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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 19, 2024

[ Thursday, July 18, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, July 20, 2024 ]

DAY 293 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/20/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.48°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.68°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.849
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 39
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 614

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 200
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 7

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-07-20 04:00:02OBSERVATION2024293771.4799451.8961.6849700000FF39.47994614.47994200438.84664817393 00.849132660018716 52515160DRYH
2024-07-20 00:00:01FORECAST2024293765.91246.74256.32700000FF33.912608.912201439.4499039988800.654826509327131632515225DRYL
2024-07-19 12:00:01FORECAST2024293766.52448.95657.7400000FF34.524609.524201439.4499039988800.680139585500761632515225DRYL
2024-07-19 08:00:02FORECAST2024293766.03847.356.66900000FF34.038609.038201439.4499039988800.660099659450831632515225DRYL
2024-07-19 04:00:03FORECAST2024293765.76847.40856.58800000FF33.768608.768201439.4499039988800.648763106761251632515225DRYL
2024-07-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024293766.7447.0356.88500000FF34.74605.74200438.8466481739300.688884634004251632515225DRYL
2024-07-18 20:00:01FORECAST2024293767.08246.9457.01100000FF35.082607.082200438.8466481739300.702514123098911642515227.5DRYL
2024-07-18 16:00:01FORECAST2024293766.48847.28256.88500000FF34.488606.488200438.8466481739300.678672125827181632515225DRYL
2024-07-18 12:00:01FORECAST2024293767.42448.27257.84800000FF35.424607.424200438.8466481739300.715864556744121642515227.5DRYL
2024-07-18 08:00:02FORECAST2024293767.7347.96657.84800000FF35.73607.73200438.8466481739300.727561614742811642515227.5DRYL
2024-07-18 04:00:30FORECAST2024293766.99247.78657.38900000FF34.992605.992200438.8466481739300.698953869711761632515225DRYL
2024-07-18 00:00:24FORECAST2024293767.11848.07457.596000.0300.03FF35.118601.118200438.8466481739300.703932826591451642515227.5DRYL
2024-07-17 20:00:03FORECAST2024293767.7348.97458.352000.0400.04FF35.73603.73200438.8466481739300.727561614742811642515227.5DRYL
2024-07-17 16:00:01FORECAST2024293768.46848.75858.613000.0400.04FF36.468603.468200438.8466481739300.754752283113591642515155DRYH
2024-07-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024293768.97247.37258.172000.0400.04FF36.972604.972200438.8466481739300.77244897081741642515155DRYH
2024-07-17 08:00:18FORECAST2024293768.4547.357.875000.0200.02FF36.45605.45200438.8466481739300.754106880785531642515155DRYH
2024-07-17 04:00:27FORECAST2024293768.79247.04857.92000.0200.02FF36.792604.792200438.8466481739300.766212505579941642515155DRYH
2024-07-17 00:00:19FORECAST2024293769.13448.07458.604000.0200.02FF37.134604.134200438.8466481739300.777980915128181642515155DRYH
2024-07-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024293769.13448.34458.739000.0100.01FF37.134602.134200438.8466481739300.777980915128181642515155DRYH
2024-07-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024293769.20648.43458.82000.0100.01FF37.206602.206200438.8466481739300.780414740905621642515155DRYH
2024-07-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024293768.84647.87658.36100000FF36.846599.846200438.8466481739300.768093311805021642515155DRYH
2024-07-16 08:00:16FORECAST2024293767.69447.7557.72200000FF35.694597.694200438.8466481739300.726197979305151642415225DRYL
2024-07-16 04:00:09FORECAST2024293767.67647.73257.70400000FF35.676599.676200438.8466481739300.725514899671881642515227.5DRYL
2024-07-16 00:00:17FORECAST2024293768.61248.36258.48700000FF36.612603.612200438.8466481739300.759882607859971642515155DRYH
2024-07-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024293768.4547.62458.037000.0100.01FF36.45600.45200438.8466481739300.754106880785531642515155DRYH
2024-07-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024293767.9147.19257.551000.0100.01FF35.91600.91200438.8466481739300.734328848430681642515227.5DRYL
2024-07-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024293768.28848.32658.30700000FF36.288601.288200438.8466481739300.748257527130041642515155DRYH
2024-07-15 08:00:33FORECAST2024293767.87447.98457.92900000FF35.874599.874200438.8466481739300.73298224136221642515227.5DRYL
2024-07-15 04:00:10FORECAST2024293767.17247.53457.35300000FF35.172598.172200438.8466481739300.706055045127751642415225DRYL
2024-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024293767.80248.21858.0100000FF35.802595.802200438.8466481739300.730278739625411642415225DRYL
2024-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024293769.33248.23658.78400000FF37.332600.332200438.8466481739300.78463692084281642515155DRYH
2024-07-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024293770.35850.23460.29600000FF38.358600.358200438.8466481739300.81722832246411642515155DRYH
