461642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024286069.92648.86659.3960000.820.82FF37.926499.926193434.5590568585600.72185140324061642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 08:00:01FORECAST2024286070.32249.02859.6750000.820.82FF38.322501.322193434.5590568585600.73423581178271642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 04:00:03FORECAST2024286070.05248.93859.4950000.820.82FF38.052501.052193434.5590568585600.725822221636681642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2024286070.41249.51459.9630000.820.82FF38.412498.412193434.5590568585600.737011008017831642315145DRYM
2024-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024286070.10649.65859.8820000.820.82FF38.106497.106193434.5590568585600.727515398260441642315145DRYM
2024-07-09 16:00:02FORECAST2024286069.85449.33459.5940000.820.82FF37.854496.854193434.5590568585600.719569855080241642315145DRYM
2024-07-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024286068.948.14658.5230000.820.82FF36.9493.9193434.5590568585600.688516755527611632315140DRYM
2024-07-09 09:32:51FORECAST2024286069.00848.3858.6940000.820.82FF37.008494.008193434.5590568585600.692106141351271632315140DRYM
2024-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2024286069.27848.21858.7480000.820.82FF37.278496.278193434.5590568585600.700999069731581642315145DRYM
2024-07-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024286070.53850.50460.521NAN000.820.82FF38.538498.538193NANNAN0.740871275927321642315145DRYM
2024-07-09 00:00:02FORECAST2024286071.9650.88261.4210000.820.82FF39.96580.96193434.5590568585600.78232691879781642415150DRYMH
2024-07-08 20:00:01FORECAST2024286072.24851.0861.6640000.820.82FF40.248581.248193434.5590568585600.79023202129661642415150DRYMH
2024-07-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024286072.69850.25261.4750000.820.82FF40.698583.698193434.5590568585600.802240642571261642415150DRYMH
2024-07-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024286071.74449.7360.7370000.820.82FF39.744578.744193434.5590568585600.776287136179991642415150DRYMH
2024-07-08 09:16:47FORECAST2024286071.67251.06261.3670000.820.82FF39.672578.672193434.5590568585600.774252937017771642415150DRYMH
2024-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2024286071.99651.13461.56550.496392000.820.82FF39.996577.996193454.2214006175322.9365419003720.783324339133431642411110DRYL
2024-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2024286071.94252.1662.05149.6878684000.820.82FF39.942578.942193453.9260318817722.5546169354760.781827218679371642411110DRYL
2024-07-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024286070.10650.25260.1790000.820.82FF38.106590.106193434.5590568585600.727515398260441642415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2024286069.27848.97459.1260000.820.82FF37.278590.278193434.5590568585600.700999069731581642415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024286068.07246.81457.4430000.820.82FF36.072588.072193434.5590568585600.660421932082261632415145DRYM
2024-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024286067.02847.357.1640000.820.82FF35.028591.028193434.5590568585600.623704403470521632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-07 08:00:02FORECAST2024286068.01846.90457.4610000.820.82FF36.018593.018193434.5590568585600.658556125894231632415145DRYM
2024-07-07 04:00:07FORECAST2024286068.34247.01257.6770000.820.82FF36.342594.342193434.5590568585600.669691357811081632415145DRYM
2024-07-07 00:00:04FORECAST2024286066.77646.38256.5790000.820.82FF34.776582.776193434.5590568585600.614656091257991632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024286065.85846.54456.2010000.820.82FF33.858580.858193434.5590568585600.581198604771721632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024286066.39846.47256.4350000.820.82FF34.398582.398193434.5590568585600.600967292887981632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-06 12:00:04FORECAST2024286068.16245.21256.6870000.820.82FF36.162581.162193434.5590568585600.663522876272021632415145DRYM
2024-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024286068.14446.0457.0920000.820.82FF36.144581.144193434.5590568585600.662903567592121632415145DRYM
2024-07-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024286069.51248.79459.1530000.820.82FF37.512585.512193434.5590568585600.70861064416591642415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024286069.29645.64457.470000.820.82FF37.296586.296193434.5590568585600.701587767189511642415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024286070.64649.83860.2420000.820.82FF38.646587.646193434.5590568585600.744156638114971642415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024286073.47250.84662.1590000.820.82FF41.472593.472193434.5590568585600.821900213593881642415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 12:00:04FORECAST2024286073.8548.30861.0790000.820.82FF41.85593.85193434.5590568585600.831038200809671642415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 09:58:03FORECAST2024286073.8548.30861.0790000.820.82FF41.85592.85193434.5590568585600.831038200809671642415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 08:00:04FORECAST2024286071.83446.92259.3780000.820.82FF39.834587.834193434.5590568585600.778815194432521642415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024286071.83446.92259.3780000.820.82FF39.834588.834193434.5590568585600.778815194432521642415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024286071.2447.71459.4770000.820.82FF39.24594.24193434.5590568585600.761830748653461642415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 20:00:03FORECAST2024286072.08648.16460.1250000.820.82FF40.086594.086193434.5590568585600.785806314789521642415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024286066.88447.28257.0830000.820.82FF34.884583.884193434.5590568585600.618541905074911632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-04 12:00:04FORECAST2024286066.32647.15656.7410000.820.82FF34.326583.326193434.5590568585600.598345198167381632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-04 08:00:03FORECAST2024286067.0147.87657.4430000.820.82FF35.01585.01193434.5590568585600.623060278372651632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-04 04:00:05FORECAST2024286065.0485057.5240000.820.82FF33.048579.048193434.5590568585600.551172648387371632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-04 00:00:04FORECAST2024286067.1951.47659.33326.2522056000.820.82FF35.19594.19193445.0955361797311.6847395274330.62948584021759163241124.5DRYL
2024-07-03 20:00:04FORECAST2024286067.6447.51657.57831.5252848000.820.82FF35.64598.64193447.1284965396514.0958531956080.64538910032189163241124.5DRYL
2024-07-03 16:00:02FORECAST2024286069.51246.32857.9232.1016136000.820.82FF37.512594.512193447.3490457295714.3606262103390.70861064416591642411110DRYL
2024-07-03 12:00:04FORECAST2024286067.80242.13454.96832.161736000.820.82FF35.802582.802193447.3720347453114.3882612752610.65105449812188163241124.5DRYL
2024-07-03 08:00:04FORECAST2024286068.66641.70255.18430.269504000.820.82FF36.666603.666193446.6468154064713.5197775655330.680678410184151632511110DRYL
2024-07-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024286045.66243.95244.80733.009585781818000.820.82FF13.662583.662193447.6958537022214.7782546869480.044566758001096161241123.5DRYL
2024-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2024286049.04647.55248.2990000.820.82FF17.046578.046193434.5590568585600.0837739778451111612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-02 20:00:04FORECAST2024286053.99652.59253.2940000.820.82FF21.996576.996193434.5590568585600.180609531602071612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-02 16:00:04FORECAST2024286053.67252.14252.9070000.820.82FF21.672562.672193434.5590568585600.172687881474231612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-02 12:00:04FORECAST2024286050.82848.99249.910000.820.82FF18.828557.828193434.5590568585600.112777902489211612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-02 08:00:04FORECAST2024286048.2944.72646.5080000.820.82FF16.29558.29193434.5590568585600.0733149878191841612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-02 07:29:32FORECAST2024286048.2944.72646.5080000.820.82FF16.29558.29193434.5590568585600.0733149878191841612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-02 07:28:59FORECAST2024286048.2944.72646.5080000.820.82FF16.29558.29193434.5590568585600.0733149878191841612415217.5DRYL