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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 9, 2024

[ Monday, July 8, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 10, 2024 ]

DAY 283 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/10/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 82.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 65.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 73.90°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.981
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 50
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 462

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.86 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 190
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -3

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-07-10 04:00:02OBSERVATION2024283-382.2999265.4999873.899950000.860.86FF50.29992462.29992190432.68631576425 00.9809725873512416 51315145DRYM
2024-07-10 00:00:01FORECAST2024283-278.1757.36267.7661.528212000.860.86FF46.17458.17191433.950568865760.663168466747480.950940220565871651314136DRYL
2024-07-09 12:00:01FORECAST2024283-276.65855.9466.2995.6865376000.860.86FF44.658456.658191435.673113960882.47747154384760.933247903758411651314136DRYL
2024-07-09 09:32:50FORECAST2024283-277.03656.76866.9025.5967968000.860.86FF45.036457.036191435.636131484952.43816690665940.938075549533231651314136DRYL
2024-07-09 08:00:01FORECAST2024283-277.25257.16467.2080000.860.86FF45.252457.252191433.3129364310400.94070967462321651315145DRYM
2024-07-09 04:00:03FORECAST2024283-278.20658.3768.288NAN000.860.86FF46.206458.206191NANNAN0.951310796421121651315145DRYM
2024-07-09 00:00:02FORECAST2024283-380.45658.24469.350.7979272000.860.86FF48.456538.456190433.020821043810.345519091277190.970388201701731651414140DRYM
2024-07-08 20:00:01FORECAST2024283-380.47457.97469.2249.16364000.860.86FF48.474537.474190436.487363406173.99981306280330.970511287213631651413130DRYL
2024-07-08 16:00:01FORECAST2024283-381.03258.6469.8369.0759656000.860.86FF49.032538.032190436.451413943063.96121801901860.974121852939991651413130DRYL
2024-07-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024283-380.22258.98269.6024.8333512000.860.86FF48.222537.222190434.70219707582.10106838587890.968749042033111651414140DRYM
2024-07-08 09:16:46FORECAST2024283-379.80860.22470.0164.7850368000.860.86FF47.808536.808190434.68216844492.07997017231260.965665964456991651414140DRYM
2024-07-08 08:00:01FORECAST2024283-379.84460.1770.00761.8631664000.860.86FF47.844535.844190456.7098943424428.2535201902330.965943594048291651411110DRYL
2024-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2024283-379.66460.8970.27761.2356988000.860.86FF47.664536.664190456.4846906984427.9531590264210.964536842520981651411110DRYL
2024-07-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024283-379.30461.17870.2410000.860.86FF47.304552.304190432.6863157642500.961580817640531651415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2024283-379.95260.20670.0790000.860.86FF47.952553.952190432.6863157642500.966765457156991651415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024283-380.660.74670.6730000.860.86FF48.6554.6190432.6863157642500.971361076051731651415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 12:00:02FORECAST2024283-381.9562.99672.4730000.860.86FF49.95556.95190432.6863157642500.979256249336521651415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 08:00:02FORECAST2024283-381.98661.84471.9150000.860.86FF49.986556.986190432.6863157642500.979438661536021651415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 04:00:06FORECAST2024283-382.18462.45672.320000.860.86FF50.184558.184190432.6863157642500.980417863939011651415150DRYMH
