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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 10, 2024

[ Tuesday, July 9, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 11, 2024 ]

DAY 284 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/11/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 73.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 63.39°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.858
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 41
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 470

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.86 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 191
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -2

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-07-11 04:00:02OBSERVATION2024284-273.3699453.4263.394970000.860.86FF41.36994470.36994191433.31293643104 00.8582829136067816 51315145DRYM
2024-07-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024284-170.53852.28661.4120000.860.86FF38.538467.538192433.9371804577800.793702994265711641315140DRYM
2024-07-10 12:00:01FORECAST2024284-169.63852.68261.160000.860.86FF37.638466.638192433.9371804577800.770005237629461641315140DRYM
2024-07-10 08:00:01FORECAST2024284-170.53853.02461.7810000.860.86FF38.538467.538192433.9371804577800.793702994265711641315140DRYM
2024-07-10 04:00:03FORECAST2024284-170.57453.22261.8980000.860.86FF38.574467.574192433.9371804577800.794619851193491641315140DRYM
2024-07-10 00:00:01FORECAST2024284-272.39253.7863.0860000.860.86FF40.392465.392191433.3129364310400.8377244735391641315140DRYM
2024-07-09 20:00:01FORECAST2024284-272.28453.79863.0415.9485768000.860.86FF40.284464.284191435.781052936632.59227706137840.835340894175861641313124DRYL
2024-07-09 16:00:01FORECAST2024284-271.92453.99662.965.9586136000.860.86FF39.924463.924191435.785185858792.59667553513670.827233137452961641313124DRYL
2024-07-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024284-271.1553.00662.0781.7592952000.860.86FF39.15463.15191434.046770966350.76361640073660.808958563415671641314132DRYL
2024-07-09 09:32:51FORECAST2024284-271.4252.9762.1951.6086448000.860.86FF39.42463.42191433.98406020050.698126201724410.815463551118631641314132DRYL
2024-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2024284-271.70852.9762.3390000.860.86FF39.708463.708191433.3129364310400.822248708208161641315140DRYM
2024-07-09 04:00:03FORECAST2024284-272.1452.84462.492NAN000.860.86FF40.14465.14191NANNAN0.832127774366951641315140DRYM
2024-07-09 00:00:02FORECAST2024284-272.24853.61862.9330000.860.86FF40.248545.248191433.3129364310400.83454136484191641415145DRYM
2024-07-08 20:00:01FORECAST2024284-272.21253.72662.9695.0669528000.860.86FF40.212544.212191435.417609149492.20624047384930.833739334758131641414136DRYL
2024-07-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024284-272.87853.7863.3294.9445432000.860.86FF40.878545.878191435.367082207612.15269134583350.848171870721661641414136DRYL
2024-07-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024284-272.35653.58262.9690.7497512000.860.86FF40.356544.356191433.62607251820.325111668221810.836932448885721641414136DRYL
2024-07-08 09:16:46FORECAST2024284-272.37454.17663.2750.6614864000.860.86FF40.374544.374191433.58923939190.286813385044090.837328773970351641414136DRYL
2024-07-08 08:00:01FORECAST2024284-272.03254.21263.12257.7727768000.860.86FF40.032543.032191455.7764373212726.3314703840610.82969169221329164141119DRYL
2024-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2024284-271.9654.66263.31157.0988644000.860.86FF39.96543.96191455.5329507568826.0104141849990.82805515130658164141119DRYL
2024-07-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024284-270.50252.73661.6190000.860.86FF38.502557.502191433.3129364310400.792783720759991641415145DRYM
2024-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2024284-270.6151.72861.1690000.860.86FF38.61559.61191433.3129364310400.795534288454111641415145DRYM
2024-07-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024284-269.56650.9960.2780000.860.86FF37.566559.566191433.3129364310400.768045895093861641415145DRYM
2024-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024284-270.80851.83661.3220000.860.86FF38.808562.808191433.3129364310400.800520309285671641415145DRYM
2024-07-07 08:00:02FORECAST2024284-270.66451.81861.2410000.860.86FF38.664562.664191433.3129364310400.796901400854031641415145DRYM
2024-07-07 04:00:07FORECAST2024284-270.93452.39461.6640000.860.86FF38.934563.934191433.3129364310400.803654857694221641415145DRYM
2024-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024284-267.42451.33259.3780000.860.86FF35.424556.424191433.3129364310400.705722339127671641415222.5DRYL
2024-07-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024284-267.4651.4459.450000.860.86FF35.46555.46191433.3129364310400.706830503890411641415222.5DRYL
2024-07-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024284-268.52250.52259.5220000.860.86FF36.522554.522191433.3129364310400.738617332243581641415145DRYM
2024-07-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024284-266.23648.86657.5510000.860.86FF34.236551.236191433.3129364310400.668121936818011631415220DRYL
2024-07-06 08:00:02FORECAST2024284-266.3085058.1540000.860.86FF34.308551.308191433.3129364310400.670454765626751631415220DRYL
2024-07-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024284-267.29850.64858.9730000.860.86FF35.298554.298191433.3129364310400.701828626386241641415222.5DRYL
2024-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024284-269.22449.58659.4050000.860.86FF37.224554.224191433.3129364310400.758613436344371641415145DRYM
2024-07-05 20:00:02FORECAST2024284-269.72853.04261.3851.3284824000.860.86FF37.728552.728191433.867374056710.576385170368550.772441359534381641414136DRYL
