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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 11, 2024

[ Wednesday, July 10, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, July 12, 2024 ]

DAY 285 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/12/2024 04:00:39 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.99°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.678
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 488

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.86 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 192
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.47 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.84 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -1

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-07-12 04:00:39OBSERVATION2024285-166.9900249.5699858.2811.040004166667000.860.86FF34.99002487.99002192438.47109575694 4.84072272411960.6780173780527516 31313210.5DRYL
2024-07-12 00:00:04FORECAST2024285-066.23647.2156.7230000.860.86FF34.236487.236193434.5590568585600.652107174339031632315220DRYL
2024-07-11 12:00:01FORECAST2024285-065.3946.6756.030000.860.86FF33.39486.39193434.5590568585600.622172640790771632315220DRYL
2024-07-11 08:00:01FORECAST2024285-066.25447.1256.6870000.860.86FF34.254487.254193434.5590568585600.652734658438771632315220DRYL
2024-07-11 04:00:02FORECAST2024285-066.52447.6657.0920000.860.86FF34.524487.524193434.5590568585600.662095894130941632315220DRYL
2024-07-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024285-167.96447.85857.9110000.860.86FF35.964486.964192433.9371804577800.710232944014421641315220DRYL
2024-07-10 20:00:01FORECAST2024285-167.60447.51657.560000.860.86FF35.604485.604192433.9371804577800.698501585649741631315217.5DRYL
2024-07-10 16:00:02FORECAST2024285-167.60448.00257.8030000.860.86FF35.604485.604192433.9371804577800.698501585649741631315217.5DRYL
2024-07-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024285-167.74848.8358.2890000.860.86FF35.748485.748192433.9371804577800.703219747836621641315220DRYL
2024-07-10 08:00:01FORECAST2024285-168.19848.52458.3610000.860.86FF36.198487.198192433.9371804577800.717741735867481641315140DRYM
2024-07-10 04:00:03FORECAST2024285-168.16249.06458.6130000.860.86FF36.162487.162192433.9371804577800.71659264735771641315140DRYM
2024-07-10 00:00:01FORECAST2024285-168.41449.44258.9280000.860.86FF36.414484.414192433.9371804577800.72458883262151641315140DRYM
2024-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024285-168.0949.78458.9372.4809608000.860.86FF36.09483.09192434.967166481521.07913648932770.714287773109591641314132DRYL
2024-07-09 16:00:02FORECAST2024285-168.05450.05459.0542.4740728000.860.86FF36.054483.054192434.964315861931.07613338284460.713132005294421641314132DRYL
2024-07-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024285-167.33448.25457.7940000.860.86FF35.334481.334192433.9371804577800.689565436870171631315217.5DRYL
2024-07-09 09:32:51FORECAST2024285-167.47848.09257.7850000.860.86FF35.478481.478192433.9371804577800.694345749853811631315217.5DRYL
2024-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2024285-167.85648.27258.0640000.860.86FF35.856482.856192433.9371804577800.706736053682521641315220DRYL
2024-07-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024285-168.30648.36258.334NAN000.860.86FF36.306484.306192NANNAN0.721175500848641641315140DRYM
2024-07-09 00:00:02FORECAST2024285-169.4448.48858.9640000.860.86FF37.44565.44192433.9371804577800.755954768032521641415145DRYM
2024-07-08 20:00:01FORECAST2024285-169.51248.68659.0991.5481688000.860.86FF37.512564.512192434.580673398040.672804239637830.75808128913871641414136DRYL
2024-07-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024285-169.848.6559.2251.423496000.860.86FF37.8566.8192434.528947054950.618550218016930.766486120751661641414136DRYL
2024-07-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024285-168.12648.84858.4870000.860.86FF36.126563.126192433.9371804577800.715441323462671641415145DRYM
2024-07-08 09:16:47FORECAST2024285-168.37849.2858.8290000.860.86FF36.378563.378192433.9371804577800.723453340021611641415145DRYM
2024-07-08 08:00:01FORECAST2024285-167.69449.1958.44254.3250376000.860.86FF35.694561.694192455.0701450245624.7217027390970.70145439465597164141124.5DRYL
2024-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2024285-168.21650.12659.17153.583918000.860.86FF36.216563.216192454.8010226274824.3700207027870.718315439082164141119DRYL
2024-07-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024285-166.57847.7557.1640000.860.86FF34.578575.578192433.9371804577800.663956403982431631415220DRYL
2024-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2024285-165.87646.27456.0750000.860.86FF33.876576.876192433.9371804577800.639472062142961631415220DRYL
2024-07-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024285-164.7645.51855.1390000.860.86FF32.76575.76192433.9371804577800.599382545491271631415220DRYL
2024-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024285-166.05647.8456.9480000.860.86FF34.056580.056192433.9371804577800.645809673525721631415220DRYL
2024-07-07 08:00:02FORECAST2024285-166.88447.5757.2270000.860.86FF34.884580.884192433.9371804577800.674422480945321631415220DRYL
2024-07-07 04:00:07FORECAST2024285-167.11847.53457.3260000.860.86FF35.118582.118192433.9371804577800.682334790259111631415220DRYL
2024-07-07 00:00:04FORECAST2024285-164.81445.33855.0760000.860.86FF32.814571.814192433.9371804577800.601350514639821631415220DRYL
2024-07-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024285-165.15645.84255.4990000.860.86FF33.156571.156192433.9371804577800.613752613489831631415220DRYL