2024-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024283-381.10462.83471.9690000.860.86FF49.104554.104190432.6863157642500.974559655260121651415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024283-380.94261.89871.420000.860.86FF48.942552.942190432.6863157642500.973565775206741651415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024283-380.07861.0770.5740000.860.86FF48.078551.078190432.6863157642500.967703636591981651415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024283-379.1658.24468.7020000.860.86FF47.16550.16190432.6863157642500.960343678248551651415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 08:00:02FORECAST2024283-378.60259.52269.0620000.860.86FF46.602549.602190432.6863157642500.955241588351711651415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024283-380.04260.04470.0430000.860.86FF48.042552.042190432.6863157642500.967437836279481651415150DRYMH
2024-07-06 00:00:02FORECAST2024283-380.52858.31669.4220000.860.86FF48.528549.528190432.6863157642500.970878004746131651415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 20:00:02FORECAST2024283-380.31261.17870.7455.1599816000.860.86FF48.312548.312190434.83753655012.24375368758780.969388132976161651414140DRYM
2024-07-05 16:00:02FORECAST2024283-380.25861.23270.7455.1889112000.860.86FF48.258549.258190434.849518132762.25639553495370.969005986708641651414140DRYM
2024-07-05 12:00:03FORECAST2024283-380.38459.73870.0611.7277896000.860.86FF48.384547.384190433.409781500370.748840913014610.969891600110471651414140DRYM
2024-07-05 09:58:02FORECAST2024283-380.38459.73870.0611.7831888000.860.86FF48.384546.384190433.43292594330.772892739093330.969891600110471651414140DRYM
2024-07-05 08:00:03FORECAST2024283-379.66458.65869.1610000.860.86FF47.664543.664190432.6863157642500.964536842520981651415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024283-380.31260.02670.1690000.860.86FF48.312545.312190432.6863157642500.969388132976161651415150DRYMH
2024-07-05 00:00:02FORECAST2024283-378.7158.04668.3780000.860.86FF46.71546.71190432.6863157642500.956268212129161651415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 20:00:03FORECAST2024283-378.72858.47868.6030000.860.86FF46.728545.728190432.6863157642500.956437460272891651415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024283-377.79258.31668.0540000.860.86FF45.792542.792190432.6863157642500.946912181639331651415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 12:00:03FORECAST2024283-377.93658.78468.360000.860.86FF45.936544.936190432.6863157642500.948476445284741651415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 08:00:02FORECAST2024283-378.1759.34268.7560000.860.86FF46.17544.17190432.6863157642500.950940220565871651415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 04:00:04FORECAST2024283-376.96458.65867.8110000.860.86FF44.964540.964190432.6863157642500.937177563195161651415150DRYMH
2024-07-04 00:00:04FORECAST2024283-380.43860.85470.64638.3054184000.860.86FF48.438551.438190448.0036688822317.1609679812690.970264691281571651411110DRYL
2024-07-03 20:00:03FORECAST2024283-380.04260.33270.18743.0653416000.860.86FF48.042553.042190449.8050348589519.3710074796010.967437836279481651411110DRYL
2024-07-03 16:00:02FORECAST2024283-379.73659.55869.64743.1311712000.860.86FF47.736551.736190449.8297953309119.4016859132790.965105141283231651411110DRYL
2024-07-03 12:00:03FORECAST2024283-372.8652.0762.46542.2063096000.860.86FF40.86542.86190449.4815475543418.9709573555650.867587699407371651411110DRYL
2024-07-03 08:00:03FORECAST2024283-380.29455.36467.82940.8286112000.860.86FF48.294559.294190448.9612690702418.3304650987270.969261185583111651411110DRYL
2024-07-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024283-379.26855.41867.34341.366107381818000.860.86FF47.268556.268190449.1644674893118.580185594260.961274511994081651411110DRYL
2024-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2024283-378.33254.98666.6590000.860.86FF46.332552.332190432.6863157642500.952590277883281651415150DRYMH