2024-07-14 12:00:04FORECAST2024293769.24249.80259.52200000FF37.242597.242200438.8466481739300.781625895282811642415150DRYMH
2024-07-14 08:00:03FORECAST2024293767.04647.53457.2900000FF35.046590.046200438.8466481739300.701092326527131642415225DRYL
2024-07-14 04:01:06FORECAST2024293766.4747.6657.06500000FF34.47587.47200438.8466481739300.677937347645261632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024293768.5449.13658.83800000FF36.54594.54200438.8466481739300.757324773782291642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 20:00:04FORECAST2024293769.76448.7459.25200000FF37.764597.764200438.8466481739300.798751238646541642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024293770.95248.9259.93600000FF38.952600.952200438.8466481739300.834610541943641642515155DRYH
2024-07-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024293771.61849.44260.5300000FF39.618601.618200438.8466481739300.852786233518791652515160DRYH
2024-07-13 08:00:18FORECAST2024293768.21646.4957.35300000FF36.216593.216200438.8466481739300.745634459221011642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 04:00:12FORECAST2024293768.1846.45457.31700000FF36.18591.18200438.8466481739300.744317581090481642415150DRYMH
2024-07-13 00:00:17FORECAST2024293765.04846.07655.56200000FF33.048578.048200438.8466481739300.617903441068061632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024293766.2946.16656.22800000FF34.29576.29200438.8466481739300.670551707448061632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024293765.8445.96855.90400000FF33.84578.84200438.8466481739300.651799655583011632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024293770.37649.60459.9900000FF38.376587.376200438.8466481739300.817771217491371642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 09:49:58FORECAST2024293770.37649.60459.9900000FF38.376587.376200438.8466481739300.817771217491371642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 08:00:22FORECAST2024293770.03448.97459.50400000FF38.034588.034200438.8466481739300.807284591214921642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 04:00:48FORECAST2024293771.4249.08260.25100000FF39.42597.42200438.8466481739300.84752784546011642415150DRYMH
2024-07-12 00:00:16FORECAST2024293773.07647.42660.251000.0100.01FF41.076603.076200438.8466481739300.88776088236331652515160DRYH
2024-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2024293770.68246.95858.82000.0100.01FF38.682596.682200438.8466481739300.826846119593081642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024293770.68246.95858.8200000FF38.682584.682200438.8466481739300.826846119593081642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024293772.57248.84860.71000.0200.02FF40.572585.572200438.8466481739300.876410172026991652415155DRYH
2024-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024293770.82647.73259.279000.0200.02FF38.826588.826200438.8466481739300.831015532364861642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 04:00:04FORECAST2024293770.48450.01860.25100.0153543390.02535433900.025354339FF38.484591.484200438.8466481739300.821007434772351642415150DRYMH
2024-07-11 00:00:07FORECAST2024293769.06250.0959.57600.0153543390.02535433900.025354339FF37.062590.062200438.8466481739300.775531789049181642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024293764.52649.83857.18200.0153543390.02535433900.025354339FF32.526580.526200438.8466481739300.595038942755561632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 16:00:04FORECAST2024293765.58850.66658.12700.0102362260.01023622600.010236226FF33.588574.588200438.8466481739300.641130461769321632415222.5DRYL
2024-07-10 12:00:04FORECAST2024293769.94446.32858.13600000FF37.944577.944200438.8466481739300.804464968297981642415150DRYMH
2024-07-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024293771.94247.3959.66600000FF39.942576.942200438.8466481739300.861126478919611652415155DRYH
2024-07-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024293753.65451.67452.66400000FF21.654563.654200438.8466481739300.15916860181781612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2024293751.27849.51450.39600000FF19.278567.278200438.8466481739300.102254850004771612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-09 20:00:03FORECAST2024293748.90247.35448.12800000FF16.902551.902200438.8466481739300.0617758073935331612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024293748.95646.92247.93900000FF16.956552.956200438.8466481739300.0625311201542741612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-09 12:00:04FORECAST2024293746.36444.58245.47300000FF14.364546.364200438.8466481739300.0336117864389461612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-09 09:32:52FORECAST2024293746.36444.58245.47300000FF14.364547.364200438.8466481739300.0336117864389461612415217.5DRYL
2024-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024293746.36444.58245.47300000FF14.364549.364200438.8466481739300.0336117864389461612415217.5DRYL