2024-07-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024285-165.78645.42855.6070000.860.86FF33.786571.786192433.9371804577800.636288707923031631415220DRYL
2024-07-06 12:00:04FORECAST2024285-166.59644.27655.4360000.860.86FF34.596568.596192433.9371804577800.664575685730751631415220DRYL
2024-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024285-166.52445.82456.1740000.860.86FF34.524568.524192433.9371804577800.662095894130941631415220DRYL
2024-07-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024285-167.1946.14856.6690000.860.86FF35.19572.19192433.9371804577800.68475291717721631415220DRYL
2024-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024285-167.80244.54656.1740000.860.86FF35.802572.802192433.9371804577800.704980311671781641415222.5DRYL
2024-07-05 20:00:02FORECAST2024285-168.66648.34458.5050000.860.86FF36.666572.666192433.9371804577800.732472530752571641415145DRYM
2024-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024285-168.93649.89259.4140000.860.86FF36.936575.936192433.9371804577800.740791347743311641415145DRYM
2024-07-05 12:00:04FORECAST2024285-167.7348.95658.3430000.860.86FF35.73575.73192433.9371804577800.702631827312251641415222.5DRYL
2024-07-05 09:58:03FORECAST2024285-167.7348.95658.3430000.860.86FF35.73574.73192433.9371804577800.702631827312251641415222.5DRYL
2024-07-05 08:00:04FORECAST2024285-166.84847.64257.2450000.860.86FF34.848571.848192433.9371804577800.673198084690911631415220DRYL
2024-07-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024285-167.47848.27257.87500.0011811030.0011811030.860.861181103FF35.478573.478192433.9371804577800.694345749853811631415220DRYL
2024-07-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024285-169.47650.97260.2240000.860.86FF37.476579.476192433.9371804577800.757019285053081641415145DRYM
2024-07-04 20:00:03FORECAST2024285-169.24250.79260.0170000.860.86FF37.242578.242192433.9371804577800.750055292173371641415145DRYM
2024-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024285-167.71251.69259.7020000.860.86FF35.712572.712192433.9371804577800.702043375846881641415222.5DRYL
2024-07-04 12:00:04FORECAST2024285-168.77451.87260.3230000.860.86FF36.774572.774192433.9371804577800.735816124133031641415145DRYM
2024-07-04 08:00:03FORECAST2024285-169.51252.17860.8450000.860.86FF37.512573.512192433.9371804577800.75808128913871641415145DRYM
2024-07-04 04:00:04FORECAST2024285-170.39453.81662.1050000.860.86FF38.394570.394192433.9371804577800.783299330941521641415145DRYM
2024-07-04 00:00:04FORECAST2024285-171.72654.71663.22129.7703008000.860.86FF39.726582.726192445.8783221698313.2739317711950.81835531217984164141119DRYL
2024-07-03 20:00:04FORECAST2024285-172.89651.0861.98834.8453992000.860.86FF40.896586.896192447.8254188726615.6046554925250.84603647582949164141119DRYL
2024-07-03 16:00:02FORECAST2024285-169.63847.28258.4635.5379384000.860.86FF37.638580.638192448.089175451315.9241655148950.76177842441288164141119DRYL
2024-07-03 12:00:04FORECAST2024285-168.3643.64656.00335.1636248000.860.86FF36.36571.36192447.9466740981915.7514287783970.72288473538083164141119DRYL
2024-07-03 08:00:04FORECAST2024285-169.33245.33857.33533.3657584000.860.86FF37.332591.332192447.2603342203414.9231802534990.75274620301128164141119DRYL
2024-07-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024285-171.07847.28259.1833.218980981818000.860.86FF39.078594.078192447.2041630771814.8556665882510.80176579653214164141119DRYL
2024-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2024285-169.74649.74859.7470000.860.86FF37.746584.746192433.9371804577800.764922637772671641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 20:00:03FORECAST2024285-169.99854.93262.4650000.860.86FF37.998578.998192433.9371804577800.772169342395251641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2024285-169.11649.06459.090000.860.86FF37.116565.116192433.9371804577800.74626210097791641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 12:00:04FORECAST2024285-171.07849.71260.3950000.860.86FF39.078563.078192433.9371804577800.801765796532141641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 08:00:04FORECAST2024285-171.7848.0259.90000.860.86FF39.78565.78192433.9371804577800.819697509907461641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 07:29:32FORECAST2024285-171.7848.0259.90000.860.86FF39.78565.78192433.9371804577800.819697509907461641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 07:28:58FORECAST2024285-171.7848.0259.90000.860.86FF39.78565.78192433.9371804577800.819697509907461641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 04:00:05FORECAST2024285-152.59250.10851.350000.860.86FF20.592558.592192433.9371804577800.185010410701961611415215DRYL
2024-07-02 00:00:03FORECAST2024285-153.40251.78252.5920000.870.87FF21.402562.402192433.9371804577800.206115153085061611415215DRYL
2024-07-01 20:00:05FORECAST2024285-152.84451.40452.1240000.860.86FF20.844554.844192433.9371804577800.191428066596121611415215DRYL
2024-07-01 16:00:03FORECAST2024285-153.6952.08852.8890000.860.86FF21.69562.69192433.9371804577800.213949505234821611415215DRYL
2024-07-01 12:00:04FORECAST2024285-149.17246.7647.9660000.860.86FF17.172553.172192433.9371804577800.111341642626821611415215DRYL
2024-07-01 09:26:30FORECAST2024285-149.17246.7647.9660000.860.86FF17.172553.172192433.9371804577800.111341642626821611415215DRYL
2024-07-01 09:26:05FORECAST2024285-149.17246.7647.9660000.860.86FF17.172553.172192433.9371804577800.111341642626821611415215DRYL
2024-07-01 08:00:03FORECAST2024285-147.82245.53646.6790000.860.86FF15.822550.822192433.9371804577800.0889868013561511611415215DRYL