2024-07-02 20:00:03FORECAST2024283-377.32457.21867.2710000.860.86FF45.324546.324190432.6863157642500.941567987684221651415150DRYMH
2024-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2024283-374.76853.2464.0040000.860.86FF42.768540.768190432.6863157642500.904660995818661651415150DRYMH
2024-07-02 12:00:04FORECAST2024283-371.2451.33261.2860000.860.86FF39.24535.24190432.6863157642500.829160363051591641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 08:00:04FORECAST2024283-370.4348.3859.4050000.860.86FF38.43538.43190432.6863157642500.807514578337821641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 07:29:32FORECAST2024283-370.4348.3859.4050000.860.86FF38.43538.43190432.6863157642500.807514578337821641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 07:28:58FORECAST2024283-370.4348.3859.4050000.860.86FF38.43538.43190432.6863157642500.807514578337821641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 04:00:05FORECAST2024283-371.4248.25459.8370000.860.86FF39.42549.42190432.6863157642500.833750903783831641415145DRYM
2024-07-02 00:00:02FORECAST2024283-372.44653.09662.7710000.870.87FF40.446553.446190432.6863157642500.858384325230291651415150DRYMH
2024-07-01 20:00:04FORECAST2024283-371.4251.58461.5022.9373632000.860.86FF39.42547.42190433.914372057821.27456410843380.833750903783831641414136DRYL
2024-07-01 16:00:03FORECAST2024283-377.61256.46267.0373.2394512000.860.86FF45.612548.612190434.040150546061.40605188653460.944904343159371651414140DRYM
2024-07-01 12:00:03FORECAST2024283-375.57854.82465.2012.4850184000.860.86FF43.578543.578190433.725851540661.07781672163420.917853298307041651414140DRYM
2024-07-01 09:26:30FORECAST2024283-375.57854.82465.2012.5169984000.860.86FF43.578543.578190433.739186733791.09172083902630.917853298307041651414140DRYM
2024-07-01 09:26:04FORECAST2024283-375.57854.82465.2010000.860.86FF43.578543.578190432.6863157642500.917853298307041651415150DRYMH
2024-07-01 08:00:02FORECAST2024283-374.7554.75264.7510000.860.86FF42.75543.75190432.6863157642500.904351133207311651415150DRYMH
2024-07-01 04:00:06FORECAST2024283-372.24851.58461.9160000.850.85FF40.248537.248190432.6863157642500.853833439089161651415150DRYMH
2024-07-01 00:00:03FORECAST2024283-375.59654.21264.90414.3763456000.760.76FF43.596539.596190438.610424685276.30561504903830.918130044670471651412120DRYL
2024-06-30 20:00:04FORECAST2024283-371.65450.55861.10619.1958008000.750.75FF39.654523.654190440.548468273578.45668063972470.839598641375741641412118DRYL
2024-06-30 16:00:04FORECAST2024283-372.6853.43863.05918.334604000.750.75FF40.68529.68190440.203894529388.07096408545390.863637998307741651412120DRYL
2024-06-30 12:00:04FORECAST2024283-371.27650.88261.07916.9457864000.750.75FF39.276527.276190439.646623932417.45015778063980.830084885079051641412118DRYL
2024-06-30 08:00:03FORECAST2024283-372.06851.00861.53816.489518253338000.750.75FF40.068535.068190439.463114440957.24653504724310.849612161568711651412120DRYL
2024-06-30 04:00:05FORECAST2024283-359.79258.49659.14418.418864145455000.750.75FF27.792533.792190440.237641159848.10867730423850.41734329255215162141227DRYL
2024-06-30 00:00:06FORECAST2024283-351.2650.68450.97211.982332000.790.79FF19.26511.26190437.638866575865.24393419541560.14163243112528161141226DRYL
2024-06-29 20:00:05FORECAST2024283-348.43447.82248.12816.3932304000.810.81FF16.434508.434190439.424360611217.20358478687220.08697127220816161141226DRYL
2024-06-29 16:00:03FORECAST2024283-344.36642.7143.53819.545868000.810.81FF12.366471.366190440.688318458748.61363570173650.038121057858885161131225DRYL
2024-06-29 12:00:05FORECAST2024283-358.4655.95857.20916.1837368000.840.84FF26.46505.46190439.340011105637.11016310544250.36557487741923162141227DRYL
2024-06-29 08:00:03FORECAST2024283-338.71437.41838.06618.815248000.830.83FF6.714454.714190440.396298103678.28616556710250.0094236303436298161131225DRYL