2024-07-05 16:00:02FORECAST2024284-272.33854.73463.5361.0436144000.860.86FF40.338556.338191433.748642885980.452666329696270.836535498322081641414136DRYL
2024-07-05 12:00:03FORECAST2024284-275.4754.78865.1290000.860.86FF43.47557.47191433.3129364310400.896272569497131651415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 09:58:03FORECAST2024284-275.4754.78865.1290000.860.86FF43.47556.47191433.3129364310400.896272569497131651415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 08:00:04FORECAST2024284-274.7553.99664.3730000.860.86FF42.75553.75191433.3129364310400.88417891912321651415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024284-275.05654.78864.9220000.860.86FF43.056555.056191433.3129364310400.889435394084191651415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 00:00:02FORECAST2024284-277.3656.7567.0550000.860.86FF45.36559.36191433.3129364310400.923623509382511651415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 20:00:03FORECAST2024284-277.01856.89466.9560000.860.86FF45.018558.018191433.3129364310400.919128492307391651415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024284-275.7455.8565.7950000.860.86FF43.74553.74191433.3129364310400.900563653222141651415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 12:00:03FORECAST2024284-273.16655.2264.1930000.860.86FF41.166553.166191433.3129364310400.854147819163281651415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 08:00:03FORECAST2024284-273.54455.16664.3550000.860.86FF41.544552.544191433.3129364310400.861748938252341651415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 04:00:04FORECAST2024284-272.71656.364.5080000.860.86FF40.716548.716191433.3129364310400.844740079883091641415145DRYM
2024-07-04 00:00:04FORECAST2024284-273.92259.37866.6533.7660296000.860.86FF41.922559.922191446.8404731276615.0880286421070.869076178787571651411110DRYL
2024-07-03 20:00:03FORECAST2024284-274.55256.3965.47138.7150776000.860.86FF42.552562.552191448.7274939612417.3725197499630.880684789237361651411110DRYL
2024-07-03 16:00:02FORECAST2024284-273.11253.36663.23938.9716064000.860.86FF41.112560.112191448.8246605934117.491418015260.853039507632451651411110DRYL
2024-07-03 12:00:04FORECAST2024284-273.92250.43262.17738.3169512000.860.86FF41.922551.922191448.5765683004617.1880864770320.869076178787571651411110DRYL
2024-07-03 08:00:03FORECAST2024284-277.37851.9864.67936.6306704000.860.86FF45.378571.378191447.9356215045616.4081821117530.923854732256751651411110DRYL
2024-07-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024284-281.01453.67267.34336.777223381818000.860.86FF49.014572.014191447.9914345420216.4758810612930.960588433993121651411110DRYL
2024-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2024284-276.60453.99665.30000.860.86FF44.604563.604191433.3129364310400.913424276015561651415150DRYMH
2024-07-02 20:00:03FORECAST2024284-276.58659.2767.9280000.860.86FF44.586557.586191433.3129364310400.913169635434241651415150DRYMH
2024-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2024284-268.70251.58460.1430000.860.86FF36.702544.702191433.3129364310400.743824287078031641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 12:00:04FORECAST2024284-271.22250.25260.7370000.860.86FF39.222541.222191433.3129364310400.81070679911751641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 08:00:04FORECAST2024284-270.0748.99259.5310000.860.86FF38.07543.07191433.3129364310400.781565149460311641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 07:29:32FORECAST2024284-270.0748.99259.5310000.860.86FF38.07543.07191433.3129364310400.781565149460311641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 07:28:58FORECAST2024284-270.0748.99259.5310000.860.86FF38.07543.07191433.3129364310400.781565149460311641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 04:00:05FORECAST2024284-271.22248.32659.7740000.860.86FF39.222555.222191433.3129364310400.81070679911751641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 00:00:03FORECAST2024284-269.5350.46859.9990000.870.87FF37.53557.53191433.3129364310400.767062754855871641415145DRYM
2024-07-01 20:00:04FORECAST2024284-268.95449.89259.4230000.860.86FF36.954550.954191433.3129364310400.751022241080661641415145DRYM
2024-07-01 16:00:03FORECAST2024284-273.74254.42864.0850000.860.86FF41.742557.742191433.3129364310400.865621071991841651415150DRYMH
2024-07-01 12:00:04FORECAST2024284-273.68851.00862.3480000.860.86FF41.688552.688191433.3129364310400.864572475888521651415150DRYMH
2024-07-01 09:26:30FORECAST2024284-273.68851.00862.3480000.860.86FF41.688552.688191433.3129364310400.864572475888521651415150DRYMH
2024-07-01 09:26:04FORECAST2024284-273.68851.00862.3480000.860.86FF41.688552.688191433.3129364310400.864572475888521651415150DRYMH
2024-07-01 08:00:03FORECAST2024284-273.14849.6461.3940000.860.86FF41.148552.148191433.3129364310400.853779006099181651415150DRYMH
2024-07-01 04:00:06FORECAST2024284-254.69852.77253.7350000.850.85FF22.698526.698191433.3129364310400.275376236419841621415217.5DRYL
2024-07-01 00:00:03FORECAST2024284-257.97456.15657.06513.9654272000.760.76FF25.974532.974191439.048864820556.1315049588940.38064498290352162141227DRYL
2024-06-30 20:00:04FORECAST2024284-256.354.555.418.8120408000.750.75FF24.3515.3191440.99239822398.29596698787780.32512154316948162141227DRYL
2024-06-30 16:00:04FORECAST2024284-256.354.555.417.950844000.750.75FF24.3521.3191440.648796612637.9100178067810.32512154316948162141227DRYL
2024-06-30 12:00:04FORECAST2024284-249.2847.49848.38916.6769576000.750.75FF17.28511.28191440.139159317627.34018209803960.13981501635264161141226DRYL
2024-06-30 08:00:04FORECAST2024284-249.51448.0248.76716.214490253338000.750.75FF17.514519.514191439.953733969437.13362553136720.14452355530647161141226DRYL